future warming and impacts on u.s. northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · geophysical fluid dynamics...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017 Presented by . Vincent Saba](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081405/5f0699b07e708231d418cc2c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017
Presented by Vincent Saba
Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries
![Page 2: Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017 Presented by . Vincent Saba](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081405/5f0699b07e708231d418cc2c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017
Northeast U.S. Commercial Fishery Value
2
![Page 3: Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017 Presented by . Vincent Saba](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081405/5f0699b07e708231d418cc2c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017
Importance of Climate Model Resolution
3
21
17
13
9
5
Sea
Surf
ace
Tem
pera
ture
o C
NOAA NCEI (10-km)
Low-res. ocean (100-km)
Mid-res. ocean (25-km)
High-res. ocean (10-km)
GFDL CM2.1
GFDL CM2.6 GFDL CM2.5
Observed
![Page 4: Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017 Presented by . Vincent Saba](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081405/5f0699b07e708231d418cc2c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017
Importance of Climate Model Resolution
4
![Page 5: Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017 Presented by . Vincent Saba](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081405/5f0699b07e708231d418cc2c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017
Using GFDL’s CM2.6 for species projections
5
Atlantic cod
Kleisner et al. 2017
![Page 6: Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017 Presented by . Vincent Saba](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081405/5f0699b07e708231d418cc2c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017
Using GFDL’s CM2.6 for species projections
6
Kleisner et al. 2017
Distance to port under
continued ocean warming. Does not account for:
• Fishing mortality change.
• Bottom-up forcing • Species interactions.
![Page 7: Future warming and impacts on U.S. Northwest fisheries · 2017-12-04 · Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017 Presented by . Vincent Saba](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081405/5f0699b07e708231d418cc2c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Fall Science Symposium November 2, 2017
Summary
7
• GFDL’s CM2.6 is now being widely used for Northeast U.S. fisheries research
• Thermal habitat projections for all major species are on nefsc.noaa.gov
• CM2.6 - Zooplankton distribution shifts
• CM2.6 - Predator/prey interactions
• CM2.6 - Sea turtles