forex market insight 06 july 2011
TRANSCRIPT
8/6/2019 Forex Market Insight 06 July 2011
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Market Insights 6 July 2011
Risk sees reversal as Portugal downgraded to ‘junk’ by Moody’s
US equities weaker after lower-than-expected result from factory orders
AUD trades back below 1.0700 after RBA keeps rates on hold
Gold and oil surge higher as both break above key resistance levels
Dow drifts lower to close 0.1% downEurope in focus tonight with Eurozone GDP and German factory orders due this evening
Headlines
AUD/USD
XAU/USD
Resistance
1.0780
Support
1.0600Market Sentiment
Bearish
Some of the heat has come out of the Aussie over the last 24 hours after the RBA doused expectations of two further ratehikes this year. This could see the Aussie come back to test support at 1.0600. After seeing a move back to 1.0600, traderscould then be looking to a bounce from support.
Gold popped higher overnight after US factory orders came in below expectations. For gold, the driver remains the outlookfor further stimulus from the US government, so any disappointing news on US economic growth is likely to see gold pushedhigher. That said, the technical outlook is still bearish, so trader will be looking at the overnight move as a potential entry for
Resistance
1515
Support
1480Market Sentiment
Bearish
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EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY is still trapped in its trading range, with last night’s move higher unable to breach 81.25 resistance. From heretrader will be looking for a move back to support at 80.40/60 before rebuilding long positions.
The pound remains trapped by downward pressure, but the most recent price action is signaling the potential for an upsidebreak. Overnight, we saw the pound break above resistance at 1.6100, but yet again the sellers pushed the pair lower. Theupward trending lower support line suggests bullish pressure is rising, and a break of 1.6140 could see a sharp move higher.
The Euro has failed to sustain the move above 1.4530 and the sellers have driven the pair back into the symmetrical trianglpattern. This changes the picture to bearish and setups up a potential move back to 1.4200. In the near term, initial support iseen at 1.4340.
Resistance
1.4530
Support
1.4200Market Sentiment
Bearish
Resistance
1.6140
Support
1.6000Market Sentiment
Rangebound
Resistance
81.25
Support
80.40/60Market Sentiment
Bullish
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SILVER
USD/CHF
GBP/JPY
A recent bout of yen weakness has seen the GBP/JPY push higher and break above resistance at 130.00. As long as thGBP/JPY holds above 130.00, traders will be looking for further gains, however, this pair remains in a strong downtrend aany move back below 130.00 is likely to see the downtrend continue.
The USD/CHF has moved lower from the top of the trading range and the market now expects a move back to support around83.30. The USD/CHF remains dominated by the bears and traders will be looking to follow the path of least resistance lower.
Silver surged higher along with gold and oil overnight, bringing the precious metal back to resistance at 35.50. We’re at crucial juncture now, with any break above 35.50/36.00 bullish, but if silver can’t break higher, the market will be looking for amove back to support at 33.30.
Resistance
35.50
Support
33.30Market Sentiment
Bearish
Resistance
85.50
Support
83.30Market Sentiment
Bearish
Resistance
130.80
Support
130.00Market Sentiment
Bullish
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AUD/JPY
OIL
Economic Calendar
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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last
» GBP: Halifax HPI m/m 0.1% 0.1% » CAD: Building Permits m/m 5.1% -21.1%
» EUR: Final GDP q/q 0.8% 0.8% » USD: ISM Non Manuf PMI 53.9 54.6
» EUR: German Factory Orders -0.5% 2.8% » » » » » »
The crude market has pushed higher overnight in line with the move higher in gold and silver. This changes the market’s
view on crude to more bullish and traders will be looking for any move back to 95.80 as an opportunity to take new longpositions.
The Aussie-yen has held relatively steady after yesterday’s decision to hold interest rates steady and this can be seen asbullish for this pair. Support is seen at 86.00/40 and any move back into this zone is likely to be seen as a buyingopportunity.
Resistance
97.50Support
95.80Market Sentiment
Bullish
Resistance
87.60/88.00Support
86.00/40Market Sentiment
Bullish