[free release] led industry outlook in 2011
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LED Industry Overview , LED Supply Side Forecast , LED Demand Side Forecast , Competitions Between LED IndustryTRANSCRIPT
19 November 2010| Page 1
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Industry
Outlook in 2011
Roger Chu
02 Nov. 2010
19 November 2010| Page 2
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Our Research Department
集邦科技
Intelligence
(DRAM, Flash) (Component, Panel, S/I) (LED, Applications) (Solar,Battery)
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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About LEDinside
Our Page view reaches 3.5 M per month
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LEDinside Market
Intelligence Service
Standard Price: 3,000 USD
Silver Member Service
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Gold Member Service
By Case
Subject Report
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Standard Price: USD 3,000
Update Frequency: Quarterly
Report Format: PDF & Excel
LEDinside-Silver Member Service
Quarterly Price Information (EXCEL)
Netbook/Notebook Application
Mobile Backlight Application
Large-sized Backlight (TV/Monitor) Application
Lighting (High Power) Application
Quarterly Market Trend (PDF)
Lighting Market Overview and Forecast
Backlight Market Overview and Forecast
Real-time Market Update (PDF)
Show Reports
Product Applications
Technology Development
Others
Back
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Standard Price: 12,000 USD
Update Frequency: Quarterly
Report format: Excel
Gold Member Service
Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary
WW High Brightness LED Market Forecast(Annual)
Worldwide LED Demand Forecast
Mobile Application
Medium-Large Display Backlight Application
Lighting Application Forecast
Automotive Lighting Application Forecast
Signs and Traffic Signals Forecast
Other Application Forecast
Worldwide LED Supply Forecast
Equipment Maker
Chip Maker
Pkg Maker
Cost Analysis Comapre to Traditional Light Source
Price Forecast in White LED
Mobile ,NB, Monitor,TV, Lighting Application
19 November 2010| Page 7
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Subject Report
Number of LED Chip Enterprises by Year
38
1317 17
2026 29
3238
46
64
75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1H
10
Ente
rprise N
um
ber
19 November 2010| Page 8
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Outline
1) LED Industry Overview
2) LED Supply Side Forecast
3) LED Demand Side Forecast
4) Competitions Between LED Industry
19 November 2010| Page 9
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Industry Overview
19 November 2010| Page 10
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Worldwide LED Revenue Ranking
USA
10%
Europe
12%
Japan
26%Korea
23%
Taiwan
19%
China
10%
WW LED Revenue in 2010 : $12.7 bn Breakdown By Region
USA
9%Europe
13%
Japan
27%Korea
24%
Taiwan
21%
China
6%
HB LED Revenue in 2010 : $8.6 bn Breakdown By Region
19 November 2010| Page 11
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mobile appliance Large display backlight
Lighting Automotive
Signs & Signal Other
Worldwide HB LED Market Forecast
2010~2014 CAGR 17%
HB LED Market Forecast (2010~2014)HB LED Market By Application (2010)
HB LED Market By Application (2014)
Mobile
appliance
16%
Large display
backlight
33%Lighting
21%
Automotive
11%
Signs &
Signal
10%
Other
9%
Mobile
appliance
5%
Large display
backlight
29%
Lighting
43%
Automotive
11%
Signs &
Signal
7%
Other
5%
19 November 2010| Page 12
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Supply Side Forecast
19 November 2010| Page 13
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Background of MOCVD Equipment Subsidy Policies in China
Self-sufficiency rate of China’s chip enterprises is quite low
LED demand in China surged. Self-sufficiency rate of China’s LED chips is only 47%. Hence,
developing epitaxial wafer / chip technology and increasing self-sufficiency rate of LED chips are the
major objectives in LED development for China’s government.
Bright future in LED application market
Except for a great potential in the general lighting market, new LED applications are discovered.
Official performance index
As the green energy industry is greatly supported by the China government, the LED industry is seen
as an important achievement.
By providing investment incentive policies, LED chip enterprises which have advanced technological
know-how are expected to set up plants in China. (Yangzhou-Forepi), other local governments have
also attracted the investment of leading LED chip manufacturers.
19 November 2010| Page 14
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Taiwan’s Enterprises Gain Subsidies and Close Interaction
Investor Company Type Notes
Epistar
Changzhou Jingpin Taiwan-capital
Xiamen Epi-sky Taiwan-capital
Dalian Jingtian China-Taiwan joint ventureJVS with Dalian Zhongjian
and Shanxi Guangyu
Shandong Guanquan Taiwan-capital JVS with UMC
Unilite Dongguan Unilite Taiwan-capital
Formosa
EpitaxyJiangsu Canyang
China-Taiwan joint
venture
JVS with AmTran, Unity
and etc
Genesis Dongguan Jingrui Taiwan-capital
Kunshan Genesis Taiwan-capital
Arima Shanxi Changzhi ArimaChina-Taiwan joint
venture
Opto tech Ningbo Opto tech Taiwan-capital
Powerchip Xuzhou Jingwang Taiwan-capital
Walsin
LihwaXian Walsin Lihwa Taiwan-capital
TyntekWuhan Yuanmao
TBC (project by Fuzhou Tyntek) Taiwan-capital
Bright LED
ElectronicsDongguan Gaohui
China-Taiwan joint
venture
AUO Lextar Taiwan-capital
Long term:
50 MOCVD units
Changzhou Jingpin:
30 MOCVD units
Shandong Guanquan :
Over 10 MOCVD units
Long term:
50 MOCVD units
Long term:
100 MOCVD units
Long term:
100 MOCVD units
2011 plan:
50 MOCVD units
19 November 2010| Page 15
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Greatest Growth on LED Capacities in China
700 MOCVD sets are planed in 2010.
MOCVD sets in 1H10 were in S.Korea and Taiwan.
MOCVD sets plan to be installed in China in 2H10.
MOCVD total installation volume (In Gan Base) MOCVD installation volume in 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Korea
Europe
US
Japan
China
Taiwan
Taiwan
32%
China
26%
Japan
7%
US
3%
Europe
1%
Korea
31%
19 November 2010| Page 16
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Demand Side Forecast-Backlight Market
19 November 2010| Page 17
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Application Trend for TV Backlight, 42”
- Luminous improvement and cost reduction continue to drive the market growth.
19 November 2010| Page 18
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Thick or Thin Films? Which Conducts TV Backlight ?
Direct Type
Edge Type
Diffuser Plate
Reflector
Optical Film
LCD Panel
Reflector
Optical Film
LGP
2H10~1H11
LED PKG 32*32*1.65mm
32*28(Sharp)
Diffuser 6.0t
LCM 20~25mm
2H09-
2H10
2011
LED PKG 5630
6046
5630/5620
4014/7020
LGP 3.0~3.5t 2.0~2.5t
LCM 10mm 9 mm
19 November 2010| Page 19
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Backlight Application Forecast
15%, and 18% respectively for LCD monitor and LCDTV in 2010
Driven by further cost and green consciousness, the penetration rate for LCD Monitor and LCD
TV are projected to reach 55% and 43% respectively for 2011.
Edge-lit backlight TV is dominating the market, while direct-lit backlight is slowly emerging.
19 November 2010| Page 20
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Demand Side Forecast-Lighting Market
19 November 2010| Page 21
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Overview of LED Lighting Market in 2010
Architectural
45%
Replacement
14%
Retail display
12%
Commercial/indust
rial
11%
Outdoor area
9%
Consumer
portable
4%
Entertainment
2%Residential
1%
Other
2%
The HB LED for Lighting ,Market size in 2010 is $1.8 bn, the LED usage volume reaches 7.5bn pcs.
High Power LED accounts for 76%, viewed from package type.
The greatest application segment is the architectural lighting, but the output value of the main
lighting is still at low level.
HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting
-By Pkg Type HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting
-By Application
19 November 2010| Page 22
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Lighting Application Forecast
The LED lighting market is projected to grow from US$1,017M in 2009 to US$8,175M in 2014, at
CAGR of 52%.
The highest growth rate will be coming from the replacement lamp, at CAGR of 92%, and we
have witnessed smooth adoption in Japan market.
The outdoor lighting will be evolving regularly as technology advance, though there are some
aggressive expectation, the projected CAGR is 43%.
19 November 2010| Page 23
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Replacement-Momentum of LED light bulbs decreased in Japan
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LED CFL Incandescent
LED電球は昨年夏にシャープが従来品の半額以下の製品を発売して以降、家電各社が同水準の価格で次々に販売。調査会社のGfKジャパンによると、電球市場に占めるLED電球の割合は、個数ベースで09年9月の約3%から10年9月は約19%に拡大している.
(2010年10月5日.東京朝刊)
High Power LED Price for per klm
20 18
16 15
14 12 10.90
9.22 8.44 7.78 7.22 7.08 6.846.16
0
5
10
15
20
25
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
USD
Price High Price Low
LED Bulb penetration rate in Japan
19 November 2010| Page 24
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Replacement-LED Light Bulb Is Emerging in the Long Term
LED bulb is projected to growth from less then 2% light bulb market this year to more than 10% by
2013.Driven by performance improvement, cost reduction and government policy, LED bulb is
emerging aggressively.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
5000
10000
15000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Incandescent Lamp Fluorescent Lamp
LED Lamp Others
LED Lamp Penetration Rate
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LED AC/DC Driver Optics Heat Sink
Housing E27 Socket Others
3X
Demand is driven by cost reduction LED bulb is emerging in the long term
LED Bulb
Retail Price
CFL Bulb
19 November 2010| Page 25
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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China40%
Taiwan1%USA
16%
Europe16%
Japan10%
Others18%
Outdoor Lighting – LED Streetlights Yet To Be Supported By Policies
China: Total LED streetlights installation volume in 2009 was around 250K, 287K in 2010.
Global LED streetlight installations in 2009 amounted to about 610 K units.
LED streetlight installation is estimated to reach 743 K units by 2010.
Source: LEDinside
Global Streetlight Installation Volume LED streetlights market shares in 2010
Source: LEDinside
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
unit:K
Quantity of newly installed LED streetlights
19 November 2010| Page 26
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Competitions Between LED Industry
19 November 2010| Page 27
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Supply Chain for LED Backlight TV
Korean LED vendors enjoy more stable adoptive application from well implemented
vertical integration.
More challenges for less vertical integrated Japan and Taiwan vendors on resource
alignment and cost pressure.
19 November 2010| Page 28
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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USA
LED Lighting Competitive Landscape
Chip
LEDs
Bulb
EU
Module
Osra
m
System
Traditional
lluminaire co.
Zum
tobel
Philip
s
GE
Cooper
Panasonic
Toshib
a
NE
C
Everlig
h
t
Delta
Japan Korea TWN
Cre
e
Sam
sung L
ED
LG
Innote
k
Seoul S
em
iconducto
r
Lexta
r(A
UO
)
CM
I
Epistar
Forepi
Nuventix
Acuity
Okam
ura
Sharp
Citiz
en
Rohm
TG
Nic
hia
Kum
ho
TR
ILU
X
iGuzzin
i
Schre
der
Hubbell
LED focused co.
Edis
on
Oth
ers
BridgeLux
China
Mid
ea
(美的
照明
)
Lite
On
Lots companies are participating in LED luminaire globally
Many companies are vertically integrated from chip to luminaire system
Kic
hle
r
NV
C(雷
士)
Hem
ligh
ting
(華而
美)
Ya
min
g(上
海亞
明)
19 November 2010| Page 29
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Policies Drive the Worldwide LED Market
USA:
1. DOE “Next Generation Lighting Initiative” (NGLI) to
support the R&D of SSL
2. 50 million USD from 2007-2013
3. Total 350 million USD for R&D investment in SSL
4. Reach 219 lm/w, 1000 lm /1USD in 2020
(March 2010)
TW: 83 million USD investment
in LED for five years (2010-2015)
Source: LEDinside (October 2010)
China:
1. 12th Five-Year plan focus on green energy
2. Industry scale > 500 B RMB in 2015
3. LED Chip Self-sufficiency rate 70% in 2015.
4. 2-3 large scale LED chip companies in 2015.
5. 3-5 leading SSL application companies in 2015.
Japan: 2.90 billion USD
is requested for
promoting the LED
market
(June 2010)
Korea: 20 million
USD for LED(2011)
19 November 2010| Page 30
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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Thank You for Your Attention!
TrendForce/ LEDinside
http://www.ledinside.com
-----------------------------------------
Joanne Wu
Research Assistant
TrendForce/ LEDinside
http://www.ledinside.com
-----------------------------------------
儲于超 Roger Chu
Research Director