fundamentals. the seasons for growing reap what you sow
TRANSCRIPT
Fundamentals
The Seasons for Growing
Reap What You Sow
THE 5 BASIC INSTITUTIONS
Providing The
Instruments
FormingThe
Person
GOV.
MARKETPLACE
FAMILY
CHURCH
SCHOOL
Order
Goods and
Services
The Person
Orientation In Life
Learning
Economic Growth & Production
Human Contribution
•Population size(fertility)
•Human Capital (all skills)
•Technology
Physical Contribution
•Capital (1% … always there …always)
(1) Fertility
Fertility : Western Nations
Weekly Worship vs. Fertility
Baby Boom Retirement Begins
Decreasing Human Contribution to GDP Growth
(2) Human Capital
THE 5 BASIC INSTITUTIONS
Providing The
Instruments
FormingThe
Person
GOV.
MARKETPLACE
FAMILY
CHURCH
SCHOOL
Order
Goods and
Services
The Person
Orientation In Life
Learning
Education( SCHOOL )
MEDIAN LIFETIME EARNINGS
Source: http://www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/collegepayoff-complete.pdfp. P. 3
Lifetime Earnings by Education
Achieved
Marriage
Belonging vs Rejection
2.9
2.62.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
Ave
rag
e G
PA
Enl
igsh
/Mat
h C
ombi
ned
INTACT STEP COHABIT (BOTHNATURAL)
COHABIT (ONENATURAL)
DIVORCED NEVER MARRIED
GPA English/Math by Family StructureSource: Adolescent Health Survey, Wave I. Adolescents grade 7-12.
$100
$27
$127
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Com
para
tive
Inco
me
%
Average Unmarried Male Premium Average Married Male
Marriage Premium in Male Income
Source Antovics, K. & Town, R. Am Econ Review V 94, (2004) pp 317-321
+ =
US Total (Males) 1982-2010% “Unskilled” Not Working:
single
single
Cohab
Cohab
Married
Married
US Total (Males) “Not Working” Professional Class
singleCohabMarried
Unemployed
Fraction of Occupation
Class single
Cohab
Married
Retreat from Marriage: Black Men (25-54)
by Education Level 1970-2010)
Retreat from Marriage:Black Men (25-54)
Unemployment Differentials
Marriage (Red) and non-Marriage (blue)
Proportion of MarriedHeads of Households 1960-1990
Growth in Productivity: Down
MARRIED
DIVORCED
SINGLE
Number of Non-Marital Sexual Partners: Percent in an Always Intact Marriage
Source: NSFG 1995
Male Employment 1962-2010Males aged 25-54; Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPS)
Family Intactness in USA
Index of Belonging and Rejection USA
Worship of God
( Religion)
MEDIAN LIFETIME EARNINGS
Source: http://www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/collegepayoff-complete.pdfp. P. 3
2.9
2.62.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
Ave
rag
e G
PA
Enl
igsh
/Mat
h C
ombi
ned
INTACT STEP COHABIT (BOTHNATURAL)
COHABIT (ONENATURAL)
DIVORCED NEVER MARRIED
GPA English/Math by Family StructureSource: Adolescent Health Survey, Wave I. Adolescents grade 7-12.
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
Aver
age
GPA
Enl
igsh
/Mat
h Co
mbi
ned
WEEKLY+ <LESS THAN MONTHLY NEVER
GPA (English & Math) by Religious Practice
Source: Adolescent Health Survey, Wave I. Adolescents grade 7-12.
WEEKLY+ MONTHLY+
<MONTHLY/NEVER
WEEKLY/MONTHLY+
INTACT/COHABIT(NATURAL)
ANY REJ ECTION
2.48
2.722.75
2.94
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
Ave
rag
e G
PA
(E
ng
lish
& M
ath
Co
mb
ine
d)
GPA
Economic Growth + Production
Human Contribution
•Population size
•Human Capital (all skills)
•Technology
Physical Contribution
•Capital (1% … always there …always)
• Economic Activity is driven by the Human Capital of the
Working Head of Household.
• Economic growth of the future is decided by the Human Capital Formation of the next generation in the household.
• The child is the economic agent of the future.
Who Says? Nobel Laureates:
Edward Prescott (2004) Business cycle macroeconomics
George Akerlof (2001) Keynesian market economics
James Heckman (2000) Econometric theory of samples
Robert Lucas (1995) Macro growth theory of expectations
Gary Becker (1992) Neoclassical liberal micro econ behav.
?
THE 5 BASIC INSTITUTIONS
Providing The
Instruments
FormingThe
Person
GOV.
MARKETPLACE
FAMILY
CHURCH
SCHOOL
Order
Goods and
Services
The Person
Orientation In Life
Learning
The Young Intact Married Family with ChildrenThat Worships God Weekly
National and Global Strategy
EVERYTHING ELSE
FALLS IN PLACE
EVERYTHING
