Forest adaptation in Central Europe

Gerald Kapp

Climate Scenarios of IPCC with CO2Concentrations and expected Global Warming

Global Models → Regional Models: Problem: Precipitation and temperature distribution over the seasons

Natural (present potential) Distribution Area of Beech and Spruce

Koch & Stolley (beech) and Schmidt-Vogt (spruce) in Burschel & Huss 1997

Bio-climate Envelop Models based on B1 Scenario

Christian Kölling, AFZ-DerWald 23/2007 (B1 scenario ~ + 1.8° until 2100)

Problems: Based on natural species distribution areas limited by competition,temperature extremes, soil/site factors, pathogens, genetic factors

Tree Species Eco-Diagrams (Middle Europe, 300-700 m)

Ellenberg 1996

Tree Species Vulnerability Maps

1. Overlay present species distribution map with present mean annual temperature map (altitude: 100 m ≅ - 0.5°C)

2. Definition of threshold values (e.g. mean annual temperature) for species risk (= vulnerability levels)

3. Overlay species distribution map with forecasted mean annual temperature map (e.g. A2 scenario of 3.6°C increase by 2100)

4. Map all detected vulnerability areas

Vulnerability of Spruce to Climate Warming (IPCC A2)

„highly unstable“ presently exceeding the threshold

„unstable“ exceeding the threshold until 2050

„prospectively unstable“ exceeding the threshold until 2100

„stable“ not exceeding the threshold until 2100

Michiels, 2009, FVA BW

Dynamic Evaluation of Vulnerability to Warming of Picea abies

Scenario A1FI (Basis 1961-90, T +2.5°C until 2050, +4.5°C until 2100, const. precipitation

7.5-8.55.5-6.5sub-alpine3.0-4.08.5-10.06.5-8.0high mountain4.0-5.5

10.0-11.58.0-9.5mountain5.5-7.011.5-13.09.5-11.0sub-mountain7.0-8.513.0-14.511.0-12.5hill8.5-1014.5-15.512.5-13.5plain10-11

2100 +4.5°C

2050 +2.5°C

2030 +1.5°C

2010 +1.0°C

AltitudeØ T°C

„highly unstable“ presently exceeding the threshold

„unstable“ exceeding the threshold in next 40 years

„prospectively unstable“ exceeding the threshold in 40-90 years

„stable“ not exceeding the threshold 10.5°C in 90 yrs

Michiels, 2009, FVA BW

Michiels, 2009, FVA BW

Vulnerability of Picea abies in present Coniferous and Mixed Forests under +1.5°C Warming until 2030

„highly unstable“ (now)

„unstable“ (next 40 years)

„prospectively unstable“

„stable“ (next 90 years)

Principles of Silvicultural Planning

• Naturalistic Forestry (state & communal)• Stable stands (mixed, vertically structured,

uneven-aged, natural regeneration, mainly native tree species, matched to forest sites „habitats“)

• Stands defined by „Forest Development Types“oriented at the forest site survey & mapping (= basic unit of management and monitoring)

Forest Site Mapping• Maps (1.10.000) based on survey of geography,

vegetation and soil• Complete cover, organized by State Forest

Research Institute• Hierarchy of site groups (greater group,

subgroup, eco-series, site unit)• Site unit = ecological basis of silviculture• Digitalized maps (1:10.000) with tree species

recommendation for each site unit

forest without digital mapoutdated digital site mapsvalid digital site maps

Beech-sessile oak forest on acid, moderately dry loamy southern slopes

Maple-Fir-Ash Forest in fresh ravines and depressions

EU Forest Adaptation Initiatives

• Models for Adaptive Forest Management (MOTIVE): 2009-2013 (4 yrs), Budget 9.0 M€, 20 research organizations of 14 EU countries (DE, NL, FR, CH, AT, GB, DK, FI, SE, ES, PT, RO, CZ, BG). Coordination: BW State Forest Research Institute, Freiburg

The ultimate objective is to provide insights, data andtools to improve policy making and adaptive forest resource management in face of climate change

Regional Scope of MOTIVE

Work Packages and Information Flow

datamethodsBaseline trends and possible futures for the EU

Development of improved models for adaptive forest management

Testing and evaluation management options and risks

Evaluating and selecting good adaptive forest management strategies

Improved decision support in adaptive forest management

Case

studies

EU Forest Adaptation Initiatives

• Management strategies to adapt alpine space forests to climate change risks (MANFRED): 2009-2012. Budget 3.3 M€, 6 research organizations of (DE, FR, IT, AT, SI, CH). Coordination: Forest Research Institute, Freiburg

• Goal: develop adaptation strategies for a sustainable forestry in the alpine area and to test them in pilot areas

Conclusion of Forest Adaptation in Central Europe

Adaptation efforts focus on:

• Stable forests, close to nature, i.e. well matched to the forest site, mixed, vertically structured, uneven-aged forests with natural regeneration;

• Present potential and real distribution maps of most important species;

• Bio-climatic envelops of most important tree species;• Vulnerability maps for most important tree species;• Altering stand mixtures: diminishing the share of tree

species in risk sites in favour of tree species better suited to present or future climate conditions, in view of their ecological requirements.

Carried out by strong forest research institutes