frankl second gen
TRANSCRIPT
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Sustainable Production of Second-Generation BiofuelsPotential and Perspectives in Major Economies and Developing Countries
LaunchBerlin, 9 February
Dr. Paolo Frankl
Head, Renewable Energy Division
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Acknowledgements
Thanks to:
Dr. Antonio Pflgerfor initiating and guiding this project
GTZ for financing and supporting this project on behalf of
the BMZ
Dr. Mike Enskat, Raya Khne, Dr. Thomas Breuer,
Thorben Kruse
Consultants and experts involved in the project German Biomass Research Centre (DBFZ)
Franziska Mller-Langer, Jens Giersdorf, Anastasios
Perimenis
Local consultants in the studied countries
Participants of the project workshop in February 2009
Reviewers
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Background ETP 2008
0
200
400
600
800
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2020 2035 2050
Mtoe
Exajoules
0
20
40
60
80
100
120140
160
180
200
2005 2020 2035 2050
Millionhectares
Biodiesel: BtL
Biodiesel: oil seed
Ethanol: cellulosic
Ethanol: cane
Ethanol: grain
Source: ETP 2008
Demand for bioenergy is increasing: 150 EJ in 2050 (IEA Blue Map
Scenario)
Biofuels demand: 29 EJ from 160 Mha of land
2nd-generation biofuels only from energy crops still competition
with food production / nature conservation
Use of residues could significantly reduce land demand
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Based on a global assessment and specific findings from eight
country profiles (Brazil, Cameroon, China, India, Mexico, South
Africa, Tanzania, Thailand)
Objectives of this study are to: Analyse the potential for second-generation biofuels from
agricultural and forestry residues
Identify required framework conditions and key barriers for the
new technology, in particular outside the OECD
Provide detailed information to policy maker and other stakeholder
to ensure a sustainable development of the new industry
Introduction
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Global bioenergy potentials vary widely (33-1 500 EJ)
Key factor: land availability
High bioenergy potentials through intensive agriculture(industrial cattle farming, increased yields)
This development is highly uncertain in developing countries
Many countries face growing demand for food and land (e.g. Thailand,
India, China)
agricultural sector dominated by smallholders and subsistence farmer(e.g. South Africa, Thailand, India, Cameroon)
Uncertainty in projected bioenergy potentials
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Current potential for second-generation biofuels from residues:
Currently, biofuels provide 1.7% of total transport fuel demand
2nd-generation biofuels from 10% of residues could produce two to
three times the current amount of biofuel
This is 4-6% ofcurrent transport fuel demand
Main resultsCurrent potential for second-generation biofuels from residues
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In 2030 crop and timber production increases:
Main resultsPotential for second-generation biofuels from residues in 2030
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Biofuels are projected to provide 9.3% of total transport fuel in 2030
Second-generation biofuels from 10% of global residues would be
sufficient to cover 45-60% of projected biofuel demand in 2030
This does not require additional agricultural / forestry land
Main resultsPotential for second-generation biofuels from residues in 2030
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Main results
Theoretical production costs for 2nd-generation biofuels in studied countries
(based on current opportunity costs for residues)
Source: Based on analysis presented in Transport, Energy and Co2, IEA, 2009
Current production costs would still be higher than the price of gasoline
Long-term projections see second-generation biofuel costs close to or
well below gasoline prices, depending on oil prices
Profitability increases with higher oil-prices
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Sustainability
General benefits:
Selling residues in general creates a win-win situation for farmer
Potential for job creation through transport of residues and biofuel
production
No additional land required
Basically no competition with food production
low risk of (indirect) landuse change related to possible over-
exploitation of residues
Sustainable production of second-generation biofuels requires careful
country-specific analysis and management: Assessment of specific biomass supply and conversion costs
Evaluation of impacts of residue utilisation on local agricultural markets
Including trade-offs through increasing demand for residues
Monitoring of nutrient-cycles and impact on soil productivity
Ensuring small-holder integration, e.g. through co-operatives
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Key messages
There is a considerable potential for second-generation biofuels
from residues 10% of residues could cover 5% of transport fuel
demand in 2030
Roughly two-third are located in non-OECD countries in Asia, Latin
America and Africa To mobilise it, intensive RD&D efforts in OECD countries and
emerging economies with sufficient capacities (e.g. Brazil, China,
India) are needed over the next 10-15 years
Developing countries first need to invest in agricultural production
and infrastructure to improve framework conditions
Second-generation biofuels as part of an integrated food and energy
strategy could then provide economical, social and environmental
benefits
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Key messages - 2
Specific issues for Developing Countries
Framework conditions to set up a 2nd generation biofuel industry not
currently sufficient
Poor infrastructure, lack of skilled labour, limited financial resources
Capacity building needs to start now for smooth introduction of 2nd
gen biofuels when they become technically available and
economically viable in developing countries
Can start through other uses of bioenergy as well
Enhanced cooperation will be key
More and better data needed from a wider set of countries