From Famine to Prosperity in Rural Ethiopia: The Roles of Water Management, Farmer Innovation and Government

PoliciesDouglas Merrey

January 9th, 2014

“Great Decisions” presentation

Famine

Starvation

Poverty

Misery

Drought

What is your first reaction when you hear the word“Ethiopia”?

TV and news magazine coverage

Live Aid concert to raise funds (Bob Geldorf)

Ethiopia as a hopeless tragic basket case

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Hunger, poverty have not been eradicated yet

BUT much has changed for the better.

Ethiopia is moving in the right direction – poverty reduction, improvement of people’s lives.

This is its story in brief, illustrated with work I have been involved in for the past decade

Our impressions fixed by images from famines 70s & 80s

Location and Map

2000 years of ancient history in 1 page

Ancient Christian civilization claiming direct connections to Solomon through Queen of Sheba (Axum)

Its own script, calendar, versions of Christian saints

Arc of the Covenant

Highly stratified feudal system: Emperor, Landlords, Church owned all the land and absorbed surpluses

Peasants were serfs until Emperor Haile Selassie was overthrown 1974

Before we free the serfs …:

Ancient unique history and culture—pride

Never colonized despite British and later Italian attempts

Emperor Haile Selassie as hero in resistance to Italy in 30s

Culturally highly diverse –our image is largely based on Amhara and Tigraycultural model

Origin of coffeeCoffee ceremony

Ethiopian Geography

Highlands

Population concentrated

High rainfall but very seasonal and erratic

“Water tower” – 85% of water flowing down Nile to Egypt

20th Century Trends

Rapid population growth

Little investment in infrastructure, education, public health

Farmers forced to cultivate steep slopes, poor land (no alternative) Little technological innovation

Erosion, loss of nutrients in land

All these combined with drought, corrupt & ineffective government FAMINE, REVOLUTION

Recent political history-the Derg

Famine in 1970s – undermined Haile Selassie’s regime

1974: Takeover by “Derg” – communist-leaning regime led by military Period of extreme brutality, civil war almost continuous

Govt. concentrated on agriculture, rural development

Implemented radical reforms in rural areas: confiscated all lands; collective farms; local “Peasant Associations” which controlled local resources; periodic redistribution of land to maintain “equality”

Tried to drive development from top – quotas to be filled, forced labor

1980s: Little foreign assistance except food aid; the beginnings of the “Sustainable Land Management” [SLM]programs

The EPRDF

Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and allies (Eritrean People’s Liberation Front) defeated Derg in 1991 and took over—remains the ruling party

Established a new government and invited foreign partners

Continuities and new directions for the country

Meles Zenawi (d. 2012) & Hailemariam Desalegn

Federal Democratic Government of Ethiopia

Federal structure, nominally democratic

Ceremonial president; powerful Prime Minster [elections every 5 years]

Funds, policies, planning from top

Implementation at local community, district & Regional State levels

Constitutional guarantee of gender equity

EPRDF has leftist roots but highly pragmatic Single-minded focus on developing the country “Agriculture Led Industrial Development” Coherent, ambitious programs for poverty reduction,

education, primary health care, climate adaptation, environmental conservation, roads, water development (hydro-electric, irrigation)

Attracted massive foreign assistance, investments by diaspora, and growing investments by multi-national firms Economic growth 7-10% annually

Big push to develop advanced education and research capacities---collaboration with foreign institutionsIn a hurry to develop the country—want to be “middle

income” by 2020 – leads to impatience with delays but open to learning from experience and changing policies based on

evidence

Government Policies

Current population and

growth

94 million currently 2.9%/year

(high!)

Education: kids in primary

school

27% in 1994 100% today

Life expectancy 49 in 1974 62 in 2011

Infant mortality 174/1000 in 1985-90 58/1000 now

Poverty rate 45.5% in 1995 28% now

GDP/capita $160 in 1994 $410 now

Food IN-security high & little change 2 – 7 m people

Malnutrition (% under-weight

kids <5 years old)

47.2% in 2000 +/- 30% today

Some progress but long road ahead

Ethiopian Highland Farms Mixed crops & livestock (cattle)

Crop type varies with altitude, rainfall, soils: teff. rice, wheat, corn, barley, sorghum, potatoes, vegetables, fruit trees, coffee, qat

Oxen for plowing

Very small holdings: half acre to perhaps 3 acres

Mostly depend on rainfall, though irrigation is expanding

Many farmers need to find off-farm work to survive

Sustainable Land Management (SLM)

Land degradation perceived as the major “cause” of famines in the 1980s

Big push – research on technologies and investments in promoting soil water conservation practices

Food for Work [FfW] to support implementation, 1980s to present

Why SLM?

Erosion, loss topsoil & nutrients

declining production

Siltation of downstream canals, dams

Building ridges, terraces, “bunds”, changing farming practices to reverse degradation

Benefits to farmer over time

Benefits to people downstream

Requires farmers to cooperate on their watersheds

Blue Nile Falls

The Reality—Silt on its way to Sudan The Myth-Pristine Water Flow

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Examples of SLM Interventions (Soil Water Conservation)

Fodder on bund

Water storage pond

Terraces

Derg and early EPDRF period – quotas set from above Forced labor – built on tradition of requiring labor contributions

from all families for community projects

But project defined by government not community

Required in order to participate in FfW programs – which were critical to meeting family food requirements

End of Dergmany communities destroyed infrastructure that had been built Expansion of programs FfW programs with donor support in

1990s [“incentivized”]

Gradual transformation: more focused on public works that actually benefit people; consultation on community priorities

“Safety net” programs now institutionalized for SLM, other community works

Implementation: From Coerced to “Incentivized” Participation

Towards Community-driven SLM Programs

Planning now formally combination of community-proposed investments and final plans imposed from top “Participatory’ rhetoric,

combined with local development officials whose performance is assessed based on quotas from the top

Example of household ponds campaign

Continued dependence on FfW, also Cash for Work —“safety net”

$1B/year investment

Construction of terraces:

Increased soil depths

Increased soil fertility

Hence,

Increased productivity

Sustained agric. production

Use of agric. inputs becomes viable

Impacts

Rehabilitation of degraded hillsides to productive woodlots

Ground water recharged and base flow enhanced

Impacts

Nile Basin Development Challenge

Multi-disciplinary multi-institutional researchprogram partnering international and Ethiopian institutions

Combines action research with communities, communication & training programs, and frequent interactions with policy makers

Community engagement

Stakeholder Capacity Building

A lot of talk about ‘participatory planning’ but difficult to put it

into action.

WAT-A-GAME- Participatory planning for NRM

(www.watagame.info)

Regional Experts and Decision Makers

Applied research will continue in partnership with Government

State Minister for Natural Resources

With a key decision-maker in Agriculture Ministry

Workshop small group

Rural Ethiopia Today Poverty persists but no longer a

massive global basket case

Many people are beginning to prosper and opportunities for the future are improving

Visit to a rural market town

Addis Ababa

Past, Present, Future

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THANK YOU!

Are you with me?