foresight and policy modelling on ict for governance: exploring the next frontiers gianluca...

Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers

Gianluca Misuraca, JRC IPTS Pierre Rossel, CDM EPFL

Cristiano Codagnone, JRC IPTS

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are purely those of the authors and may not in any

circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission

Objectives

Setting the scene: Policy resistance in an age of complexity

ICT for governance and policy modelling: a possible solution?

Conceptual and Methodological Framework

Results and policy implications

Impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling

Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of

governance and policy making

Conclusions: Policy Challenges and Future Research


Outline

To present and discuss the main findings of the scenarios for Digital Europe

2030 designed by JRC IPTS as part of the FP7 CROSSROAD project and

based on a foresight exercise which included:

an analysis of the key areas of expected change in the domain of ICT-

enabled governance and policy modelling (ICT4G&PM), and

envisioning, for each scenario, the risks and opportunities offered by ICT

tools for governance and policy modelling techniques

Based on these findings and discussion

To explore new research frontiers embedding foresight methodologies in

the future expected mainstreaming of participatory ICT tools and policy

modelling techniques


Objectives of the paper

Today, society and the economy are more interconnected, unstable, and

unpredictable than ever

Current policymaking strategies and the ways of procuring supporting

evidence for decision making are no longer able to cope with complex,

multidimensional and highly dynamic societal challenges For more than 60 years, society has largely failed to eradicate critical social

challenges despite investing increasing resources into state policy activity

[Ormerod, 2010]

It appears that policy resistance is responsible for these failures

Policy resistance occurs when an intended policy outcome is defeated

intentionally or unintentionally by complex and dynamic elements, agents,

factors, first order and second order feedback loops, and so on. The causes

are typically multidimensional and found throughout history [Sterman, 2006]


Policy resistance in an age of complexity

On the other side we have: radical increase in computing

power and widespread distribution

of networked communities possibility of collecting and

processing huge amounts of data

at moderate costs

Emergence of futuristic visions (e.g. ‘singularity’: computers will

exceed human cognitive capabilities

and an ‘intelligence explosion’ will

improve our quality of life) [Kurzweil,

2005]


‘ICT intelligence’ explosion for policy modelling

Source: CROSSROAD, 2010

Current tools and approaches for policy design, implementation and

evaluation are ill-suited to capturing the complex and interconnected future

being based on an abstract and unrealistic vision of the human being: rational (utility maximising) average (not heterogeneous) atomized (not connected) wise (thinking long-term) often highly simplified (complexity denial) and politically committed

In short, the intellectual framework upon which policy making rests is

no longer adequate

Our claim is that a paradigmatic shift in developing a new policy

modelling framework is required

However, this is not simply a matter of more computing power and more

data: multiple longstanding challenges also need to be addressed


In search of a paradigmatic shift on policy modelling

EC FP 7th ICT-WP 2009-2010 (Obj. 7.3) and 2011-2012 (obj. 5.6)

joins two complementary research fields (traditionally separated):

the Governance and Participation Toolbox (technologies such as

mass conversation and collaboration tools); and

the Policy Modelling domain (forecasting, agent-based modelling,

simulation and visualisation)

Aims:

improve public decision-making in the age of complexity

make policy-making and governance more effective and more

‘intelligent’ and

accelerate learning path and implementation in the policy cycle


ICT for governance and policy modelling: a possible solution?


The challenge: filling the gap between societal behaviours and governance processes

Policies Health R&D Social

Disciplines Economics Mathematics ICT

Actors Government Citizens Industry

Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable

Governance processes often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified

Goal



National Technical University of Athens

(Coordinator)(Coordinator)

Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency

University Koblenz-Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission

FP7 Coordination and Support Action aiming at:

driving the identification of emerging technologies, new

governance models and novel application scenarios in the

domain of ICT for governance and policy modelling

leading to the structuring of a beyond the state-of-the-art

research roadmap embraced by the research and practice

communities

www.crossroad-eu.netwww.crossroad-eu.net


CROSSROAD Roadmapping Methodological Approach

State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push

State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push

Future Future scenarios: scenarios:

demand pulldemand pull

Future Future scenarios: scenarios:

demand pulldemand pullGapsGapsGapsGaps

GrandGrand challenges challenges (draft)(draft)

Research Research challengechallenge

ss


ss


ss


ss

Research Research roadmap roadmap

(final)(final)

Research Research roadmap roadmap

(final)(final)


Work conducted by IPTS IS Unit as part of CROSSROAD aiming at

developing a visionary scenario analysis based on a foresight exercise to: identify key areas of expected change in the context of radical different future

scenarios anticipate for each scenario, the risks and opportunities offered by ICT tools for

governance and policy modelling

The scenario design exercise proposes a set of scenarios of exploratory nature and presented qualitatively (i.e. narrative scenarios /

storyboards)

The proposed scenarios are instrumental to develop a shared vision to inspire collaborative and interdisciplinary research to mobilize the various governance stakeholders in addressing current and

future societal challenges to provide inputs to the CROSSROAD Roadmap to provide strategic directions

for the future research on ICT4G&PM


Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in future governance and policy modelling

Governments struggle to regulate an increasingly interdependent and complex world, as the financial crisis and other emergencies have shown

Policy-makers do not have the luxury of waiting until situations are clarified and until the effects are evident before they take decisions

Citizens are becoming more vocal in monitoring and influencing policy decisions and future scenarios are likely to show greater complexity and citizens’ involvement

Current ICT tools for collaborative governance and policy modelling start to

show great opportunities for decision-making but they still remain an exception and research is fragmented between academic

fields, application areas, and approaches to innovation (theory vs. practice led)


Rationale of the CROSSROAD scenario design

The history of future studies spans several decades and there are various methods for

‘exploring’ the future However, the growing knowledge-intensity, the pace of technological and societal

changes, and the increasingly networked character of the economy and governance

processes, cannot be explored using technology-oriented future studies only

A more comprehensive approach is needed the approach followed in designing scenarios for Digital Europe 2030 relies on

foresight methods, which are based on a broader concept than Technology

Forecasting and Assessment it implies a wide range of themes and stakeholders perspectives in order to

examine the social and economic aspects of future technological developments the process is interactive, open-ended and bottom-up in order to identify possible

breakthroughs and explore implications and hypotheses that will support defining

strategic directions and policy-related decision-making


Conceptual Framework


Methodological Approach

Trends1. Identify Trends1. Identify Trends

Less impact

More impact

Uncertainty low

Uncertainty high

2. Classification of trends 2. Classification of trends

KEY DIMENSION ONE

KEY DIMENSION TWO 3 . 3 . Extraction of key Extraction of key dimensions of uncertaintiesdimensions of uncertainties

Key dimension 1: extreme 0




SCENARIO ASCENARIO B

SCENARIO C SCENARIO D

4. Dimensions combined to 4. Dimensions combined to identify scenariosidentify scenarios

5. Scenarios stories and 5. Scenarios stories and descriptiondescription

Source: Popper, 2008

Governance/Policy modelling

Civil Servants

Transactional environmentTransactional environment

Government

PrivateSector

Technology suppliers

Civil society organisations

ContextualContextual

environmentenvironment

National politics and

policies

Socio-demographic developments

Economics

...........

Research Community

EU policies

technology

Administrative culture and

attitudes

Other practitioners

14

Combining foresight and modelling techniques in a dynamic and participatory manner may enhance policy intelligence capabilities and thus lead to a better governance and policy making process

e.g. Foresight can help modelling in picking up 'weak signals‘

Our hypothesis is that embedding foresight techniques in structured modelling platforms may serve as a crucial part of an early warning system

it can be used as an instrument for developing policy intelligence mechanisms

participative, transparent, forward-looking methods may support policy-makers in finding solutions for complex societal challenges that cannot be addressed by traditional policy recipes and models based on evidence from the past

a dynamic component need to be introduced in modelling systems so to take into consideration changes and trends developments, as well as inputs from all interested stakeholders that would guarantee effective policy implementation


Exploring the next frontiers: combining foresight and modelling techniques

Structuring a scenario design framework for shaping the future in the domain of governance and policy making

The key societal, policy and technology-research trends can be distilled in two basic uncertainties related to the way the European society and member states will shape their policies and research agendas in the future:

the societal value systems we will be living in (more inclusive, open and transparent or exclusive fractured and restrictive), and

the response (partial or complete, proactive or reactive) to the acquisition and integration of policy intelligence techniques in support of data processing, visualization and simulation for evidence-based policy modelling

These uncertainties are translated into two key dimensions of impact: Degree of Openness and Transparency (Axis Y) and

Degree of Integration in Policy Intelligence (Axis X)


Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling



Low Openness & Transparency : extreme 0

High Openness & Transparency: extreme 1

extreme 1

Low Integration of Policy Intelligence

extreme 0

Self-Service Governance

Open Governance

Privatised Governance

Leviathan Governance

High Integration of Policy Intelligence

Envisioning Digital Europe 2030Envisioning Digital Europe 2030


In all the scenarios, the world in 2030 is expected to be radically different from today's

due to the unprecedented growth and speed of ICT uptake in several fields and

the related impact ICT tools for governance and policy modelling may have

The influences and drivers of innovation and renewal in the public sector

will result not only in change, but will affect the pace at which the state adapts to

the new environment, to its new roles and to increased engagement with

stakeholders and users

Whichever scenario dominates in the future traditional governance models will be

challenged as ICT-based disruptions impinge on democratic, consultative and policy-

making processes

Evidence shows that the scope and scale of transformation will have a major

impact on society (e.g. Web2.0, mobile ICT, pervasive computing, etc.)

ICT tools can herald the transition to a different form of dynamically participative

governance models



While such scenarios are readily imaginable, we do not have appropriate governance

models, process flows, or analytical tools with which to properly understand, interpret,

visualise and harness the forces that could be unleashed

in a world that is increasingly using non-physical communication and borderless

interaction, traditional roles and responsibilities of public administrations will be subject

to considerable change

classical boundaries between citizens and governments will become increasingly

blurred

the balance of power between governments, societal actors and the population will

have to adapt to these challenging new possibilities

A key issue will be to develop and apply advanced ICT tools to provide robust support

to the change process and facilitate the transition to a new ‘digitally-derived legitimacy’



The scenarios developed resulted in a substantial contribution to

shaping the roadmap of future research in the domain of ICT4G&PM

Participatory foresight processes bring together not only experts and

interested parties but involve directly policy-makers and other key

stakeholders (e.g. comments/annotation of public deliverables, CoP, etc.)

This also confirmed that an opening of the decision-making process is

required to ensure robustness and effectiveness of its outcomes

shift in policy making practices from shaping framework conditions and

structural settings towards strategic decision making

recognition of the growing complexity of governance processes


Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of governance and policy making

A shift towards evidence-based / model-based policy making is happening

not always supported by effective empirical data and conceptually sound

understanding of the societal implications of modelling techniques per-se

initial enthusiasm is given way to a significant deal of scepticism, both from

'traditional modellers' and non-experts, including policy-makers themselves

Policy effectiveness depends also on the involvement of a broader range of

stakeholders than those formally in charge of policy decisions

This concept of distributed policy-making and intelligence originally set out by

[Kuhlman, 2001] is de facto at the core of the foresight and roadmapping exercise

underpinning CROSSROAD

openness of governance systems and integration of policy intelligence can

harness collective wisdom, building on the knowledge, experience, and

competence of various actors

Applying this network perspective to a 'distributed platform' based on ICT-enabled

policy modelling and integrated foresight techniques may be instrumental to

further implement policies and achieve socio-economic impacts

Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of governance and policy making


Conclusions: limits and possible directions of evidence-based policy-making


Source: Piniewski, B., Codagnone, C, and Osimo, D. JRC-IPTS, 2011

Strict relationship with the broader task of developing the Future Internet

The Internet was not designed to serve massive scale applications

Emerging technologies (e.g. high quality video, 3D, or applications enabling mass

collaboration, data processing, simulation and visualization through complex

modelling) face severe constraints as regards running seamlessly anytime, anywhere,

with good quality services

Multi disciplinary research to benefit from the opportunities of ICT for better

governance and policy making and to overcome the possible risks to society of

mainstreaming large scale applications in this domain is needed

Considering socio-economic aspects in the development of future ICT tools for

governance and policy modelling techniques

Designing suitable governance and policy-making mechanisms, which provide

appropriate incentives for participation, but at the same time ensure security and avoid

risks (of enlarging digital exclusion, for example)

Solving legal and regulatory issues (e.g. digital rights, privacy and data protection, and

the demand for ‘trust’ in governance in an IoT environment)

Conclusions: policy challenges & possible solutions


Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers


Source: Adapted from CROSSROAD, 2010, and Piniewski, Codagnone, and Osimo, JRC-IPTS, 2011

Distributed Policy

Intelligence Platform

Foresight / A

nticipating the Future



The future is already here…

…it is just unevenly distributed

William Gibson, Science Fiction Writer



Current modelling techniques are not adequate to predict, monitor and

evaluate policy developments and their impacts on society, relative absence of a meta-level of analysis, a reflexive layer where not only it

would be possible to ‘model’, but also ‘model how to model’

A new policy-modelling paradigm shift is required not only by enabling users to become 'living sensors' and providing data to be

directly fed into comprehensive models

but also giving the possibility to the users to have direct access to data they need,

and process them using ICT-enabled simulation and visualization 'intelligent'

systems (i.e. able to find meaning in confusion, independently of human-acquired

knowledge)

ICT alone cannot solve everything and can even generate new problems both institutional and cultural changes are needed

Data and information are a fundamental building block of this new paradigm different data may come in different formats and be difficult to link correctly

data about the future are not available (even the more sophisticated model will not allow to predict exactly what impacts specific policies may have)

Complement modelling approaches with participatory foresight techniques allowing for example the possibility to gather data and opinions directly from users (e.g

enabling both participatory sensing and opportunistic sensing)

developing innovative policy intelligence platforms that based on advanced participation, new modelling and simulation techniques will help bridging the knowledge asymmetry between the experts, the policy makers and the citizen

Foresight will be a crucial component as the real time dynamic of such a policy intelligence platform will not rely simply on data about past and present facts, but will provide the framework for alternative policy options and related impacts

Problems once unknowable due to their size and complexity may become quite knowable




[email protected]

http://is.jrc.ec.europa.eu

foresight and policy modelling on ict for governance: exploring the next frontiers gianluca...

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