fuel cell vs battery electric vehicles lessons from china · plug-in evs are growing fast in china....
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Strategy | Energy | Sustainability
Fuel cell vs battery electric vehicles –Lessons from China
Adam Chase
Future Powertrain Conference
28th February 2018
Plug-in EVs are growing fast in China. Is it ‘game over’ for fuel cell EVs?
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Source: IEA “Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017”
vs
~500 Fuel cell vehicles
Stock of plug-in electric vehicles in China in 2016
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Outline
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• Chinese policy and programmes
• Buses
• Cars
• Implications for rest of the world
‘Made in China 2025 Strategy’ is context for New Energy Vehicles
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NEV goals: Industrial development, energy security, air quality, GHG emissions
1. Information technology
2. Numerical control tools and robotics
3. Aerospace equipment
4. Ocean engineering equipmt & ships
5. Railway equipment
6. Energy saving & new energy vehicles
7. Power equipment
8. New materials
9. Medicine and medical devices
10. Agricultural machinery
NEV policy is strongly encouraging battery EV sales
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Evolution of global BEV stock 2010-2016
Source: CEM-EVI “Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017”
Predicted Influence of NEV mandate on car sales
Source: ICCT 2018
NEV Policy Features 2010 – 2016
• Direct support to Chinese OEMs
• EV purchase grants up to $15k/vehicle
• Support to charging infrastructure
• EV preferential registration in main cities
NEV Policy Evolution 2017 – 2020
• Phasing out of BEV purchase grants
• Support to charging infrastructure
• Aggressive NEV mandate on OEMs
Chinese FCEVs are several years behind BEVs, with emphasis on buses, but…
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…China has (longer term) ambitions for FCEVs
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China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry innovation strategic alliance established in Beijing on 11th Feb 2018
FCEV bus uptake is growing, from a low base
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Source: Ballard 2018
• 350,000 battery electric v 23 fuel cell buses
• Large orders placed for FCEV buses
• Partnerships formed with western FC suppliers
• Cost of FC buses is decreasing and Chinese volumes and production can drive this down further
Battery cars are mostly small/medium – opportunity for FCEVs in SUV and luxury segments?
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BAIC EC-Series ($22k; 200km range)
JAC iEV6S/E ($26k; 250km range)
Source: CleanTechnica and EV Obsession
Zhidou D2 EV ($19k; 120km range)
#1
#2
#4
Plug-in vehicle sales November 2017
The evolution of NEV policy design for passenger cars is key to the development of the FCEV market
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2010
2013
20152016
2017
2018
NEV programChina introduced its NEV program to support EVs.
SubsidyIntroduction of subsidies
to support NEVs.
Made in China 2025To support high technology
industrial sector including EVs.
Sales of new ICEChina is drawing up plans to phase out the sale of
new ICEV
A new Subsidy SchemeBEV subsidies to reduce by 20% in 2018. Introduction
of subsidies for FCEVs.
Credit/Quota SystemImplementing a minimum NEV sale share for each carmaker: 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2020.
www.crugroup.com
Implications for the rest of the world
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• NEV policy aggressively pushing electrification. Heavy duty vehicles and larger passenger cars well-suited for fuel cells but Chinese technology lagging. Opportunity for partnerships and exports
• Primary goal is economic development. Long term view that there will be an export market for FCEVs. The size of the Chinese market can drive huge scale economies and learning. Be prepared to defend against low cost imports
• Battery technology moving fast, but recharging, materials supply, cost reduction etc uncertain. FCEV serves as a ‘hedge’. Observe China’s FCEV appetite as a leading indicator of these factors
HFC Industry Alliance
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