future markets for sheepmeat - uwa institute of ag · future markets for sheepmeat ... i try to buy...
TRANSCRIPT
Future markets for sheepmeat“Innovations in animal production to meet consumer expectations” Producer Forum University of Western Australia2 August 2007
Peter Weeks Manager, Market Information
Address outline
• Demand for Australian lamb?
• Who are the main customers?– Look at 4 key markets
• Prospects?
Demand for our lamb has risen rapidly
both locally and overseas
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06p
calendar year
0
500
1000
1500
2000domestic A$ million
0
200
400
600
800
1000export A$ million fas
domestic expenditure export value
Hence, prices are historically high and
production is expanding, despite drought
Source: ABS, NLRS, MLA
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 070
100
200
300
400
A¢/kg dw
0
100
200
300
400
500'000 tonnes cwt
lamb price lamb production
Australian lamb utilisation 2006Total: 398,907 tonnes cwt
Source: DAFF, ABS, MLA
North Asia10%
Pacific3%
Middle East5%
Europe4%
Africa4%
North America15%
other2%
domestic56%
Australian sheep utilisation 2006Total: 347,396 tonnes cwt
Source: DAFF, ABS, MLA
North Asia10%
Pacific2%
Middle Eastmutton16%
Mid Eastlive exports
26%
Europe3%
Africa8%
North America10%
other9%
domestic15%
Lamb market specifications
Light Middle East, Africa, Pacific etc
Light trade Butchers
Trade (20-22kg) Butcher & supermarket
Heavy (>22kg) Export
The 5 pillars of meat demand
Nutrition
- Essential- 3-4 times/wk
Enjoyment
- quality- popular- interesting
Convenience
- easy to prepare- easy to choose
Red Meat
Integrity
- safe- responsible- ethical
Value for money
- affordable- price ....options
Local lamb demand up
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
198019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
06p
Purcell's Demand Index (1980 = 100)
highest
since 1985
• 15 years of good economic growth
• Lift in lamb size and quality– development of a specialist prime lamb industry
• Improved marketing by butchers and supermarkets– Including new lamb cuts
• Successful lamb promotions
• Improved health image of red meat
Local lamb demand up: why?
Lamb carcase weights
Source: ABS
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22kg dw
Consumers confident in quality
“How do you rate the quality of _______ you buy today?”
7.2 7.47.67.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Beef Lamb Chicken PorkSource: Stancombe 2005
always excellent
never excellent
Mums more confident on nutrition
26262626
38383838
24242424
57575757
46464646 44444444
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
% Agree
% mums who limit red meat consumption to avoid possible heath problems
Source: Sweeney, Millward Brown
Roy Morgan Single Source Oct01-Sep06Total Population 18+ who agreed/disagreed with the statementI try to buy additive free food: 110,234
Population 18+ who agree with the statement
I Try to Buy Additive Free Food
40
42
44
46
48
50
OCT01-SEP02 OCT02-SEP03 OCT03-SEP04 OCT04-SEP05 OCT05-SEP06
Additives in food is becoming more of a concern for consumers
3112
24 20
41- 35-44- 47-
-14 -31 -16-21
-18
12
5
139
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Beef Chicken Lamb Pork
Very good Excellent Good Fair Poor
There are integrity issues
associated with chicken..
Q - Overall, would you say that the way Australian … are farmed and raised, and the way the chicken industry is regulated is….?
= significant at 95% CI
32 26 29 29
19- 23-
-14
2548
2424
-1223-
-14
9-
16-
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Beef Chicken Lamb Pork
Tend to agree Strongly agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree
Consumers genuinely worry
about chicken and “additives”
Q - It bothers me that … may contain traces of chemicals and hormones used in rearing the animals
= significant at 95% CI
Only touching the surface of potential demand in
the US – mainly hispanics
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07f
0
10
20
30
40
50'000 tonnes swt
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350A$ million
volume value
Hispanics a growing part of the US
• 45 million• 61% of immigration• US born hispanics 60% of US pop growth• 3% growth/year• ‘If a meal has no meat, it is not a meal”
• Preference for lamb and goat meat• Unfrozen lamb and goat meat legs, racks and chops
… and now consumers in North Asia
are discovering lamb
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07f
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35'000 tonnes swt
Japan
China
Hong Kong
South Korea
Taiwan
Lamb Banner for MLA event
Harumi Kurihara – Lamb recipeLamb Poster
Lamb Squeeze Pal
Aussie Lamb promotions 2006-2007:
Promotional materials / tools
Australian Fair at Izumiya Supermarket
Factors considered by North Asian
consumers when buying beef
Freshness
Safety
Clean
Taste
Tenderness
Colour
Average rating
Korean consumers
Safety
Purchasewith confidence
Chemical free
Delicious
Juicy
Price
Average rating
Japanese consumers
List of veterinary treatments by therapeutic category10
List of feed the animal has been raised on9
Address of the above
Name of the abattoir
Phone number of the above
Name of the person or company that organized slaughter8
Phone number of the feedlot7
Breed6
Date of slaughter5
Date the cattle entered the feedlot
Address of the feedlot4
Date of the management commenced
Address of the above
Name of the production process manager 3
Sex2
Date of birth1
Sharp lamb export rise to Middle East and Africa
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07f
0
10
20
30
40'000 tonnes swt
total Middle East South Africa other Africa*
Also lamb consumers are increasing
• Global market for Halal food estimated at US$150 billion in 2005• World Muslim population increasing in size and affluence
• Estimates suggest that this market could grow to be worth in excess of US$500 billion.
Lots of lamb growth opportunities
Key overseas growth markets for Australian lamb next decade:
• USA
• China
• Mexico
• India
• GCC, esp. Saudi Arabia & UAE
• EU (if barriers eased)
Achieved growth in lamb production in recent
years – particularly in WA
Source: ABS
73 76 81 86 91 96 01 07p
0
100
200
300
400
500'000 tonnes cwt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60'000 tonnes cwt
Australian lamb production
WA lamb production
But flock now lowest since 1925 –
constraining growth potential in short term
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08f 10f
0
100
200
300
400
500'000 tonnes cwt
0
50
100
150
200million sheep and lambs
lamb production sheep flock
And sheep supplies are sure to be low
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07f 09f 11f
0
5
10
15
20
25million head
0
50
100
150
200
250¢/kg cwt
Sheep slaughter
Live sheep exports
sheep price
Australian sheepmeat has a strong, diverse and growing
demand base – supply likely to remain the big issue
The integrity challenge provides great opportunities for Australia’s sheepmeat industry …
• essentially natural, minimally processed, nutritionally sound
• the centre of a great family meal
• produced by people passionate about conservation, animal welfare and the environment
Enterprise opportunities for
• further brand development and positioning, based on consumers’ integrity expectations
The Australian The Australian The Australian The Australian sheepmeatsheepmeatsheepmeatsheepmeat industryindustryindustryindustry
The Australian The Australian The Australian The Australian sheepmeatsheepmeatsheepmeatsheepmeat industryindustryindustryindustry
But as an industry …
we must continue to be sensitive to,
and respond to mainstream
consumer and community demands.
H Number of lamb sold for slaughter, south-west Western Australia
Average per farm
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1988-
89
1989-
90
1990-
91
1991-
92
1992-
93
1993-
94
1994-
95
1995-
96
1996-
97
1997-
98
1998-
99
1999-
00
2000-
01
2001-
02
2002-
03
2003-
04
2004-
05
2005-
06
Slaughter lamb
producers
J Flock composition, slaughter lamb producers, south-west Western Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Rams Ewes Wethers Lambs
%
1994-95
2004-05
WA farm gate prices move volatile than retail
Source: MLA's NLRS, ABS
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
calendar year
0
1
2
3
4$/kg cwt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14$/kg rwt
lamb saleyard price
lamb retail price*
* simple average of forequarter, leg and loin chops
retail up 74% since 1999saleyard up 120%