future of carbon markets: u.s. and post-2012 regime
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Future of Carbon Markets: U.S. and Post-2012 Regime. Joe Nation, Ph.D. March 13, 2007. U.S. Move Led by State, Local Governments. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Future of Carbon Markets:Future of Carbon Markets:U.S. and Post-2012 RegimeU.S. and Post-2012 Regime
Joe Nation, Ph.D.
March 13, 2007
U.S. Move Led by State,Local Governments
• AB 32 (California) and Schwarzenegger executive orders most comprehensive, aggressive effort—1990 emissions levels by 2020—80% below 1990 levels by 2050—multi-sectoral approach—Market Advisory Committee (MAC) report due June 30, 2007—trading to begin Jan. 1, 2012—seek “linkages” with ETS, others
• Numerous local governments setting targets
Other U.S. States Engaged
• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in northeast—limited to utilities
• New Jersey target 1990 levels by 2020, 80 percent below 2006 levels by 2050
• Western Regional Climate Action Initiative requires regional target in 6 months
• Total of more than 40 states with emissions targets or pending legislation
Federal (In)Action
• 106 bills introduced on climate, emissions in last Congress
• Numerous bills introduced—only Bingaman (D-NM), which contains price safety valves, likely to survive veto
• Unlikely any significant federal action before 2009
• Some suggest adopting law “like” California
Action Post-2012Highly Speculative
• Assume California, other states’ markets• Motivation at state level to force federal action• Climate unlikely to emerge as major issue in 2008
Presidential campaign, but new law likely during 2009-2012 period
• Action limited by U.S. voter support for emissions reductions, although three in four now view climate change as “serious” issue
Observations
• Voluntary market likely to grow significantly pending certainty of state, federal actions—colleges, governments, businesses taking unilateral actions
• Business increasingly supportive of emissions reductions
• Market, voters will lead political leaders—”pain” associated with steep reductions
Contact Information
Joe Nation, Ph.D.P.O. Box 9374
San Rafael, CA 94912 USA
+1 415.453.0388Fax: + 1 415.453.0488