furniture industry in 2020

7/24/2019 Furniture Industry in 2020

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The Furniture market in 2020

The year 2020 is a long time in human timebut tomorrow in economic times.

Foresee the future is pure hard science. To ride the wave of change successfully

organisations must apply a fine-grained approach when they read megatrends. They

must study economic and cultural megatrends and build scenario to foresee the

impacts on micro-markets and segments of the Furniture industry, so you can invest in

confidence and, above all, act on them!

We have analysed tens of megatrends and have tried to capture the essence of the

foreseeable changes that may impact either the manufacturing or the retail end of our

industry in the next 10 years. From Economy to culture, we have looked at what will

contribute to change our lives tomorrow.

To demonstrate what that approach looks like in practice, lets take the example of

one of the important megatrends we have analysed, ageing population in western

countries, and looked at what it will do in terms of economy. We found that healthcare will grow more quickly than it did before and so will grow the furniture industry

related to health care or ageing population, despite a decline of the overall furniture

market. As an example, Dreams plc, a UK based bed manufacturer and distributor sees

opportunities to sell a variety of different bed types to elderly consumers, including

powered and adjustable beds that sell at a higher price than traditional beds.

Figure1: Impact on health care and furniture markets of change in age mix

Also suppliers that will enhance the user experience and functionality by paying

attention to the requirements of this market segment will reap the benefits of its

niche strategy. For the do-it-yourself, an ageing population may mean one that

buys more high-margin do-it-for-me services rather than low-margin VETA or RTA

products only.


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While the global market for furniture in European countries may decrease in volumes

globally, organizations that will make informed decisions will continue to gain market

share in dollars revenue. Capitalizing on megatrends to capture growth opportunities

will help organizations to make better strategic decisions and better resource

allocation.

1-What will be the relationships between theUnited States, the EU, China and Indiain 2020?

The world economy will be 2/3 bigger in 2020 than it was in 2005. Global GDP willgrow at an average annual rate of 3.0-3.5% between 2006 and 2020. The United Stateswill remain the world superpower, with a total GNP of approximately $17 trillion to$18 trillion and a growth of 3% a year compared with 2.1% for the EU27 and less than1% for Japan. However, an economic survey released in September by the US FederalReserve seems to be more pessimistic about the expected annual growth. The growthexpected may be comprised between 2.5% and 3.0% for the decade, a growth withoutsignificant job creation and a brand new situation for the US market.

The United States will remain the most important country in terms of all thedimensions of power as result of the size of its GDP, its military might, internalcohesion and persistent technological lead.

The US$ will remain the key international reserve currency. Europe will continue to

lack the cohesion to achieve superpower status. The transatlantic economic

relationship will remain the most important globally, but its relative importance termsof trade, investment and share of global GDP, will fall as Asias rises.

The share of the European Union and the United States in world income will stay about

the same in 2020 as it is in 2010. The US will maintain one of the fastest growth rates

in the industrialised world, thanks to its dynamic demographics. The EU will make up

for a slower growth through territorial expansion, growing to a club of 30 countries

approximately. Propelled by fast growth in China and India, Asia will increase its slice

of world GDP from 39% in 2010 to 43% in 2020. China in particular, will increase its

share of the world GDP from 16% today to 19% joining the club of the leading economic


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blocs. But it will be too soon to talk of Asias century. On a per-capita basis, China and

India will remain far poorer than western markets and the region faces a host of

downside risks. In general, Asia will narrow the gap in wealth, power and influence but

will not close it.

Share in world GDP (at PPP) Source: EIU

From a geographical stand point, the greatest growth opportunities, between now and2020 lie to Non OECD countries. The emerging markets particularly China and India

will provide significant opportunities over the next decade. By 2020, China will match

the United States as the world largest consumer markets. Measured at purchasing

power parity index (1), China will have closed the gap with the US by 2020. There is 12

million Chinese households today with annual incomes greater than $7,500; By 2020

there will be at least 80 million. However, although Chinas middle class could make

up as much as 40% of its population by 2020, double from what it is now, it is still well

below the 60% share in the US. Income levels will still lag well behind those of mature

markets, limiting growth in mid-market segments. Global retail companies have

recently begun to pay more attention to India as the increasing number of urbanconsumers has sparked a mini consumer boom. Unlike consumers elsewhere in Asia,

Indians appear more prepared to spend than to save. There are now some 300 million

middle-income earners making $3,000 to $5,000 a year with strong desire to resemble

to consumer of the western countries. However, Indias consumer boom will be

constrained by low average incomes and restrictions on foreign investments in the

retail sector. In Europe, Eastern Europe and Russia also offer expansion opportunities

right in Europes backyard, an advantage for European companies compared to US

ones that have to cross oceans to penetrate new markets.


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2-Cultural Trends

Globalization

The globalization and networking technologies will enable companies to use the worldas their supply base for talent and materials. The pace and extend of globalisation will

be the most single important determinant of world economic growth. If protectionism

were to take greater hold, the consequence for the world would be substantial and

adverse. The prospects for faster liberalisation are constrained by the fact that the

United States is now benefitting less than others from increased globalization.

Urbanization

We will be 7.6 billion human in 2020, and the vast majority of us will live in cities.

Population growth has intensified the density of population in large cities and favouredurban sprawl to the detriment of quality of air, traffic condition and efficient use of

land. According to a study of the UNO, 55% of the world population will live in cities in

2020 compared to 29% 60 years ago. As a result, we will be living and working in

increasingly smaller spaces.

Environmental awareness

The most important concern is environmental change, specifically climate change. It

will affect every aspect of our lives, rich or poor, like access to water, food and

health. We will increasingly be aware of our carbon footprint, and the effect of our

style of living has on the environment. Some plants developed to aid clean airproduction will be set for a move indoors, while, elsewhere plants could be used to

clean water to enable greater recycling of the precious resource. In an effort to

increase energy efficiency, much of the heat in the Intelligent Home or workplace will

come from solar thermal energy and recaptured heat from generators. Daylight

sensors and occupancy sensors mean lighting isn't used when it's not needed, but

workers are also given a huge amount of control over their own environment,

regulating air temperature and flow, and lighting levels and direction, from their own

work station. We will improve our quality of life at home or in the workplace while

reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Open-space Design

As we will be living and working in increasingly crowded cities and smaller spaces,

rooms will become multi-functional. Already today, a major theme of many design

concepts is the integration of different rooms. We will see a notable move away from

the idea of separate bathrooms and bedrooms. Kitchens will remain the hub of the

home. From revolving benches to plant-filled and portable kitchens, there are some

potentially radical new ideas for the future of our rooms.


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Collaboration

The advent of laptops, wi-fi and BlackBerries means that high-tech workers are no

longer tethered to their desks, and the office of the future will be designed to let

workers roam. As businesses are coming to realize that the best ideas are often

generated in casual conversation, designers will increasingly incorporate informal

team areas into office environments, to encourage chance encounters and impromptumeetings. And, as this effort is made to better utilize the diminishing personal living

space we have.

Cultural diversity

Finally, increasing waves of international migrations will mean that urban areas in all

parts of the world will become more multicultural. People from different ethnic,

cultural and religious backgrounds now live together in cities. Cultural diversity will

have important impacts for identity of a city and how built environments are

managed. Cultural mix will pace new demand on urban planning to mediate betweenconflicting lifestyles and expression of culture. Conflicts around religious building,

burial arrangements, ritual animal slaughter and building aesthetics will need to be

properly tackled. On the positive side, it will create a massive influx of furniture

exports and imports and create opportunities on a global scale.

3-How will we work in 2020?

As velocity, relationship, customization and efficiency becomes more critical,

employees skills will also need to improve, especially when there is a problem to

solve. In this chapter we will see how creativity, problem solving skills, collaborative

team work and relationship skills will see an increase between now and 2020

Specialization

Running an efficient organisation is no easy task but it is unlikely on its own to offer

lasting competitive advantage. Products are too easily commoditised: automation of

simple processes is increasingly widespread. Management skills, interpersonal

relationship and problem solving skills are seen as the most important qualities for

employees over the next 10 years. These skills are particularly important in areas such

as customer service, strategy and business development, knowledge management,

where personal chemistry or creative insight matter more than rules or processes.

Improving productivity of knowledge workers through technology, training and

organisational change will be the major challenge for the next 10 years.

Collaboration

By 2020 knowledge workers may find themselves sitting at the intersection of multiple

collaborative workspaces, plucking needles from enterprise-haystacks, while being

supported by teams of software robots that make them more productive, just as


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manual workers are assisted on assembly lines by power tools and robots. These

workers of the future are also likely to seat down in organisations with very different

structures. Increased collaboration will be a defining feature of the company of 2020.

Whether it is suppliers interacting with vendors, salespeople with customers,

employees with each other or companies with their partners, high quality relationship

with outside parties will become more important as a source of competitive advantage

between now and 2020. We believe we will see a lot more collaborative problem

solving inside and outside companies. The real focus of management attention will be

on the processes that are the hardest or the least desirable to automate.

With a new way of working will come a new way of managing. Supervisors will move

away from keeping the team working, dealing with things like time-keeping to take

more operational and strategic decisions. Creating this self-sufficient workforce will

not go without a challenge.

Creativity

As said, the focus of management will be on innovation, customer service wherepersonal chemistry or creative insight matters more than rules and process. As a

result, emphasis will be placed on creativity, design, marketing skills, partnership

management, all outward-facing and knowledge based skills.

But improving the productivity of knowledge workers will prove to be far more

difficult than anticipated. Whereas the output of a manual worker can be measured in

units per hour, measuring ideas per hour or e-mails per day give little indication of

actual productivity for a knowledge worker. A company needs a process that

structures, improves and evaluates the creative process thoughts that flows freely

through the company. Also, some companies are already taking steps to measure and

manage so called right brain thinking. As an example, they focus on how thecustomers feel the whole experience of using the product rather than improving the

features of the product. These are early examples of what we believe will be a long

and lasting trend toward creative management.

Exactly how to improve knowledge-work productivity is one of the most important

economic issues of our time observes Thomas Davenport in his book Thinking for a

living.


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But perhaps the biggest challenge of all for the manufacturing end of our industry,

especially in western countries, will be attracting people to the manufacturing sector,

as long as this sector is seen as the poor relation.

4-Will Google still dominate the world in 2020?

The last 10 years have been dominated by the rise of Google and social networks, thesurprising resurgence of Apple, and the gradual decline of Microsoft and Yahoo. While

technology changes, peoples needdo not. We will still need to connect, exchange,

compete and network.

Social Medias

Already today 96% of millennials have joined a social network. Life online will alter

the way we think imperceptibly. Our experience of private and public space and time

will continue to change too. Facebook will have long overcome Google as the

preferred homepage for internet users, but it will also be our anchor wherever we go.On our mobile phone, on our kitchen TV, our bathroom mirror in our home town or on

the other side of the world. Facebook will become the giant network that no one can

escape: emails will disappear; Facebook will be the universal Open ID. Or would that

be QQ & Renren that dominate Chinas social Medias landscape today?

Contextualization

There will be a further blurring of the spatial and temporal boundaries of work, home

and travel. We will see an increase in nomad workers with skills in service, knowledge

and ICT industries. Mixed reality, Machine to machine communications, smart objects

will concur to create the internet of robots. Build-in sensors like temperature, light,

humidity sensors will be used to extend the reach of already existing online services by

providing live information about where users are in space and in time. It will allow

stores to create instant and personalized content for a passer-by based on his points of

interest, but also, people to interact without requiring us both to be free at the same

time. V-commerce will replace e-commerce, with 3D-virtual equivalents of high street

stores. Well never again buy furniture without placing the piece in its planned

environment thanks to our mobile phone and the digital copy of our home.

Augmented RealityAugmented Reality will use facial recognition and tracking technology. It will

superimpose content and data over the picture of a person seen through a camera

lens. It will allow you to maintain different profiles for your public persona versus your

private one, switching between them as desired. Each profile will be associated with

contact details, web links, social networking profile and information about what are

you searching for, auto-tagged.


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As youre walking downthe street, a Facebook-like platform will match your profile to

stores near you and will create an alarm on your cellular phone if there is a match

between a store and an auto-taggedproduct you searching for.

As an example, a person that is looking for a European style red couch with a price

point of less than $1,500 will come in your store. A picture is taken as he comes in,

will be augmented with his profile and his auto-tagrequest. A sales person will

then be able to take him to the section that matches his request and engage with himimmediately.

Of course, implementing that type of feature will be a challenge, but not impossible.

It will depend on the willingness of the information provider to find the appropriate

economic model. Also, peoples profile will need to have their profile and auto-tag

request up-to-date to make the information relevant.

The application may sound a bit frightening at first, given its capabilities. However,the company that will develop and market the application will need to protect and

respects users privacy. It will also need to correlateits settings with their Facebook

page privacy settings. We think that the importance of this addition will lie in the fact

that it will expand the concept of instant personalization. We have to wonder how

long it will be until instant personalization becomes the default, rather than the

exception.

Mobility

We will have a single number for life which will follow us from home to homethroughout our entire lives and across the world. Mobility combined with the sensor

economy will enable the concept of home Hub. Our homes will have identity of their

own separate from ours and will be fully connected. It will give access to unique

content, applications or services that will enrich peoples lives in a tangible way. The

Digital Home Hub, a personalized, Facebook-like, 3D identity of our homes will

remains with us for the duration of our stay, will represent every layer of pertinent

information that is important to our home world and will be carefully stored for us

to share with friends and/or to grant access to providers to enrich our lives or simply

make it easier for us.


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5-The world of Manufacturing in 2020

The globalisation of manufacturing has been the hallmark of the past 20 years. The

transfer of jobs in the manufacturing sector from developed markets to emerging

markets will continue over the next decade and beyond. Despite the expected strong

growth in wages in many emerging markets, the differential with average wages levels

in the developed world will still be enormous in 2020. In Chinas case, the averagewage will rise about 15% of the US and EU15 level in 2020 compared to 5% now. The

eastern members of Europe will rise about one third of the EU15 average. It also

implies that the competitive advantage of Eastern Europe compared to Asian or Latin

American emerging economies will be at risk, especially in activities where high

transport costs do not give the eastern countries a competitive advantage.

Product & Process Innovation

Megatrends such as Demographic shifts, environmental awareness, urbanization, new

urban lifestyle will have a significant impact on our industry and will spur product and

process innovation. As manufacturers seek to optimise cost control, operational

efficiencies, the answer for many organisations will be to disaggregate the chain of

manufacturing processes into its component elements, some locally delivered, other

centralised, and others a mixture of both.

Mass Customization

Sub-assembly plants or suppliers will be built in low cost economies in order to reap

the benefits of long, simple production runs, seek operational efficiencies while

configuration-to-orders centres will be established in local markets. Generic, high

volume manufacturing processes will continue to shift to lower costs locations, while

final assembly processes will often be localised near the end customer in response to

rising demand for personalisation. Greater customization of standards design will be a

central attribute of the 2020 manufacturers. Modular design will be critical to


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competitive advantage. While delivering manufacturing volumes, it will also enable

rapid customization. `

To conclude this section, a whole shift in manufacturing capacity is not on the cards in

the next 10 years. The attraction of low cost economies is much greater for someindustrial sectors than others. Where products are labour intensive, high volume and

low transport costs, and the customer is price sensitive, like in the small home

appliances sector, low wage economies will have an advantage. Where volumes are

lower and capital investment, local design and regulation constraints and transport

costs higher, like in the white goods sector, manufacturers will continue to settle

within range of the end-market.

5-Will shops even exist in 2020?

The advent of convergence of several technologies raises the question how will ourshopping experience be in 10 years from now? Despite our provocative introduction to

this section, we believe that technology is not the main driver of changes for the next

10 years but the platform upon which retailers will build the customer experience.

At the retail level, the benefits of further consolidation will reduce. Cost efficiency

will be still critical but no longer a differentiator as much as a cost of entry to a

market. As an example, for Blyth Inc a $1.6 billion designer and marketer of home

decorative and fragrance products, you reach a point where it is difficult to take any

more out of costs.Some other companies have already reduced their inventory to the

point they operate on a negative working capital.

Multi-channel marketing will experience growth as companies internet presence

becomes more commonplace and direct mailing strategies becomes more personalised

and more effective. However, market saturation, channel conflict and margin

compression will limit its potential in the long term.

Are these strategies based on efficiency suited to a long term competitive advantage?


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Brand

Branding is one answer. Brand does and will increasingly stand for consistency inquality, value and image. Retailers are more concerned about decreasing loyalty than

any other sector of the industry. Brand strength will become a more important of

competitive advantage over the next 10 years. Many retailers will pursue brand

extension strategies to drive home this advantage and increase their share of

consumer wallet. In the US, Home depot is piloting a format that involves adjacent

gas stations and convenience stores based on the models developed in France by

Hypermarkets. In a globalised marketplace, brand strength will also be an important

source of advantage and will keep smaller retailers from being disintermediated by the

Wal-marts of the world.

Personalization & Proximity

But regardless of their size, retailers will define a new dimension for generating a

competitive advantage. Price and quality will matter as much as ever, but customers

will place more emphasis on personalisation. Product and services will be

customizable, leading companies to adjust their level of service depending on

customers preferences and their importance to the business. At the retail level, this

will manifest in differentiated shopping experiences and in increased customer

intimacy. Virtual shops on the internet will capture the interest of customer and lead

into visiting stores. Stores and in-stores service will be engineered to connect with the

customer through personalised customer service, attractive and easy-to-navigate store

layout and specialisation of assortment. Thanks to technology, additional attention

will be put on analysing results of the internet pre-sales process as much as

promotions from direct mail campaigns and feed the information back to

manufacturers. In the next 10 years, customer relationship management will become

more commonplace and sophisticated as retailers improve their data analysis and

capture skills.


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The moment of product or service delivery will be increasingly managed, monitored

and measured. Today, Dreams plc leaves fragranced sachets on its newly delivered

beds, like a hotel leaves mints for its guests. Of all the areas, the delivery especially

must not be commoditised. A recent personal experience make me think that retailers

must take into consideration that consumers have increasingly busy lives and have no

time to compensate for the failure of the retailers after-sales process. Not only your

service must irreproachable at the store level but also during the delivery process if

you want to keep your customer satisfied with your company.

Retailers will need to replicate the same magic with suppliers as they do with

customers. Retailers will need to make the supplier buy into the whole mission of your

company, not just take orders for furniture, so they can develop a long term

competitive advantage over their competition.

Finally, Consumers will become part of an integral instantaneous feed-back loop to

product development and service quality through social networks. The word of mouth

will become the most important source of referrals, higher than it is today, because

the social Medias will have structured this human process.

7-What does this all mean for us all?

Companies will be subject to a variety of centrifugal forces over the next 10 years.

Outside suppliers will reach more deeply into companies internal processes,

increasing external dependencies. Revenues will become diversified across new

geographic markets, as will customerspreferences.

Employees will be spread across more territories. Head offices will look less uniform

too as managers from emerging countries will begin to fill top level corporate

positions.

Consumers will expect personalised service and will put a premium on the quality of

local relationships. Technologies will grant them access to personalised promotions.

All the elements combined will give them a feeling of uniqueness, a truly one-on-one

relationship from prospection to after-sales that has been the holy grail of the

retailers marketing departments.

Because the flow and amount of information will become increasingly complex to

manage both retailers and manufacturers will need a system that will allow them to

manage more complex data while increasing the flexibility required by consumers.

Faster and better collaboration will be essential among all industry participants todeliver on promise.

Both manufacturers and retailers will require more flexibility from their software

suppliers to provide them with solutions that are affordable, scalable and platform

agnostic. Cloud computing combined with Service-oriented-architecture will address

these requests while allowing manufacturers and retailers to focus on the core of their

business.


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The future of selling will become increasingly polarized. Selling will either be

relationship intensive or technology intensive, depending on the strategic value of the

customer. Low-value customers will targeted via electronic Medias services and

features that track and analyse their buying history. Data mining and customer

relationship management will be critical to succeeding in this automated, low cost

channel. High-Value customers that need a solution sell that explains how the pieces

fit together and consists largely of free consulting services mixed with software tools.

The sales cycle will be longer as the problems increase in complexity.

At the data level, the absence of standards will continue to make the creation of data

very expensive for furniture manufacturers. The industry will need to promote the

creation of standards so that data creation and delivery can be automated.

Non strategic, or commodity, supply relationships will be outsourced, offshored and

automated processes. The level of communication will need to increase at least

tenfold between now and 2020 to support the requirements in term of data exchange.

As said previously, we believe that technology is not the main driver of changes for the

next 10 years but the platform upon which retailers will build the customerexperience. However, technology will be the single best way to increase the overall

performance of the furniture industry. Whereas the focus of IT investments in the past

has been on improving internal administrative efficiencies, in the future such

investments will increasingly focus on increasing the efficiency of the relationship

between suppliers and customers and, of knowledge workers. Indeed we predict that

investment in such technology is expected to dominate IT budgets, since both

administrative and process requirements will have been met. The need for new ways

to collaborate and communicate is the most apparent and urgent need. What will be

needed, are tools that will be more attuned to distributed, team-based working

practices on the scale of the whole industry. The industry will need to adopt aplatform which makes possible for thousands of customers and suppliers to collaborate

efficiently on the design, production and delivery of personalized projects to

consumers. Remote technologies will be put to work enabling anyone to make inputs

at a distance. The second area in which new tools will emerge, relates to the handling

of unstructured data. Creating a communal repository of data, will be the first step

towards an inter-enterprise, frictionless platform. But there is no point in having such

a system unless a culture of collaboration and sharing will have already been

established.

Once these foundations will be in place, it will become possible to deploy the third

and mot speculative type of technology: systems that combine information fromcollaboration spaces, structured databases and unstructured data sources to provide

decision-support functions, some degree of automation and even a much thought after

degree of artificial intelligence across the whole industry. Such software platform will

not replace human interactions but will amplify their abilities.


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Even if all these emerging technologies were ready for deployment today, other

hurdles would still remain. At the moment, all of this software is still delivered in old-

fashioned, piece fashion. New ways must be developed to combine pieces of software

in flexible ways to suit the working practices of different companies and sub-industries

practices. Concerns such as data security, integrity, compatibility and costs will have

to be addressed.

Innovation in the next 10 years will be largely software driven. Companies like ours

could morph into service provider and integrator, serving the collaboration needs of

the whole furniture industry. We would sell infrastructure and intelligence to

companies that will embed their software capabilities into the platform to provide

new technologies, content and data delivery to the right user at the right time in the

right place.

Providing new services and content means either having to come up with new

applications internally, or forging and managing partnerships with others. The latter

approach will mean an increased co-operation with all the industry participants that

have the goods and services to keep the customer satisfied at the speed required by

the furniture industry.

The shift in the furniture industry also looks set to change the traditional relationship

between manufacturers, retailers in one hand and suppliers of this industry on the

other hand. As the platform standardizes rules and processes across the industry, that

both manufacturers and retailers will outsource a greater number of low-value tasks,

they will become capable to focus on what will make a real difference in the eye of

the consumer: Service.Are you ready?


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Appendix:

Purchasing parity Index (PPP): Comparisons at market exchange rates systematically

overestimate the incomes of rich relative to poor countries because non tradable

services are much cheaper in poor countries. Also, exchange rates fluctuate for

reasons that have little to do with the purchasing power of a currency. Purchasing

power parity (PPP) weights are conversion factors that eliminate the difference inprice levels between countries. GDP at PPP thus measures the volume of goods and

services produced at a common set of prices.

VETA: Very-easy-to-assemble

RTA: Ready-to-assemble

Sources:

1. IMF International Monetary Fund

2.

United States Federal Reserve Bank

3. Eurostat

4. UNO Habitat

5. OECD Main Economic Indicators

6. Economist Intelligence Unit

7. McKinsey

8. Harvard Business School

9.

Trendwatch

10. Trendhunter

11. Trendcentral

12. Wired

13. Socialnomics

14. Thomas Davenport - Thinking for a living

15. TAT The Astonishing Tribe

16.

20-20 Technologies internal data compiled by Business Intelligence group.


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20-20 Technologies:

Our Mission: 20-20 Technologies is committed to providing the interior design and

furniture industry with a platform empowering people to collaborate on creating and

delivering personalized projects.

Our vision: making ideal spaces come to life

20-20 Technologies is the world's leading provider of computer-aided design, business

and software solutions tailored for the interior design and furniture industries. Dealers

and retailers use its desktop and Web-based products and solutions for the home and

office markets. 20-20 offers a unique proprietary end-to-end solution, integrating the

entire breadth of functions in interior design. It provides a bridge for data

communication from the point-of-sale to manufacturing, including computer-aided

engineering and plant floor automation software. Operating in eleven countries with

more than 500 employees, 20-20 is a publicly traded company (TWT) on the Toronto

Stock Exchange (TSX)

furniture industry in 2020

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