from fresh to salt water · from fresh to salt water salt intrusion in the delta area of the river...
TRANSCRIPT
25 september 2007
Vincent Beijk
From Fresh to Salt WaterSalt Intrusion in the Delta Area of the River Rhine
25 september 2007
Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 2
Introduction
• Description of the Rhine delta• Salt intrusion in the Rhine delta• Effects of climate change on salt intrusion• Possible measures• Discussion
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 3
Introduction
• Description of the Rhine delta• Salt intrusion in the Rhine delta• Effects of climate change on salt intrusion• Possible measures• Discussion
25 september 2007
Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 4
Introduction
• Description of the Rhine delta• Salt intrusion in the Rhine delta• Effects of climate change on salt intrusion• Possible measures• Discussion
25 september 2007
Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 5
Introduction
• Description of the Rhine delta• Salt intrusion in the Rhine delta• Effects of climate change on salt intrusion• Possible measures• Discussion
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 6
Introduction
• Description of the Rhine delta• Salt intrusion in the Rhine delta• Effects of climate change on salt intrusion• Possible measures• Discussion
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 7
Rhine Delta
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 8
Rhine deltaStormsurge barrierMaeslant storm surge
barrier
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 9
Rhine delta Hartel barrier
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 10
Rhine delta Haringvliet sluices
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 11
Rhine delta
Philipsdam
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 12
Salt Intrusion
• Different connections between the Rhine and the North Sea
• Amount of salt intrusion in the Rhine delta is determined by different factors
• Seepage through groundwater flow
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 13
Rhine delta
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 14
Salt Intrusion
• Different connections between the Rhine and the North Sea
• Amount of salt intrusion in the Rhine delta is determined by different factors
– Sea level– Discharge– Geometry
• Seepage through groundwater flow
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 15
Salt Intrusion
East West
Fresh
Salt
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 16
Salt Intrusion
• Different connections between the Rhine and the North Sea
• Amount of salt intrusion in the Rhine delta is determined by different factors
• Seepage through groundwater flow
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 17
Rhine delta
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Salt Intrusion
Characteristicyear
Return period(yr)
Extreme Saline
1976 32
Saline 2003 11
Brackisch 1996 3.3
ModeratelyBrackisch
1994 1.6
Fresh 2002 1.2
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Salt Intrusion
Return period (yr) Clmax, year (mg/l)
2 1514
5 2183
10 2626
20 3050
50 3600
100 4013
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Rhine deltacurrent 1 in 1.2 yr
current 1 in 11 yr
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Effects of Climate Change
G scenario
G+ scenario
W scenario
W+ scenario
Worldwide rise in temperature +1oC +1oC +2oC +2oC
Change in large scale air circulation pattern
No Yes No Yes
Winter
Mean temperature +0,9oC +1,1oC +1,8oC +2.3oC
Mean precipitation +4% +7% +7% +14%
Summer
Mean temperature +0,9oC +1,4oC +1,7oC +2,8oC
Mean precipitation +3% -10% +6% -19%
Sea level rise 15-25 cm
15-25 cm
20-35 cm
20-35 cm
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Effects of Climate Change
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Decade of days
Rel
ativ
e ch
ange
in R
hine
dis
char
ge (%
)
G
G+
W
W+
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Rhine delta1 in 1.2 yr G
1 in 11 yr G
1 in 1.2 yr W+
1 in 11 yr W+
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 24
Extraction points
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Effects of Climate Change
Gouda (Hollandsche IJssel) Total duration of exceedance (>250mg/l; >48 uur)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Num
ber o
f day
s
Extreme Saline 72 85 138 89 161
Saline 46 54 102 60 146
Brackish 0 0 43 0 73
Moderately Brackish 0 0 0 0 34
Fresh 0 0 0 0 0
Current G G+ W W+
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Extraction points
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 27
Effects of Climate Change
Bernisse (Spui)Total duration of exceedance (days) (>150 mg/l; >7uur)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Num
ber o
f day
s
Extreme Saline 102 122 142 128 151
Saline 57 69 95 54 118
Brackish 4 4 9 5 25
Moderately Brackish 2 2 2 3 4
Fresh 1 2 3 2 2
Current G G+ W W+
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 28
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 29
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
– Changing geometry of the Nieuwe Waterweg
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 30
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 31
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
– Desalination units for drinking water supply
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 32
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 33
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning– Possibly very effective but low feasibility
• Alternative fresh water supply
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 34
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 35
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
– Fresh water supply at local or residential level
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 36
Possible Measures
• Prevention of (increased) salination through technical solutions
• Compensation of (increased) salination by technical and/or financial measures
• Spatial planning• Alternative fresh water supply
– Fresh water supply at local or residential level– Relocation of extraction points
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 37
Conclusions
• Salt intrusion will enhance due to climate change
• The “+-scenarios” will have the largest effect• Fresh water supply will be effected• Social and economic consequences are still
uncertain • Feasible measures are not readily available
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 38
Conclusions
• Salt intrusion will enhance due to climate change
• The “+-scenarios” will have the largest effect• Fresh water supply will be effected• Social and economic consequences are still
uncertain • Feasible measures are not readily available
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 39
Conclusions
• Salt intrusion will enhance due to climate change
• The “+-scenarios” will have the largest effect• Fresh water supply will be effected• Social and economic consequences are still
uncertain • Feasible measures are not readily available
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Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 40
Conclusions
• Salt intrusion will enhance due to climate change
• The “+-scenarios” will have the largest effect• Fresh water supply will be effected• Social and economic consequences are still
uncertain• Feasible measures are not readily available
25 september 2007
Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 41
Conclusions
• Salt intrusion will enhance due to climate change
• The “+-scenarios” will have the largest effect• Fresh water supply will be effected• Social and economic consequences are still
uncertain • Feasible measures are not readily available
25 september 2007
Effect of low flows on the delta area of the Rhine river 42
Discussion