future outlook for domestic offsetting in europe

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Bram Borkent 26/09/2013 Future outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe International Workshop on Domestic Offset Schemes „Towards scattered ambitions?“ Zürich, 26 September 2013

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This presentation informs on key elements and drivers for Domestic Offsetting in Europe as well as its potential role in view of current EU policy and global trends. Dr.ir. Bram Borkent, Consultant for Market based Mechanisms at Ecofys, gave this presentation during the International Workshop on Domestic Offset Schemes „Towards scattered ambitions?“ in Zurich, Switzerland, on 26 September 2013.

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Page 1: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

Bram Borkent

26/09/2013

Future outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

International Workshop on Domestic Offset

Schemes „Towards scattered ambitions?“

Zürich, 26 September 2013

Page 2: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Domestic offsetting: what is it?

Definition

> The generation of emission reduction credits in sectors not

covered by an emissions trading scheme, that can be purchased

to offset emissions by other entities (within the host country or

sometimes abroad).

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 3: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Why does it matter?

> Carbon price incentive for emission reductions in non-ETS sectors

> Attracts domestic investments, innovation, safeguarding jobs

> Search engine

> Flexibility for regulated sectors (e.g. ETS)

> Marketing

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 4: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Trend: increased focus on domestic offset projects

Source:

Page 5: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Key elements and drivers for Domestic Offsetting

in Europe

1. EU policy context

2. Demand

3. Supply

4. Cost efficient design

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 6: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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1. Domestic offsets in EU are embedded in an

overarching regulatory frame

GHG reduction target:

-20% compared to 1990

Non-ETS

-10% compared to 2005

27 national targets

Ranging from +20% to -20%

EU ETS

-21% compared to 2005

-14% compared to 2005

Power sector

Energy-intensive industry and

other selected industrial sectors

Aviation (since 2012)

CCS installations (since 2013)

Martijn Overgaag, Jan-Martin Rhiemeier

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 7: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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1. Both ETS and non-ETS are capped and

allowances can be traded

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 8: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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2. The lost decade: current GHG targets limit

appetite for additional climate policies

> EU-ETS

– Oversupplied by >2 billion allowances

– Low carbon prices until at least 2023 (Reuters PointCarbon)

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

*) Source: EEA (2012), Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe

> Non-ETS

– 21 Member States on track to

reach 2020 target*

– With existing or currently

planned measures

> Next decade

– Low demand for AEAs / EUAs

– Little incentive to reduce

emissions beyond targets

Page 9: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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3. Sufficient supply? An example from The Netherlands

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 10: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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3. Most reduction options are not suitable for

Domestic Offsetting leaving limited supply

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Transaction costs,

implementation barriers,

specific issues

24

12

7

5

Supply (MtCO2)

~1 MtCO2

Page 11: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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4. How can you design domestic offsetting cost

efficiently?

> Three options to be discussed:

a. Coupling with the EU ETS (“Article 24a”)

b. Government buyer option

c. Adoption of a voluntary framework

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 12: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Option a: “Article 24a”

Emissions

National level

ETS

Non- ETS

Emissions Compliance

AEA budget

Finance for domestic projects

by (EU ETS) market

Page 13: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Option a: “Article 24a”

Emissions

National level

ETS

Non- ETS

Emissions Compliance

AEA budget

DOC

Credits are generated which

can be used in EU-ETS EUA

Government cancels AEAs

Page 14: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

© ECOFYS | | 26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Option b: Government buyer option

Emissions

National level

ETS

Non- ETS

Emissions Compliance

AEA budget

Finance for domestic projects

by government

Page 15: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Option b: Government buyer option

Emissions

National level

ETS

Non- ETS

Emissions Compliance

AEA budget

AEAs

Other

MS

Government sells surplus AEAs

Page 16: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

© ECOFYS | | 26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Option c: Adoption of the voluntary market

Emissions

National level

ETS

Non- ETS

Emissions Compliance

AEA budget

Finance by market

(project developers)

Page 17: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

© ECOFYS | | 26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Option c: Adoption of the voluntary market

Emissions Compliance

Project

developers Private sector

• Market receives voluntary credits

which can be further sold on

• Government cancels AEAs

Emissions

National level

ETS

Non- ETS

AEA budget

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Evaluation of pros and cons: the voluntary market

option preferred

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

“Article 24a” Government buyer

Voluntary market

Demand

Administrative

costs

Independent

Global net

mitigation

Increases

flexibility

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Conclusion

> Global trend towards domestic project-based crediting

> Domestic Offsetting is an opportunity to reduce emissions and

attract domestic investments, but…

> …current European GHG targets provide little environmental

incentive for Domestic Offsetting in the next decade

> … if considered, it should be designed with care, e.g. :

– Embedding in EU policy context

– Supply and demand sources

– Cost efficient design

– Impact of implementation barriers

> The voluntary market is a “no lose” option; it’s benefits need

more attention

26/09/2013 Bram Borkent

Page 20: Future Outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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Thank you for your attention!

> Contact details

Dr. ir. Bram Borkent - Consultant

Market Based Mechanisms

T: +31 (0)30 662 3822

M: +31 (0)6 5463 5575

E: [email protected]

I: www.ecofys.com