Sustainable agriculture in Europe –

When, How and Where, and is it possible to answer?

Mats G E SvenssonLund University Centre for Sustainability

Studies, Sweden

Forescene Workshop 1 – Development of core elements of integrated sustainability scenarios for Agriculture

BACKGROUND

Agriculture as a problem area

“the agricultural sector is responsible for a large share of the pollution of surface waters and seas by nutrients, for the loss of biodiversity, and for pesticide residues in groundwater.”

EEA Web site, Theme Agriculture

”Agriculture and landscape and biodiversity,Agricultural water pollution,Agricultural employment/rural development,Energy use” Ogaji, 2005

Agriculture as a problem area - main drivers

CAP Reform Consumer’s demands

Climate changeEnvironmental Impact

Damage category CostWater resources $1.78Soil resources $13.29–79.35Air resources $1.68Biodiversity $6.71–6.89Human health – pesticides $5.98

Totals $29.44–95.68

Source: Tegtmeier and Duffy, 2004. External costs of agricultural production in US. Int J of Sust Agric. 2(1): 1-20.

Annual external costs of crop production per ha

THE EUROPEAN MODEL OF AGRICULTURE

” an agriculture which is competitive, sustainable, diverse, environmentally respectful, responsive to society, simplified, and justifiable”

COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY -CAP- “The CAP’s tendency to benefit large businesses and landowners

rather than small farmers…”- ”…Cannot be sustained within EU-25”

CAP Reform

Climate change effects in Europe

Climate change

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Source: EEA Report 2/2004.

European agriculture and climate change effects

• Agricultural production can be described in terms of amount and quality.

• Shorter cycles resulting from increased air temperatures• Shorter periods to accumulate yield products (at least in

the case of determinate crops)• Higher potential yields resulting from increased

assimilation of CO2• Increased water-use efficiency resulting from enhanced

regulation of transpiration with elevated CO2. • More droughts and water shortages in southern Europe• More winter crops• More extreme weather events that will lead to periodic

major crop losses Source: IPCC, 1997. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

Climate

change

Consumer demands• Consumers want to have:

– safe food, – good food, – organic food– healthy food, – justified food– know the origin of food– Know the effect of GMO’s

• Labeling –– Brands, branding, brand piracy– International Federation of Organic Agriculture

Movements(IFOAM) norms (www.ifoam.org)– KRAV norms (www.krav.se)

Consumers demands

CAP Reform

GMOs” China's Ministry of Agriculture has approved permanent import safety certificates for genetically modified, or GMO, varieties of soybeans, corn and cotton produced by U.S. agribusiness giant Monsanto Co. The ministry's approvals pave the way for uninterrupted imports of Monsanto's RoundUp Ready Soybeans as well as two of its GMO corn varieties and two of its GMO cotton varieties.”

” Parts of Asia, Europe and elsewhere have already said they would abandon U.S. wheat if the GMO product comes to market. Wheat is the No. 1 exported grain in the world.”

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”Terje Traavik, scientific director of the Norwegian Institute of Gene Ecology, was asked to investigate where 39 people living near a field of Bt maize - which contains a pesticide in the gene - started suffering last autumn when the crop was producing pollen. Blood tests showed the villagers had developed antibodies to the maize's inbuilt pesticide. Traavik said tests so far showed evidence of an immune reaction. Traavik's findings were immediately challenged by Monsanto, the world's leading GM company, and by the Philippine government, which approved GM cultivation last year.”

Consumers demands

Gross nutrient balanceEnvironment

al Impact

Water stress – southern Europe

EEA Web site, Theme Agriculture

Climate change

Environmental Impact

WHEN? HOW? WHERE?- SOME SCENARIOS

Trends for agriculture in Europe

• Demand for cheap food• Demand for locally produced food• Demand for eco-labelled food• Less uncertainty about GMO’s

• Climate change will lead to adaptive responses

• CAP must be reformed within next years

Scenarios for agriculture in Europe – Where shall we go?

BAU• CAP will only be partly

reformed• Adaptive responses to

Climate change kept to a minimum

• Dependency on infrastructure for transportation of agricultural products

• No GMO’s allowed• Continued limited import of

agricultural products from outside Europe

Alternative scenario• CAP will be reformed

entirely• More locally grown food• More organic farming• Higher food prices• Concentration of Agriculture

to central Europe• Less of rural development in

S and N Europe• GMO’s allowed for industrial

crops• Very reduced sugar

production within Europe

Impact of agricultureLandscape and biodiversity

Resource use and waste

Water

Economic development

XXX X X

Production pattern

X XX XX

Consumption pattern

XXX XX XX

Demography XX X XX

Natural systems

XXX XX X

XXX=High, XX=Intermediate, X=Low

Organic farming

EEA Web site, Theme Agriculture

Adaptive responses to climate change

• Changed sowing dates and later-maturing genotypes could be used whatever the type of crop

• Improvement in global water-use efficiency and a reduction in irrigation demand in central and northern Europe

• Higher demands for irrigation in southern Europe

• Higher temperatures during the summer may decrease the growth capabilities of grass.

Agricultural technology aspects

• Use of agrichemicals• Pesticide use• Fertilizer use

• Energy use• Fossil fuels• Biomass• Electricity

• Natural resource use• Irrigation water• Water for processing• Land area• Soils; NPK, Ca, micronutrients

Sustainable agricultural practices

• Reduction or renunciation of the use of mineral fertilisers.• Improved management of organic manure.• Reduction or renunciation of the use of pesticides.• Extension and share of grassland.• Management of crop rotation to prevent groundwater

pollution.• Cultivation of green cover crops.• Organic farming.• Extensive cultivation of field margins.• Survive and enhancement of old agricultural breeds and

cultivars are covered by measures like:• Maintenance and further development of varieties of

endangered animal species and rare crops.• Preservation or improvement of the extent of ecological

valuable areas.• Preservation or improvement of high stem fruit orchards.

www.seamlesswww.seamless--ip.orgip.org

System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society

Aim of SEAMLESS

SEAMLESS propose an integrated framework offering a generic, flexible and modular structure that enables:

Ex-ante assessment of agricultural, environmental and rural development policies and agricultural innovations

• analysis at the full range of scales• analysis of the environmental, economic and social

contributions of a multifunctional agriculture • analysis of a broad range of issues

Why Agricultural indicators?� Supplying decision-makers and the general public with

relevant information on the current state and trend in the environment as they affect the agricultural sector and rural development.

� Supporting decision-makers get a better grasp of the cause and effect relationships between the choices and practices of farmers and agricultural policy-makers on the one hand and the environment on the other, steering in the right direction any initiatives prompted by changes in the state of the environment.

� Assisting to monitor and assess the effectiveness of measures taken to promote sustainable agriculture.

Yunlong&Smit 1994

Impact assessment in EC� Impact assessment procedure in the EC since

2003: “to assess the full effects of a policy proposal including estimates of its economic, environmental, and social impacts. …. in particular to reflect EU's Sustainable development strategy"(Communication on Impact Assessment, COM 2002: 276)

� Inter-service steering groups

� Experiences up to 2005: � cumbersome and few (CAP sugar reform a positive example)� a process rather than an event

� From 2005 onwards: � more strict� many more to be expected

SEAMLESS Integrated Framework

SEAMLESS scenariosAssessment questions:

Effects of trade liberalization on agricultural markets and the agro-environmental system within the EU and in developing countries

Effects of:1. implementation of directives in the EU and 2. agro-ecological innovation

on sustainability and multifunctionality of agriculture and sustainable development in rural areas

Temporal scale – Spatial scale

SEAMLESS indicators

• Choose indicators• Construct indicators

• Combine indicators• Aggregate indicators• Disaggregate indicators• Composite indicators

• Compare indicators• Save/Retrieve indicators

SEAMLESS Models

Level:

Global

National

Regional

Landscape

Local

Field

Model:

GTAP – Global trade model

CAPRI agroeconomic model

(SIAT/Sensor)

FSSIM farm model

APES – Biophysical Crop model

Models and links in first prototypeIndicator Calculator

CAPRI

EXPAMOD

FSSIM-MP

FSSIM-AM APES

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SEAMLESS outputs