friday lunchtime lecture: when the dust settles - open data and the 2015 general election
DESCRIPTION
The 2015 general election is rapidly approaching. What will the UK Government look like after the 7 May 2015? What are the challenges that lay ahead?Gavin Freeguard from the Institute for Government uses open data charts from the Whitehall Monitor to pinpoint some of the pressures that could face a new government and will discusses how the UK can continue to lead the open data agenda after the election.Gavin joined the Institute For Government in August 2013 and his work is currently focused on Whitehall Monitor and transparency in government contracts. He was previously political adviser on culture, media and sport to Harriet Harman MP and, before that, deputy director of the Orwell Prize and senior researcher at the Media Standards Trust.You can listen to this lecture here - https://soundcloud.com/theodi/friday-lunchtime-lecture-open-data-and-the-2015-general-election-dataOur videos: bit.ly/odi_vimeoOur photos: bit.ly/odi_flickrOur audio: bit.ly/odi_soundcloudOur slides: bit.ly/odi_scribdOur tweets: bit.ly/ODIHQ_tweetsOur website: theodi.orgODI Summit videos: bit.ly/odisummit_videoWhat is open data?: bit.ly/what-is-open-dataTRANSCRIPT
When the dust settles:Open data and the 2015 General Election
@GavinFreeguard@instituteforgov
2
The Institute for Government aims to make government more effective
• Established 2008• Non-partisan charity• Mission to help make government more effective• Combination of research and learning activity – not as distinct strands – but to look at how government should improve and help it to do so
3
Whitehall Monitor is the IfG’s data-driven analysis of the size, shape and performance of government
4
Whitehall Monitor 2014 has three components
The resources available to Whitehall
What Whitehall does with those resources
The real world impact of Whitehall’s actions
Whitehall Monitor focuses on four narratives
What government looks like in 2014• Departments differ in terms of their resources, their
roles and the demands made upon them
How government has changed since 2010• Smaller budgets, fewer staff, morale (largely) same• Reforms have changed what some departments do
How transparent government is• Some improvements – e.g. Major Projects Authority• But still work to do – e.g. financial transparency
Where are pressure points post-2015?
Few ministers remain in the same posts as May 2010…
Government reshuffles 2010-14 – when ministers took up current post (as of 1 November 2014)
Tenure of permanent secretaries, May 2010 – September 2014 from when first appointed
… as do not-so-permanent secretaries
Departments have remained stable
Total Managed Expenditure by department, plans for 2013-14
Departmental budgets vary in size…
Total Managed Expenditure by department, plans for 2013-14
Departmental budgets vary in size…
Planned and implied resource DEL spend in selected areas (OBR)
…and the pressures they could face post-2015
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and Fiscal Outlook Table G: Implied breakdown of RDEL in 2019-20 (December 2014)
2009-10 2014-15 2019-20£0bn
£50bn
£100bn
£150bn
£200bn
Health
Other RDEL
Education
International Aid
Departmental assets and liabilities 2009-10 and 2012-13
Some departments have large – and increasing – liabilities
Departmental assets and liabilities 2009-10 and 2012-13
Some departments have large – and increasing – liabilities
Extent of devolved responsibility by department
‘Barnett Consequentials’ differ between departments
DfE DCLG DH Defra
DCMS DfT
Law HO
BIS MoJ
CO CxD
DWP DECC
FCO MoDDfID
TOTAL
0%
100%
Transparency of departmental spending plans
Transparency about spending changes is often lacking
Staff numbers are down by over 70,000
Civil Service staff numbers
The Civil Service is at its smallest since World War Two
Civil Service staff numbers - % cut since Spending Review 2010
DCMS and DCLG have had the biggest cuts…
Civil Service staff numbers (managed department), 2014 Q2
…but are amongst the smallest departments
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000DWP
MoJ
HMRC
MoD
HO
FCO DfE BIS CO Defra DfID DH DfT DCLG DECC HMT DCMS
Civil Service staff numbers (managed department), 2014 Q2
DWP, MoJ, HMRC and MoD are the biggest departments…
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000DWP
MoJ
HMRC
MoD
HO
FCO DfE BIS CO Defra DfID DH DfT DCLG DECC HMT DCMS
Civil Service staff numbers - % cut since Spending Review 2010
…and so DWP, MoJ, HMRC and MoD have accounted for the bulk of cuts
Civil Service Engagement Index, 2009-2014
Civil Service morale has largely held up…
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%
25%
50%
75%
100%
58% 56% 56% 58% 58% 59%
…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…
…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…
…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…
…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…
…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…
…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…
Civil Service Engagement Index, 2013
…and on themes, like pay
Civil Service Engagement Index, 2013
…and on themes, like pay
31
Resource Management Models, 2014
Departments manage their resources in different ways…
32
Department of Health – change in model
…and some have changed what they do since 2010
33
Total number of non-departmental public bodies (NDPBs), 1979 to 2014
‘The Bonfire of the Quangos’ is a numbers game, but arm’s-length body reform shouldn’t be
34
Greater transparency is needed on government contracting
Largest suppliers’ revenues from central government by department, 2013
35
Written Parliamentary questions submitted to each department, 2013-14
Work and Pensions, Health receive most information requests…
36
Overall rankings for responses to information requests
…and are reasonably good in responding on time
37
Delivery confidence for major projects across government, 2013 and 2014
Major projects remain a pressure point…
38
Delivery confidence for major projects across government, 2013 and 2014
Major projects remain a pressure point…
39
…but more projects have improved in delivery confidence
Change in delivery confidence for major projects, 2013 to 2014
40
Usability of departments’ impact indicators
Impact is difficult to measure – and to find
41
‘Which three things do you think UK politicians should prioritise?’ and‘Which three things do you think UK politicians prioritise at the moment?’
There is a large expectation gap
42
There is a large expectation gap‘Which three things do you think UK politicians should prioritise?’ and
‘Which three things do you think UK politicians prioritise at the moment?’
43
‘About the government. How satisfied are you with the way it is doing its job?’
GB mid-ranking in public perception of effectiveness
44
Government faces a number of pressure points post-2015
Ministers and Permanent Secretaries• Departments need more stable leadership
Spending• The Government needs greater insight and tighter controls to
ensure the sustainability of spending cuts
Workforce• The Civil Service needs to change how it works if it is going to
cope with the further cuts it faces
Reforms• Whitehall needs to continue raising its skills to successfully
deliver government reforms
Public perceptions• Politicians need to convince the public that they can run
government effectively
45
The agenda has been driven across parties and across governments
2003 UK Advisory Panel on Public Sector Information established 2007 Blair Government launches Power of Information Review 2008 Brown Government initiates Power of Information Taskforce 2009 Power of Information Taskforce Report
Tim Berners-Lee and Nigel Shadbolt appointed as advisors to the UK Government on opening up access to government data
2010 Data.gov.uk officially launched
Letter from Prime Minister Cameron setting out Transparency agenda 2011 Open Government Partnership established 2012 Open Data White Paper: unleashing the potential published
Open Data Institute founded 2013 G8 Open Data Charter
46
The quality of data can be improved…
Availability and access• Make data – and series – easier to find• Use straightforward and machine-readable formats• Structure it in ways that are easy to analyse
Purpose and documentation• Make clear the scope and purpose of the data• Document the degree of confidence and label missing data
consistently• Develop consistent labels for departments
Comparability• Report on consistent boundaries and explicit groupings• Provide consistent reporting across departments• Explain changes and allow reconciliation between sources
47
…as can making data informative…
48
…and data is most powerful when used for a purpose
When the dust settles:Open data and the 2015 General Election
@GavinFreeguard@instituteforgov