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FuturinggExecutive Education2014 UNICON Directors´ Conference @HKUSTApril 2, 2014 © Mia de [email protected] www.profitpowereconomics.com

Mia de KuijperFuturing at UNICONAn Introduction

© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.

,

Futuring at UNICONWh t h l d b t S i St t ?What have we learned about Scenario Strategy?

© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.© Mia de Kuijper

2014 UNICON Directors´ Conference @ HKUSTFUTURING Executive Education, 2nd April, 2014U U G ecut e ducat o , p , 0

9:00-10:30• Questionnaire Results• Lecture: Scenario Planning for a Connected and Turbulent World• Small Team Discussion: What is the Focal Question for YOUR institution?

10:30-11:00 Break11:00-12:30

• Lecture: The Critical Elements of Modern Scenarios• Break Out: Drivers, Uncertainties and Power Nodes in Executive Education • Team presentations

12:30-13:30 Lunch13:30-15:30

• Building Scenarios• Break Out:: Building Scenarios for Executive Education• Team Presentations and Voting

15:30-16:00 Break16:00-17:00

• Announcing Winners, Break Out : Living the Scenarios, Implications--Actions


The QuestionsQ1: What is your Value Proposition?Q2a: Which trends, drivers concern you +/-?Q , y /Q2b: Which uncertainties might deliver surprises?Q3: If your outlook became reality, would your

Value Proposition be future-proof?Q4: How well and how fast could you adapt?


FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q1: What is your Value Proposition?Quest o a e esu ts Q at s you a ue opos t o

of Mentions

Academic based

Transformational Exec Ed

Cli C i i

Blended Learning

Academic based

of Mentions

Outreach, branding

Client Centricity

0 5 10 15 20


FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q2a: which trends, drivers Quest o a e esu ts Q a c t e ds, d e sgive you cause for concern or excitement?

# of mentions

Bl d d T h l

Entrants, MOOCs

Price cost

Faculty Mismatch

Blended, Technology

Demand growth

Globalization

Price, cost # of mentions

0 5 10 15 20

Open vd Custom

Demand growth


0 5 10 15 20

3-Dimensional Competition, New EntrantsMOOCSConsultantsIn-house client trainingAggregatorsInternational institutionsFaculty want to become (MOOC) starsFaculty want to become (MOOC) stars

Fading industry boundariesWebinarsC hiCoachingBusiness simulationsEntutainment


Talent Assessment

FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q2b: Which UncertaintiesQuest o a e esu ts Q b c U ce ta t escould deliver upside or downside surprises?cause s # of Mentions

B model consolidation

Economy

Technology

B-model, consolidation

# of Mentions

Funding

Entrants

0 5 10 15 20

g


FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results: Q3 if your outlook became realityQuestionnaire Results: Q3 if your outlook became reality,

would your Value Proposition be future-proof?# of responses

5

10

0yes no maybe # of responses

-10

-5y y

-15


Yes, Maybe, But..We would need to narrow our portfolioThe WHAT and the HOW would have to changeWill have to redo it…We could survive as a professional service firmWe might have to become a boutiqueWe would need more international alliancesWe would need more international alliancesWe would need to reduce costs, and deliver more applied learning at reduced pricesWe could become a niche playerWe could become a niche playerWe would change our model from faculty/program-based to solutions-orientedW ld d t l t t d bl d d l i


We would need to accelerate moves towards blended learningHigher investment would be needed

FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q4: if your outlook become reality, Quest o a e esu ts Q you out oo beco e ea ty,

how well and how fast would your institution adapt?

14

16

maybe

4

6

8

10

12

yes

no

maybe

yes

no

0

2

4

adapt welladapt fast


Business schools are better atBusiness schools are better at analyzing disruptive innovation than dealing with it

Demand for good management is spreading to the emerging world and to public and voluntary sectorsBut (they) face huge risks while changes are sweeping through the education industry◦ No barriers to entry

Captured by the academic guild◦ Captured by the academic guild ◦ Emerging price competition

◦ Source: The Economist Feb 8, 2014


,

¨There is a pressing need for large organizations to build their leadership pipeline …

AND we live in a hyper-competitive industry, ripe for disruptionby new entrants and new technologies

We as an industry are still faculty-centric, not client-centric. If we don´t learn to be more sharply focused on our clients, we will become irrelevant

The Exec Ed space is changing rapidly

If we can adapt, there will be many opportunities¨


Scenario Planning for a Connected and Turbulent WorldConnected and Turbulent World

© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.©1984 Far Works, Inc.

Today´s World:

We want to improve our ability to anticipate, andand We need to increase our agility to take action


Scenarios do:

Anticipating transforming changesPreviewing the futureO i th t d t di tOvercoming the tendency to predictSeeing multiple possibilites for the futureSense-making, spotting patternsg, p g pGenerating options: for actions and strategiesSensing: being alert to signals earlyConversing strategically: sharing understanding:Conversing strategically: sharing understanding: this future and that future


Steps in Scenario Planning• Identify Focal Questions• Bring outside in, expand mental maps

Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment• Use Scenarios: Implications Options Actions• Use Scenarios: Implications, Options, Actions• Sense the environment


The rabbit that is already in the hat

A driving force is an issue/force/trend that is already at work and that will shape the futurealready at work and that will shape the future inevitably—we just do not know yet how



Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment• Implications Options Actions• Implications, Options, Actions• Sense the environment


1 Brand 2 Secret 3 Regulatory 4 Focused1. Brand 2. SecretIngredient

3. RegulatoryProtection

4. FocusedFinancialResources

5. CustomerBase withSwitching

6. ProprietaryProcess

7. DistributionGateways

8. DominantPosition ina Layer

Cost

9. IncreasingM l

10. AikidoA

11. Filtersd

12. HubsMutualUtility

Assets andBrokers


Source: Profit Power Economics © Mia de Kuijper


Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment - add aikido• Use the Scenarios: Implications Actions• Use the Scenarios: Implications, Actions• Sense the environment


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