forest resources - european commission...forest residues c+nc, th forest residues c+nc, hi forest...
TRANSCRIPT
How much
wood
can we
take
and what
should
we
use it
for?
Forest resources
-
Udo Mantau
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
1.
Total Balance 2010 –
dimensions
2.
Methodological comments
3.
EUwood
–
development of woody biomass
4.
Energy consumption in 2030 80% or 20%
Content
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 2
I will NOT
… tell you what you should do! “…
what should we use it for?”
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 3
To find the right tool in order to reach a target you need an expert. To take a decision on targets is a political act.
A scientist may of course take a position for a target, but that is a political decision and not a scientific conclusion.
He should strictly seperate his conclusions from his values. That does not mean, that he should not have values, but to mix them would destroy the conclusions as well as the values.
Max Weber (1864-1920)
picture from wikipedia
I will NOT
… just talk about FOREST resources –
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 4
How much wood we can use depends on the way we are using all woody biomass. There are strong relations between the use of
forest biomass and other woody biomass.
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
1 Targets
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 5
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
1.
Transparency for the markets of wood resources for Europe (EU27) and the individual countries. Thereby accomplish the new areas of
energy use and other woody biomass resources.
2.
Develop scenarios for each of the sectors 2010 to 2030 in line with the following specifications. In this context make a „gap projection“
for the expected surplus or deficit of woody biomass in Europe.
1 Dimensions
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 6
Europe (EU27) 2010 –
sector dimensions (medium mobil. -
A1)
Dimensions of the wood resource market 2010
Resource potential Potential demand
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
Other woody biomass Energy uses
Forest woody biomass Material uses717 M m³
331 M odt
5.973 PJ
308 M m³ 139 M odt
2.499 PJ
458 M m³ 229 M odt
3.994 PJ
367 M m³ 173 M odt
3.017 PJ
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
E27 potential and demand in M m³ medium mobilisation
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 7
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
Potential in M m³ 2010 % 2010 % Demand in M m³
Stemwood C, ME 362 35,3 196 23,8 Sawmill industry
Stemwood NC, ME 182 17,7 11 1,3 Veneer plywood industry
Forest residues, ME 118 11,5 143 17,3 Pulp industry
Bark, ME 55 5,4 92 11,2 Panel industry
Landscape c.w. (USE) ME 59 5,8 15 1,8 Other material uses
Short rotation plantation - 21 2,5 Producer of solid wood fuelsSawmill by products 87 8,5 86 10,4 Forest sector internal useOther industrial residues 30 2,9 83 10,1 Biomass power plantsBlack liquor 60 5,8 23 2,8 Households (pellets)Solid wood fuels 21 2,0 155 18,8 Households (other)Post consumer wood 52 5,1 0 0,0 Liquid biofuelsTotal 1.026 100 825 100 Total
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
1 Dimensions
2 Methods -
scenarios
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 8
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
source use[mio. m³] [mio. m³]
stemwood
EFISCENEFSOS
Conversion factors and
WRB
Sawmill industry
forest residues Panel industry
bark Pulp industry
other material uses
Woody biom. outside for. Literature &modellingpost consumer wood
EU RES2020 calc.enquiries
Wood based fuel industry
sawmill by productsEFSOS &
conv. factors
wood industry internal use
other industrial residues biomass power plants
black liquor household use
liquid biofuels
Processed wood fuel Energy use
source use[mio. m³] [mio. m³]
stemwood
EFISCENEFSOS
Conversion factors and
WRB
Sawmill industry
forest residues Panel industry
bark Pulp industry
other material uses
Woody biom. outside for. Literature &modellingpost consumer wood
EU RES2020 calc.enquiries
Wood based fuel industry
sawmill by productsEFSOS &
conv. factors
wood industry internal use
other industrial residues biomass power plants
black liquor household use
liquid biofuels
Processed wood fuel Energy use
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
2 Methods -
Cascade uses and cascade factors
01.06.2011 University of Hamburg | Udo Mantau 9
∑
total sources in example: 1.54
154 ∑
total uses
Sources Uses[ M m³] [ M m³]
Stemwood, coniferous C 100 100 Sawmill industry
Stemwood, non-coniferous
NC 20 Panel industry
Forest residues C+NC 10 Pulp industry
Bark Other physical utilisation
Landscape care wood 10 Wood fuel industry
5 Power and heat
Sawmill by-products 40 4 Industrial internal
Other industrial wood residues 5 Private households
Black liquor 4 Undifferentiated energy use
Solid wood fuels 10
Post-consumer woodCascade factor of Wood Resource balance
for Europe on primary biomass: 1.53
Wood resource balance –
a total resource assessment methodology
2 Methods -
Wood flow analysis for a single resource (forest roundwood)
01.06.2011 University of Hamburg | Udo Mantau 10
Source: MANTAU Presentation in Geneva UNECE working group March 2008
Energy plants > 1MW0.840 1.2%
Energy plants < 1MW3.463 4.9%
households14.214 20.3%
Recorded availability (RA)56.946 77.8%
Total availability (TA)73.204 100.0%
Unrecorded availability (UA)16.258 22.2%
Change in Stock (CiS)-0.036 0.0%
Import (Im)2.820 3.9%
Export (Ex)6.070 8.3%
Calc. domestic availability (CDA)69.990 100.0%
Pulp industry6.184 8.8%
Panel industry7.470 10.7%
Sawmill industry37.234 53.2%
Other material uses *)0.585 0.8%
Other energy uses0.000 0.0%
TA = CDA + (Ex –
Im) + ΔCiSUA = TA
-
RAConsumption (CDA) = (RA + UA) + (Im –
Ex) + ΔCiS where (RA = production when UA = 0)
Wood resource balance –
a total resource assessment methodology
E27 potential and demand in M m³ medium mobilisation
3 Developments -
sectors
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 11
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
in M m³
forest
other wood
material
energy
201020202030
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
3 Developments –
sensitivity of forestry potential
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 12
Source: Verkerk, H.; Lindner, M.; Anttila, P. & Asikainen, A. 2010: The realistic supply of biomass from forests. pp 56-79. in: EUwood -
Final report. Hamburg/Germany, June 2010. 160 p.
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
01.06.2011 13Realisable biomass potential from forests
3. Developments -
constraints on biomass supply from forests applied in EUwood
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
environmental
technical
ownership size
Economic contraints –
in the sense of:How much wood will be mobilized
at given cost/price relation in a specific year
were NOT calculated.
Source: Photos from Verkerk, H.; EUwood presentation
01.06.2011 14Realisable biomass potential from forests
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
in M m³
forest residues C+NC, TH forest residues C+NC, HIforest residues C+NC, ME forest residues C+NC, LO
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
3. Developments -
Constraints are most relevant for forest residues
E27 potential and demand in M m³
medium mobilisation
3 Developments –
scenario driven
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 15
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
Potential in M m³ 2010 2030 2010 2030 Demand in M m³
Stemwood C, ME 362 356 196 247 Sawmill industry
Stemwood NC, ME 182 181 11 17 Veneer plywood industry
Forest residues, ME 118 120 143 200 Pulp industry
Bark, ME 55 52 92 136 Panel industry
Landscape c.w. (USE) ME 59 74 15 20 Other material uses
Short rotation plantation - - 21 54 Producer of solid wood fuelsSawmill by products 87 108 86 114 Forest sector internal useOther industrial residues 30 42 83 377 Biomass power plantsBlack liquor 60 85 23 82 Households (pellets)Solid wood fuels 21 54 155 151 Households (other)Post consumer wood 52 67 0 29 Liquid biofuelsTotal 1.026 1.139 825 1.427 Total
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
EU27 - total woody biomass demand and potential with low, medium and high mobilisation scenario
3 Developments -
total woody biomass scenarios
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 16
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
3 Developments -
sensitivity annual difference with base scenario
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 17
Source: Steierer, F. 2010: Energy use. pp 43-55. in: EUwood -
Final report. Hamburg/Germany, June 2010. 160 p.
Assumption (base scenario)
Possible variation Effect on EU 27 wood demand [million m³
2020 2030
Member states meet the energy efficiency targets (20%)
Member states miss these targets and energy efficiency remains at 2010 level
+ 85 + 130
Wood energy contributes 40% to energy from renewable sources
Wood energy accounts for the same share in energy from renewables as in 2010 (50%)
+ 120 + 167
Others RES develop faster than anticipated and wood energy decreases to 37,5% of RES
- 47 - 63
Constant energy yield of net calorific value / combustion efficiency
Each 1% decrease + 7.5
Each 1% increase - 7.5
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
Why did you calculate 400 M m³
deficit for 2020 in 2007 and only 100 M m³
in 2010?
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 18
Source: Mantau, Steierer, Hetsch, Prins (2007): Wood resource availability and demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2020
Combined wooduse [mio m³]
Supply residuesSupply forest Material use EFSOS Energy goal 75% Energy goal 100%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2020
Calculated future wood supply [mio m³]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2020
Calculated material use [EFSOS]
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
E27 – material and energy wood consumption in 2020 in M m³
4 Final comments –
regional distribution
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE GB
1st. bar material use
2nd. bar energy use
in M m³
Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –
team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;
JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
What does WRB currently offer?A framework for all woody biomass and the possibilityto calculate many key numbers for a better understandingof woody biomass and wood consumption, with a complex structure of wood flows
Interpretation of resultsThe different scenarios and sensitivity studies offer a variety of future development paths. Different choices lead to different results which in turn leads to more transparency.
What is the main disadvantage?Only few empirical studies have been carried out in European countries. Monitoring activities (empirical studies) on capacities and resource mix as well as on distribution to end use sectors are missing to a large extent.
4 Final comments –
on Wood Resource Balance
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 20
Wood resource balance –
How much can we use?
01.06.2011 21UNIVERSITÄT HAMBURG | Udo Mantau, Ulrike Saal
Wood consumptions for other material uses … a story,
just at the beginning
WPC –
wood plastic components
fibre
Wood resource balance –
How much will THEY use?
01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 22
Future ?
The sameold story
LikeA 100 years
ago
Future ?