from recession to recovery: the status and outlook for economic growth in the african-american...

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From Recession to Recovery: The Status and Outlook for Economic Growth in the African-American Community

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The National Association of Real Estate Brokers 64th Annual ConventionPresented by:LaVaughn M. Henry, Ph.D.Vice President & Sr. Regional OfficerFed. Reserve Bank of ClevelandAugust 7, 2011

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  • 1. From Recession to Recovery: The Status and Outlook for EconomicGrowth in the African-American Community

2. 2 3. 3 4. Homeownership Rates have decreased for alldemographics groups since their peak1994Q1Peak2011Q290.080.076.2 73.7 69.870.060.049.750.150.0 44.246.642.1 40.340.030.020.010.00.0African-AmericanHispanicWhiteSource: Census Bureau4 5. but African-American Homeownership Rates fellsharply during the economic boom period..52.050.048.046.044.042.040.0Source: Census Bureau5 6. much before House Price Appreciationbegan to fall S&P Case Shiller National Price IndexAA Homeownership Rate20.0% 51.00Correlation Coefficient: 0.3415.0% 50.0010.0% 49.005.0%48.000.0%47.00-5.0% 46.00-10.0%45.00-15.0%44.00-20.0%43.00-25.0%42.002004Q1 2009Q31998Q1 1998Q31999Q1 1999Q32000Q1 2000Q32001Q1 2001Q32002Q1 2002Q32003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q32005Q1 2005Q32006Q1 2006Q32007Q1 2007Q32008Q1 2008Q32009Q12010Q1 2010Q3Source: S&P Case Shiller, Mortgage Bankers Association6 7. and much before Subprime ForeclosureRates began to rise Foreclosure Rate - Subprime Loans AA Homeownership Rate5.00 51.00 Correlation Coefficient: -0.284.50 50.004.00 49.003.50 48.003.00 47.002.50 46.002.00 45.001.50 44.001.000.50 43.000.00 42.00Source: Mortgage Bankers Association7 8. and before Unemployment Rates for African-Americans began to rise.AA Unemployment Rate AA Homeownership Rate18.0051.00 Correlation Coefficient: -0.3116.0050.0014.0049.0012.0048.0010.0047.008.00 46.006.00 45.004.00 44.002.00 43.000.00 42.00Source: S&P Case Shiller, Mortgage Bankers Association8 9. 9 10. Unemployment Rates of African-Americans remaintwice as high as that of white AmericansAfrican-AmericanHispanic White, non-Hispanic 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00Rate8.006.004.002.000.00 Nov-00Dec-02 Nov-05Dec-07 Nov-10Apr-01 Sep-01Oct-03 Mar-04Apr-06 Sep-06 May-08Oct-08 Mar-09Apr-11 Jan-00Feb-02 May-03 Jan-05Feb-07 Jan-10Aug-04Aug-09 Jul-02Jun-00Jun-05 Jul-07Jun-10Source: : Bureau of Labor Statistics10 11. with Employment Growth of African-Americanssuffering greatly during the Great Recession.10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.6% 3.7% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%White -2.0%-1.2% Black -4.0%Hispanic -6.0%-5.7% -8.0%Source: : Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey11 12. A major cause of the decline has been the loss of jobsin the manufacturing and construction sectors 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Total Nonfarm -5.0% Government-10.0% Construction Manufacturing-15.0%-20.0%-25.0% Dec-03 to Dec- Dec-05 to Dec-Dec-07 to Jun-09 to Jun-05 07Jun-0911 Pre-BubbleHousing Bubble RecessionRecoverySource: : Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey12 13. 13 14. Median Household Income fell significantly for allgroups during the Great Recession10.0%8.0%12-Month %age Change6.0%4.0%2.0% African-American0.0% Hispanic White-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%Source: : Census Bureau14 15. however, Median Net Worth declined waslargest for persons of color20052009 $180,000 $168,103 $160,000 $140,000$134,992 $120,000 $113,149 $100,000$78,066 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $18,359 $12,124 $20,000$6,325$5,677 $-WhitesHispanicsAfrican-AmericansAsiansSource: : PEW Research Center15 16. with the collapse of the housing marketbeing the primary cause of the decline.Median Net Worth of Households with and Without Home Equity, 2005 and 2009Total Excluding Home Equity20052009Change20052009ChangeAll $96,894$70,000-$26,894 $17,088 $13,566-$3,522Whites $134,992$113,149 -$21,843 $32,961 $29,169-$3,792Hispanics $18,359 $6,325-$12,034 $3,285$2,806 -$479African-$12,124 $5,677-$6,447$1,676$1,050 -$626AmericansAsians $168,103$78,066-$90,037 $27,137 $20,300-$6,837 Source: : PEW Research Center16 17. African-Americans and Hispanics are much moredependent on the housing market for wealth creation.WhitesHispanics African-Americans Asians2005 2009 2005 200920052009 2005 2009Own44%38%65%55% 59% 56%50%35%Home Stocksand 8%16%3%3% 2% 5%6% 32% Mutual FundsIRA andKEOUGH 9%10%3%6% 5% 6%6% 6%accounts 401(k)and thrift11%12%8% 11% 12% 14%10%10%accountsUnsecured-3%-5%-5%-13%-7% -12% -3%-4%Liabilities Source: : PEW Research Center17 18. However, despite the downturn, wealthconcentration grew within all groups.Share of Wealth Held by the Wealthiest 10% of Households, 2005 and 20092005 2009 80% 72% Percent of Group Wealth Share 70%67%59%61% 60% 56% 51% 50% 46% 44% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%Whites Hispanics African-AmericansAsiansSource: : PEW Research Center18 19. So where do we go from here? Wealth creation in the AA community is criticallydependent upon improvement in the labor market National unemployment rates are projected toremain high through at least the end of 2012,thwarting significant improvement in the housingmarket Significant recovery in the AA housing market willrequire non-traditional approaches to addressissues of economic blight, foreclosure, and credit19 20. Thank You.20