future water supply needs and strategies to meet...

Water Forward – Austin’s Integrated Water Resource PlanFebruary 8, 2017

Future Water Supply Needs

and Strategies to Meet ThemFebruary 8, 2017


Agenda

●Purpose of Integrated Water Resource Plan

●Existing water supplies

●Water demand forecast

●Preliminary water needs analysis

●Q&A

●Options and portfolios

●Q&A

●Dot exercise



Water ForwardIntegrated Water Resource Plan (IWRP)

●Austin Water is leading the development of a 100 year water plan that reflects our community’s values

●Goal: Ensure a diversified, sustainable, and resilient water future, with strong emphasis on water conservation

●We are seeking your input on the plan

oFocus today is on demand management strategies and supply options



Water ForwardIntegrated Water Resource Plan (IWRP)

● Incorporates planning for drought and climate change

● Council-appointed Task Force meets monthly

● Interdepartmental coordination and coordination with the community to make sure plan is implementable

● Plan projected to be completed in 2018 with planned updates on a five year cycle


• Colorado River:

– Combination of State-

granted water rights & long-

term contract with LCRA

– Up to 325,000 acre-feet per

year (afy)

• LCRA reservation & use fees

pre-paid in 1999

– Additional use payments

trigger when average for 2

consecutive years exceeds

201,000 afy

Austin Water Supply


Austin is Texas’ Top Water

Conservation Scoring Utility

Texas Living Waters Project:

Partnership of the Sierra Club Lone Star

Chapter, National Wildlife Federation, and

Galveston Bay Foundation Reclaimed Water Master Plan



Drivers for Austin’s IWRP

Development of Austin’s IWRP was a key recommendation from

2014 City Task Force on Water Resources


Recent Extreme Drought

Austin and Regional

Population Growth

& Development

Climate Change

Impacts on Supply

Reliability

Sustainability Principles


Economic

Social

Environment

Five IWRP Objectives Aligned with the Principles of Sustainability

Sustainability Principles

1. Water Supply Benefits

2. Economic Benefits

5. Environmental Benefits

4. Implementation

Benefits

3. Societal Benefits

IWRP Objectives



Public Workshops• Workshop #1 – September 6

o Overview of IWRP and Objectives

• Workshop #2 – February 8:

o Future Water Supply Needs and Strategies to Meet Them

• Workshop #3 – Summer 2017:

o Portfolio Themes

• Workshop #4 – Early 2018:

o Draft Plan Recommendations

INNOVATIVE INTEGRATED

SUSTAINABLE

RESILIENT DIVERSIFIED



Workshop 1: What we heard

We’re moving in the right direction

Want to see return

on investment

Reliability is important

Affordability and equity

are important

Balance short term and long

term planning

Concern about climate

change

Support for distributed

and demand management

options


Targeted stakeholder outreach meetings

• Series of three stakeholder meetings held in January

2017 to discuss demand management options

focusing on:

• Landscape transformation and irrigation

efficiencies

• Alternative water ordinances and incentives

• Development and plumbing ordinances and

incentives

• Brought in landscaping, irrigation, and plumbing

industry experts, large volume water users,

environmental groups, development community

representatives


How Public Input will be Incorporated

• Understanding of values and perspectives of what is important

• Feedback on demand-side and supply-side options

• Feedback on plan recommendations and path forward

• Gauge overall understanding of plan for communication/outreach efforts


Water Demand Forecast


Disaggregated Demand Model

● Demand forecast driven by many different factors

● How we use water in our homes and businesses

● Weather

● Conservation

● Population growth


Historical and Future Population Estimates

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 2075 2095 2115

Austin Water Served Population

1915 to 2016 2017 to 2115


Baseline Demand Projections – River Diversions


2020 2040 2070 2115


35.6%

24.9%

23.1%

6.7%

7.9%

1.8%

Single Family

Multi-family

Commercial

Wholesale

Large Volume

City of Austin

Breakdown of Consumption by Sector



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

Bil

lio

ns

of

Ga

llo

ns

City-Wide Consumption Projections

Outdoor

City of Austin

Large Volume

Wholesale

Commercial

Multi-Family

Single-Family

Total Pumpage

Baseline Demand Projections - Consumption



Indoor71%

Outdoor22%

Wholesale7%

Showers6.2%

Toilets4.9%

Clothes washers4.7%

Dishwashers0.4%

Sinks4.5%

Leaks5.1%

Outdoor9.7%

Showers4.2%

Toilets5.0%

Clothes washers2.9%

Dishwashers0.2%

Sinks4.3%

Leaks4.2%Outdoor

4.0%

Outdoor6.9%

Fire Hydrants0.4%

Single Family4.7%

Multi-family0.7%

Commercial1.3%

Freescale1.8%

Samsung4.1%

Novati0.2%

Spansion0.8%

UT-Austin1.3%

Austin Water0.03%

Austin Energy0.4%

Parks and Recreation

0.1%

City Other0.2% Outdoor

1.0%

Indoor vs. Outdoor Consumption

Another 2% estimated outdoor use

embedded in the Wholesale Sector

2% 5%



Preliminary Water Needs Analysis


Colorado River Basin Map

Legend

!( WAM_PrimaryCP

TWDB_SWP2012_Major_Reservoirs_STP

TWDB_SWP2012_Major_Reservoirs_in_Colorado_Basin

MajorRivers_dd83

Colorado_Flowline

Irrigation_Districts

EXTERNAL.texas_counties

TxDOT_Roadways_State_Whole Basin

<all other values>

RTE_PRFX_C

BI; IH

BU; UA; UP; US

BS; SH; SL; SS

BF; FM; FS; PA; PR; RE; RM; RR; RS

FC

A; AA

EXTERNAL.texas_city_boundaries

TWDB_MRBs_2014

basin_name

1. Canadian

2. Red

3. Sulphur

4. Cypress

5. Sabine

6. Neches

7. Neches-Trinity

8. Trinity

9. Trinity-San Jacinto

10. San Jacinto

11. San Jacinto-Brazos

12. Brazos

13. Brazos-Colorado

14. Colorado

15. Colorado-Lavaca

16. Lavaca

17. Lavaca-Guadalupe

18. Guadalupe

19. San Antonio

20. San Antonio-Nueces

21. Nueces

22. Nueces-Rio Grande

23. Rio Grande

TWDB_MRBs_2014

World Imagery

Low Resolution 15m Imagery

High Resolution 60cm Imagery


Citations

Legend

!( WAM_PrimaryCP



MajorRivers_dd83

Colorado_Flowline




<all other values>

RTE_PRFX_C

BI; IH

BU; UA; UP; US

BS; SH; SL; SS


FC

A; AA


TWDB_MRBs_2014

basin_name

1. Canadian

2. Red

3. Sulphur

4. Cypress

5. Sabine

6. Neches

7. Neches-Trinity

8. Trinity


10. San Jacinto


12. Brazos

13. Brazos-Colorado

14. Colorado

15. Colorado-Lavaca

16. Lavaca


18. Guadalupe

19. San Antonio


21. Nueces


23. Rio Grande

TWDB_MRBs_2014

World Imagery




Citations

Legend

!( WAM_PrimaryCP



MajorRivers_dd83

Colorado_Flowline




<all other values>

RTE_PRFX_C

BI; IH

BU; UA; UP; US

BS; SH; SL; SS


FC

A; AA


TWDB_MRBs_2014

basin_name

1. Canadian

2. Red

3. Sulphur

4. Cypress

5. Sabine

6. Neches

7. Neches-Trinity

8. Trinity


10. San Jacinto


12. Brazos

13. Brazos-Colorado

14. Colorado

15. Colorado-Lavaca

16. Lavaca


18. Guadalupe

19. San Antonio


21. Nueces


23. Rio Grande

TWDB_MRBs_2014

World Imagery




Citations

Legend

!( WAM_PrimaryCP



MajorRivers_dd83

Colorado_Flowline




<all other values>

RTE_PRFX_C

BI; IH

BU; UA; UP; US

BS; SH; SL; SS


FC

A; AA


TWDB_MRBs_2014

basin_name

1. Canadian

2. Red

3. Sulphur

4. Cypress

5. Sabine

6. Neches

7. Neches-Trinity

8. Trinity


10. San Jacinto


12. Brazos

13. Brazos-Colorado

14. Colorado

15. Colorado-Lavaca

16. Lavaca


18. Guadalupe

19. San Antonio


21. Nueces


23. Rio Grande

TWDB_MRBs_2014

World Imagery




Citations

Legend

!( WAM_PrimaryCP



MajorRivers_dd83

Colorado_Flowline




<all other values>

RTE_PRFX_C

BI; IH

BU; UA; UP; US

BS; SH; SL; SS


FC

A; AA


TWDB_MRBs_2014

basin_name

1. Canadian

2. Red

3. Sulphur

4. Cypress

5. Sabine

6. Neches

7. Neches-Trinity

8. Trinity


10. San Jacinto


12. Brazos

13. Brazos-Colorado

14. Colorado

15. Colorado-Lavaca

16. Lavaca


18. Guadalupe

19. San Antonio


21. Nueces


23. Rio Grande

TWDB_MRBs_2014

World Imagery




Citations

Legend

!( WAM_PrimaryCP



MajorRivers_dd83

Colorado_Flowline




<all other values>

RTE_PRFX_C

BI; IH

BU; UA; UP; US

BS; SH; SL; SS


FC

A; AA


TWDB_MRBs_2014

basin_name

1. Canadian

2. Red

3. Sulphur

4. Cypress

5. Sabine

6. Neches

7. Neches-Trinity

8. Trinity


10. San Jacinto


12. Brazos

13. Brazos-Colorado

14. Colorado

15. Colorado-Lavaca

16. Lavaca


18. Guadalupe

19. San Antonio


21. Nueces


23. Rio Grande

TWDB_MRBs_2014

World Imagery




Citations

WAM Primary Control Points

Major Rivers

Major Reservoirs

LCRA Irrigation Districts

Colorado River Basin

Major River Basins

0 40 80 120 16020Miles



• Firm supply – 325,000 AF

• Emergency lake level -

600,000 AF triggers

cutbacks on use from the

river

• Part of the plan is to

identify options to reduce

the impact of these

cutbacks

Dem

an

d (

Acre

Feet)

Time (year)

Projected Demands Evaluated Against Period of

Record Hydrology

Highland Lakes Combined Storage Levels

600,000 AF

Full

Time (year)

Com

bin

ed S

tora

ge (

Acre

Feet)



Dem

an

d (

Acre

Feet)

Time (year)

2115 Demands

Evaluated Against Period of Record Hydrology

When City of Austin’s

demands exceed the current

325,000 AF contract with

LCRA, additional water

supply and/or increased

demand management is

needed

Purple Region = Baseline Demands Above 325,000 AF



Extended

Period of Record Hydrology

.

.

Extended


Climate Change-Adjusted

10,000 Years 10,000 Years


1940 - 2016

.


1940 - 2016

..


77 Years 77 Years

BA

C D


Water Forward

Planning For Change and Uncertainties

77 Years 77 Years


1940 - 2016

..



1940 - 2016

.

10,000 Years 10,000 Years

MCMC

Extended Sampling of



MCMC

Extended Sampling of


.

.

BA

C D

Extended Period of Record

with Climate ChangeExtended Period of Record


2040 City of Austin Needs Summary

A B

0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

1,500,000

1,800,000

2,100,000

1-J

an-4

0

1-M

ay-4

2

1-S

ep-

44

1-J

an-4

7

1-M

ay-4

9

1-S

ep-

51

1-J

an-5

4

1-M

ay-5

6

1-S

ep-

58

1-J

an-6

1

1-M

ay-6

3

1-S

ep-

65

1-J

an-6

8

1-M

ay-7

0

1-S

ep-

72

1-J

an-7

5

1-M

ay-7

7

1-S

ep-

79

1-J

an-8

2

1-M

ay-8

4

1-S

ep-

86

1-J

an-8

9

1-M

ay-9

1

1-S

ep-

93

1-J

an-9

6

1-M

ay-9

8

1-S

ep-

00

1-J

an-0

3

1-M

ay-0

5

1-S

ep-

07

1-J

an-1

0

1-M

ay-1

2

1-S

ep-

14

Combined Storage of Buchanan and Travis2040 Demands and Stationary Climate

Period of Record (77 years) Period of Record (77 years) Climate-Adjusted




A BPeriod of Record (77 years) Period of Record (77 years) Climate-Adjusted



Planning for Droughts Worse than the Recent Drought

• In the past, the worst drought in the region occurred during the 1950s

• The most recent drought from 2007-2016 eclipsed the 1950s drought

• Inflows in the worst year in the recent drought were 2.5 times lower than what they were in the worst year of the 1950s drought

• Our modeling shows that droughts worse than the 2007-2016 drought are possible


Q&A


IWRP Development Process



Preliminary Demand Management Options

Water Loss Control – reducing water losses in AW’s water distribution system through strategies like leak detection, reducing main break response time, and performing water main replacements

Automated Metering Infrastructure (AMI) – New meters that provide real time information on customer water use to help encourage efficient water use and identify possible home leaks or other high uses of water that can be corrected by the homeowner



Landscape Transformation – ordinances and/or incentives to encourage changing turf to more water efficient landscaping or limit the amount of turf on properties.

Irrigation Efficiency – ordinances and/or incentives to encourage the use of water efficient landscape irrigation systems



Commercial/Institutional/Industrial Conservation – ordinances and/or incentives to encourage more efficient water use for cooling towers/boiler feeds, AC condensate recovery, swimming pools/decorative fountains, as well as disclosure of inefficient water use fixtures at point of sale

Plumbing Fixture Efficiency – ordinances and/or incentives to encourage use of Energy Star and WaterSense labeled equipment, and for replacement of non-water efficient plumbing fixtures



Onsite Reuse of Water for Non-Potable Uses –ordinances and/or incentives to encourage onsite rainwater harvesting, greywater systems, and dual plumbing (for new developments) in order to reduce the use of drinking water for landscape irrigation and toilet flushing

Water Use Benchmarking – programs to encourage water efficiency benchmarking for new developments and reporting of water use for large building owners



Customer Education/Outreach – programs that continue to educate AW water customers on the conservation and value of water

Water Rates/Water Fees – explore how changes in water rates and water fees may further encourage water use efficiency while maintaining affordability and equity


Preliminary Supply Options

Expanded Reclaimed Water System – expansion of AW’s “purple-pipe” reclaimed water system for non-potable uses like irrigation, cooling towers, and toilet flushing

Decentralized Options for Wastewater Reuse –use of neighborhood satellite wastewater plants or onsite (building-scale) wastewater treatment for non-potable uses like toilet flushing, cooling towers, and landscape irrigation



Indirect Potable Reuse – various strategies to transport highly treated reclaimed water via natural systems like surface water reservoirs or alluvial aquifers for purification to drinking water quality at an existing water treatment plant

Direct Potable Reuse – Purifying highly treated reclaimed water using advanced treatment (similar to desalination treatment) to supplement drinking water supply



Rainwater and Stormwater Capture – capture and storage of rainwater and stormwater for various uses like irrigation and toilet flushing (neighborhood-scale)

Aquifer Storage and Recovery – storing excess surface water during wet years in underground aquifers for later use during dry years



Additional LCRA Supply/Enhanced Lake Operations/Capture of Stormwater Inflows –additional LCRA supply and various strategies at Lake Austin and Lady Bird Lake to increase ability to draw water from reservoir storage and minimize lake evaporation during dry years

Enhanced Off-Channel Storage at Walter E. Long Lake – if Decker Power Station is taken off line, Decker Lake could be used for additional storage that could provide additional water during dry years



Groundwater – includes brackish groundwater desalination (removing salts from brackish groundwater using advanced water treatment for new water supply) and conventional groundwater options

Seawater Desalination – removing salts from ocean water using advanced water treatment for new water supply


Q&A


Dot Exercise


Thank You

You can follow the process and

find more information at:

austintexas.gov/waterforward


IWRP Guiding Principles● Recognizing that Colorado River water is Austin’s core supply, continue a strong

partnership between the City and LCRA to assure its reliability

● Focus on conservation and water use efficiency

● Strengthen long-term sustainability, reliability, and diversity of Austin’s water

supply through maximizing local water resources

● Avoid severe water shortages during times of drought

● Focus on projects that are technically, socially, and economically feasible

● Continue to protect Austin’s natural environment

● Continue to meet/exceed all federal, state and local public health regulations

● Align with Imagine Austin’s “Sustainably Manage Our Water Resources Priority

Program”

● Maintain coordination and communication with regional partners

● Engage the public and stakeholders throughout the plan development process



Base Year Consumption Subsectors

Indoor25.9%

Outdoor9.7%

Indoor20.8%

Outdoor4.0%

Hospitals2.0%

Offices3.2%

Schools2.0%

Restaurants1.9%

Hospitality3.0%

Retail2.1%

Industrial1.4%

Outdoor6.9%

Fire Hydrants0.4%

Single Family4.7%

Multi-family0.7%

Commercial1.3%

Freescale1.8% Samsung

4.1%

Novati0.2%

Spansion0.8%

UT-Austin1.3%

Austin Water0.03% Austin

Energy0.4%

Parks and Recreation

0.1%

City Other0.2%

Outdoor1.0%

Wholesale

Large Volume

City of Austin

Single Family

Multi-family

Commercial



Planning for uncertainty and change: Droughts

• 2011 the lowest amount of water flowing into the Highland Lakes since they were built

• In a February 2015 press release LCRA announced that:

…“the Highland Lakes are now in a new ‘critical period’ marking the driest conditions on record, eclipsing the 1947-57 drought that until now was the worst on record for this region.”



Water Forward - Integrated Water Resources PlanPublic Workshop #1

Water

Demand

future water supply needs and strategies to meet...

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