founding events that had and continue to …...dhabi (adgas) turkey begins lng imports rasgas...
TRANSCRIPT
CAMEL plant (Algeria) starts up with the first deliveries of LNG to Britain’s Canvey Island LNG Terminal
0.1 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.7 6.1 10.6 24.7 22.8 34.7 37.9 41.6 44.8 47.8 53.4 59.5 65.1 82.3 84.8 92.2 101.5 106.4 111.6 125.1 131.8 143.3 158.8 172.3 171.9 181.3 220.8 237.3 238 238 . . .
Discovery of North Sea Gas
Deliveries of CAMEL LNG to France begin
Start of LNG exports from Kenai in Alaska to Japan
Start of LNG exports from Brunei to Japan
Libya begins to export LNG to Spain and Italy
First US LNG importing terminal in Everett, MA, USA
First crude oil price shock - Brunei starts renegotiations for first crude oil indexed LNG contract
Gas Strategies begins; several founders of the LNG business in its ranks, its LNG understanding rooted in the foundations of the industry
Qatargas 2: First to anchor 100% of supply to UK NBP traded hub
Atlantic LNG Trains 2 & 3 and Nigerian LNG Trains 4 & 5 see sales to aggregators
Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge Deepwater Port opened proving Floating LNG regas
Excelerate Teesside Gas Port opens era of dockside LNG FSRU use
Introduction of the 14.85% indexation to crude oil prices
South Korean market opens with LNG from Arun
LNG gets delivered from Indonesia to Boston - world’s longest haul and US’ only import in 1986
MARKET BASED CRUDE OIL PRICE <$10/BBL CRASHES BUT OGSP STAYS ABOVE $20/BBL
OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT SHARE PRICES (OGSP)ABANDONED
Indonesian and Algerian expansions
Belgium begins LNG imports
Start of LNG exports from Malaysia (Satu) to Japan
Indonesian ‘Super deals’ - sales of string of cargoes - first of its kind, settles ‘overpayment mountain’
Abu Dhabi’s Adgas project introduces ‘S’-Curve type formulae in long term contracts
Start of LNG exports from North West Shelf (Australia) to Japan
OIL PRICE CRASH
WORLD STOCK MARKET CRASH
BERLIN WALL FALLS
US MARINES DISPATCHED TO VIETNAM
NEIL ARMSTRONG BECOMES THE FIRST MAN ON THE MOON
VIETNAM WAR ENDS IN 1975
ARGENTINA INVADES THE FALKLAND ISLANDS
IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT
“MarAd saga” - Nigeria LNG buys spare vessels on the market
Taiwan LNG market opens - Yungan - with initial supplies from Indonesia
UK stops importing LNG
Henry Hub futures contract first available on Nymex
Spot LNG delivered from NWS, Australia to Spain
Qatar QGPC and Mobil set up JV Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Company
US gas bubble - Algerian LNG sales stop
Start of LNG exports from Indonesia (Arun) to Japan
Indonesia: The birth of limited-recourse LNG financing
Start of LNG exports to Japan from Indonesia (Bontang), and Abu Dhabi (Adgas)
Turkey begins LNG imports
RasGas launches world’s first all Korean fleet for FOB sales anchored to Korean market
BG acquires 100% capacity at Lake Charles
Price out of range or POR negotiations: Crude oil price levels “out of range” bringing into play the “meet and discuss” provisions of the contracts
Start of LNG exports from Atlantic LNG (Trinidad) just ahead of start up of RasGas
Nigeria LNG start up
Annual LNG trade exceeds 100 mtpa
Greece imports first LNG
China signs first deals with North West Shelf and Tangguh
Portugal first LNG imports
UK resumes LNG imports
First import of LNG to UK in 20 years as North Sea production declines
Chinese LNG market opens - Guangdong I
Qatar becomes number 1 LNG exporter in the world
LNG imports to USA highest ever at 3.1Bcf/d.Compared to 2006 average of 1.6Bcf/d
Pipeline gas exports to Europe from Russia distrupted due to dispute with Ukraine
Middle Eastern LNG market opens - Kuwait GasPort
Chile imports first LNG
Australia overtakes Qatar as world’s largest LNG producer
First FLNG production begins
Shale gas boom in the US starts
Cheniere signs first US Gulf Coast export deals with BG with indexation to Henry Hub prices
SEGAS LNG plant in Egypt is mothballed
Qatar capacity reaches 77 mtpa
Nigeria LNG Train 5 starts up
JULY: OIL AT $147/BBLDECEMBER: OIL AT $35/BBL
First US re-export from Sabine Pass
Annual LNG trade exceeds 220mtpa
Israel, Singapore and Malaysia become LNG importers
Ice-bound Yamal LNG takes FID
US lower-48 LNG exports begin
CSG-LNG projects begin production in Queensland
India begins LNG imports
Atlantic LNG negotiates first destination flexible contract
UK traded gas hub, NBP gas contract first available on IPE
Qatar enters the LNG world, with equity lifting on LNG volumes
KYOTO AGREEMENT PROPOSES TO LIMIT GREENHOUSE GASES
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS
EURO LAUNCHED
HURRICANE KATRINA
END OF THE IRAN/IRAQ WAR
1962-64 1965 1969 1970-1971 1972 1973 1974-77 1978-80 1981-1982 1983 - 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 - 1993 1994 - 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 THE FUTURE
EVENTS THAT HAD AND CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFIC ANT IMPACT ON THE SHAPE OF THE GLOBAL LNG TRADE
Industry key events
Oil price($/bbl)
LNG trade(mtpa)
LNG Projects and market
openings
Macro - economic and other
external factors
FOUNDING YEAR
CERN MAKES WORLD WIDE WEB PUBLIC OR FREELY USABLE
ENRON BANKRUPT
HENRY HUB REACHES $10/MMBTU IN WINTER
EXXON ACQUIRES MOBIL FOR $75.4 BILLION
BP ACQUIRES AMOCO FOR $110 BILLION
THE GREAT EAST JAPAN (FUKUSHIMA) EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
GREAT RECESSION: GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTRACTS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WWII
HENRY HUB DROPS TO BELOW $2/MMBTU
CHINA OVERTAKES US AS WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMY
1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 3.5 12.5 22.9 35.9 28.8 14.3 18.3 14.9 18.2 23.7 18.8 15.8 19.1 12.7 17.9 28.4 24.5 25 28.8 38.2 54.4 65.1 72.5 97 61.5 79.5 111.3 111.6 108.6 . . .
700
1969
MTPA
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PLANT START UP
TERMINAL START UP
LANT START UP
ERMINAL START UPTE
PL9 71 3 5 77 9 81 3 5 7 9 91 3 5 7 9 01 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 77 7 9 5 7 9
Gas Strategies has LNG understanding in its DNA: rooted in the foundations of the industry, nurtured in the challenges of its evolution over the last 28 years, enriched by the visions of its future.
When our company launched its first activities in 1986, the LNG industry was facing a crisis of confidence as the oil price crashed, the long term future of Asian LNG projects was being questioned and many thought the recently launched Australian North West Shelf project would be the “last of the century” to be developed.
How wrong they were.
The LNG industry immediately rebounded, new contracting arrangements were quickly developed (including the first “S-curve” pricing formula), JCC became the price index of choice in Asia, short term cargo deals were born, the Korean market opened and steps were taken
to revive an LNG project in Nigeria and revamp the Algerian LNG plants. The North West Shelf project started up in 1989 and immediately began planning expansion.
By the mid-1990s development activity was underway in Qatar, Oman and Trinidad & Tobago as well as Nigeria and Algeria and the decade closed with four new supply countries and new markets opening in Taiwan and Turkey.
The new millennium saw this activity increase at an exponential rate with the LNG industry growing at an annual 7.8% to reach 240 mtpa in world trade in 2011. Since then the LNG industry has plateaued – with supply side constraints,
and the coincidence of start-up timing leading to a temporary hiatus on market growth. However, new projects in Australia will see a reversal of that trend with seven new projects under construction and entering the market from 2015.
Beyond that, all eyes turn to North America where there is the potential for a similar wave of new supply. US LNG also represents a significant shift in LNG project business model, with facilities operated on a pure tolling basis and capacity holders responsible for sourcing their own gas and marketing their own LNG.
Gas Strategies is proud to have been closely involved in the constant process of change,
revivals of markets and basins, new business models and entry of new players and practices in the industry over the last 28 years. We have provided commercial advice to clients from the Pacific to the Atlantic, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas North and South with some of our major achievements being centred on breakthrough developments. As we applied and developed our LNG understanding we were with the creators or founders of many breakthrough developments such as Indonesia’s first contract extensions, Atlantic LNG of Trinidad & Tobago, a project dismissed as impossible by its detractors right up to FID; RasGas, the first project to be launched solely on Korean market demand with an all Korean fleet and the first to be bond-financed.
Among others were Qatargas II, the only project to be developed from field to receiving terminal as one project and the first to be anchored on traded market gas pricing, Teesside GasPort the first of many applications of dockside floating regas (FSRU), both the first receiving terminal project and the first supply project in South America, the recent wave of new projects in Australia and the start-up of US Gulf coast exports. And we see a bright and ever changing future for LNG in the next 50 years.
Peter Thompson [email protected] +44 (0) 20 7332 9947 www.gasstrategies.com
© CO
LIN CO
UTTS
YEARS OF CHANGE
Peter ThompsonGas Strategies, 10 St Bride Street, London EC4A 4AD [email protected]+44 (0) 20 7332 9947
www.gasstrategies.com © Gas Strategies 2014
LNG LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS