forescene_finalworkshop-brussels_25nov08

WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08

The FORESCENE project:Developing scenarios and

modelling for sustainabilityStefan Bringezu, Mathieu Saurat, Roy Haines-Young, Alison

Rollett, Mats Svensson

Final Round-Table Workshop "New Approaches and RecentResults of Sustainability Scenario Building and Modelling"

Brussels, 25 Nov. 2008


Background and overview of project

The questions: 1 to 6

The FORESCENE Meta-Model

The scenarios

Contents


Background and overview of the FORESCENE project


Need of a framework for creating sustainabilityscenarios integrating different environmental topics(water, soil, resource use etc.)

Need for access to scenarios that can be used forstrategic policy preparation in the context of theSustainable Development Strategy.

Need to understand the key driving forces and theircross-cutting linkages, which lead to increasedpressure on the environment.

Initial points


FORESCENE is developping an analytical frameworkfor consistent environmental sustainabilityscenario building (forecasting, backcasting,simulation) in areas such as water, soil,biodiversity, waste and natural resources.

There is a focus on backcasting, to identify differentscenarios leading to the achievement of future targets.

Objectives


•describe the chosen environmental problems,review policy objectives and indicators, anddetermine the cross-cutting driving forces;

•develop core elements of integrated sustainabilityscenarios (goal definition);

•determine cross-sectoral measures andprocesses to be considered for change (pre-backcasting);

•address quantitative and qualitative parametersfor measurement (parametrization);

•develop a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenarioframework and example projections(forecasting);

•develop alternative scenarios (incl.backcasting);

•check the options for modelling, and

•work out conclusions.

Overview of project tasks


a

1) What is the problem?

2) Where shall we go to?

3) How to get there?

4) How to measure and modelthis?

5) What is likely to happenwith BAU?

6) Which alternative scenariosare possible?


Question 1: What is the problem?


Conceptual Basis

Socio-industrialmetabolism andDPSIR framework


Answeringquestion 1

Highest scoringcross-cutting factorsfor biodiversity/soils,water, resources/waste:- globalization,- composition of material input,- material intensity,- depletion of resources


Question 2: Where shall we go to?


Outlining a desirable futureTowards sustainability goal references


Answering question 2Sustainability goal references


Question 3: How to get there ?


Answering question 3Cross-sectoral, multi-beneficial sustainability strategies


Answering question 3Policy strategies and measures


Question 4: How to measure and model this ?


Requirements for modelling


Structure of the FORESCENE Meta Model


Important:

The Bayesian network approach is not seen in FORESCENE as areplacement of other models in current use but rather as a meansof integrating different forms of knowledge, whether from existingmodels, reported data or expert judgement.

In other words, the Bayesian network approach is used toconstruct a meta-model.

Disclaimer


• Inputs (drivers, strategies) are considered at EU level

• Outputs (environmental impacts associated with EU) are consideredat world level (except for water)

General model structure


Mineral materialsmodule

Water module

Economymodule

Fossil energymodule

Biofuelmodule

Biomass and agriland use module

Biodiversity andsoils module

GHG module

The FORESCENE Meta Modelmain modules

The modules areseparately developedBayesian networks

Modules can evolveindependently, due todifferent levels ofknowledge.

"Hard" evidence(functions) can becombined with "soft"expert judgement

Results are given asprobabilities


Mineral materials moduleOverview of the structure


Mineral materials moduleOverview of the structure

TMRminerals


Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact underthe influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can bemodified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies.

Detailed model structure


Bayesian networks do not allow for intrinsic modelling of time dynamics ina satisfactory way.

Time dimension


Format of results


Question 5: What happens with BAU ?


Initial conditions

- Initial year is 2000 (or 2005 in when data available)- Initial values are directly taken or estimated from reported or

modelled data (e.g. Eurostat), or derived from expert judgement

Assumptions for forecasting:

- Time frame: 2000-2050- Assumptions for growth rates are directly taken or estimated

from existing studies and models (e.g. EEA environmentoutlook)

Uncertainties

- They are implemented as normal distributions- For example: when two different sources give the values x and y

for a given variable A, the representation of A in the BN can be anormal distribution with mean = (x+y)/2 and 90% CI = |x-y|/2

Baseline scenario


Baseline scenario


Question 6: Which alternative scenarios are possible ?


Developing alternative scenarios


Alternative scenarios

AS1,Commitment tochange

Under this scenario there is clear commitment tothe goals of sustainability. There are markedimprove-ments in the efficiencies of using energy,materials and water, and there is expan-sion inrenewable energy production. The rate of change ismoderate to high and significant improvementshave mostly been achieved by 2030. …..

AS2, Muddlingthrough

Under this scenario some of the sustainability goalsidentified are achieved in the medium term, butsuccess is patchy and modest.……

AS3, Failing todeliver

Under this scenario the transition to sustainabilityhas been unsuccessful or weak. Increasedconsumption of resource intensive goods hasmeant that there has been less progress towardshigher energy and resource efficiency…..


Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status

NGHGE: Global greenhouse gas emissio...

GHG 40-50 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 50-60 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 60-70 GtCO2 equiv per ...

1.0921.577.5

74.3 ± 15

•GHG emissions:• Base line to 2025• Mid range, 2030-3035• Low range 2035-2050

•After 2025:• Low non-compliance in agriculture• Green forest management• Strong soil framework directive

Base-line

2050 - baseline

NGHGE: Global greenhouse gas emissio...

GHG 40-50 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 50-60 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 60-70 GtCO2 equiv per ...

0 +.019 100

80 ± 12

2050 - alternative


Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status (intra EU)


Alternative scenario:Commitment to change


Alternative scenario:Muddling through


Alternative scenario:Failing to deliver


Modelling exercise


Reduction of TMR reduces domestic and foreign wastegeneration

Environmental burden shifting is reduced:- no land use change/pressure on biodiverstiy in otherregions due to biofuels- reduced foreign TMR/mining waste

Water consumption tends to decline due to- reduced cooling water demand energy supply- reduced material use in manufacturing

Improved biodiversity due to mitigated GHGemissions (and additional measures)

Synergistic effects of modelledstrategies

Many thanks for your attention !

[email protected]


Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and EnergyMathieu Sauratphone:+ 49 202 2992 312fax: + 49 202 2992 138email: [email protected]

www.forescene.eu

Contact

forescene_finalworkshop-brussels_25nov08

Documents

lucsus brussels

forescene projectwi

overview of project

scenarios andmodelling

forescene metamodel

chosen environmental

material intensity

happenwith bau