future cmp processing requirements...a little since q1 2013 forecast – japan a little stronger on...

FUTURE CMP PROCESSING REQUIREMENTSFUTURE CMP PROCESSING REQUIREMENTSKyle Flanigan & Michael Corbett

Linx ConsultinggJuly 10, 2013

NCCAVS CMPUG @ Semicon West

www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331

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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON

Linx ConsultingLinx ConsultingLinx ConsultingLinx Consulting

1. We create knowledge and develop unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry

2. We help our clients to succeed through our:• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and thin film processing industries:

– Semi – Packaging – Nano Technology

• Experience in the global chemicals industry

– LCD – PV – Other

• Experience at Device Producers• Experience at OEMs• Global network and capabilities• Advanced modeling capabilitiesg p


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Industry Analysis Reports OfferedIndustry Analysis Reports OfferedIndustry Analysis Reports OfferedIndustry Analysis Reports Offered

CMP Focused:1. CMP Technologies and Markets to the 11nm Node (5th edition)2. Specialty Abrasives in CMP (4th edition)3. CMP in TSV (2nd edition)4. Wafer Polishing Technologies and Markets

5. Advanced Thin Films for FEOL and BEOL Applications

6. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation: Technologies and Markets

7. Advanced Patterning Forecasting

8. Chemicals and Materials for TSV Applications

9. The Econometric Semiconductor Forecasting Service

10. Strategic Cost Model


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High Confidence Decision Support ServicesHigh Confidence Decision Support ServicesHigh Confidence Decision Support Services High Confidence Decision Support Services

PLANNING IDEAS TO MARKETBusiness Analysis

M&A / Due DiligenceDiversification / Expansion

Planning

IP DevelopmentValue Chain Analysis

Technology Assessment and Commercialization

SINGLE CLIENT SERVICES

SUPPPLY CHAIN OPTIMIZATION Quality System Auditing Or Pre-audit

AssessmentSupplier Quality System Benchmarking

MARKETING & SALESMarket Analysis/Monitoring

Market Forecasting and ModelingSupplier Quality System BenchmarkingQuality/Product Management System Set-up Or

AugmentationExcursion Management

Market Forecasting and ModelingCompetitive IntelligenceCustomer Perceptions


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SHORT TERM VISIBILITYSHORT TERM VISIBILITY


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Global Real GDP Growth: By RegionGlobal Real GDP Growth: By Region8

4

6

8

0

2

% C

hang

e

-4

-2 WorldU.S.AsiaEurope

%

• US: below trend in 2013 and slips below total world growth

-62007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EuropeLatin America

• Asia growth the highest, but region growth estimate has been shaved a little since Q1 2013 forecast– Japan a little stronger on new policies– China weaker after weak report for Q1 real GDP growth


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China weaker after weak report for Q1 real GDP growth• Eurozone recession continues through 2013, Europe overall flat


Q2 2013 Semiconductor ForecastQ2 2013 Semiconductor ForecastMSI grows roughly 50% faster than Global Real GDP in 2013, better than past two years, with MSI grows roughly 50% faster than Global Real GDP in 2013, better than past two years, with

acceleration in 2014acceleration in 2014

3,200

2,800SEMI MSIForecast

2,000

2,400

1,600

2,000

1,200

Shaded areas indicate US recessions

Annual Percent Change2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f

39.7 -3.5 -0.1 3.3 9.8 8.1


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80006 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Shaded areas indicate US recessions


Semiconductor Area ForecastSemiconductor Area ForecastSemiconductor Area ForecastSemiconductor Area Forecast

2 700

2,800Q2 2013 Forecast & History (May)Q1 2013 Forecast (Feb)

Semiconductors (MSI)

2,500

2,600

2,700 Q1 2013 Forecast (Feb)Q4 2012 Forecast (Dec 2012)

2 200

2,300

2,400

2,000

2,100

2,200

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I

Q2 2013 Forecast(May 2013)

2013Q1 2013Q2F 2013Q3F 2013Q4F 2014Q1F

MSI 2128 2380 2495 2329 2334

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


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MSI 2128 2380 2495 2329 2334%Change -1.6% 11.8% 4.8% -6.7% 0.2%


TRENDS IN CMP SLURRIES AND PADS FOR NEW DEVICES AND WAFERS


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Major Developments in CMP to DateMajor Developments in CMP to DateMajor Developments in CMP to DateMajor Developments in CMP to Date3,000,000

Introduction of MG last and POP

Introduction of finFET CMP

2,000,000

2,500,000

10nmIntroduction of 300 mm wafers

Introduction of direst STI

1,500,000

14nm

22nm

32nm

45nm

65nmI t d ti f

Introduction of Copper CMP

mm wafers

1,000,000

90nm

130nm

180nm

250nm

Introduction of Tungsten CMP

0

500,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Growth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # ToolsGrowth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # ToolsGrowth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # ToolsGrowth in CMP Consumables ($M) & # Tools

450

500$2,500# New ToolsSlurries & Pads ($M)

$687 $755$786

350

400

450

$2,000

$628 $666

$687$718

$755$

200

250

300

$1,000

$1,500

$983 $1,040 $1,078 $1,132 $1,191 $1,242100

150

00

$500

$ ,000

0

50

$02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Slurries Pads # New Tools


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Slurries Pads # New Tools


Major Developments in CMP Going ForwardMajor Developments in CMP Going ForwardMajor Developments in CMP Going ForwardMajor Developments in CMP Going Forward1,200,000

Introduction of III-V

Introduction of 450mm wafers

800,000

1,000,000CMP and new B/S

450mm Wafer CMP

Introduction of TSV

600,000 10nm

14nm

22nm

Introduction of finFET CMP

Introduction of Ge CMP

400,000

22nmfinFET CMP

0

200,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Defectivity RequirementsDefectivity Requirements –– Tools & ProcessTools & ProcessDefectivity Requirements Defectivity Requirements Tools & ProcessTools & Process

Control of the Tool• The trend is towards extremely low downforce in the polishing process• 1 to 2 psi is common at 14nm for oxide, nitride and poly (POP process) using ceria slurry• Silicon FinFET processing also uses low downforce CMP

• RPMs on both the platen and head have to be optimized– Higher RPM increases the removal rate but leads to more abrasion on the surface– Therefore lower RPMs are required

Control of the Pad• Pads

– Grooves should be free from debris due to groove cutting– Pads should not have sharp edges

• ConditioningConditioning– Optimum conditioning of the pad is of paramount importance. Grit size of conditioners

play an important role in defectivity control


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Defectivity RequirementsDefectivity Requirements –– ConsumablesConsumablesDefectivity Requirements Defectivity Requirements ConsumablesConsumables

Control of the Slurries• For 22nm and 14nm, the industry needs to have extremely tight control on the slurries and

pad quality

• In advanced slurries, morphology of the slurry particles will be critical– No agglomerations and angular particles– Need mostly spherical particles and to minimize the number of edges

• Trend to low abrasives or abrasive free – 0.5% or lower solids content as the slurry formulation trend is to greater chemo effect than mechanical effect

• Selectivity requirements will prove challenging to slurries as selectivity is increased tuned as a key point of the overall process control

• Galvanic corrosion needs to be controlled in-situ – this is controlled by using the correct ingredients/formulations

• Advanced slurry formulations may utilize 10 to 15 distinct ingredients


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New Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Materials are Increasing RapidlyNew Opportunities for Materials

R² = 0.9858405060

New Materials Required

The Quality Dilemma1 N M t i l ft f d i /

0102030

1990 2000 2010

1. New Materials are often found in / required for the most critical applications

2. New materials lead to new value chains3. New value chains lead to new sources4. New sources are usually unqualified


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1990s 2000s 2010+


SUPPLY CHAIN AND QUALITYSUPPLY CHAIN AND QUALITY


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SupplySupply--Chain OptimizationChain Optimization BackgroundBackgroundSupplySupply Chain Optimization Chain Optimization BackgroundBackground

• Market trend is to push supplier quality into the supply chain

• End customers (End-user) are pushing suppliers to avoid costly firefighting by pre-emptively qualifying the supply chain

• Some companies are developing collaborative programmes which are firewalled and fid i lconfidential

• Others are demanding more information with an expectation of supplier transparency for the whole supply chain.

• Suppliers need to set up effective audit trails for all sub suppliers

• This may lie within the capability of large suppliers, but small and medium size suppliers may not have the expertise to develop acceptable supply change qualification systems


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Future Quality RequirementsFuture Quality RequirementsFuture Quality RequirementsFuture Quality Requirements

• Quality Improvement– Increasing number of metals and elements in CofA

• 8 to 24 or full spectrum– Increased Sensitivity

• ppm -> ppb -> ppt• Inorganic chemicals regularly specified at ppt levels

– Function specifications becoming more specific• Resolution, DOF EL, line collapse, profile, adhesion, footing, toploss, LER, LWR• Selective etch rates• Polish rates, defectivity, dishing, y, g

• Service Improvement– Beyond SPC– Ship to stock qualificationShip to stock qualification

• Sub-Supplier Monitoring– Materials component supply analysis

Materials fingerprinting


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– Materials fingerprinting


Incumbent Supplier Base is being ChallengedIncumbent Supplier Base is being Challengedcu be t Supp e ase s be g C a e gedcu be t Supp e ase s be g C a e ged

New material formulations being introduced

Hendry ISS 2013 Hendry ISS 2013

New material formulations being introducedNew suppliers bring innovationMature formulations used for new applications

Technology cycles are being compressedNew suppliers have a steep learning curve

End-users have limited process characterization resources


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The Entire Value Chain is Being ChallengedThe Entire Value Chain is Being ChallengedThe Entire Value Chain is Being ChallengedThe Entire Value Chain is Being Challenged

End-UsersN d t h t i l lifi dNeed to have materials qualified

Need to track more of the supply chainNeed to control overheads

Handling many more materials

Prime SuppliersBeing held accountable for sub-supplier systems

Sub-SuppliersOriginal contracts did not call for stringent quality processes

Do not sell directly to end-user – it is not our Do not have capabilities to track activities at sub-suppliers

Need to understand appropriate levels of spending and scale to these operations

yproblem

Do not know how to implement systems

Need to understand appropriate levels of spending d l t th ti


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and scale to these operations


Supply Chain Optimization ChallengeSupply Chain Optimization ChallengeSupply Chain Optimization ChallengeSupply Chain Optimization Challenge

• Companies at all levels in the value chain need to increase the levels of resourcing required to support the semiconductor industry.levels of resourcing required to support the semiconductor industry.

– Prime & sub-suppliers have multiple Tier 1 end users in the industry– End users have unique audit or pre-audit template required– Customer pre-audits and audits require significant resources to complete– Each process increases the depth and breadth of questions– Advanced process nodes require complete re-evaluation of established C of A

• Suppliers at all levels are struggling to meet expectations– New suppliers to the industry do not have the resources available

Older products have may have significant supply gaps but these will not be– Older products have may have significant supply gaps but these will not be identified or closed to meet ramp cycles

– Suppliers at all levels need to make new investments in quality systems and need guidance from a strategic materials supply chain organization.


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What is Happening Today?What is Happening Today?What is Happening Today?What is Happening Today?

IC Manufacturers are making changes• Focusing on formulation sub-suppliers• Are evaluating strategic supplier readiness• Imposed significant fines for quality manual violations• Actively eliminating under performing suppliers

Suppliers need assistance to overcome barriers:• Executive Sponsorship

– Assignment of talent and resources for change– Commitment to attainment of quality goals

• Education– Understanding WHAT and WHY and HOW MUCH

• Involvement– All aspects of sales and operations are stakeholders for quality metrics

• Price


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– End users need to pay for the appropriate level of testing and production capabilities


Impact of ExcursionsImpact of Excursions

Detection location

CIMPACT to: Raws Qualified Product On Wafer Packed Chips Consumer

Product

Business

Operating capitalOperating capital

Good Will

Technical

ID Root Cause

Recurrence of Issue


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Why Linx?Why Linx?Why Linx?Why Linx?The advanced materials and tooling market is again evolving. New platform development iscostly and risky. End-users are identifying new strategic partners and suppliers who they canrely on to help meet their business goals. Supply chain risk has been identified as a significantvulnerability In response to this FABs are rethinking strategic partnerships to focus on suppliersvulnerability. In response to this, FABs are rethinking strategic partnerships to focus on supplierswho have consistently met project deliverables and not slipped on manufacturing rampschedules. We can help throughout this evolution.


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Advanced Materials Advanced Materials L i /Ch i iL i /Ch i iLearning/CharacterizationLearning/Characterization

• Well controlled manufacturing at the prime supplier leads to SupplierS b S b p ppproduct qualification

• Changed process at the sub-supplier changes end product

Sourcing Receiving Distillation

SupplierSubSupplier

SubSupplier

performance

• Process audits identify areas of interest to be investigated

Reaction Reaction QC

during an excursionPurification Formulation ShippingPurification

• Sub-supplier process mapping is now expected during product development

Packaging

Shipping

Purification

Application Test

• CofA are not sufficient for adv. materials


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Shipping Application TestQC • GOAL: Eliminate Variation


SummarySummarySummarySummary

• Continued strong organic industry growth for balance of 300mm ramp out

• Many new CMP applications including:– 450mm wafers– TSV– FEOL – Ge and III-V– New barrier and seed

• Multiple new device types – MRAM and RRAM on the horizon to replace NAND and DRAM mean for new opportunities

• Supply Chain Management is key differentiator. The Impact of excursions grows with time– Quality and supply chain sources of deviation most be better understood– Companies with strong supply chain management are the most likely to expand at or p g pp y g y p

better than the industry growth rate.


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future cmp processing requirements...a little since q1 2013 forecast – japan a little stronger on...

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