fred schmude stormwatch manager impactweather, inc. [email protected] fred specializes in...
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![Page 1: Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter](https://reader038.vdocuments.site/reader038/viewer/2022102900/5517bb9c5503461b658b45d5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected]
Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.
2012 Spring Weather OutlookMay Update
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ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.
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Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected]
Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.
2012 Spring Weather OutlookMay Update
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Spring Weather Outlook for 2012
•Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño risks and effects)
•Review of spring tornado and high wind reports
•Review of the April temperature & precipitation pattern
• May weekly and monthly forecast (find the most vulnerable severe risk areas) May, June and July projected flow pattern & T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas)
•Summer outlook, including a brief tropical outlook
•Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring
•Tropics Sneak Preview
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Warming WaterDeveloping El Niño?
PDO Cold Phase Colder
Water
SmallNegative
IOD
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Current(-0.1C)
El Niño
La Niña
~+1.3C...Moderate El Niño
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El Niño
La Niña
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Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development
Upper air outflow enhance upper-level
wind shear
Effects of Warming Water in Eastern Tropical Pacific
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Forecast ENSO Trends•Initiation of EL Niño by early summer
•Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013
•Likely to be moderate in intensity at about (+1.0 to +1.4C)
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REVIEWTornadoes, Temperature, Rainfall and Flow Pattern from January thru May 1, 2012
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Avera
ge Tr
end
2005
-201
1
Current #
Average
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for Apr-Jun, 2012
ElevatedSevere Risk
Area
BESTCHANCE
Mean Storm Track
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2011
2008
Projection~1500
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Proj
ectio
nCurrent
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MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL!+8 to +16F
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ABOVENORMAL!+3 to +6F
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Projected Temperature Outlook for April, 2012
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WARMER
WARMER
North America April Temperature Anomalies
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WETWET
WETWET
WET
DRY DRY
DRY
WET
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WET
WETWET
WET
WET
WET
DRIER
DRIER
DRIER
DRIER
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for April, 2012
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Lower Pressure
Lower Pressure
HigherPressure
HigherPressure
HigherPressure
April Mean Flow Pattern
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April Mean Flow Pattern/Temp Overlay
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FORECAST
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+4 to +8F
-3 to -6F
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Weather Trends for May 8th-14th, 2012
STORMY
UNSETTLED
NearNorma
l
NearNorma
l
NearNorma
l
+2 to +4F
+3 to +6F
-2 to -4F
HEAVY RAIN&
FLOODING RISK
-1 to -3F
NearNorma
l
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
Mostly
Dry
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Weather Trends for May 15th-21st, 2012
Warmer
ThanNorma
lWarm
er Than
Normal
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Cooler Than
Normal
Cooler Than
Normal
NearNorma
l
STORMY
UNSETTLED
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
Warm
er Than
Normal
NearNorma
l
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Projected Temperature Outlook for May, 2012
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for May, 2012
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H
H
HH
L
LL
L
Mean Storm
Track
WARMER
WARMER
COOLER
Enhanced SevereWeather Risk
Projected Flow Pattern For May-July, 2012
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Projected Temperature Outlook for May-Jul, 2012
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Enhanced SevereWeather Risk
Projected Precipitation Outlook for May-Jul, 2012
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Projected Temperature Outlook for July-Sept, 2012
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for July-Sept, 2012
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El Niño
COOLER WATER
•Monitor for Home Grown Storm Gulf/ W Car.Tropics
“Sneak Peek” For 2012
Higher WesterlyWind Shear Likely“Negative Factor”
“Another Negative Factor”
•Risk will be lower than normal for a TC strike•However, some very memorable TCs have occurred during +ENSO events •Preliminary estimates call for 10-5-2
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Abnormally Dry (yellow)Moderate Drought (tan)
Severe Drought (red)
Exceptional Drought (dark red)
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DROUGHT
DROUGHT
DROUGHT
WET SOIL
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• Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7• Seasonal outlook forecasting• Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification• Offshore/marine forecasting year-round• Customized weather websites• Direct consultation with a meteorologist• Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan ConsultingWebinar Questions:
[email protected] information(877) 792-3220
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