futures methods, a horizon report intro
DESCRIPTION
Quick overview of futures methods for .edu, leading into Horizon Report intro.TRANSCRIPT
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Catching the Future
Before it Catches You
∞A 2010 .edu
survey
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Catching the Future Before it Catches You
1. Extrapolation2. Scenarios 3. Futures market4. Environmental
scan5. Delphi
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Principles of Forecasting (2001) (http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html)
Apprehending the futures
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Extrapolation
iPhone Apps Store downloads1. April 2009 1.0 billion2. July 2009 1.5 billion3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion
-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics
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Limitations
• Trend lines vary• Doesn’t account
for new things• The Black Swan
(Taleb, 2007)
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Scenarios Stories about futures• Event and response• Creativity
• Roles and times• Emergent practices and
patterns
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Limitations
• Culture• Resources• The Black
Swan
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Futures marketFeatures• Propositions in time• Shares to be traded
Advantages• Continuous• Distributed feedback• Affordances of play
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Will 25 or more institutions be participating in Flickr’s Creative
Commons project by March 26, 2009?
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When will the number of Facebook users hit 200 million?
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Limitations
• Quantitative threshold• Physical proximity• Market metaphor• The Black Swan
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Environmental scanning
• Multiple sources• Longitudinal• Pattern
recognition
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Crowdsourcing
Different levels• Social network
• Crowd computing• Iterated resource feeds
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Delphi
• Assemble experts• Probe for opinions• Rank and distill
ideas• Reiterate
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Example: the Horizon Report
• “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews
• [We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.
• A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.
• Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”
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Limitations
• Groupthink• Information
compression• The Black Swan
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Citations
• iCub, http://infocult.typepad.com/infocult/2009/09/robot-children-toddle-out-of-the-uncanny-valley.html
• Principles of Forecasting chart, http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html
• accessCeramics, Lewis and Clark, http://accessceramics.org/ • Nassim Taleb, http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ • Black Swans: Field Museum Library,
http://www.flickr.com/photos/field_museum_library/3405475664/; gnuckx cc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/
• Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html
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More citations• NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/ • Cat and kitten, http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryanalexander • Bing’s Twitter search, http://www.bing.com/twitter • Episilon Aurigae crowdsourcing,
http://mysite.du.edu/~rstencel/epsaurnews.htm • Horizon Report 2010 wiki, http://horizon.wiki.nmc.org/• “Apprehending the Future: Emerging Technologies, from Science
Fiction to Campus Reality”, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 44, no. 3 (May/June 2009): 12–29. http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume44/ApprehendingtheFutureEmergingT/171774. More sources there.
• Wayne Brent, Cyprien Lomas, Ruben R. Puentedura, “Grow Your Own Horizon Report” (Educause conference 2009)
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The ultimate links
NITLEhttp://nitle.org
Technehttp://blogs.nitle.org/
NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander