ftas in norteast asia and tpp

8/10/2019 FTAs in Norteast Asia and TPP

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Fiorella EspinozaZavaleta.

Carlos Morales Larrea.

2014.05.20 (Tue.)

FTAs in Norteast Asiaan! T""


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C#NTENT

2.1 $e%nition2.2. "urposes an! Ai&s

2.'. 2011 T"" Lea!ers tate&ent2.4. Te Evolution o te T""2.5. Me&*ers an! "otentialMe&*ers2.+ ,..-T"" TA$E/LATEALTEN$2.. Te T"" An! Te 3T#

. TAN 7 "ACFC "ATNE8" (T"

1.1. Norteast Asia (NEA).1.2.Cara6teristi6s in Norteast Asiaeion.1.'.Fun6tional E6ono&i6 nterationin Norteast Asia1.4.nstitutional E6ono&i6

nteration in Norteast Asia1.5.Norteast Asia9 isin Center ote :lo*al E6ono&;.

.- FEE TA$E A:EEMENT(FTA)


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.- Free Tra!eAree&ents(FTAs)

n Norteast Asia


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1.1.- Norteast Asia(NEA)

Norteast Asia (NEA)96overin Cina9Monolia9#


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1.2.-Cara6teristi6s inNorteast Asia eion

:eorapi6al pro>i⁢? transport an! tra!ea6ilitation

#ne o te larest reional e6ono&; @it asteste6ono&i6 ro@t in te @orl!

Top ranBin orein e>6ane reserves in te @orl!

8il; !iversi%e! e6ono&; 6o&ple&ente! *;resour6es

ntra-reional tra!e an! invest&ent ro@ rapi!l; @itinter!epen!en6;

n6reasin openin-up an! reor&s in transitione6ono&ies

#noin FTA neotiations a&on Cina - =apan -

#


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. .- un6t onaE6ono&i6 nteration in

Norteast AsiaTra!e $epen!en6; o Ea6 Countr; on Norteast

Asian E6ono&ies


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. .- nst tut onaE6ono&i6 nteration in

Norteast Asia

- =apan?inapore9 Me>i6o9 runei9n!onesia9Mala;sia9 te "ilippines9 Tailan!9 ietna&9 AEAN9Cile9 @itzerlan!9 out


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. .- 9isin Center o te

:lo*al E6ono&;Norteast Asia ? 22 o @orl! population9 1+ olo*al :$"

n ten ;ears ti&e9 te @orl!s larest e6ono&iesoutsi!e

te : @ill in6lu!e Me>i6o an!


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1.5.1.- Cina 7 Te3orl!s Fa6tor;

Attra6ts -

H o

@orl!@i!e

F$

450 o te @orl!s top 500 operatea6toriesAir*us 7 Asse&*l; in inaiFor! 7 Asse&*l; line to ZonIin

Cinas sare o @orl! pro!u6tion"Cs ? 'H9 Air-6on!itioners ? 50 Motor6;6les ? 4'9 Mo*ile pones ? 40

3orl!s J1e>porter Koreine>6anereserve

E>ports e>6ee! 1 trillionTra!e surplus? (05) 102*n (0+)

1*n

Forein E>6ane eserves ? 1.'

trillion


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Cina puse! its FTA @it oter 6ountries ater it *e6a&e

a &e&*er o 3T# in 2000.

FTA"oli6;?

Cinese overn&ent realize! FTA is a useulinstru&ent or *ot e6ono&i6 *ene%ts an!international politi6s.

t also aree! to pursue FTA a&on C#&e&*ers *; 2020.


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3at !rives Cinas FTA strate;

First9 Cina plans to pla; a lea!in rolein *uil!in East Asian E6ono&i6nteration *o!;.e6on!9 pro&otion o NorteastAsian FTA @ill *ene%t te!evelop&ent o Norteast Asianreion o Cina. Tir!9 *; pro&otin FTA @it ussia9

Australia9 Mi!!le East9 Mi!!le Asia9Ari6a9 an! out A&eri6a9 Cinaplans to se6ure sta*le suppl; oresour6e an! ener;. Fourt9 Cina @ants to e>pan! its&arBet aroun! te @orl! *; or&inFTAs.


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1.5.2.- =apan 7eGuvenatin E6ono&;

E6ono&i6re6over;

ater lon ter&

re6ession

E>port ro@t Corporate 6apital

e>pen!iture9

e&plo;&ent ro@t En6ourae

6onsu&ptionirtuous 6ir6le or i&provin *usiness

peror&an6e

Eli&inate! te zero interest rate poli6;9

in6rease! overnit 6all rate to 0.5 (=an

200)=apanese

6o&panies lea!te @orl!&arBet

To;ota lea!s te auto in!ustr;9 one ote

&ost i&portant &anua6turin

in!ustries9

overtaBin :M as top auto&aBer (200+)


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FTA "oli6;?

=apan also !i!nt pa; &u6 attention to te

@orl!@i!e tren! o FTAs *eore Asian 6risis.

=apanese overn&ent oO6ials tooB&ultilateral li*eralization pro6ess &oreseriousl; an! !isrear!e! te sitin tren!

to reionalis&. $iO6ulties o 3T# neotiations an! risin

nu&*er o FTAs aroun! te @orl! le! =apanto retinB its tra!e poli6; in avor o FTA.


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Cara6teristi6s o ="s FTA poli6;?

First9 =apan 6ose AEAN nations aspriorit; in pi6Bin FTA 6ounterparts at

te earl; stae o FTA neotiations.

e6on!9 level o &arBet openin in&anua6turin se6tor is i9 @ile tat inari6ulture an! %ser; are relativel; lo@.

Tir!9 =apan utilizes FTA poli6; as a &ean onot onl; tra!e poli6; *ut also reional!iplo&ati6 poli6;. n parti6ular9 =apaninten!s to taBe a lea!in position in EastAsian E6ono&i6 6o&&unit;9 6o&petin @it


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1.5.'.-


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1.5.'.-


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. . .- orea n t e3orl! (its in

n!ustrial tru6ture)Ari6ulture Manua6turin ervi6es

P1H0Q P1HH0QP2005Q

Ari6ultureKFisinKForestr;

its in te t;pe o e>portite&s

4!6" 269"

209" 49+" 27!"

'9"

+6!"

%s9 pl;@oo!9apparel9 @ier;

%s9 pl;@oo!9apparel9 @ier;

apparel9 steel9soes9 sipsapparel9 steel9soes9 sips

apparel9se&i6on!u6tors9soes9 A!evi6es

apparel9se&i6on!u6tors9soes9 A

!evi6es

se&i6on!u6tors96ars9 @ireless

6o&&uni6ation!evi6es9 sips

se&i6on!u6tors96ars9 @ireless6o&&uni6ation!evi6es9 sips

1960/70 19'0 1990 2006

!!"2'4"

ervi6es

Manua6turin


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1.5.'.-


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1.5.4.- Co&parison oFTA "oli6ies o C=


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1.5.4.- Co&parison oFTA "oli6ies o C=


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1.5..- F#ER eserve


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1.5.5.- Te "artners


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1.5.+.- Tra!e olu&e

1 5 " t "


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1.5..- " to "ntera6tion


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Te neotiations 6oul! *e lon an! 6ontentious.

$espite te potentiall; &aGor i&pa6t o a Cina-=apan-out ities.

1.5.H.- #*sta6les


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1.5.H.- #*sta6les

,n!erl;in eopoliti6al tensions &a; 6o&pli6ate&atters.

Entren6e! prote6tionist interests in ea6 6ountr;6an present o*sta6les.o Cina is unliBel; to &aBe 6on6essions tat @oul!

treaten te stateSs a*ilit; to 6ontrol stratei6

in!ustries.o Ari6ultural pro!u6ers in =apan an! out


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1.5.10.- &portan6e

A Cina-=apan-out porters9an! teir 6o&*ine! @eit rival tat o teEuropean ,nion an! te Nort A&eri6an FTA.

Tra!e *et@een te tree 6ountries9 as&easure! *; total e>ports9 @as @ort,54*n in 20119 up ro& ,1+'*n in 2001.


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Te total value o tis &easure o trilateral tra!eas e>pan!e! *; an annual averae o 1 overte past !e6a!e (MF9 2011).

Te tree 6ountries a66ounte! or 1.5 o @orl!e>ports in 2010

A66or!in to esti&ates a ree tra!e treat; 6oul! litCinaSs :$" *; up to 2.H per6ent9 =apanSs *; 0.5

per6ent9 an! out


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1.5.11.- E>pe6tationsan! eservations


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. Trans-"a6i%6 "artnersip(T"")

ntelle6tual "ropert; its "rote6tion in a 21st Centur;Tra!e Aree&ent


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Te Trans-"a6i%6 "artnersip (T"")is a potential ree tra!e aree&ent(FTA) *ein neotiate! a&on 12 6ountries? Te ,nite! tates9

Australia9 runei9 Cana!a9 Cile9 =apan9 Mala;sia9 Me>i6o9 Ne@Zealan!9 "eru9 inapore9 an! ietna& an! peraps &ore 6ountries9altou te T"" 6overs a @i!e rane o issues9 tis site o6uses onte T""Ss intelle6tual propert; (") 6apter. Te *roa! outline o anaree&ent @as announ6e! on te si!elines o te Asia-"a6i%6E6ono&i6 Cooperation (A"EC) &inisterial in Nove&*er 20119 in8onolulu9 8.

2.1 3at is te Trans-"a6i%6 "artnersip

Aree&ent (T"") $e%nition?


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2.2. "urposes an!Ai&s

To eli&inate taris an! non-tari *arriers to tra!e in oo!s9servi6es9 an! ari6ulture a&on te parties9 *; H0 per6ent o alltaris *et@een &e&*er 6ountries *; 1 =anuar; 200+9 an!re!u6tion o all tra!e taris to zero *; te ;ear 2015.

3it 2H 6apters un!er neotiation9 te T"" partners envision tearee&ent to *e U6o&preensive an! i-stan!ar!9V in tat te;

seeB?

Tr; to serve as a te&plate or a uture tra!e pa6t a&on A"EC&e&*ers an! potentiall; oter 6ountries.

To esta*lis rules on a @i!e rane o issues in6lu!in orein!ire6t invest&ent an! oter e6ono&i6 a6tivities.

To pro&ote tra!e an! invest&ent a&on te T"" partner6ountries.

To pro&ote innovation9 e6ono&i6 ro@t an! !evelop&ent9 an!support te 6reation an! retention o Go*s.

To 6reate a U21st-6entur; aree&entV tat a!!resses ne@ an!

6ross6uttin issues presente! *; an in6reasinl; lo*alize!e6ono&;.


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2.'. 2011 T"" Lea!erstate&ent

At te 2011 A"EC Lea!ers &eetin in 8onolulu9 te lea!ers o te(ten) nine T"" 6ountries aree! to te *roa! outlines o anaree&ent. n teir state&ent9 te; 6ateorize! te T"" as Ua6o&preensive9 ne>t-eneration reional aree&ent tatli*eralizes tra!e an! invest&ent an! a!!resses ne@ an!tra!itional tra!e issues an! 21st-6entur; 6allenesW. T"" tra!e&inisters also ilite! te ollo@in %ve Be; areas o teso6alle! istori6 an! stan!ar!-settin aree&ent?1) Co&preensive

MarBet

2) eional Aree&ent

') Cross-6uttin Tra!e

ssues

4) Ne@ Tra!e Callenes

5) Livin Aree&ent

our6e? T"" Lea!ers tate&ent9 8onolulu9 8a@aii9 Nove&*er


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2.'. 2011 T"" Lea!erstate&ent

Full; reional aree&ent tat a6ilitatestra!e an! te !evelop&ent o pro!u6tion

an! suppl; 6ains a&on T"" &e&*ers.8olisti69 aree&ent-@i!e approa6 tospe6i%6 areas? reulator; 6oeren6e96o&petitiveness an! *usiness a6ilitation9s&all- an! &e!iu&-size! enterprises9 an!!evelop&ent.

A!!resses e&erin tra!e issues su6as tose 6ause! *; ne@ te6nolo;(e..9 6lou!-6o&putin).

Aree&ent @ill Uevolve in response to!evelop&ents in tra!e9 te6nolo; oroter e&erin issuesV an! e>pan! Utoin6lu!e oter e6ono&ies ro& a6ross te

Asia-"a6i%6 reion.V

1) Co&preensiveMarBet

2) eionalAree&ent

') Cross-6uttinTra!e ssues

4) Ne@ Tra!eCallenes

5) Livin Aree&ent

e&oval o *ot tari an! non-tari*arriers is U6o&preensive an! a&*itiousin all areas.V

our6e? T"" Lea!ers tate&ent9 8onolulu9 8a@aii9 Nove&*er


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Te Trans-"a6i%6 tratei6 E6ono&i6 "artnersip (T"E")9 as it@as oriinall; Bno@n9 @as 6on6eive! in 200' *;? inapore9 Ne@

Zealan!9an! Cileas a pat to tra!e li*eralization in te Asia-"a6i%6 reion. runeiGoine! neotiations in 20059 an! te Trans-"a6i%6 tratei6 E6ono&i6 "artnersip ("-4) aree&ent @as6on6lu!e! in 200+.

2.4. Te Evolution o te T""

N:A"#E

NE3ZEALAN$ ,NE

C8LE


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n Fe*ruar; 2009 te ,nite! tates Goine! te neotiations to

6on6lu!e te still outstan!in invest&ent an! %nan6ial servi6esprovisions. "resi!ent us noti%e! Conress o is intention toneotiate @it te e>istin "-4 &e&*ers on epte&*er 229 200.

Te ne@ #*a&a A!&inistration !e6i!e! to 6ontinue @it te T""neotiations. #n Nove&*er 149 200H9 "resi!ent #*a&a 6o&&itte! te,nite! tates to enae @it te T"" 6ountries .

"resi!ent #*a&a or&all; noti%e! Conress o is A!&inistrationsintention to enter into neotiations @it te T"" 6ountries on$e6e&*er 149 200H.

N:A"#E

,..A.

C8LE

,NENE3

ZEALAN$



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n Nove&*er 2009 Australia9 ietna&9 an!"eruannoun6e!tat te; @oul! Goin te "4 tra!e *lo6.

N:A"#E

NE3ZEALAN$

C8LE

,..A.

MALAYA

"E,

A,TALA

n #6to*er 20109 T"" parti6ipants aree! to *; 6onsensus tote in6lusion o Mala;siaas a neotiatin partner.



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#n Mar6 159 201'9 "ri&e Minister inzo A*e announ6e! =apans!e%nitive interest an! te *ilateral 6onsultations intensi%e!.9 an! =apan*ean to ull; parti6ipate in te %nal !a;s o te =ul; 201' Mala;sia roun!.

Te neotiatin partners announ6e! a ra&e@orB or te aree&ent atte si!elines o teAsia- "a6i%6 E6ono&i6 Cooperation (A"EC) Ministerialin 8onolulu9 89 Nove&*er -1'9 2011.

Te T"" 6ountries aree! *; 6onsensus to te in6lusion o Me>i6o an!Cana!a an! te; *ean parti6ipatin as neotiatin partners in te$e6e&*er 2012 roun! in Au6Blan!9 Ne@ Zealan!.

N:A"#E

C8LE

NE3 ZEALAN$ ,NE ,..

A.

ETNAM

"E,

A,TALA

MALAYA

MERC#

CANA$A

=A"AN


Nineteen roun!s o neotiations ave taBen pla6e to!ate.

2 5 Me&*ers an! "otential


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2.5. Me&*ers an! "otentialMe&*ers

out presse! interestin Goinin in Nove&*er 20109an!@as oO6iall; invite! to Goin te

T"" neotiatin roun!s *; te,nite! tates ater tesu66essul 6on6lusion o its*ilateral tra!e aree&ent @itout presse! interest in T""

&e&*ersip in6lu!e? Tai@an Te

"ilippines Laos Colo&*ia

UCina also as so&e interest

in eventuall; Goinin te T""V

n!onesia Ca&*o!ia anla!es n!ia


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.

Fiure 1.Trans-"a6i%6 "artnersip Countries (2012)

our6es? Anal;sis *; C. "opulation an! :$" !ata ro& MF9 3orl! E6ono&i6

#utlooB9 April 201'. Tra!e !ata ro& te ,.. nternational Tra!e Co&&ission(TC). Total tra!e in6lu!es *ot i&ports an! e>ports9 *ut !oes not in6lu!e


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our6es? 3T# FTA !ata*ase an! @e*sites o T"" 6ountries tra!e &inistries.

Fiure 2.Te T"" an! #ter Asia-"a6i%6 Tra!e Aree&ents


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Fiure 2.Te T"" an! #ter Asia-"a6i%6 Tra!e Aree&ents

our6es? 3T# FTA !ata*ase an! @e*sites o T"" 6ountries tra!e &inistries.


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Fiure '.,..-3orl!9 A"EC9 an! T"" :oo!s

Tra!e

(in *illions o ,.. !ollars)

our6e? Anal;sis *; C. $ata ro& te nternational Tra!eCo&&ission.

Fiure 4


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Fiure 4.Larest ,.. FTAs/:oo!s

(in *illions o ,.. !ollars9 2012)

our6e? Anal;sis *; C. $ata ro& TC.

Fiure 5


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Fiure 5.Larest ,.. FTAs/ervi6es

(in *illions o ,.. !ollars9

2012)

our6e? Anal;sis *; C. $ata ro& EA.


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Te ,.. tra!e relationsip@it =apan =apan is te tir!-larest ,. tra!in partner in te T""

neotiations9 an! te larest a&on te %ve T"" 6ountries@it @i6 te ,nite! tates !oes not ave an e>istin FTA.

,.. tra!e @it =apan @as 21+ *illion in &er6an!ise an! ' *illion inservi6es in 2012.

Man; vie@ =apans parti6ipation as pivotal to enan6in te

6re!i*ilit; an! via*ilit; o te T"" as a reional ree tra!earrane&ent9 an! *elieve it &a; en6ourae oter

=apanese ar&ers ave *een vo6al opponents o te T"" over 6on6ernso in6rease! orein 6o&petition.

Te $etroit-*ase! ,.. auto in!ustr;9 te ,nite! Auto@orBers union9an! Me&*ers o Conress @it a lare auto-in!ustr; presen6e in teir!istri6ts ave e>presse! stron opposition to =apans involve&ent inte T""

A lare se&ent o te ,.. *usiness6o&&unit; as e>presse! support or

=apanese parti6ipation in te T""9 i =apan6an resolve lon-stan!in issues ona66ess to its &arBets or ,.. oo!s9servi6es9 an! ari6ulture.


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Ta*le A 1


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Ta*le A-1.,.. :oo!s Tra!e @it T"" Countries9

2012(in &illions o ,.. !ollars9 or!ere! *; total tra!e)

our6e? ,.. nternational Tra!e Co&&ission.

Ta*le A 2


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our6e? ureau o E6ono&i6 Anal;sis9 urve; o Current

Ta*le A-2.ervi6es Tra!e @it T"" Countries9

2012(in &illions o ,.. !ollars9 or!ere! *; total tra!e)


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2.. Te T"" An! Te3T#

Te !e*ate over @eter FTAs ave a positive or neative ee6t on te&ultilateral s;ste& 6ontinues.

"roponents o *ilateral an! reional aree&ents @oul! arue tat?

u66essul neotiation an! i&ple&entation opropose! ne@ tra!e rules in te T""9 on su6e&erin issues as tate-o@ne! enterprises an!reulator; 6oeren6e9 6oul! serve as a te&plate oruture 3T# neotiations.

Te inuen6e o te T"" i&pa6t 6oul! *e reat !ue to its potential

e>pansion an!9 en6e9 te a6t tat it 6oul! eventuall; ae6t a su*stantiala&ount o @orl! tra!e/over +0 o ,.. tra!e alone is @it oter A"EC&e&*ers.

A su66essul T"" aree&ent a&on te 6urrent neotiatinpartners 6oul! 6ause oter reional e6ono&ies to 6onsi!er

Goinin(as seen re6entl; @it te a!!ition o Cana!a9 =apan9an! Me>i6o) in or!er to ensure te; re&ain 6o&petitive inT"" &arBets9 tus urterin te 3T# oal o reater lo*altra!e li*eralization an!

T"" 6oul! elp pro&ote an! ensure te lonevit; oT"" 6oul! elp pro&ote an! ensure te lonevit; o!o&esti6 e6ono&i6 poli6; reor&s9 parti6ularl; or6ountries su6 as ietna&.


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2..Te T"" an!te 3T#

Eorts to@ar! te T"" an! oter reionalK*ilateral FTAs&a; !ivert attention an! resour6es ro& &ultilateral 3T#eorts

#pponents9 o@ever9 @oul! 6ounter tat?

n6rease! tra!e a&on T"" &e&*ers !ue to tepreerential tari stru6tures o te aree&ent 6oul!

si&pl; *e !iverte! ro& oter reions rater tan *ene@l; 6reate! an! Te sprea! o FTAs &a; a6tuall; &aBe international

6o&&er6e &ore !iO6ult as 6o&panies &ust naviatevar;in rules an! stan!ar!s asso6iate! @it !ierentaree&ents


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1) Core Neotiatin ssues? MarBet A66ess

MAtiles9 Apparel9 an!Foot@ear

Tra!e in ervi6es

:overn&ent"ro6ure&ent

A:C,LT,E

MarBet A66ess or!er "rote6tion ssues or

ensitive Ari6ultural"ro!u6ts

Ari6ultural ssues in #terT"" Capters

2.. Neotiatin Topi6s n T"" ("otentialCapters)


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') Ne@ an! Cross-Cuttin ssues eulator; Coeren6e tate-#@ne! Enterprises E-Co&&er6e Co&petitiveness an! uppl; Cains

&all- an! Me!iu&-ize! Enterprises

Supply Chains

2.. Neotiatin Topi6s n T"" ("otentialCapters)


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D [ A


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ftas in norteast asia and tpp

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