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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Mutual Fund Research

Fund of the Month

Investment horizon: Three years and above

Accumulate on dips… The volatility in Indian markets has increased near all-time high levels as the markets digested the strong gains accrued in January 2015. The banking sector has been at the forefront in sectoral performance in recent months. However, after having outperformed, banking stocks have witnessed some profit booking (CNX Bank Nifty down around 10% from its recent high in January 2015). The Union Budget has paved the way for the increased expenditure on building infrastructure, domestic manufacturing and increased foreign capital. All these measures will lead to a structural improvement in economic growth. The banking sector being the barometer of the economy will lead the improvement in earnings growth and ultimately performance. Any sharp correction in the overall market should be utilised as an opportunity to accumulate banking funds with an investment horizon of two to three funds.

Correction gives opportunity to invest; banking sector outperforms in improving economic environment

Post the Q3FY15 earnings, banking stocks gave up gains as asset quality stress daunted near term growth. Further, fears that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than previously thought led to a sharp sell-off in the broader market and, especially, in banking stocks. We firmly believe the correction gives an opportunity to accumulate quality banking stocks for the medium to long term. Select large PSU banks may do well while we expect the consistency in private banks to continue with a stable performance.

The banking sector is the barometer of the economy and reflects its economic health. Banking, being a relatively high beta sector, has delivered higher returns vis-à-vis the broader market in upturns. As seen in the table alongside, every time the market has gone up, the Bankex has delivered higher returns. Entry into banking funds during an improving economy and rising equity markets delivers alpha over other diversified funds. We, therefore, advise investors to start accumulating banking funds on declines in the near term as the long term growth outlook continues to further strengthen.

Exhibit 1: Interim correction to be used as buying opportunity

21000

21500

22000

22500

23000

23500

20-F

eb

21-F

eb

22-F

eb

23-F

eb

24-F

eb

25-F

eb

26-F

eb

27-F

eb

28-F

eb

1-M

ar

2-M

ar

3-M

ar

4-M

ar

5-M

ar

6-M

ar

7-M

ar

8-M

ar

9-M

ar

10-M

ar

11-M

ar

12-M

ar

13-M

ar

Bankex

Source: Bloomberg

Banking funds

Recommended banking funds:

ICICI Prudential Banking Fund

Reliance Banking Fund

UTI Banking Fund

(Please refer the attached fact sheets for fund details)

Banking sector outperforms during economic recovery and market upturn

233%

144%

62%

318%273%

125%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

Jan 2004-Jan2008

March 2009-Nov 2010

Aug 2013-Jan2015

Sensex Bankex

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research


Credit growth at its low…set to gear up as economy recovers!

Industrial credit grew above 20% in 2009, led by non-food credit growth of 18%. However, industry credit has now come down to 6.6% YoY growth as on January, 2014 dragging non-food credit growth lower to 9.7% YoY. Most PSU banks are cautious in lending to large corporate loans and are focusing more on retail loans leading to low credit growth. However, as the new government revives stalled projects, industrial credit may again pick up. GDP growth on the new revised data is expected to be in the range of 7.2-7.5% by FY16E. The revised figures indicate growth will be even stronger. Therefore, we may see credit growth again scaling back as GDP growth picks up. As reforms continue, FY16-17E growth can be even higher. This is expected to lead to a further expansion in bank credit growth.

Asset quality pressure to diminish The global financial crisis started the cycle of deterioration. This was compounded by the growth slowdown and emergence of sector specific problems, especially in power, road and airlines industries. Gross NPAs increased from 2.4% of gross advances in March 2011 to 4.4% in December 2013, before declining somewhat to 4.1% in March 2014. Further, restructured loans are also significant. Restructured standard advances for all scheduled commercial banks increased from 2.5% of gross advances in June 2011 to 5.9% in March 2014. Although gross NPAs to gross advances ratio has increased, especially for public sector banks, the pace of growth in NPAs has moderated recently. We believe asset quality pressure will continue for a few more quarters and then start diminishing as demand revives. Quarterly data indicates that incremental slippages have been coming down. Exhibit 2: Gross NPA on the rise but may eventually come down as growth revives

2.3 2.3 2.4 2.52.9

3.2

4.4

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

%

GNPA (%)

Source: RBI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Historically, the gross NPA ratio was at 12.0% in March

2001. It had declined sharply to 2.4% in June 2008 on the

back of stringent prudential regulations and high growth

in the economy


Softening inflation to bring down yields - boost treasury gains

CPI inflation has softened from a high of 11% (November 2013) to low of 5.4% (February 2015) on the new index as a result of the measures taken by the central government and tight monetary policy stance adopted by the RBI and muted global commodity inflation. Inflationary expectation has also come down led by a decline in global crude oil prices and reduced currency volatility, in turn, creating room for cutting interest rates. Lower inflationary expectation reduces market rates even before the RBI resorts to a repo rate cut as term premiums come down. Banks, especially PSU banks, will benefit in case government security yields drop as they can make treasury gains on their investment book.

Exhibit 3: CPI on RBI’s disinflationary path

8.8

8.0

8.3

8.6

8.3

7.5

8.0

7.7

6.5

5.5

4.4

5.0

5.1

5.4

5.3

5.6

10.08.6

9.2 9.8 9.6

8.09.4 9.4

7.6

5.6

3.2

4.76.1

6.88.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.4 7.4 6.95.9 5.9 5.5 5.3

4.0 3.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-1

4

Nov

-14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15E

Jan

-16E

%

CPI Food Inflation Core CPI

Source: CSO, ICICIdirect.com Research

Further, liquidity infused by the RBI in the form of periodic auctions has also brought short-term rates down. This, in turn, has reduced the wholesale deposit cost for banks, which, in turn, will increase profitability.

Exhibit 4: Softening inflation to bring down G-sec yields

7.5

7.9

8.3

8.7

9.1

9.5

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep-

14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

Yiel

d (%

)


Exhibit 5: Certificate of deposit rates lower

8.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.49.69.8

10.0

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct-1

4

Nov

-14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

%

3M CD 6M CD 12M CD



Triggers for PSU banks…

• Fall of 10-year G-Sec yields by ~60 bps has raised expectations of improved profits in H2FY15 for PSU banks wherein MTM gains will be seen largely in reversal of provisions & trading profits if realised (4-16% on FY15E PAT - benefit for 40 bps yield decline)

• Plans to bring down the government stake in PSU banks to 52% are more prominent now, whereby, in case of continuous dilution over time, | 87000 crore of capital can be raised. Issues relating to capital adequacy may be moderated

• Restructuring windows issued by the RBI for existing and new infra loans will ease pressure on future NPA accretions

• Valuations still offer upside from >one year time horizon

Triggers for private bank…

• Valuations set to stay rich and continue at P/ABV multiples, consistency in price appreciation for select private banks

• Improving growth and incremental profits to be more beneficial in BV accretion vs. PSU banks as valuation multiples are high

• Capital adequacy at comfortable position for private banks

• Being strong in retail and housing loans, infrastructure bond (providing CRR, SLR, PSL relief) issuances have been rising and can improve NIM

Banking funds: Better placed to capitalise on economic revival

We, therefore, believe that as the economy revives much of the impediments faced by the banking sector - slower credit pick-up, deteriorating asset quality and a fall in profitability may all abate. In the past, the banking sector has outperformed the BSE Sensex in a growing market. We believe the same may happen over the next two or three years. Investors can, therefore, consider allocation of some part of their overall equity portfolio to banking sector funds.


Technical outlook…

Bank Nifty – Leader of the pack; heading towards 22000...

Exhibit 6: Bank Nifty generic futures– Weekly Bar Chart


• The Bank Nifty extended gains for a fourth consecutive month and conquered the psychological level of 20000 in January 2015. Market sentiments were boosted by the surprise repo rate cut by the RBI ahead of its monetary policy and the monetary stimulus announcement by the European Central Bank

• We expect the Bank Nifty to continue its

leadership role and head towards 22000 in the coming months. After the recent sharp run up, a temporary breather may not be ruled out. However, we believe any intermediate cool-offs towards the 20000 region will offer a favourable reward/risk setup, which should be used as a buying opportunity to ride the expected up move towards 22000

• The entire price up move since October 2014 till

date has occurred in a well defined rising channel (marked in blue), which highlights sustained buying support at elevated levels. The secondary corrections during December 2014 and January 2015 attracted fresh buying support precisely at the lower band of this channel. The value of the channel’s lower band for the coming month is placed around 19500. The 38.2% retracement of the December – January rally placed at 19500 makes this a key short-term base for the index

• Since August 2013, each major rally on the

index has measured around 3500 points. The current up move from December 2014 low of 17600 has almost equalled the magnitude of preceding rallies. Based on the current price and momentum set-up we expect the current rally to extend towards 123.6% magnitude of the preceding 3500 point rally, which projects upsides toward 22000. The upper band of the blue rising channel over the coming month is also placed around 22000 making this a likely target for the current up move

• Among oscillators, the weekly RSI has

maintained a rising trajectory by taking support at its own rising trend line in place since September 2013 highlighting a strong uptrend. Any intermediate cool-off towards the trend line currently poised near 65 reading is bound to attract fresh buying momentum

Bank Nifty is expected to extend the current rally and head towards the upper band of the blue rising channel placed at 22000 levels.

Weekly RSI continues to trend higher while respecting its rising trendline in place since September 2013 highlighting a strong uptrend

13 week EMA

Upper band of channel and 123.6% extension @ 22000

Rising channel’s lower band and 38.2% @ 19500

NAV as on February 27, 2015 (|) 38.0Inception DateFund Manager Vinay SharmaMinimum Investment (|) Lumpsum 5000

SIP 1000Expense Ratio (%) 2.13Exit Load 1% on or before 1Y, NIL after 1YBenchmark S&P BSE BANKEXLast declared Quarterly AAUM(| cr) 821

2014 2013 2012 2011 201037.5 22.2 22.8 13.2 19.469.0 -2.6 72.2 -31.6 32.8 ICICI Prudential Banking65.0 -9.4 56.7 -31.6 33.4 Benchmark676 261 229 128 152 S&P BSE Sensex

%18.114.75.95.45.35.04.84.84.64.6

%51.712.0 %11.4 4.89.55.44.61.5

%

18.58 23.00.80 73.10.21 24.40.91 --7.29 3.4

96.00.04.0

29.89 8.98 25.70

Whats In

Key Information Performance vs. Benchmark

August 22, 2008

Calendar Year-wise Performance Last Three Years Performance

Fund Name

ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Fund

Fund ObjectiveTo generate long-term capital appreciation to unitholders from a portfolio that is invested predominantlyin equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in banking and financial services. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized

31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-11NAV as on Dec 31 ( 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12Return (%) 68.96 -2.63 72.21

Net Assets (| Cr)

Top 10 Holdings Asset Type SIP Performance (Value if invested | 5000 per month (in'000))

Benchmark (%) 65.04 -9.36 56.72

Axis Bank Ltd.

Whats out

Portfolio AttributesStandard Deviation (%) Total StocksBeta Top 10 Holdings (%)

Fund P/E RatioR Squared Benchmark P/E RatioAlpha (%) Fund P/BV Ratio

Asset AllocationLarge EquityMid Debt

Cash

Source: ACEMF

Data as on February 27,2015 ;Portfolio details as on Jan-2015

ICICIdirect.com Mutual Fund Research

HDFC Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesICICI Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesThe Federal Bank Ltd. Domestic Equities

Small

Market Capitalisation (%)

Sharpe ratio

Housing Development Finance Corpor Domestic Equities

Risk Parameters

Top 10 Sectors Asset Type

Finance - NBFC Domestic EquitiesFinance - Housing

Bajaj Finserv Ltd. Domestic EquitiesCBLO Cash & Cash Equivalents

Bank - Public Domestic Equities

State Bank Of India Domestic EquitiesAxis Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesMax India Ltd. Domestic EquitiesRepco Home Finance Ltd. Domestic Equities

Bank - Private Domestic Equities

Domestic EquitiesFinance - Investment Domestic EquitiesDiversified Domestic EquitiesFinance Term Lending Domestic Equities

Page1

22.2

86.8

31.7

21.6

21.5

78.4

23.5

17.3

0

50

100

6 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Ret

urn%

Fund Benchmark

60

180 30

0

73

305

582

72

282

513

0

200

400

600

800

1Yr 3Yrs 5Yrs 10Yrs

Total Investment Fund Value Benchmark Value

Rectangle

31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-1131-Dec-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12

68.96 -2.63 72.2165.04 -9.36 56.7232.46 9.27 40.8118.22 12.18 48.53

*as on December 31, 2014

Fund name

BSE Sensex 19095

Fund 68960Benchmark 32243

Value of investement of | 10000 since inceptionParticulars |

Dividend (%)Fund Name Mar-02-2015 30

Source: ACEMF


Product Label


CNX FMCG

ICICI Pru Banking & Fin Serv Fund-RegS&P BSE BANKEX

Sep-27-2010 5ICICI Pru FMCG Fund-Reg(G)

Feb-24-2014 10Feb-25-2013 20

Performance of all the schemes managed by the fund manager Dividend HistoryDate

This product is suitable for investors seeking*:• Long term wealth creation solution• An equity fund that predominantly invests in equity and equity related

securities of companies engaged in banking and financial services

• High risk

*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

(Blue) Investors understand that their principal will be at low risk

(Yellow) Investors understand that their principal will be at meduim risk

(Brown) Investors understand that their principal will be at high risk

NAV as on February 27, 2015 (|) 185.4Inception DateFund Manager Sanjay ParekhMinimum Investment (|) Lumpsum 5000

SIP 500Expense Ratio (%) 2.13Exit Load 1% on or before 1Y, Nil after 1YBenchmark CNX BankLast declared Quarterly AAUM(| cr) 2360

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010177.5 107.7 120.1 74.8 110.064.9 -10.4 60.5 -32.0 46.1 Reliance Banking Fund64.6 -8.7 56.5 -32.4 30.6 Benchmark2166 1492 1966 1574 1639 BSE Sensex

%24.113.98.77.16.76.63.43.03.02.9

%62.311.6 %8.17.13.02.91.4

%

19.65 28.00.88 79.50.20 23.10.93 19.10.18 3.7

96.30.03.7

25.70

Diversified Domestic EquitiesRatings Domestic Equities

Domestic EquitiesFinance - NBFC Domestic EquitiesFinance - Housing Domestic EquitiesFinance Term Lending Domestic Equities

CBLO Cash & Cash EquivalentsIDFC Ltd. Domestic EquitiesMax India Ltd. Domestic Equities

Domestic EquitiesBank - Public

Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. Domestic EquitiesYes Bank Ltd. Domestic Equities

HDFC Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesICICI Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesAxis Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesState Bank Of India Domestic Equities

The Federal Bank Ltd. Domestic Equities


Small Cash

Source: ACEMF


Market Capitalisation (%) Asset AllocationLarge Equity

Standard Deviation (%) Total Stocks

Mid Debt

Sharpe ratio Fund P/E RatioR Squared Benchmark P/E RatioAlpha (%) Fund P/BV Ratio

Beta Top 10 Holdings (%)

Whats out

Risk Parameters Portfolio Attributes


Whats InBank - Private

Benchmark (%) 64.57 -8.73 56.54Net Assets (| Cr)

Top 10 Holdings Asset Type SIP Performance (Value if invested | 5000 per month (in'000))

29.89 8.98

31-Dec-12Return (%) 64.88 -10.37 60.52


Fund Name31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-11

NAV as on Dec 31 ( 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-13

Reliance Banking Fund

Fund Objective

The primary investment objective of the Scheme is to seek to generate continuous returns by actively investing in equity and equity related securities of companies in the Banking Sector and companies engaged in allied activities related to Banking Sector.


May 26, 2003

22.8

85.5

25.7

20.2

21.4

77.8

23.6

16.9

0

50

100


Ret

urn%

Fund Benchmark

60 180

300 60

0

73

294 53

4

1922

71.9 28

2 512

1560

0500

1000150020002500

1Yr 3Yrs 5Yrs 10Yrs



64.88 -10.37 60.5264.57 -8.73 56.5443.20 3.52 33.8625.34 6.05 21.2723.37 3.51 16.7716.83 4.41 12.1013.36 -- --16.83 -- --

*as on December 31, 2014Fund name

Feb-28-2011 25Aug-31-2009 20

Mar-16-2012 10

Fund Name Mar-02-2015 50Feb-10-2014 30Jan-21-2013 40

Crisil MIP Blended Index

Reliance Banking Fund(G)CNX BankReliance Reg Savings Fund-Balanced PCrisil Balanced Fund IndexReliance MIP(G)Crisil MIP Blended Index


Reliance Dual Adv FTF-IV-E(G)

88821


Source: ACEMF

Performance of all the schemes managed by the fund manager Dividend HistoryDate Dividend (%)

116735BSE Sensex

Product label

Value of investement of | 10000 since inceptionParticulars |Fund 177520Benchmark

This product is suitable for investors seeking*:• Long term wealth creation solution• An equity fund that predominantly invests in equity and equity related

securities of companies engaged in banking and financial services

• High risk





NAV as on February 27, 2015 (|) 68.8Inception DateFund Manager Lalit NambiarMinimum Investment (|) Lumpsum 5000

SIP 500Expense Ratio (%) 2.78Exit Load 1% on or before 548D, Nil after 548DBenchmark CNX BankLast declared Quarterly AAUM(| cr) 431

2014 2013 2012 2011 201069.0 42.1 48.6 30.7 45.564.0 -13.5 58.7 -32.6 36.5 UTI Banking Sector Fun64.6 -8.7 56.5 -32.4 30.6 Benchmark418 324 398 318 250 S&P BSE Sensex

%25.017.712.98.14.94.03.53.32.42.2

%71.214.2 %6.74.61.0

%0.5

0.00 23.00.00 83.90.00 21.60.00 19.1-3.31 3.6

97.70.02.3


29.89 8.98 25.70

July 30, 2005


Fund Name

UTI Banking Sector Fund

Fund Objective

To achieve capital appreciation through investments in stocks of companies/institutions engaged in the banking and financial services activities.

31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-11NAV as on Dec 31 ( 31-Dec-14

SIP Performance (Value if invested | 5000 per month (in'000))

31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12Return (%) 64.03 -13.51 58.69

64.57 -8.73 56.54Net Assets (| Cr)

Finance - NBFC Domestic EquitiesFinance - Housing

IndusInd Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesThe Federal Bank Ltd. Domestic Equities

Bank Of Baroda Domestic Equities

Benchmark (%)

Top 10 Holdings Asset Type

Whats In

HDFC Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesICICI Bank Ltd. Domestic EquitiesAxis Bank Ltd. Domestic Equities

Whats outKotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.

Portfolio AttributesStandard Deviation (%) Total Stocks

Risk Parameters

Beta Top 10 Holdings (%)Fund P/E Ratio

R Squared Benchmark P/E RatioSharpe ratio

Alpha (%) Fund P/BV Ratio

Asset AllocationLarge Equity

Market Capitalisation (%)

Mid DebtCash

Source: ACEMF

Small



Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Service Domestic Equities

Bank - Public Domestic Equities

Punjab National Bank Domestic EquitiesState Bank Of India Domestic Equities


Net Current Asset Cash & Cash Equivalents

Bank - Private Domestic Equities

Domestic EquitiesFinance - Investment Domestic Equities

19.8

73.7

20.5

15.8

21.4

77.5

23.6

16.9

0

50

100


Ret

urn%

Fund Benchmark

60

180 30

0

70.7

270

484

71.9

282

512

0100200300400500600

1Yr 3Yrs 5Yrs 10Yrs



64.03 -13.50 58.7164.57 -8.73 56.5443.91 5.13 29.0532.28 5.87 29.9643.74 23.27 24.7743.42 26.51 31.8843.49 1.24 30.7432.28 5.87 29.9640.73 7.16 26.8932.28 5.87 29.9632.59 5.83 33.1437.82 3.61 31.84 *as on December 31, 201422.68 -3.41 24.91-6.13 -6.32 12.490.93 -14.12 10.94-6.13 -6.32 12.49

Benchmark 42953BSE Sensex 36015

Value of investement of | 10000 since inceptionParticulars |Fund 69010

Performance of all the schemes managed by the fund manager Dividend HistoryDate Dividend (%)Fund Name

Source: ACEMF

UTI Wealth Builder Fund-II(G)Gold-IndiaUTI Gold ETFGold-India


UTI India LifeStyle Fund(G)CNX 500 Index


Fund Objective

UTI Banking Sector Fund(D)CNX BankUTI LT Adv Fund-II(G)S&P BSE 100UTI Pharma & Healthcare Fund(D)CNX PharmaUTI LT Adv Fund-I(G)S&P BSE 100UTI ETSP(D)S&P BSE 100

Sep-07-2009 22

May-10-2011 25Feb-04-2011 25Jun-25-2010 10

May-24-2007 35Sep-23-2005 25

This product is suitable for investors seeking*:• Long term capital growth• Investment primarily in equity instuments of companies engaged in banking

and financial services activities

• High risk






Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093

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