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ForumonUnderstandingtheAleppoCrisis
AhmadEl-MuhammadyInternationalIslamicUniversityMalaysia
3February2017Organizedby:
InstituteofAdvancedIslamicStudies(IAIS),KualaLumpur,Malaysia
Syria:GeographyandPolitics
الجمھوریة العربیة السوریة
SyrianArabRepublicArea:185,180km2Population:17,064million(estimate2014)Multi-ethnicArab90.3%,Kurdish,Armenian,andother9.7%
Multi-religiousMuslim87%(official;includesSunni74%andAlawi,Ismaili,andShia13%),Christian10%(includesOrthodox,Uniate,andNestorian),Druze3%,Jewish(fewremaininginDamascusandAleppo)
Unitarystate
• Syriaisaunitarystate,butforadministrativepurposes,itisdividedinto14governorates(muhafazat/muhafazah)1. AlHasakah2. AlLadhiqiyah (Latakia)3. AlQunaytirah4. Ar Raqqah5. AsSuwayda’6. Dar'a7. Dayr az Zawr8. Dimashq (Damascus)
Unitarystate
9. Halab (Aleppo)10. Hamah11. Hims (Homs)12. Idlib13. RifDimashq (DamascusCountryside)14. Tartus
• Thegovenorates aredividedinto60distructs (manatiq),whicharefuther dividedintosubdistrict (nawahi/nahia)• Thenawahi containvillages,whicharethesmallestadministrativeunits.
Aleppo3.562millionDAMASCUS(capital)2.566millionHims (Homs)1.641millionHamah1.237millionLattakia 781,000
Fromgraffitionthewalltocivilwar
”it’syourturn,Doctor”
Thedetentionandprotest
Thereportof15schoolchildrenweredetainedandtorturedsurfaced.
Ledtomassiveprotest
Governmentrespondedviolentlyledtohundreddeaths.
Localuprisings
Regionalfactors
• ArabSpringsintheregionbroughtdownregimesinTunisia,Egypt,andLibya,anditspreadacrosstheregion.
• Al-QaedainIraq• CreationofJabhah al-Nusrah
• Sectarian• SunniversusSyiah
Foreignintervention
• Interventionofforeignpowers• Russia• Iran• Hezbollah• U.S.• Gulfstates
• Basyar Assad’sview:interventionintoasovereignnation,domesticaffairsoftheSyrians.Itisdomesticproblem.
• Iran’sview:dutytoprotectSyriangovernmentinthespiritoffaith,expansionofsphereofinfluence.
• Russia’sview:traditionalallyofSyria,theneedtoprotectclientstatefromfallingintoextremistgroupandpro-USgovernment.Russiaisanemergingpower.
• US’view:concernoftheriseofextremistgroupinSyriaandregion.Assadneedstogo.Butnodirectintervention,can’taffordtorepeatIraqandAfghanistan;employs“ContainmentStrategy”
• GulfStates:concernsoftheexpansionofIran’sinfluenceintheregion.FundingtheSunnigroupstofight.
• Insurgents’views:• IslamicStateofIraqandSyria(ISIS):protectingSunniinSyria,revengeagainstSyiah government,establish“trueIslamicState”
• Jabhah al-Nusra:al-Qaedaproxy.ProtectingSunni.Islamicstate.
• FreeSyrianArmy:overthrowtheregime.ConsideredbyUSasmoderate.
• QudsForce-Qasemm Soleimani:sectarianandpoliticalmotives.
• CivilwarinSyriaisnotastraightforwardcaseofconflictAversusB.• Multipleactors• Conflictinginterests• Complexfactors:cocktailsofpolitical,sectarian,religious,historicalelements.• Uniqueterrainsandlocality
Syria:theatreforgeopoliticalgame
• Veryunfortunatesituation.• Syriabecomethetheatreforgeopoliticalgameoftheregionalandworldpowers.• OrdinarySyriansarethebiggestvictims.• Caseinpoint:Aleppo.
WhereisAleppo?
Urbanwarfare
• CivilwarinAleppoisexampleofurbanwarfare(UW)• combatconductedin urban areassuchastownsandcities
• Urbanwarfareisfoughtdifferentlyfromtheopenfight(conventionalwarfare)atboththeoperationalandtacticallevel.• Complicatingfactorsin urbanwarfare includethepresenceofciviliansandthecomplexityofthe urban terrain.
ActorsonthegroundinAleppoSyriangovernment Rebels Kurdishforces
SyrianArabRepublic(Syrian Army)+RussianandIran
Alliedforces:-Liwa al-Quds-Hezbollah-PopularMobilizationForces-Liwa’Fatemiyoun-Liwa’Zaynabiyoun-BaathBridget-SyrianSocialNationalistParty(SSNP)-SyrianResistence
Coalitions:-FatahHalab-Jaysh Halab-ArmyofConquest-Ansar al-Shariah-FreeSyrianArmy
Units(16units)-Ahrar al-Sham-Jaysh al-Sham-FreeIdlib Army-Al-Tauhid Bridget-Fastaqim Union-Harat Nour al-Dinal-Zinki-ArmyofMujahiddin-SyrianTurksman Bridget-Liwa’al-Haqq-Al-Nusra Front-Jaysh al0Muhajirinwal Ansar-Harakat Fajr al-Shamal-Islamiyyah-Harakat Shamal-Islamiyah-TurkistanIslamicPartyinSyria
-People’sProtectionUnit(YPG)-Women’sProtectionUnit(YPJ)-ArmyofRevolutionaries
DefeatingenemiesinUWsettings
• Sendinggrouptroopsisrisky.• Grouptroopsexposedtoboobytraps,sniper,ambush,IEDattacks,etc.• Highcasualties,lesseffective.
• Aerialbombing• Surgicalstrike• Pulverizestrategy(BattleofGrozny,BattleofStalinigrad)
• Morethan300,000peoplehavebeenkilledand11millionothersdisplacedinalmostsixyearsofconflict.
• Theabovestrategycausedmassiveciviliancasualties.
Conclusion
• Politicalinterestatthecoreofstate’sforeignpolicy• Highcostofhumanlifeanddestructionofinfrastructure• SpillovereffectoftheconflictinSyriaandISIS• Theresidualeffectsoftheconflict:longtermeffects
Becarefulwhenyoufightamonster,youmayendupbeingoneofthem
-F.Nietzsche