Fourth Joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Opinion Surveys

EU-wide business survey in the financial service sector

Brussels, 12th October 2009

Extension of business surveys to the financial service sector • Importance of financial services sector for the development of the

overall economy

• EU-wide monthly survey among managers

• 10 European countries covered

Main Objectives

• Provide useful information enabling to evaluate the development of

the value-added and expectations of operators

• Pilot phase: period of evaluation, between April 2006 and March

2007

• Main Phase: April 2007 – March 2011

Context & Objectives

Survey Design & Methodology

A robust and homogeneous methodology across countries Guarantee representative results for the euro area and the EU as a whole Repeat the survey in the same way each month Obtain sufficient samples of completed interviews detailed analysis Ensure comparability of results over time

Population Senior managers in sectors 65, 66 ,67 (NACE) Countries: DE, ES, FR, LUX, IT, NL, UK, PL, HU and CZ

Sampling Recruitment of a panel of respondents: (initial panel, approx. 2,400 people) Telephone recruitment Source: business directory, updated regularly good approximation of the

Universe Objective: 300-600 completed interviews each month during the whole year

Key Methodological Components

Questionnaire Content

Standard questionnaire

Repeated every month

Topics: overall business situation, demand for services and

employment

Quarterly questions

Asked in April, July, October, November

Topics: operating income/expenses, profitability, capital expenditure, fees charged for the services and competitive position

Scale questions : increase / remain unchanged / decrease

Questionnaire translated into national languages

Respondent can choose the language of the questionnaire

CATI-Web technology

Panel: telephone recruitment

Survey process

STEP 1

E-mail invitation + link to online questionnaire

STEP 2

Reminder

Questionnaire completion

STEP 3

STEP 4

Sample sizes and response rate

372

310

473

359

413

448 444

618

537

444

506 496 486 478

400 400 400 400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Apr-

08

May-0

8

Jun-0

8

Jul-08

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oct-

08

Nov-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jan-0

9

Feb-0

9

Mar-

09

Apr-

09

May-0

9

Jun-0

9

Jul-09

Aug-0

9

Sep-0

9

April 2008 - September 2009

A response rate of 24% on average (min: 17% and max: 29%) is encouraging and in line with expectations

Non-response

From the moment of the recruitment and the actual invitation, people may have change their minds

Some people may not have time to access the questionnaire during the fieldwork period

Concerns about confidentiality and publication of the results

In some cases, invitation e-mails are blocked by the company’s firewall

Operators not motivated to respond to several waves

Crisis: Increasing mobility of operators

Reluctance to give out information about company

Reasons Measures

Letter signed by DG ECFIN explaining the scope of the survey

Regular contacts by phone or e-mail, in order to:

Some people were sent in advance the questionnaire in Word format, in order to:

Reassure them about the content of questions

Get agreement of their hierarchy

Prospect of having access to the survey results

Ask referral to panellist who wants to drop off

Results: monthly questions

Overall business situation

24

33 32

27 28

2018 18

1512 12

1719

2226

23

29

5451

46

52

46 4745 45 44

47 48 4750

4751

53

2422 22

20 20

3335

37

44

28 27 26

1822

5354

41

3435

40

16

Apr-

08

May-

08

Jun-0

8

Jul-0

8

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oct

-08

Nov-

08

Dec-

08

Jan-0

9

Feb-0

9

Mar-

09

Apr-

09

May-

09

Jun-0

9

Jul-0

9

Aug-0

9

Sep-0

9

Improved Remained unchanged Deteriorated

TOTAL Q1 - How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? It has ...

17

107 8

-18-15

-6

-1-3

11

-22

-13

-32 -29

-25

-17-19

Demand for the company’s services

26

3135

38

28 29

18

2320

16 15 15

2117

24 2528

50 51

45

55

44

51

4044 43

45

51

46

5551 51

55

2521 20 19

17

2731

3741

2825 24

18

26

44

53

40

333436

18

Ap

r-0

8

May-

08

Jun

-08

Jul-

08

Au

g-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Oct

-08

Nov-

08

Dec-

08

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9

Mar-

09

Ap

r-0

9

May-

09

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Increased Remained unchanged Decreased

TOTAL Q2 - How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 3 months? It has ...

1315

19

11

-19

-12 -11

-11

10

15

2

-25-25

-16

-13-14

Expectations in terms of demand for company’s services

31

3936

31

36 36

31

1922

17

2224

27 2729

24

3937

55

48 49 48 49 50

39

4845

47

5349

57 58 5759

50

55

13 1315

21

15 14

3033 34

36

2528

16 15 1417

117

Apr-

08

May-0

8

Jun-0

8

Jul-08

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oct-

08

Nov-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jan-0

9

Feb-0

9

Mar-

09

Apr-

09

May-0

9

Jun-0

9

Jul-09

Aug-0

9

Sep-0

9

Increase Remain unchanged Decrease

TOTAL Q3 - How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 3 months?

It will ...

21

10

21 22

11 1215

7

2830

18

26

1

-3-4

-19

-14 -12

Employment in the financial service sector

18

24

20

25 26

1614 13 14

10

16 1613

1517 16

13

6669 69

67

74

67

73

69 68

6264

7068 67 68 69

1311 11

8 710

19

14

2118

16 161821

71

66

7

1720

17

22

Ap

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Jun

-08

Jul-

08

Au

g-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Oct

-08

No

v-0

8

De

c-0

8

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Increased Remained unchanged Decreased

TOTALQ4 - How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 3 months? It has ...

17

9

1719

-4 -4 -3

1 0

-5-1

-5 -3-6

-11

678

Expectations in terms of employment

22

2623

18 1715

13 12 11 12 12 1210

16 16 15 16

72

67 66

7270

73

6967

7169

71

77

71 70 7173

710 11

911

1614

1917

1315 15

11

21

73

68

19

13

17

22

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Jun

-08

Jul-

08

Au

g-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Oct

-08

No

v-0

8

De

c-0

8

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Increase Remain unchanged Decrease

TOTALQ5 - How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will ...

19

129

6

-5-3

31 0

5

-7

-1

-11-7

-5

-1

1214

Conclusions

Coherence/stability of the survey results:

Signs of quality of the sampling design

The questionnaire do not seem to pose any problem of misinterpretation/misunderstanding

Sensitive indicator

Encouraging response rate in line with expectations

For the next waves: continue the close monitoring of the fieldwork and anticipate any problem that might cause a decrease in response rate (e.g. lower motivation of respondents due to the participation to several survey waves)

Thank you for your kind attention

IPSOS Belgium

Head Office: Kroonlaan 159-164

1050 Brussels – Belgium

Operation Office: Waterloo Business Park

Drève Richelle 161, bât. J

1410 Waterloo

Phone 32-2-642.47.11

Fax 32-2-648.34.08

E-mail info@ipsos.be