g localisation · fear, uncertainty, debt, debt-stress, climate change, unemployment and trust. 8 9...

ConneCtivity

LoCaLisation

GLobaLisation

Cooperation

infLation

Happiness

Debt

DefLation

Introduction 5

Trendblend2009+ 6-7

TheTenTrends 8-18

100Wordstodescribe2009 19

Thingsthataresupposedtobedead 20-21

TheWorldinNumbers 22-23

PastTrends 24

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“ Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward

those who are not regarded as members of the herd. ”

BertrandRussell

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Welcome to 2009. This report is an annual review of the year ahead and is generally fairly easy to put together. Not this year. The problem has been events. More specifically, the speed at which things continue to change. Impossible really is nothing these days.

Last year two key themes highlighted in the introduction were the question of who would inherit the US economy (“an economy balanced on a knife edge”) and the Beijing Olympics (“a coming out party for what will one day be the largest and most powerful nation on earth… Maybe”). This year two of the biggest questions are whether or not Barack Obama can rebuild America’s shattered economy and reputation worldwide and whether or not China will follow America into the economic twilight zone.

One major trend that flows from all this uncertainty is anxiety, which will in turn drive an interest in safety, security and permanence. People are no longer in the mood to experiment and we can therefore expect the return of simplicity, no-frills, back to basics, seriousness, saving and fiscal conservatism.

The other thought that flows from current events is the degree to which events follow historical or predictable patterns. One of the main reasons that the world is in the mess it is today is that some people forgot about cycles. People borrowed heavily to purchase what they wanted or used paper profits created by real estate to support lifestyles that were unsustainable, particularly if they had an eye on economic cycles or the performance of real estate over a long enough period. Therefore, perhaps 2009 will be the year when people finally say enough to the pervasive influence of materialism and reconnect with some of the simpler pleasures of life. Perhaps we will see a subtle cultural shift from ‘me’ to ‘we.’ We’ll see. If the economy picks up sooner than expected I’d imagine that most people will just dust themselves off and carry on as though nothing ever happened.

Richard Watson, January 2009.

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This year’s edition of Ten Trends is printed in black & white in line with one of the trends for 2009, namely back to basics. Hopefully 2010 will turn out to be more colourful.

SocietyGlobal Risk

Dangerous currents

Possible red herring

* Size of circle denotes likely impact of trend (hey, it’s just an educated guess).

Technology

Economy

Environment

Politics

Business

Family

Media

Trend Blend 2009+a m a p o f t i m e a n d t i d e

L E G E N D

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1264

5783

23

4

5

6

7

1

8

/gas price spikes

Alternative energy bubble

Outsourcing backlash

Low cost competition

Resource shortages

Skills shortages

Increased regulation

Asset price uncertainty

Networked risk

Rehiring of retirees

Energy insecurity

Web 2.0 campaigning

Immigration backlash

Green taxes

ProtectionismVirtual protests

EMF radiation

Rapid growth oftransnational crime

Map by Richard Watson with help from Ben. More at www.nowandnext.com

Credit default swaps

Collapse of nuclear non-proliferation treaty

Global supply chain disruption

Electricity shortages

People taking trend maps too seriously

Slowdown in growth

Industry consolidation

Growth of autocracy

Rising protectionism

Globalisation in retreat

Fall of US Empire

De-leveraging

Virtualisation

Simplicity

Data security

Energy storage

Telepresence

Device convergence

Cloud computing

Merchantilism

Pensions funding

Prediction markets

Shorter product lifecycles

Re-regulation

Inflation

2-speed economies

Sovereign wealth funds

Deflation

Allowable luxuries

Debt stress

Single person households

IMBYs

Extended financial families

Renting things

Home cooked meals

Unplugging

Middle class unrest

Gated communitiesBack to basics

AgeingGRIN tech

Web 2.0

Green IT

Iran

Utility

Authenticity

Trust

Islands of Tranquility

Enoughism

Old skool

We not meSearch forcontrol

Space weather

Power Shift Eastwards

Climatechange

crisisDigitalisation

Anxiety

Debt

GlobalConnectivity

Sustainability

Uncertainty

Obesity

Volatility

Facebook fatigue

Flight to quality

Seriousness

e-books

Fantasy & escape

Micro-boredom

Digital diets

Digital privacy

Influenza pandemic

Severe heatwaves

Return of SARS

Religious and ethnic tension

Increased societalappetite for risk

Food shortages

Nicole Kidman winsanother Oscar

Majorinternet

failure

Criticalinfrastructure

attack

Major earthquake ineconomic centre

Severe water shortages

Storytelling

Too muchinformation

Online video

Short formats

Skimming

Urbanisation

Green cities

Nuclear power

Energy dashboards

Negawatts

Peak landfill

Declining water quality

Bio-fuel backlash

Eco-Cynics

Vertical agriculture

Nano-solar

Wind powerClean coal

Oi

Collapse of US dollar

CSR

Transparency

Income inequality

Pakistan

l

This map is published under a Creative Commons Attribution - ShareAlike License.

Robotics

Gesture based computing

Mobile computing

Geo-fencing

Wearelivinginanxioustimes.FirstitwasY2Kandthen9/11.Morerecentlywe’vebeenworriedbythethreatof a global flupandemic,SARS,DeepVeinThrombosis, rogueasteroids, climate changeandnow1929returning.Runninginparalleltoallthis,trustinlargeinstitutions(especiallygovernmentandbigbusiness)hasallbutevaporated(orwe’vebecomemorecynicalabouttheabilityoftheseinstitutionstotellusthetruthordeliver).Theresultisanewageofanxiety.Peopleareworriedaboutjobs,homes,savingsandtheplanet.Thisinsecurityistosomeextentgenerational,butthereisageneralfeelingthattheworldhasspunoutofcontrolandthatsomeoneistoblame.

Peoplearelookingforscapegoatsbuttheyarealsolookingforsafety,reassuranceandcontrol.Thismeansthatpeoplewill tendtostickwith individualsand institutionsthattheyknowandtrust.Hence individualsmoving out of shares towards ‘safe savings’ such as gilts and low risk bonds. People will stay in jobsand education for longer and will aspire to public sector jobs due to perceived security. Finally, peoplewillmoveawayfromsillyspendingonthingssuchasorganicwater,althoughtherewillstillbeamarketforpermissibleindulgences.

We may also see a demand for salary and profit caps in certain industries and there could also beanincreaseinadhoccampaignstargetingspecificorganizationsthatpeoplefeelareguiltyofbreachingnewbehaviouralnorms.

Intermsofopportunities,productsandservicesthatgiveasenseofsecurityorreducestresswilldowell.Thiscouldbeprovidedbytechnologybutgenerallyit’sreassurancewithahumanfaceattachedthatpeopleareafter.Nostalgicproductsandexperiencesthattapintothe(largelyfalse)beliefthatweoncelivedinsaferandmorecertaintimeswillalsodowell

Fear,uncertainty,debt,debt-stress,climatechange,unemploymentandtrust.


1. Fear&Loathing

2. De-Leveraging

3. BacktoBasics

4. DigitalDiets

5. Enoughism

6. IMBY’s

7. Seriousness

8. TheHumanBrain

9. Eco-Wars

10. FearoftheUnknown

Bye bye complex financial products – at least for a while. Following the sub-prime fiasco, simplicity,transparencyandproductsthatarenotover-engineeredoroverlycomplexareback invogue.Sotooarelocallenderswherewhatyouseeiswhatyouget.Butthisswingbacktotheoldskooldoesn’tjustapplytofinancialservices.Uncertaintyandanxietyaredrivingpeopletowardspeopleandproductsthattheyknowandunderstandinallspheres.

Ifpeoplearestrappedforcashtheywilldomanyofthethingsthattheydidthelasttimetherewasamajorrecession.Thereforeexpecttoseearesurgenceoffreshhomecookedmeals(becausecookingfromscratchcosts lessmoneybutalsobecausehomecooking tends topull the immediate familyback together).Weshouldalsoseemorepeoplegrowingtheirownfood,mendingtheirownclothes,cleaningtheirownhousesandfixingtheirowncars.Atleastwewillforawhileuntilpeoplerememberhowdifficultandfrustratingsomeoftheseactivitiesareandreverttopreviousbehaviour.

Productsthatarebasicinthesenseofbeingstrippeddownorsimpletounderstandanduse.Forinstance,own brand or house brand products in supermarkets will do well as will supermarket brands that arethemselvesbasic(e.g.AldiandLidl).Wemayalsoexperienceanincreasedlevelofinterestinold-fashioned,ecologicallyresponsibleitemssuchashand-poweredlawnmowers,washinglinesandbicycles.Havingsaidthis,iftheeconomiccrisisisshort-livedpeoplewillrevertbacktotypeprettyquickly.

Nostalgia,simplicity,localisation,provenance,no-frills,austerity,valueformoney.

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Whatcheapcreditand irrationalexuberancegiveth,tighter lendingcontrolsanduncertaintytakethaway.Growthisslowingdownandinstitutionsandindividualswillgetridofasmuchdebtasfastastheycan.Thelastdecadesawanunprecedentedlevelofspending,mostofitdrivenbycheapmoneyandtheattitudethatwhatwentupno longerwentdown.The impactoffinancialderegulationand innovationalsomeantthatpeoplewereofferednewwaystoowemoremoneytomorepeople.Noneofthisisnecessarilyaproblemifyouhaveajob,butifyoudon’tthingscanturnverynastyveryquicklyindeed.

Organisationswill reducetheirdependencyondebt.Thismeansthat theywillsellassetsalthoughbysodoingtheywillinadvertentlypushthevalueoftheseassetsevenlower.Forindividualssellingassetsismoreproblematicbecausetheirlargestassetisgenerallytheirhome.Hencetheonlyrealstrategyistospendlessbycuttingbackonnon-essentials.Thismeansbuyingless,fixingthingsratherthanthrowingthemawayandpossiblyrentingthingsratherthanbuyingthemoutright.

Intermsofbusiness,expecttoseemoreconsolidationwithmarketsbecomingmorepolarisedbetweentheverylargeandtheverysmall.Inthepublicsector,expecttoseegovernmentdebtsoar,resultinginavarietyofu-turnsoverspendingpledgesinareassuchasclimatechange,education,healthandtransport.

Thedebtbingeisnotgoingawaycompletelybutit’slikelythatweareenteringaneweraofthriftanddelayedgratification.Themainforcedrivingthisistheeconomybuttheenvironmentisalsoafactor.

Industry consolidation, deferred gratification, cost savings, clothing swaps, second-hand stores, garagesalesandsellingonauctionsites.

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People are becoming alarmed about the health of the planet and especially the pervasive influence ofmaterialismupon their lives.Somepeople have thereforedecided to takepersonal responsibility anddosomethingaboutit.Enoughismisaboutswitchingthingsoff,buyinglessstuffandseekingtoreconnectwiththesimplerpleasuresoflife.Itisaworldwherequalitycounts.Peoplearestillpreparedtopayforthingsbuttheyexpectthemtolast.ThetrendisbestsummedupbyTomHodgkinsoninhisbook‘HowtoBeFree’,whotalksabouttheshiftfromfindingoutwhatyouwanttodiscoveringwhatyoucandowithout.

Organizations will become increasingly values-driven. They will also become more connected with theircommunities,beitageographicareaorthewidercommunityofemployees,customersandsuppliers.

Peoplewillbespendingmoretimewiththeirimmediatefamilyandfriends.Thisisanopportunitybecausepeoplewillbeinterestedinthingsthatenablethisortapintotheneedtoslowthingsdownalittle.However,using technology togivepeoplesuperficialor remoteaccess is liable tobackfire.Hencechildcare robots(currentlyavailableinJapan)willnotbeaninstanthit.

Down-shifting,work/lifebalance,searchformeaningandspirituality.

Peoplearedrowningindigitaldata.Forexample,accordingtoanAustraliansurvey,63%ofpeoplefeelthattheyareoverloadedwith informationand40%havedifficultyrememberingmorethan3phonenumbers.Peoplearealsorealisingthatbeinglessconnectedcanactuallybeagoodthing.Forexample,somepeopleare starting to findout that youcanhave toomanydigital friends.Hencenot responding to friendshipsrequestsordroppingoutofsocialnetworkswillbecomecommonplace.Similarlypeopleareslowlywakinguptothefactthattheywasteanextraordinaryamountoftimeandmoneyontechnologythatdoesn’tmaketheirlivesanyeasierorbetter.Thusunpluggingonagenerallevelwillbecomepopularasawayofrebalancingfranticandfreneticlives.

Inmanyinstancesthistrendwillbedrivenbynecessity.Itisawayofsavingmoneyorreclaimingpersonalorfamilytime.However,thereisalsoanaspirationalelementtothistrend.Inthesamewaythatowningamobilephonewasonceseenasamarkofsophistication,notowningone(orusingonesparingly)isbecomingasignalthatapersonhassortedouttheirprioritiesorhasrebalancedtheirlife.Peoplemayalsodecidethatinsomeinstancestheoldwayswerethebetterwaysandwillstarttouseproductsandservicesthatdonotrequirepowerorareanantidotetofastdigitalalternatives.

Expecttoseeaninterestinanalogueproducts.Forexample,fountainpens,wet-filmphotography,landlinetelephones,paperdiariesandvinylrecords.

NoemailFridays,noBlackberryBankHolidays,FacebookFatigue,MySpaceMalaise,unpluggedvacations(camping,canoeingandwalkingetc).


Intimesofseriouseconomicupheavalindividualshavetwooptions.Thefirstoptionistoburyonesheadinthesandandgosomewhereelse(everythingfromescapistmoviestovirtualworlds).Thesecondrouteistofindoutwhat’sgoingon.SeriousnewspapersandmagazinessuchasTheFinancialTimesandTheEconomistareseeing increases incirculationand theyarebeing joinedbyaplethoraof steadfastlyold-fashionedink-on-dead-treetitlessuchasProspect,TheWeeklyStandard,Harper’sandTheMonthly.Thistrendisprimarilyevidentwithinnewspapersandmagazinesbutthesameaffectcanbeseenwithnon-fictionbooks.

Thereisundoubtedlyalargemarketforinformationandentertainmentthatisdumbeddownandservedinsmallbite-sizedchunks.However,thereisalsoalargemarketfortheanalysisofcomplexissuesandideas.Outsideofmediaexpectthingstobecomemoreseriousinotherareastoo.Fashionwillbecomesmarterandmoreformal(atleastatwork)andhaircutswillgetshorter.

Physicalobjectsandliveexperiencestailoredtoaneedtoknow.

Documentaries,literaryfestivals,publicdebates,seriouspolitictions.

7. Seriousness

Peoplearebecomingdisillusionedwiththeeffectsofglobalisation.Thuswearestartingtoseethedevelopmentofcampaignstomakeproductionandconsumptionmorelocal.HenceIMBYs(InMyBackYard).ThistrendistheoppositeofthepreviousNIMBYtrend(NotInMyBackYard).

Thislinkswithenvironmentalconcernsbutisalsodrivenbyadesiretocontroloutcomes.Thus,inthesamewaythatpeopleoncecampaignedtostopthingshappeninglocally,therewillnowbecampaignstoensurethateverythingfromfactoriestoschoolsarebuiltaroundthecornerandsupportthelocalcommunity.

Thetrendismostevidentwithfoodwherelocalisationandprovenancearealreadyimportantbutthetrendwillmovebeyondthistoaffecteverythingfrompoliticstobusiness.

An interest inall things local, includingprotests.Addapinchofausterityand thriftcausedbyeconomiccircumstancesandthistrendcouldbeacatalystforamajorshifttowardslocalinteractions.Alsoexpecttoseeboomindomestictravelandlocalholidays.

Life-Storylabellingofproductsandserviceswhentheseproductsandservicesare‘homegrown’.

Economicprotectionism,localisation,nationalism,regulationandprovenance.


Haveyounoticedhowglobalwarminghasturnedintoareligiouscrusadeoflate?Ononesidewehavetheevangelicalbelieversthattalkinapocalyptictermsaboutthe‘endofdays.’Opposingthemarethehereticswhodenyanythingishappeningorinsistthatitisstilluncertainwhysomethingishappeningorwhattheconsequenceswillbe.Bothsidesusearmiesoffactstofighttheirbattlesalthoughbothsidesseemtoforgetthatthese‘facts’arehistoricalandthatanyforecastisjustapredictionandnotanempiricalobservation.Somewhereinthemiddleofthisarethevastmajorityofpeoplewhosuspectthatsomethingsignificantisgoingonbutaren’ttoosurewhat,duetothecomplexityofthedebate.

Thedebatewillcontinuetopolarisealongtheoldlinesofleftandright.Radicalenvironmentalistswillarguethataccumulatingwealthismorallysuspectandwillpursueananti-consumeristandanti-capitalistagendathat includespopulationcontrol,highertaxation,newregulatoryregimesandradicalchangestopersonalattitudesandbehaviour.Theothersidewillincreasinglyarguethatthemindofmanisattimestakenoverbyanxietyandapprehensionwhenphysicalenemiesdisappear.

Onthebalanceofprobabilityclimatechangeisarealissueandorganizationsshouldbedoingsomethingaboutit,ifonlyfromariskmanagementperspective.InotherwordsweowetheEarththebenefitofthedoubt.Havingsaidthisthereareworsecatastrophesimaginableandtheremightbebetterwaysofspendingtrillionsofdollarsifyourfundamentalobjectiveiseithertosavethemostlivesortoimprovethequalityoflifeforthegreatestnumberofpeople.

Globalwarming,globalcooling,greenwashing,declineoftrust(oratleastanincreaseincynicism),carbonlabelling,carbonfootprintsandcarbonoffsets

Withneuro-enhancementaroundthecornerthebrainisbecomingsexyandissettobecomethemedia’sfavouriteorganin2009.Thislinkstodevelopmentsinneuroscience,mostnotablyMRIandfMRItechnology.Italso linkswith the fact thatdigital interfacesarestarting topenetratehumanfleshandbrain implantsare being developed to treat serious diseases such as epilepsy. The starting point for this trendwill bedevelopments in technology, especially within medicine, but the impactions go beyond treating diseasetowardswhoownswhat’sinsideyourownhead.

Expecttoseearushofbooksontheinnerworkingofthehumanbrainandhowthisrelatestoeverythingfromourappreciationofmusictoworkandhumanrelationships.Onthelessserioussidetherewillbearashofproductsandservicesaimedathelpingpeopletoexercisetheirbrainandalsoabunchofpseudosciencesurroundingtheuseofbrainscanstounderstandcustomerbehaviourandrefinecommercialmessages.

Expecttoseemoreseriousmedicaldiagnosisandmonitoringproducts.Alsotheemergenceofmind-controlinterfaces(productsthatpeoplecancontroljustbythinkingaboutit).Therewillalsobeacontinuinginterestinbrain-enhancingfoods,brain-enhancingdrugsandbrain-enhancinggames,especiallyfortheover-55s.

Braintraininggames,neuroethics,neuroplasticityandcollectiveintelligence.


Anxiety Austerity Authenticity Badoo Basic Blue Busy Change Classic Cloud

Community Compliance Connectivity Control Conviction Core Crisis Debt Deflation

Demur Earthy Eco Enough Ergomorphic Eviction Experience Family Factual Fear

Free Frugal Gardening Grateful Green Haptics Home Honest Hopeful Indebted

Inflation Infrastructure Intimacy Juncture Keepsake Local Meta Natural

OutlierOverwhelmed Pamphlet Payoff Polarisation Privacy Protectionism

Prudery Purpose Quality Reassurance Recession Recovery Redundancy

Regulation Resentment Resignation Renovation Restraint Risk Saving Security

Serious Shaken Shortage Shredding Simplicity Slow Smart Sparkle Spike

Stress Stagflation Struggling Surviving Technophobic Telepresence Thrift

Tired Traditional Trustworthy Uncertain Unfashioning Unplugged

Unwind Unwired Virtual Volatile Water White

Xenophobic Yearning Zeitgeist

.

Thepointofthistrendistopushhomethepointthatthefutureisultimatelyunknowable.Yesyoucanseegeneralpatternsandmakewell-educatedspeculationsaboutnextweekornextyearbasedpartlyonpasteventsandhumanbehaviour.But ifhistoryteachesusanything it issurelythattotallyunexpected ideas,inventionsandevents(theso-called‘BlackSwans’in2008speak)haveahabitofruininglogicalandwelllaid-outplans.Uncertaintyalsolinkswithideassurroundinganxietyandcomplexityanditisinterestingtonotethatduringpreviousperiodsofrapidchangeandupheaval,superstitionanddogmaticreligiousbeliefsbothflourished.

Anythingcanhappen.Havingsaidthisthereareclearlythingsweknow.Therearealsothingsweknowwedon’tknowandtherearethingswedon’tknowthatwedon’tknow.Trend#10isaboutthesecondgroupofunknowns(highlyimprobablebuthighlyimpactfuleventsthattendnottofollowtrendlinesorlogic-thoseBlackSwansagain).

Thistrend(OK,it’sreallymoreofanideaorobservation)isabouthowwhensomethingbigandunexpectedhappens(e.g.afinancialcrisis)weoverreactaftertheevent.Weassumethatthesamethingwillhappenagainandmakeplanstostopit.Forexample,ifterroriststakeoversomeplanesandflythemintobuildingsweassumethattheywilldoitagain,inthesamewayandpossiblyevenonthesamedate.Thebiglinkhereiswithouraversiontoriskandthe(largelyfalse)ideathatwecantotallycontrolriskorliveina100%riskfreeenvironment.

Anythingcanwork.Anythingcan’t.

Almostanything.


Ifyoustilldoubttheexistenceofcyclesconsiderthefollowinglistwhichappropriatelyenough,includesbotheconomiccyclesandbicycles.

PeopleforgetthatabouttenyearsagoAppleComputer(theyusedthewordComputerinthosedays)wasalmostbankrupt.SteveJobsgotkickedoutofthecompanyandmostanalystsregardedthecompanyasanalsoranthatwouldeventuallyrunoutofsteam.SteveJobsthencamebackasCEO

inwhatmustsurelybeoneofthegreatestsecondactsinbusinesshistoryandAppleistransformingitselfintoaglobalconsumerelectronicscolossus.

Twentyyearsagothetheatrewassupposedtobedeadandnothingwasmoreunpopularthanmusicals.Nowyoucan’tgetaseatforMamaMia,CatsorWeWillRockYouforloveormoney.

TheEndofHistory?Hardly.Aspredictionsgo,thisone,fromFrancisFukayamaprovedtobemorethanalittleoffthemark.

Yestheyarebadforyouandwestoppedeatinganddrinkingdairyproductsforawhilebutnowwehavemuchbiggerthingstoworryaboutoverourskinnylatte.

Whenrockbandssplituptheyarenotsupposedtocomeback.Notanymore.AwaveofboomerandGenXnostalgiahasrebuiltthelostcareersofbandsasdiverseasTheEagles,LedZeppelin,TakeThat,BlurandTheSexPistols.

Thehumblepedalcycleisaclassicexampleofaconsumermarketthatmostpeoplehadwrittenoffasamarketinterminaldecline.However,someoneinCaliforniastartedtoplayaroundandsooninventedthemountainbike.Thishappenedataboutthesametime

thattheexerciseandfitnessboomtookoffinthe1980sandheyprestothemarketwasreborn.Proof,ifyouneedit,thatthereisnosuchthingasatiredanddecliningmarket–onlytiredanddecliningmarketers.

RelationsbetweentheUSandRussiathawedoutforawhilebuttheyarenowstartingtofreezeoveragain.Asfordictatorsandauthoritariangovernmentstheyneverwentaway.

ItwaswidelyassumedthatphonebankingandthenonlineandInternetbankingwouldkillphysicalbankbranches.Notso.Therearenow10%morephysicalbanksintheUSthantherewere10

yearsago.Gofigure.

No,Idon’tunderstandeither.

Foodinflation,Energyinflation,Generalinflation.Theyareallcoming.Trustme.

Mostoftheworldisslippingintorecessionbutatthesametimeinflationisrisingalmostuniversally.Stagflationwaslastseeninthe1970sandwaswidelythoughttobeadeadeconomicphenomenon.

Wellyou’rereadingthisaren’tyou?Maybephysicalmediawillbedeadinthefuturebutnotforaverylongtimeyet.

Somepeoplethoughtthatreligionwouldbedeadbynow,killedeitherbyascientifictheorythatexplainedcreationorbytheinternet,underwhichitwouldbeimpossibletohidefrominformationthatchallengedyourbeliefs.

Neitherhashappened. Indeed in timesof insecurity,complexity,andanxietyan increasingnumberofpeoplearetuningtowardsonefaithoranotherbecausetheyofferbothcertaintyandsimplicity.

MargaretThatcheroncefamouslyproclaimedthatsocietyisdead.Itisn’t.

Thepageantwasdoneawaywithbyfeministsbutwasbewilderinglyresurrectedbytelevisionexecutives.

Whatgoesaroundcomesaround,inthiscaselargelyduetobaddiet,inactivityandapinchofcomplacency.

We’reallsupposedtobetelecommutingandvideoconferencingremember?


InAlgeria,70%oflawyersand60%ofjudgesarewomen.

MurderistheleadingcauseofdeathamongpregnantwomenintheUS.

Therearenow3.3billionmobilephoneaccountsglobally,afigureroughlyequaltohalftheworld’spopulation.

Sharkskillaround10peopleeachyear.Fallingcoconutskillapproximately150.

Itisestimatedthatfinancialservicescompaniesholdaround30%ofallofficespaceinLondon.

Thereisexpectedtobea36%increaseinthenumberofpeopleaged75+inJapanbetween2005and2015.Duringthesameperiodthenumberofpeopleagedunder5years-of-ageispredictedtodeclineby13%.

TheSelf-storageindustryinAmericahasgrownmorethan40-foldsincethe1960sandnowconsistsofoverabillionsquare-feetofempty(andnotsoempty)space.InvaluetermstheindustryisnowconsiderablylargerthantheUSmusicindustry.

AccordingtoGartner,80%ofInternetuserswillhaveavatarsordigitalreplicasofthemselvesbytheyear2011.

Approximately2,600peopledieand330,000peopleareseriouslyinjuredeveryyearintheUSduetotalkingandtextingoncell-phoneswhilstdriving.

24%ofRussiansexpecttoseeaclashwiththeUSinthenearfuturecomparedwithonly4%ofChinese.

Around80%ofallnewsavailableontheInternetoriginatesinnewspapers.

9.5millionpeoplenowhavefinancialassetsofatleastUS$1million.

TheUSDepartmentofDefenceisaimingtoreplace33%ofarmedvehicleswithrobotsbytheyear2015.

Almost10%ofBritishhomesnolongerhavealandlinetelephone.

14,000newcarstaketotheroadinChinaeverysingleday.

SalesofCDmusictitlessoldinpaperjackets(i.e.reminiscentofvinylrecords)roseby100%inJapanin2005.

90%ofallscientistsandengineerswithPhDswillliveinAsiaby2010.

Ofthe120,000blogscreateddaily,50%areaboutthesamesubject-thewriter.

Bytheyear2015,WestAfricawillbecometheworld’slargestsourceofcrudeoiloutsideoftheMiddleEast.

AreportbytheKaiserFamilyFoundationsaysthat53%ofUSstudents(grades7-12)consumedanotherformofmediawhilst‘watching’television.

ThefineforpossessingahamsterinVietnamisUS$1,900.

1%ofalladultsintheUSareinjail.

FamiliesintheUKspendGB£14,800peryearonhouseholdbills.Fiveyearsagothefigurewas£8,000.

Therearenowmorepensionersaged>sixty(11.2million)thanchildrenaged<sixteen(11.1million)intheUK.

Petsoutnumberpeople1.5:1inAustralia

ThelatestJustinTimberlakeAlbumisavailablein115formats.

Therewasa400%riseinChinesepatentapplicationsbetween1995and2005.

Thenumberofbreast-augmentationsurgeriesperformedonfemaleteensroseby55%intheUSbetween2006and2007.

50%ofNewYorkUniversitystudentssaidtheywould“permanentlyforfeit”therighttovoteinexchangeforaone-offpaymentofUS$1million.

Between1991and2005deathsdirectlyrelatedtoalcoholnearlydoubledintheUK.

80%ofUKwealthisheldbypeopleaged55+

Around100millionpeoplearethoughttohavediedprematurelyduringthe20thCenturyduetocigarettesmoking.

In2005,40%ofUKweddingsinvolvedsomeonethatwasgettingmarriedforatleastthesecondtime.

2.9millionroomshavebeen‘lost’inBritishhomessince2003duetoopen-planhomeconversions.

Consumerspendingbythoseaged65-74intheUKispredictedtoincreaseby40%by2017.

In2003,theminimumwageintheUKwas£4.20perhour.IntheUSitwas$5.15.InChinaitwas18pence(29cents)anditIndiaitwas7pence(11cents).

74%ofBritonsthinkthat‘greentaxes’areacon.

Thenumberofnon-foodantibacterialproductslaunchedgloballygrewfromlessthan200in2003to1,610in2006accordingtoMintel’sNewProductsDatabase.

US$750billionisnowmanagedgloballyunderIslamicorShariaprinciples.

In2020thedominantfamilytypeinAustraliawillbecoupleswithoutchildren.

Smokingkills25%ofallmeninthedevelopingworld.

Salesofthefivemajorpainkillingmedicinesgrewby88%intheUSbetween1997-2005.

Chinahas21%oftheworld’spopulationbutonly1.8%oftheworld’soilsupply.

Ford’s2007carfleetaveraged18.7mpg.A1908FordModelTcouldreach25mpg.

TheUK’sDNADatabasecontainsinformationon40%ofblackmeninBritain.

AccordingtotheGeneralSocialSurvey(US)therehasbeena300%increaseinthenumberofAmericansthathaveabsolutelynobodytotalktoabouttheirproblems.

50%ofmenintheUKsaythattheywouldgiveupsexforsixmonthsinreturnfora50-inchplasmatelevision.However,only17%wouldgiveuptheinternetinexchangeforthetelevision.

40%oftheworld’s923,000industrialrobotsresideinJapan.

Between1980-2000membershipofpoliticalpartiesintheWestfellbyalmost50%

ItispredictedthattheretailspacedevotedtorecordedmusicintheUSwillhavefallenby30%during2008.

90%ofmenthathavewalkedonthemoonwereonceBoyScouts.

85%ofprimaryschoolteachersintheUKarefemaleand39%ofboysaged8-11havenomaleteacherswhatsoever.

Fewerthan5%ofAmericanstakepublictransporttowork.

In1970,80%ofBritishchildrenwalkedtoschool.By2007thefigurehadfallento9%.

86%oftheworld’spopulationwillliveinemergingmarketsbytheyear2050

In2007,only6%ofAmericanmenworeatietoworkeveryday.In2002thefigurewas10%.

Oilmajorscontrollessthan10percentofworldresourcesofgasandoil,against70percentinthe1970s.

Thereare26millionbusinessesintheUSand20millionofthesehavenoemployees.

35%ofUSsmall-businessownersaredyslexics.

In1992girlsaged14drank3.8units(roughly2/3ofabottle)ofwineaweek.By2004thefigurehadrisento9.7unitsperweek.

Britonsspend20%oftheirannualincomeonleisure,upfrom9%in1957

TomakeacottonT-Shirtrequires27,000litresofwater

42%oftheworld’spopulationnowlivesunderdouble-digitinflation.

Therewere8,987newcasesofMRSAintheUSin2005,resultingin1,598deaths.Thetotalnumberofdeathssince2005standsat18,650,whichcomparesto17,011deathsfromAIDS.

Cementproductionaccountsfor5%ofglobalcarbondioxideemissions.

81,000peoplediedonChineseroadsduring2007

14%ofAmericandogssufferfromseparationanxiety.

AccordingtotheUniversityofEastAnglia(UK)thechanceoffindingintelligentlifeonanotherplanetoverthenext4billionyearsis0.01%

Morethan85%oftheinformationheldbyorganizationsisunstructured.

Accordingtoa2007UNICEFstudy,theUKisrankedlastof27surveyedcountrieswhenitcomestochildwellbeing.

InChinathereare228millionInternetuserscomparedto217millionintheUS.

55%ofwomeninAmericadietheirhair.

12.6%ofUSresidents(37.6millionpeople)areillegalimmigrants.

31%ofpeoplelivinginLondonwerebornoutsideoftheUK.

62%ofpeoplelivinginBritainaged18-24saytheybelieveinhoroscopesversus38%whosaytheybelieveintheBible.

10%ofAmericansbelievethattheInternetbringsthemclosertoGodversus6%thatsayitmakesthemfeelmoredistant.

TheaveragecosttocreateacancerdrugisUS$1.04billion.TheFDAsapprovalrateforcancerdrugsbetween1990-2007was8%.

2.5millionUSchildrenareonprescribedantipsychoticdrugs.

In2004,therichest1%oftheAmericanpopulationtookhomeUS$1.35trillioninpay.Thisismorethanthetotalnationaltake-homepayinCanada,ItalyorFrance.

52%ofKoreaninfantsaged3-5regularlyusetheInternet,spendingonaverage4hourseveryweekonline.

77billioncorporateemailsaresenteveryworkingday.By2012thenumberisexpectedtobearound150billion.

5%ofSovietofficialsunderPresidentGorbachevhad

securityservicebackgrounds.UnderPutinthefigurewas78%.

70%ofpeopleintheUKhavenotieswhatsoevertoanylocalgrouporassociation.

Therewere411,000bookspublishedintheUSin2007

Over50%ofHarvard

24 www.nowandnext.com www.nowandnext.com

Howarethetrendpredictionsfrompreviousissuesofthispublicationdoing?Lookingbackitseemstheyarestandingupquitewell.Forexample,HappinesswasidentifiedasanissuebackinJanuary2006.Rememberthoughthatmajortrendsdon’tchangeveryfast,somostofthesehistoricaltrendsarestillveryactivetoday.Inotherwords,don’tignorethesetrendssimplybecausetheyareold.

1. Rhythm&balance 2. Karmacapitalism 3. Makingthings 4. Somethingfornothing 5. Industrialprovenance 6. Robotics 7. Datavisualisation 8. Realitymining 9. Eco-exhaustion 10. Fantasy&escape

1. Simplicity 2. Myway 3. Selfreliance 4. Carbon 5. Water 6. Open 7. Privateequity 8. Lowcost 9. Luxury 10. Meaning

1. Anxiety 2. Connectedness 3. Speeding-up 4. Mobility 5. Convergence 6. Privacy 7. Nostalgia 8. Localisation 9. Authenticity 10. Happiness

2007+2007+10 Trends: Predictions & Provocations



g localisation · fear, uncertainty, debt, debt-stress, climate change, unemployment and trust. 8 9...

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