fullerpresentationnvareconomicsummit 100929125840-phpapp02
TRANSCRIPT
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NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit
September 16, 2010
The Outlook for theWashington Area Economy
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDirector, Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University
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Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
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15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 09 – July 10
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Philadelphia
Houston
Boston
Miam
i
Atlanta
Detroit
SF-Oakland
Minneapolis
Phoenix
Seattle
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100(000s)
Washington + 41,800
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
2002
2004
2006
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
2002
2004
2006
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
-4
-5
-8
-13
-11
2
-37
-3
-23
-4
13
24
-9(000s) Total - 79,300
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
1
-3
-5
-3
3
-5
12
12
-7
4
20
14(000s) Total 41,200
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010
Northern Virginia
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
-1
-2
-4
-1
3
-7
10
7
-1
7
7
4(000s) Total 22,700
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Unemployment Rate
23456789
1011
%
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
U.S.
Washington
9.7
6.3
5.2
Northern Virginia
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15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
July 2010
Washington
Minneapolis
Boston
Dallas
Seattle
Houston
New York
Phoenix
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Chicago
SF-Oakland
Miam
i
Los Angeles
Detroit
02468
10121416%
US 9.7
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
6.3
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Housing Market Trends
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1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA
Through August 2010
12-Month Moving Average
Northern Virginia
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Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006 july
dec
May oc
tM
arA
ug20
10 Jun
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Aug = - 0.3%
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Total Active Listings Per SaleAugust Each Year
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
0
5
10
15
20
25
LDN
PG
FFXARL
DCMONT
PW
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
AprOct
AprOct
AprOct
Apr
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
6
111414
2022
2 2 2 2 1 1
0
64
0
0 -2
0
-9
-5
-12-11-13-13
-16-17
-23
-18
-23-25
-24-26
-20-18
-14
-10-9-7
0
-4
3
96 6
46
5 47
5
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009 2010
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Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
AprO
ctApr
Oct
AprO
ctApr
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5
101414
2223
1 1
-1-1-3-1-2
1 2 1
-3-5-4
-15-12
-18-17-19-20-22
-25
-32-28-29-30
-28-28
-22-19
-12
-8
-2-1
9
5
11
1519
161716
12119 9
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009 2010
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20
03
20
05
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
New Housing Contract Kick-Out RateWashington Metro, All Housing Types
% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Hanley Wood
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Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011
Metro Area
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
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Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011
Northern Virginia
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
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Economic Forecast
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Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
2015
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
%
DCSMMSANV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
D.C. 5.3 10.1 -0.7 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.3
Sub. MD 4.8 -1.4 -26.7 9.3 9.7 11.1 13.3 14.7
No. VA 13.2 4.4 -24.5 16.7 20.4 26.5 28.3 29.9
REGION 23.3 12.9 -51.9 32.2 37.3 44.3 48.8 51.9
Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
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2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
Washington
U.S.
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Policy-cra.gmu.edu