fpso outlook & trendsfpso forecast & trends –hull type 8 increasing number of newbuilds...
TRANSCRIPT
NOVOTEL LONDON WEST • LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM • 2-4 APRIL 2019
FPSO Outlook & Trends
David Boggs
Energy Maritime Associates
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
Industry Survey – Increased Optimism
2
Confidence Increasing:
o 23% Highly confident vs 10% last year
o 6% Somewhat pessimistic vs 15% last year
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
Industry Survey – Attractive growth regions
3
• Top 2 remain unchanged (Brazil, West Africa)
• South America leaps to 4th (from 9th) – Guyana projects and prospects
• US rises to 5th (from 8th) – New discoveries (Whale, Ballymore)
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
Industry Survey – Potential Bottlenecks
4
“obviously we’re going to have to grow our capacity significantly over the coming 2 or 3
years, assuming that the market materialize in the way that we mentioned.” - SBM CEO
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
Market Activity – FPSO Contractors
5
Busiest Contractors: SBM, Modec, Yinson (2-3 orders)
Most Idle Units: Teekay, BWO, Bluewater, Bumi Armada (2 each)
“the FPSO market ismore exciting than we have seen in a decade…
We are at a stage where there are more projects than there is available capacity in the supplier market.” - Teekay Offshore CEO
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
Available FPSOs – Rising Redeployment
6
1 redeployment so far in 2019: Allan. Which of the 25 available FPSOs are next? Dhirubhai 1: Option in place with Aker Energy for EPS in Ghana Berge Helene: BWO purchase of Maromba field in Brazil Petrojarl Varg: Pending finance from Alpha Petroleum for Cheviot UK OSX-1: Possible for Siccar Point’s Cambo UK
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
FPSO 5-year Forecast (2019-23)
Recovery expected to continue Low case: 8 units/yr
Mid case: 11-14 units/yr
High case: 15-17 units/yr
7
Petrobras key uncertainty 20-30% of Market
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
FPSO Forecast & Trends – Hull Type
8
Increasing number of newbuilds (~40%)
About 30% will be converted tankerso Trend to use younger hulls < 15-yrs old
More redeployments (~25%)o 25 FPSOs currently availableo Faster time to first oilo Flexibility on commercial terms
Hull Type 2000-2015 2016-2019
Change
New 49 (28%) 9 (45%) 17%
Conversion 98 (56%) 6 (30%) ↓26%
Redeploy 29 (16%) 5 (25%) 9%
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
FPSO Trends – Construction Yards
9
Region 2000-2015
2016-2019
Change
China 33 (19%) 10 (50%) 31%
Singapore 79 (45%) 10 (35%) ↓10%
Korea 25 (14%) 0 (0%) ↓14%
China Dominant• Conversion & Newbuilding
Korea Exits
Singapore steps up • Newbuilding and EPC
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
Summary
10
• FPSO Orders return to 2011-2014 levels
• Increased Optimism…Best FPSO Market in a decade?
• More Newbuildings & More Redeployments
• No major bottlenecks…For Now
© M C E D e e p w a t e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C
Energy Maritime Associates
11
FPS Reports since 1996
Customized Research
Consultancy
Market Intelligence
EMA Upcoming Events:
OTC | May 6-9 | Houston
SPE Offshore Europe | Sep 3-6 | Aberdeen
Contact EMA: [email protected]
The Source for Floating Production