From OAU to AU, One Banda to another, Malawi comes full circle

In reigns of Dr. Banda, Muluzi & Mutharika – with a foreign policy perspective

An analytical comparison of Grants in US$ and

number of active donors

Garvey Karvei /Wise One from the East Collaboration

A note on the Data•All amounts represent Net bilateral aid flows only from DAC donors (at current US$)

•Reference to non-DAC donors, e.g. Libya, RSA, is meant to enhance context.

•Chinese figures have never been publicized. Rather than hazard guesses, no mention has been made at all about both Chinas

•The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) is a 24 member donor group, the EU inclusive. More info on http://www.oecd.org/document/1/0,3746,en_2649_33721_46662849_1_1_1_1,00.html

•Data Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/malawi/net-bilateral-aid-flows-from-dac-donors

"My first duty is towards my people.

If, in order to look after my people, I

have to deal with the devil, I will do so."

Dr. Hastings Kamuzu Banda, addressing theUnited Nations in 1967

What followed, in terms of aid…..

One can deduce a few things from the trend…

(1)

Dr. Banda & his policies widened the donor-base

from 1 (UK) in 1962 to 23. 2 withheld funds from 1992

(2)

Save for the periods between

1982-85 and 1992, aid in absolute

terms, was always increasing

Trend of Grants US$ and Number of donors - Dr Banda era

-50

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992

Millions

US

$

0

5

10

15

20

25

Num

ber of D

onors

G rantsNumber of DonorsL inear (G rants )

(2)1982/85 drop

Developments surrounding the

Mwanza Accident

Trend of Grants US$ and Number of donors - Dr Banda era

-50

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992

Millions

US

$

0

5

10

15

20

25

Num

ber of D

onors

G rantsNumber of DonorsL inear (G rants )

(2) Trend of Grants US$ and Number of donors - Dr Banda era

-50

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992

Millions

US

$

0

5

10

15

20

25

Num

ber of D

onors

G rantsNumber of DonorsL inear (G rants )

1983:Aaron Gadama,

Dick Matenje, Mr Sangala & Mr

Chiwanga were murdered

Impact

(3) 1992 drop

Donors’ solidarity with Malawians in the fight for

democracy

Trend of Grants US$ and Number of donors - Dr Banda era

-50

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992

Millions

US

$

0

5

10

15

20

25

Num

ber of D

onors

G rantsNumber of DonorsL inear (G rants )

FACT:Even with the

increasing goodwill, without apartheid SA’s

help, Lilongwe City and related

developments would have remained

‘Gweru’ dreams!

Trend of Grants US$ and Number of donors - Dr Banda era

-50

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992

Millions

US

$

0

5

10

15

20

25

Num

ber of D

onors

G rantsNumber of DonorsL inear (G rants )

On the basis of the aforegoing:

1. Dr. Banda`s policies towards widening the donor base to avoid putting all eggs in one basket, paid off;

2. The DAC donors of course do not condone human rights abuses and autocracy;

3. Rebuffing the OAU stance on apartheid RSA was, in Malawi‘s economic context…..

…strategic and was later vindicated by history.

IF Lilongwe City is anything to go by, Malawi stance paid dividends.

1994

Exit Enter

A graphic view of the reign of Bakili Muluzi versus aid

(1) Bakili Muluzi inherited 23

donors, with 20 active in 1994 and finished with same

23 (save for new Arab benefactors)

(1)During his decade,

Denmark, scaled down heavily, 2 others wavered

(2)Grants nose-dived

in 1997 (corruption) and 2001-02 (third

term agenda and shrinking political

space)

(3)Muluzi wooed back 2 donors

that had deserted Malawi in 1992

(3)…and found it

tough-going with the Danes who scaled down in

2001 Denmark

It was not very surprising that he increasingly courted ‘donors’ like

Libya to bring some level of stability

2004

• Exit Bakili Muluzi

• Enter Bingu wa Mutharika

(1) Bingu inherited 23 donors, and finished with

same 23

(2) Grants were from 2004 to 2010, ever-

increasing and with them

donor-dependence

Switzerland- minor donor

(3) At the time this was compiled, data for 2011

and 12 was not available…

BUT notable is the fact that

2011/12 Malawi disastrously

experimented with a zero

deficit budget

The zero deficit budget has in 2012/13 been abandoned,

condemned as an ill-timed and

unrealistic experiment.

Sadly Bingu wa Mutharika did

not live to defend his theories

/experiments

Trend of Grants US$ and Number of donors - Mutharika era

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Millions

US

$

21,4

21,6

21,8

22

22,2

22,4

22,6

22,8

23

23,2

Num

ber of D

onors

G rants Number of Donors

2012•Enters Mrs Joyce Banda to finish Bingu wa Mutharika‘s term

Baptism of fire!

Host Omar al-Bashir, and be a African hero like Bingu wa Mutharika,

Mugabe & Co…

Host Omar al-Bashir, and forget the MCC Compact

and face the music….

Bye bye AU, we have been down this road before…Remember Dr. Banda?

Test Result

...any way thanks for the offer to host the summit

but NO, thank you. U can stuff the summit!

Has Joyce Banda passed the test?

…open for debate…

"I respect the decision of the African Union to move the summit to Addis Ababa. To me what comes first is Malawi and Malawians.

I respect President Bashir as president of Sudan.

I am the president of the Republic of Malawi and my main agenda is to put Malawi on economic recovery.“

- Joyce Banda on June 14, 2012 at Chileka Airport

• Is it surprising at all and is Mrs Joyce Banda wrong to walk in Dr Banda‘s footsteps?

• …see final graph

Closing Remarks

This chart shows the maximum

reached in terms

of net aid received for each

of Malawi‘s

3 past leaders

• Where in hell did Bingu wa Mutharika get the idea that he could do without the west when all this evidence more than proves that his tenure is when aid in dollar terms reached the highest?

• May be we should ask, where did the dollars in 2010 go?

Indeed, from the OAU to AU,One Banda to another,

3 men to a woman,Malawi has come full circle.

Good-bye AU, it was good chairing you, but we find accepting the reality easier!

Epilogue