forest-based bioeconomy: research in rtuforest-based bioeconomy: research in rtu 2 bioresource use...

39
1 Dagnija Blumberga 09.03.2017. Riga Technical university Institute of Energy Systems and Environment Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU

Upload: others

Post on 17-Aug-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1

Dagnija Blumberga

09.03.2017.

Riga Technical university

Institute of Energy Systems and Environment

Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU

Page 2: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

22

Bioresource use pyramid

New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and

economically valid.

New ecologically valid product

New economically valid product

New product

Extraction of energy sources

Combustion

Waste disposal

AD

DE

D V

AL

UE

MA

CR

OE

CO

NO

MIC

DE

VE

LO

PM

EN

T

Page 3: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

33

• Scientific literature research

• Surveys resultsInformation collection and handling

• Criteria selection and determination of weights (importance)

• Product selectionInnovative products multi-criteria

analysis

• Potential size of the market

• Innovative product’s priceMarket sales analysis

• Determination of product’s effect on climate and environmentEco-design analysis of three innovative products

• System dynamics model for determination of product’s added value and determination of organizations profit in time

System dynamics model – economic analysis of three innovative products

• Challenges and possibilities

• Questions for further researchRecommendations and conclusions

Methods used in the study

Rīgas Tehniskā universitāte

Page 4: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

44

Sources of information

Information given by involved scientific institutions

Scientific publications and studies

Scientific literature

Patent database (Espacenet)

Organizations experience

Statistical databases

Other publically available, trustworthy information

Page 5: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

55

Wood resources available for forestry (LSF data)

Unprocessed

wood for export:

– paper wood

1,6 mil. m3;

– woodchips

and firewood

1,4 mil. m3.

Page 6: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

6

Multi-criteria analysis

Page 7: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

77

Power industry

1. Butanol

2. Biodiesel

3. Bioethanol

4. Bio-oil

Textile industry

5. Ioncell-F

6. Lyocell

7. Viscose

Food production industry

8. Vanillin, lignin, ethanol un cellulose

9. Fish food additive from microorganism

proteins

10. Bird and animal food from pine and

fir needles (SILAVA / BIOLAT)

11. Lignan

Biocomposite materials un building materials

12. Nanocellulose cement

13. Transparent wood

14. Cellulose cotton wool

15. Wood foam thermal insulation

16. ICLT - interlocking cross laminated timber panels

17. Wood fibre composite material floor

18. Glass fibre / wood flour thermoplastic composite

material

19. Wood – plastic composites

20. Dendrolight cell material (MeKA*)

21. Thermal insulation material from needles (RTU

IESE)

Other new products with high added value

22. Nanocrystallic cellulose

23. Suberin-acid salts

24. Suberin as cohesive substance (LSIWC)

25. Lignin polymers

26. Nanocellulose film

27. Activated coal as sorbent (LSIWC)

28. Xylan

29. Starch

30. Furfural (LSIWC)

*Forest and Wood Products Research and Development Institute (MeKA)

Products included in multi-criteria analysis

Page 8: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

8

Multi-criteria analysis matrix. An example

Riga Technical university

No.Criteria Product A Product B Product C Product D

x1 x2 x3 x4

1 Production development stage 5 3 5 4

2 Wood resource consumption amounts 4 2 4 4

3 Product market 5 4 5 5

4 Complexity of technological process 3 2 4 5

5 Specific water consumption 2 3 5 3

6 Specific electricity consumption 2 3 1 4

7 Specific thermal energy consumption 2 4 1 2

8Waste and residue amounts from production

2 5 5 3

9By-products, that can be produced

simultaneously from this material flow3 5 2 4

10CO2 emission amounts from production

3 5 1 4

11Product effects on natural environment (air,

water, soil, climate, living organisms)3 4 2 4

12 Product effects on human health 3 4 1 4

13Product compliance to eco-design base

principles4 3 2 5

14Necessary investments to start production

1 2 1 3

Page 9: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

99

Results of multi-criteria analysis: TOP 10 products

with highest commercialization potential

ProductMulti-criteria

analysis resultRanking

Biodiesel 0,829 1

Bio-oil 0,813 2

Lyocell (textyle) 0,767 3

Suberin as cohesive substance 0,710 4

ICLT – interlocking cross laminated

timber panels0,701 5

Xylan 0,689 6

Fish food additive from

microorganism proteins 0,650 7

Suberin-acid salts 0,596 8

Transparent wood 0,587 9

Cellulose cotton wool 0,584 10

Page 10: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1010

Products for further commercialization

potential study

IESE recommendations LSF selection

Biodiesel from bio-oil Bio-oil

Lyocell (textile from wood) + fish

food additive from

microorganism proteins

Lyocell (textile from wood)

Suberin as cohesive substance

Xylan

Page 11: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1111

TOP 3 products commercialization potential

further study

Products effects on climate policy goal achievement

Available resources amount for production

Eco-design analysis

Potential market and price study

Economic analysis

Page 12: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

12

Product manufacturing technologies

Page 13: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1313

Xylan (xylite) production technologies

▪ Main raw materials:

– woodchips;

– hydrochloric acid;

– ammonium hydroxide;

– water;

– sodium hydroxide.

▪ Biggest effects on

environment:

– electricity;

– use of chemicals.

Birch wood cutting into woodchips (1)

Woodchip drying 2)

Woodchip milling (3)

Dust removal by sifting (4)

Milled woodchip heating in acid (5)

Cooling (6)

Swelling (7)

Sifting (8)

Washing (9)

Heating (10)

Preparation for extraction (11)

«Microwave» extraction (12)

Filtering (13)

Sitting (14)

Centrifuge (15)

Product preparation (16)

Birch wood procurement heat electricity water

Page 14: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1414

Bio-oil production technologies

▪ Main raw materials:

– woodchips.

▪ Biggest effects on

environment:

– electricity;

– heat;

– woodchips.

Chipping (1)

Woodchip drying (2)

Woodchip milling (3)

Pyrolysis (4)

Cyclone (5)

Cooling/condenser (6)

Storage (7)

Wood extraction heat electricity water

Hard fraction

Page 15: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1515

Lyocell production technologies

▪ Main raw materials:

– wood;

– NMMO;

– oxygen;

– ozone.

▪ Biggest effects on environment:

– electricity;

– heat.

Cellulose preparation (1)

Cellulose chemical dissolution (2)

Spinning (3)

Washing (4)

Processing (5)

Drying (6)

Product (7)

Non-coniferous wood extraction heat electricity water

NMMO

Page 16: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

16

Eco-design analysis

Page 17: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1717

Eco-design is a

systematic method to

develop goods and

services, that could

improve

sustainability by

decreasing

products effects on

environment in a

whole life cycle.

Eco-design (I)

Products design

Environment

Functionality

Quality

Safety

Price

Suitability for production

Ergonomics

Aesthetics

Page 18: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1818

▪ ECO-it numerically evaluates effects on environment

created by each material and process.

▪ Selected production amount for each products is 1 ton.

▪ To make productions mutually comparable, identical

energy resources and transport were chosen:

– transport (load >32 t), tkm − CO2 eqv. 0,117 kg, mPt 14,0;

– electricity (fossil), kWh − CO2 eqv. 0,594 kg, mPt 59,9;

– heat (firewood), MJ − CO2 eeqv. 0,006 kg, mPt 3,61.

▪ ECO-it materials and process database is limited. For

example, co-generation is not offered.

Selected products effects on environment

modelling with program ECO-it

Page 19: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

1919

Results of eco-design analysis

Xylan Bio-oil Lyocell

CO2 eqv./t CO2 eqv./t CO2 eqv./t

Electricity 3,00 0,05 3,10

Heat 0,10 0,05 0,17

Chemicals 0,73 0,00 0,02

Woodchips 0,19 0,04 0,04

Total 4,02 0,14 3,34

▪ Smallest effects on environments are created by bio-oil production.

▪ Electricity consumption dominates analysed products effects on

environment, that can be explained by a fact that it is impossible to

choose co-generation as electricity source.

▪ CO2 eqv. method evaluates water effects as zero, therefore it is

zero for all products independent of consumed water amounts.

Page 20: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

20

Economic analysis

Page 21: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2121

System dynamic model blocksBiooil Production

Costs, Revenues, and Profit for Biooil

Electricity Consumption for Biooil production

Finances and Investments for Biooil

Labor requirement and wages for Biooil

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2021 Jan 1, 2026 Jan 1, 2031

0

20

40

60

80

100

Non-commercial use only!Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2031

39,300

39,600

EUR/yr per yr

Ca

pit

al co

sts

-

Bio

oilr

pro

du

cti

on

-

Co

py 3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2021 Jan 1, 2026 Jan 1, 2031

0

20

40

60

80

100

Non-commercial use only!

Infrastructure and Technology for Biooil production

Heating Consumption for Biooil production

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 20261,610

1,620

1,630

1,640

EUR/yr per yr

an

nu

al p

rofi

t B

ioo

il

- C

op

y 3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2021 Jan 1, 2026 Jan 1, 2031

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

t/yr

Capacity in operation Biooil - Copy

Potencials izmantosanai - Copy

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2021 Jan 1, 2026 Jan 1, 2031

915

920

925

930

t/yr

Bio

ella

s r

azo

sa

na

- C

op

y

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

500,000

1,000,000

(EUR/yr)/yr per yr²

Capital costs - increment rate Biooil - Copy 3

Capital costs - discard rate Biooil - Copy 3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

30,300

30,400

30,500

30,600

30,700

30,800

(t/yr)/yr

Co

mm

issio

nin

g

rate

Bio

oil -

Co

py 3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

91,000

91,500

92,000

92,500

t/yr

Ca

pa

cit

y u

nd

er

co

nstr

ucti

on

Bio

oil

- C

op

y 3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

30,300

30,400

30,500

30,600

30,700

30,800

(t/yr)/yr

Ca

pa

cit

y o

rde

r ra

te

Bio

oil -

Co

py 3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

30,300

30,400

30,500

30,600

30,700

30,800

(t/yr)/yr

De

sir

ed

ord

er

rate

Bio

oil -

Co

py 3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2031

1,000

1,500

2,000

t/yr

Ievaditais koksnes daudzums - Copy

Bioellas razosana - Copy

Non-commercial use only!Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

2.36

2.37

2.38

2.39

2.40

Au

xilia

ry_

16

9 -

Co

py

3

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2026

915

920

925

930

t/yr

Bioellas razosana - Copy

Kopejais pardotais apjoms - Copy

Non-commercial use only!

Jan 1, 2016 Jan 1, 2021 Jan 1, 2026 Jan 1, 2031

91.5

92.0

92.5

93.0

(t/yr)/yr

De

co

mm

issio

nin

g

rate

Bio

oil -

Co

py 3

Non-commercial use only!

??

?

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

Capacity underconstruction Biooil -

Copy 3Capacity order rateBiooil - Copy 3

Commissioning rateBiooil - Copy 3

Capacity in operationBiooil - Copy

Decommissioningrate Biooil - Copy 3

Avg lifetime oftechnology Pyrolysis

reactor - Copy 3

Avg constructiontime Biooil - Copy 3

Electricityrequirement Biooil -

Copy 3Increase inelectricity

requirement Biooil -Copy 3

Commissioning rateBiooil - Copy 3

Electricityrequirement of newtechnology Biooil -

Copy 3

Average electricityconsumption Biooil -

Copy 3

Decrease inelectricity

requirement Biooil -Copy 3

Electricityconsumption rateproduction Biooil -

Copy 3

Electricity consumedfor Biooil production -

Copy 3

Average electricityconsumption Biooil -

Copy 3

Capacity utilizationBiooil - Copy 3

Capacity in operationBiooil - Copy

Required capacityaddition Biooil -

Copy 3

Adjustment forcapacity in

operation Biooil -Copy 3

Capacity inoperation

adjustment timeBiooil - Copy 3

Desired order rateBiooil - Copy 3

Capacity in operationBiooil - Copy

Desired capacityunder construction

Biooil - Copy 3

Adjustment forcapacity under

construction Biooil -Copy 3

Desired capacity inoperation Biooil -

Copy 3

Desired capacity inoperation Biooil -

Copy 3

Specific investmentin technology Biooil

- Copy 3

Investment rate intechnology - Biooil

production - Copy 3

Cummulativeinvestment in

technology Biooil -Copy 3

Discount rate Biooil- Copy 3

Economic lifetimeBiooil - Copy 3

Capital costs -Biooilrproduction - Copy 3

Capital costs -increment rateBiooil - Copy 3

Capital costs -discard rate Biooil -

Copy 3

Capacity order rate Biooil

- Copy 3

Current Efficiency -electricity Biooil

production - Copy 3

Efficiencydevelopment

potential - electricityBiooil - Copy 3

Efficiency researchpotential-electricity

Biooil - Copy 3

Research rate -electricity Biooil -

Copy 3

Development rate-electricity Biooil -

Copy 3

Time to develop-electricity Biooil -

Copy 3

Time to research -electricity Biooil -

Copy 3

Perceived maximumefficiency-electricity

Biooil - Copy 3

Current Efficiency -

electricity Biooil production

- Copy 3

Decommissioning rate

Biooil - Copy 3

ProductCosts birchveneer - Copy 5

CumProductionCostsBiooil - Copy 3

UnitProdCosts Biooil- Copy 3

UnitCapCosts Biooil- Copy 3

Biooil Price - Copy

CumRevenuesFromBiooil - Copy 3

RevenuesFromBiooil - Copy 3

Profit Biooil - Copy 3

Capital costs -Biooilr

production - Copy 3

Commissioning rateBiooil - Copy 3

Decommissioningrate Biooil - Copy 3

Capacity in operationBiooil - Copy

Labor for Biooilproduction - Copy 3

Increase in LaborRequirements Biooil

- Copy 3

Decrease in LaborRequirement Biooil -

Copy 3

Average salary Biooil- Copy 3

Annual wages Biooil- Copy 3

Labor RequirementsBiooil - Copy 3

New Laborrequirement

capacity Biooil -Copy 3

Initial laborrequirement Biooil -

Copy 3 Effect of productionon labor

requirement - Biooil- Copy 3

Step for capacityBiooil - Copy 3

Labor costs Biooil -Copy 3New Capacity for

Biooil - Copy 3

Reference CapacityBiooil - Copy 3

Necessary laborrequirement Biooil -

Copy 3

OtherProdCostsBiooil - Copy 3

Biooil variable costs- Copy 3

Labor costs Biooil -Copy 3

Average electricityconsumption Biooil -

Copy 3

Electricity tariff

intial specific energyconsumption Biooil -

Copy 3

energy costs Biooil -Copy 3

annual profit Biooil -Copy 3

Commissioning rateBiooil - Copy 3

fraction initialinstalled capacity

Biooil - Copy 3

Constant_1 - Copy4

Heating requirementBiooil - Copy 3

Increase in heatrequirement Biooil -

Copy 3

Commissioning rateBiooil - Copy 3

Heatingrequirement of newtechnology Biooil -

Copy 3

Average heatingconsumption Biooil -

Copy 3

Decrease in heatrequirement Biooil -

Copy 3

Heat consumptionrate productionBiooil - Copy 3

Heat consumed forBiooil production -

Copy 3

Average heatingconsumption Biooil -

Copy 3

Capacity utilizationfor Biooil - Copy 3

Capacity in operationBiooil - Copy

Required capacityaddition for Biooil -

Copy 3

Capacity in operationBiooil - Copy

Desired capacity inoperation Biooil -

Copy 3

Decommissioning rate

Biooil - Copy 3

Current Efficiency -heat Biooil production

- Copy 3

Efficiencydevelopment

potential - heat Biooil- Copy 3

Efficiency researchpotential-heat Biooil -

Copy 3

Research rate -heat Biooil - Copy 3

Development rate-heat Biooil - Copy 3

Time to develop-heat Biooil - Copy 3

Time to research -heat Biooil - Copy 3

Perceived maximumefficiency-heat Biooil

- Copy 3

Average heatingconsumption Biooil -

Copy 3

Current Efficiency -heat Biooil production

- Copy 3

heating tariff wood -Copy 4

heating costs forBiooil production -

Copy 3

Rate_3 - Copy 4

Rate_14 - Copy 4

added value perunit Plywood - Copy

4

annual profit perunit Biooil - Copy 3

added valuePlywood - Copy 4

Rate_18 - Copy 4

fraction increaseheating tariff wood

Auxiliary_71 - Copy4 Labor costs Biooil -

Copy 3

annual profit perunit Biooil - Copy 3

UnitCapCosts Biooil- Copy 3

Biooil variable costs- Copy 3

fraction capitalcosts Plywood -

Copy 4

fraction labour costsPlywood - Copy 4

fraction runningcosts Plywood -

Copy 4

fraction profitPlywood - Copy 4

Auxiliary_19 - Copy4Auxiliary_69 - Copy

4

Final product priceincrease

wood costs - Copy4

Auxiliary_110 -Copy 4

Pirmsapstradesiekartas - Copy

Pieejamais koksnesdaudzums - Copy

Ievaditas koksnesmitrums - Copy

wood chips fromproduction process

transfer from solidm3 to loose m3

Transfer from solidm3 to tonne - Copy

Koksne ar mitrumu10% - Copy

Aizvaditais mitrums- Copy

Velamais mitrums -Copy

Pirolizesiekarta - Copy

Bioellas razosana -Copy

Bioogles - CopyPirolizes

gaze - Copy

Bioellas izstradesapjoms - Copy

Bioellas razosanaspotencials - Copy

Capacity in operationBiooil - Copy

Bioellas razosanaspotencials - Copy

Biooglu izstradesapjoms - Copy

SarazotaBioella - Copy

Pardosanas vietejatirgu - Copy

Eksports - Copy

Eksporta dala -Copy

Koksneskrajums - Copy

Iespejamaisapstrades apjoms -

Copy

Bioellas izstradesapjoms - Copy

Ievaditas koksnesmitrums - Copy

Velamais mitrums -Copy

Sagadatais koksnesdaudzums - Copy

Ievaditais koksnesdaudzums - Copy

Razosanaspotencials - Copy

Razosanaspotencials - Copy

Total energycontent in wood -

Copy

Total energycontent in dried

wood - Copy

Energy content inBiooil - Copy

Energy content inBiochar - Copy

Energy content inPyrolysis gas - Copy

Bioogles - Copy

Pirolizesgaze - Copy

Bioellas razosana -Copy

Total Biooil energy -Copy

Total Biochar energy- Copy

Total Pyrolysis gasenergy - Copy

Total residueenergy - Copy

Necessary energyfor heating - Copy

Auxiliary_121 -Copy

Bioellas razosana -Copy

Bioellas razosana -Copy

fraction increaselabour salary

Kopejais pardotaisapjoms - Copy

Kopejais pardotaisapjoms - Copy

Bioellas razosana -Copy

Auxiliary_159 -Copy

Auxiliary_165 -Copy 3

Ievaditais koksnesdaudzums - Copy

Wood chips price -Copy 3Rate_34 - Copy 6

Final product priceincrease

Auxiliary_166 -Copy 3

Bioellas razosana -Copy

Level_20 - Copy 3

Rate_49 - Copy 3

Constant_15 - Copy3

Auxiliary_167 -Copy

Potencialsizmantosanai -

Copy

Potencialsizmantosanai -

Copy

Auxiliary_168 -Copy

Auxiliary_169 -Copy 3

Production process

steps

Production

capacities Investments and

capital

investments

Workforce,

expenses

Electricity, energy

efficiencyHeat, energy efficiency

Income,

expenses,

profit

Page 22: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2222

Input data for system dynamics model

Product

Selected

production

capacities,

t/year

Product

amount from

used raw

material, %

Product

price, €/t

Capital

investments, €/t

Lyocell 65 000 30,4 1 2 500 4 328

Bio-oil 30 000 70 2 190 600

Xylan

derivatives20 000 15 1 2 500 5 000

1 – from input dry mass2 – from input raw material with 10% relative moisture content

Input data, that are taken into account:

▪ electricity and heat consumptions and tariffs;

▪ chemical amounts and expenses;

▪ workforce and it’s expenses.

Page 23: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2323

Assumptions in system dynamic modelling

▪ raw material and end products price increase is

2% per year;

▪ payment increase for workforce is 3% per year;

▪ heat tariff increase is 1,5% per year;

▪ electricity tariff increase is 1,5% per year;

▪ economic lifetime for technologies is 15 years;

▪ investments discount rate is 7%.

Page 24: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2424

Products relative expenses comparison

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lyocell Bio-oil Xylan derivatives

Workforce expenses Capital expenses Wood expenses

Energy expenses Other expenses Chemical expenses

Page 25: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2525

Profit showings comparison

-60,00

-40,00

-20,00

0,00

20,00

40,00

60,00

-600,00

-400,00

-200,00

0,00

200,00

400,00

600,00

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Pro

fit o

n u

se

d w

oo

d u

nit, €

/m3

Pro

fit o

n p

rod

uctio

n u

nit, €

/t

Lyocell profit (on t of production) Bio-oil profit (on t of production)

Xylan profit (on t of production) Lyocell profit (on m3 wood)

Bio-oil profit (on m3 wood) Xylan profit (on m3 wood)

Page 26: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2626

▪ Feasibilty study’s economic and effects on environment evaluation

shows that it is necessary to develop product groups not individual

products, that matches up with bioeconomy principles and increase

income overall

Cascade type production unit

Riga Technical university

Use

fo

r energ

y p

rod

uct

ion

Biomass

1.

end-product

By-product use

By-product use

3.

end-product

2.

end-product

Page 27: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

27

Potential market and price study

Page 28: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2828

Product Price

Market appeal Competition advantages

Local

market

International

market

Local

market

International

market

Lyocell 2,54 €/kg 69 % 80 % 27 %

46 % (natural)

47 %

58 % (natural)

Bio-oil 9–15 €/GJ 67 % 73 % 27 % 31 %

Xylan

(xylitol)

6 €/kg - 67 % - 14 %

Potential market and price study

Page 29: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

2929

Market outlook - GE/ McKinsey matrix

0%

33%

66%

99%

0% 33% 66% 99%

Ma

rke

t a

ttra

cti

ve

ne

ss

Products competitive advantages

Lyocell LV Lyocell EU Lyocell LV natural Lyocell EU natural

Xylitol Europe Bio-oil LV Bio-oil Europe

Page 30: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

3030

▪ Xylan (xylitol) can be obtained as by-product in other production

processes, xylitol as sweetener has big competition. Complex

product manufacturing possibilities or manufacturing of xylan as

by-product should be evaluated.

▪ Bio-oil as fuel is possible to realise, if competition advantages are

improved, but it is advised to evaluate products from bio-oil with

higher added value. Bio-oil use can be put to further processing in

products with higher added value, for example, biodiesel

(transport), phenol (rubber factories), volatile organic acids (ice-

cover preclusion), additives for pharmacy and food factories, etc.

▪ Lyocell shows positive commercialization possibilities in a

segment of natural fibres. Total textile fibre segment should

concentrate on international market.

Before starting production and commercialization more detailed

market study and analysis of business plan is necessary.

Market study results summary

Page 31: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

31

Additional research questions

Page 32: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

3232

Additional research questions

Question groups

1. Innovative technologies

2. Innovative products

3. Economic questions

4. Environmen

t and climate

questions

5. Law and regulations questions

24 research questions are offered in a feasibility study

Page 33: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

33

Conclusions

Page 34: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

3434

▪ The golden string of LSF can be found in bioeconomy development

of the forestry industry: there is a wide range of possibilities to

increase price of forest resources in long term, by going step by step

in exported forest resource processing in Latvia, by initializing

(helping create) increased demand in local market and increased

economic advantages of forest resource use.

▪ There are fields identified, where forestry industry organisations can

work. It was done by evaluating three innovative products – textile

from wood (lyocell), bio-oil and chemical products (xylan derivatives)

commercialization possibilities. Separate manufacturing of one

particular product, without using residues for manufacturing of other

products with high added value, is not economically feasible in most

cases and leave bigger effects on climate and environment.

Therefore, it is suggested to evaluate manufacturing of these

products in a complex system with other products (using by-

products for manufacturing of other products) in detail.

Conclusions (I)

Page 35: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

3535

▪ Scientific institutions of Latvia are ready to carry out studies onmanufacturing of innovative products from forest biomass, includingdevelopment of new and effective technologies for globally known by-products, and their commercialization, but until now innovationdevelopment has been obstructed by:

– lack of financial resources;

– interdisciplinary cooperation nihility between different scientific institutions;

– lack of studies that are oriented on results;

– scientifically justified facts and trust, that there are adequate and suitableamounts of available bioresources in Latvia;

– disregard of bioeconomy base principles.

▪ It should be continued to systematically develop innovative productsand technologies commercialization possibilities by taking into accountcommercialization effecting factors (for example, not only economic andclimate, but also political, resource and social, etc. factors) dynamicnature.

Conclusions (II)

Page 36: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

36

Recommendations

Page 37: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

3737

▪ To develop organisation (JSC «Latvia’s State Forests») bioeconomystrategy, that would be a base for resource consolidation, research actions,product commercialization in short term and long term.

▪ Climate alignment. To help government institutions arrange climate politicsquestions, achieving support in carbon preservation innovative productsmethods acknowledgment and include these calculations in EU memberstates climate goals.

▪ Resource alignment. To make resource use study on non-coniferous wood,depending on species, use for products with high added value and onparticular, incompletely used forest resource (for example, needles, barks)no residue use possibilities for manufacturing of different products with highadded value.

▪ Manufacturing alignment. To make detailed studies on bio-oil, textile fromwood and valuable chemical compound complex manufacturing possibilitiesin Latvia, including practical studies (development of technologies andprototypes) and business plan development for particular productmanufacturing. To evaluate possibilities to establish biorefinery factory inLatvia, where forest biomass would be used as a main resource. Toevaluate possibilities to renew cellulose production in Latvia formanufacturing of products with high added value, using innovative,environment and human health friendly technologies.

Recommendations (I)

Page 38: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

3838

▪ Environment alignment. To carry out a study on bioeconomydevelopment effects on climate, environment and biodiversity, to defineboundary conditions for different bioresources that can be collectedfrom forest, without creating damages on climate, environment andbiodiversity.

▪ To give an opportunity to representative of scientific institutions of Latviato offer and for LSF to support local scientist created innovationdevelopment for forest biomass use to create product with high addedvalue. To initialize scientists on result based research: for innovativeproducts from forest biomass commercialization (from laboratory scaleto product - TRL >7).

▪ Management alignment. Making of expert work group, includinguntraditionally thinking experts, for gradual and regular bioeconomyprinciples establishment in LSF.

▪ Development of information alignment, to (1) promote employer andforestry industry professional understanding and interest in sustainableforest resource use and (2) to advance society’s education andinvolvement in forest resource eco-effective use.

Recommendations (II)

Page 39: Forest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTUForest-based Bioeconomy: research in RTU 2 Bioresource use pyramid New product. Friendly to environment and climate. Socioeconomically and economically

3939

▪ Dr.hab.sc.ing. Dagnija Blumberga

▪ Dr.hab.sc.ing. Ivars Veidenbergs

▪ Dr.sc.ing. Jeļena Pubule, Gatis Bažbauers, Andra

Blumberga

▪ Dr.sc.chem. Sarma Valtere, Kārlis Valters

▪ M.sc. Indra Muižniece, Lauma Žihare, Krišs Spalviņš,

Karīna Bāliņa, Lelde Timma, Vladimirs Kirsanovs, Miķelis

Dzikēvičs, Jeļena Ziemele

▪ B.sc. Raimonda Soloha, Armands Grāvelsiņš, Toms

Prodaņuks, Vivita Priedniece, Līga Sniega, Antra

Kalnbaļķīte

Consultants: Indulis Brauners, Matīss Bičevskis, Andis

Lazdiņš

Contract executors