futures thinking - palestra na escola sustentare
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Presentação de Futures Thinking na Escola de Negócios Sustentare em Agosto 2014TRANSCRIPT
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DANIEL EGGER
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“The real voyage
consist not in seeking
new lands, but in
seeing with new eyes.”
Marcel Proust
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4(Alvin Toffler)
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61938
1928
1910
1950
1905
1923
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CONTEXTCIRCUNSTÂNCIA
FUTURO PROVÁVEL
FUTURO PREFERIDO
FUTUROS POSSÍVEIS
FUTUROS PLAUSÍVEL
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12Jean Laherrère, John Howe
4.7 barrels in 2012
81 Singapore
43 United Arab Emirates
39 Saudi Arabia
24 Canada
22 United States
17 Australia
22 Belgium
9.7 France
8.8 United Kingdom
2.8 China
1.2 Africa
1 India
1 CPF
1.5 CPF
2 CPF
2 CPF
1 CPF
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Novalis (1772-1801, aka Friedrich von Hardenberg)
My goal is to turn the familiar strange
and the strange familiar.
So what is my goal?
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1 Existem muitos futuros
2 Os futuros não podem ser previstos
3 O Futuro é neutro
4 O amanhã é complexo
5 Gerando Valor Futuro
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• are about human (and AI in the future)• are about using your BRAIN• are about a mindset• are about complexity• are about uncertainty• are about patterns• are about research• are about concepts• are about Storytelling• are about creating choices
DESIGN THINKING ANDFUTURES THINKING…
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• is about a problem• It is about context and creating
empathy• Is about “real persons”• is about experiences, meaning,
delight• is about Insights• is about solutions• is about volume• is about a (physical) prototype
DESIGN THINKING…
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• is about future contexts, understanding, possibilities and creating empathy
• is about Value.• is about the changes in value• is about implications• is about Insights.• is about the hidden question • is about context relevancy • is about society + individual• is about real and average persons• is about prototyping strategic options
FUTURES THINKING…
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VALOR FUTURO
EXPLORARDEFINIR
GERAÇÃO
FAZER
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Strategic Planning
Strategic Management
Strategic Planning
Strategic Planning
Futuring Futuring
Strategic Management
Innovation
Business Intelligence
Strategic Planning
Futuring
Futuring
Innovation
Provável Preferido
Possível Plausível
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