fusarium head blight outbreak frequency under a changing climate environment j m fernandes, w pavan...
Post on 19-Dec-2015
217 views
TRANSCRIPT
Fusarium Head Blight Outbreak Frequency under a Changing Climate Environment
J M Fernandes, W Pavan and E Del Ponte
Introduction Southern states – dryland Spring types – grown during winter –
spring season Warming temperatures Increase in precipitation
60´s 90´s
Wheat yield-reducing factors in Brazil
Soil fertility (Al+++) Late Frost Sprouting Insects (BYDV) Fungal Diseases
Wheat diseases epidemiology
Pathogen Host Environment (climate)
If we know enough …..then we can model!
A Generic Disease Model Approach
A Generic Disease Model Approach Model
Parameterization All disease parameters
are read from a XML file
Plant organs (disease targets) get from crop model
A Generic Disease Model Approach Epidemiological
simulation model with three scales of spatial hierarchy
Leaves-Plant-Field Lesions Expansion
rate (Stochastic)
Linking Crop Models to Disease Models
Crop models legacy (DSSAT) Disease simulation models Models written in different computers
language Ability to run models directly in the Web
Linking Crop Models to Disease Models
Linking Crop Models to Disease Models
Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables
FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT
Monitoring spore density in the air…
Spore cloud model
A simulation example...
Cumulative infection risks
Wet season Dry season
FHB Model Applications
HTML / XML / JPG
XHTML / XMLHTTP Request
HTTP Request
ModelPersistence
Control
View
SDB
Class FilterJSP
ActionServlet Request
Request
SimulationResults
Response
Response
SGDC
WS
CropSim
SMPD
Crop-FHB Model
Climate Change Studies
FHB Model
On Season Warning System
Study area and climate dataset Passo Fundo ( 28°15'00"S ,
52°25'12"W). Embrapa Wheat, (over 25 years of
FHB records) A long-term daily climate dataset
was available starting in1930´s Pergamino, Argentina
FHB - Multiple simulations
Simulations were performed for a 30-day period starting June 1st.
Infection periods were computed in a period of time from the 4th to as long as the 20th day following beginning of wheat heading (time of flowering).
Exploratory analysis
FHB – Multiple Simulation Results, Passo Fundo, Brazil
FHB – Multiple Simulation Results Pergamino, Argentina
FHB x ENSO PhasesPasso Fundo, Brazil Pergamino, Argentina
El Niño La Niña
Wet Dry
Exploring South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Southeastern, SA
South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Passo Fundo, Brazil
XX
South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Pergamino, Argentina
X
Some highlights….
Minimum tillage plays a minor rule Weather is likely the driving force for
epidemics Epidemics outbreaks are more frequent
than before The environment is highly favorable to
FHB development La Niña years are less favorable South Atlantic Surface Temperature may
be useful for seasonal forecast.
Further research....
DBS
Wheat Growth Model Weather and climate forecast
Panel of Experts
Agronomists
Economists
Farmers
Crop consultants
Management Practices
CropsiCropsim-m-WheatWheat
FHB x Heading dates
More Resistant CultivarsChemical control
Late Frost
Crop Failure
Thanks for your attention……