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Foresight
Scenario building
Atelier GloFoods 27 février 2020
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, ART-Dev
FREEDOMMany possible futures
Monitor the realities
Look under the radar
Explore
POWERNo choice
or no more the choice?
Imagine different
futures
Will
WILL“There is no fair wind
for one who knows not
whither he is bound”
(Seneca)
Build the future you
wish
The future: something to be created
Past and futures are
multiple and uncertain
Present
Plausible past
Possible futures
Desirable
futures
Desired / normative
futures
What are the facts ?
How do we interpret them ?What is currently changing ?
What could change in the future ?
Attitudes, scenarios and strategies
Attitudes towards the
future
Types of scenarios Types of
strategies
Passive No scenarios Course of
events
Reactive No scenarios Adaptative
Pre-active Exploratory Preventive
Proactive Anticipatory Deliberative
A process to prepare to changes
and facilitate desired changes
Economy
Environnement Society
Qualitative approach: vision, scenarios with narratives, etc.
Quantitative
approach
Models : BAU,
what if
Modèles, par
ex IMPACT,
GLOBIOM,
MAgPIE,
GTEM, etc.
Foresight methods vary and evolve
Two possible methods for
building scenarios :
(a) the 2 x 2 matrix technique and
(b) morphological table +
combination of hypotheses
1. Examples of scenarios
2. Similarities and differences in methods
3. Advantages and shortcomings
2x2 matrix : Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
Source : IPCC, 2000
2x2 matrix : Millenium Ecosystem
Assessement (2005)
How to build scenarios 2 x 2
1. Identify the focal issue or decision
2. Scan internal dynamics (organization and its
environment)
3. Identify driving forces in the environment
4. Rank Driving Forces by Importance and Uncertainty
5. Select the Scenario Logic
6. Flesh out the scenarios
7. Implications
8. Selection of leading indicators and signposts
Millenium Ecosystem Assessement
(2005)
2x2 matrix : Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSP)
Source : O’Neill et al., 2017
Escenarios del sistema
agroalimentario Argentino al 2030
Saavedra et al., 2016
Morphological
table +
combination of
hypotheses :
Prospective
Agriculture et
énergie 2030
Source : Vert et Portet, 2010
How to build a morphological table +
combine assumptions1. Identify the focal issue or decision
2. Identify driving forces in the environment
3. Prepare a table with driving forces : from the most influent
to the least influent (or from the most global to the more
specific)
4. Select most representative assumption / hypothesis for
each driver, and then build alternative assumptions
5. Build micro-scenarios per driver
6. Build scenarios by combining micro-scenarios
7. Test coherence of scenarios
8. Compare impact of scenarios
9. Identifiy measures without regrets
10. Work on policy recommendations
Morphological
table +
combination of
hypotheses :
Agrimonde-Terra
(2018)
Healthy scenario
Similarities
2 x 2 matrix technique Morphological table +
combinaison of hypotheses
Need to identify problem / question and time horizon.
Need to define objectives
Participatory
Rigorous and systematic
Identification of drivers and assumptions per driver
Need to write narratives
Possible to illustrate quantitatively the scenarios / link qualitative and
quantitative assumptions
Look at implications and consequences for policymaking
Quantitative
hypotheses for
cropping
systems
Differences
2 x 2 matrix technique Morphological table +
combinaison of hypotheses
Drivers STEEP or DEGEST
Drivers are ranked by
Importance and Uncertainty
axes
Binary approach factors
chosen for the axes should be
“high-impact, high-uncertainty”.
Easier to have a desired /
normative scenario
System with a drivers
connected to each other
Systemic approach large
range of plausible scenarios
(BAU and contrasted).
Coherency is tested
Transparency
The land use and food security system
Advantages
2 x 2 matrix technique Morphological table +
combinaison of hypotheses
Easy it is to implement and
generates highly contrasted
scenarios in a short period of
time.
Systemic approach.
Genereates richer / more
complex scenarios
Shortcomings
2 x 2 matrix technique Morphological table +
combinaison of hypotheses
It does not explicitly take into
account interaction between a
large number of variables.
It does not integrate stable
trends and gradual
developments because it
focuses on key uncertainties
It requires resources and time.
Risk of having a BAU, a rosy
and a dark scenario.
Agrimonde-Terra (2018)
4 scenarios with
agroecological intensification of
cropping systems
Regionalisation
AB
Régionalisation
Households
Households
C D
Régimes sains
Healthy
Coll
a-
pse
A
E
Communautés
Communities
Références• Cornish Edward. 2004 : Futuring : the exploration of the future. Bethesda
(Md) : World Future Society, 313 p.
De Jouvenel Hughes 2004. Invitation à la prospective. Futuribles, 87 p.
Godet M. (1991). De l’anticipation à l’action. Manuel de prospective et de
stratégie. Ed. Dunod, Paris. 390 p.
• Lamblin V. (2018). L’analyse morphologique. Futuribles, Prospective and
Strategic Foresight Toolbox
• Le Mouël C., de Lattre-Gasquet M. et Mora O. (coord.) (2018). Land use
and food security in 2050 : a narrow road. Agrimonde-Terra. Quae,
Versailles, 398 p.
• Rhydderch A. (2017). Scenario Building: The 2x2 Matrix Technique.
Futuribles, Prospective and Strategic Foresight Toolbox