forecasting the media futurefiles.ctctcdn.com/83040c3e001/e5bb43a9-86ca-4b66-9743-2dc7f786… ·...

FORECASTING THE MEDIA FUTURE

Guy Abrahams Global Strategic Planning Director

© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.

=-£1bn CUMULATIVE LOSS IN UK ADSPEND

BY 2030

AVERAGE ANNUAL ADSPEND GROWTH 2015-2018

+8.5%

+6.3% +3.5%

+3.1%

+2.7% +2.2%

+1.8% -5.8%

DIGITAL ADSPEND OVERTAKES TV

2018

EUROPE VS GLOBAL

2016

2018

OF DIG ITAL ADSPEND IN CENTRAL & WESTERN EUROPE IS SEARCH

+80% INCREASE IN

PROGRAMMATIC ADSPEND

2017 vs 2015 CENTRAL &

WESTERN EUROPE. %

DISPLAY 2017 =61.3

MOBILE = 87% ADSPEND GROWTH TO

2018

WE TEND TO OVERESTIMATE

THE EFFECT OF A

TECHNOLOGY IN THE SHORT

RUN AND UNDERESTIMATE THE

EFFECT IN THE LONG RUN.

B Y R O Y A M A R A , PA S T

P R E S I D E N T O F T H E I N S T I T U T E

F O R T H E F U T U R E


THE YEAR OF THE MOBILE LASTED A LONG TIME


PREDICTING THE MOBILE FUTURE

DATA ACTIVITY TIME


3 QUESTIONS TO DETERMINE YOUR MOBILE GENIUS

SOURCE: CISCO 3RD FEBRUARY 2016 © 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.

GET OUT YOUR PHONES OR TABLET

LOG ON TO KAHOOT.IT NOW


https://create.kahoot.it/

https://play.kahoot.it/#/lobby?quizId=b83a72fb-201f-4b6c-aab3-2b5adee71929

IT’S ABOUT THE FUTURE NOT THE PAST

+827%

SOURCE: CISCO 3RD FEBRUARY 2016 © 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.


DATA ACTIVITY TIME



50%+ WEBPAGE TRAFFIC FROM PHONE OR

TABLET

SOURCE: GOOGLE 2016 AUTOMOTIVE SEARCH VIA (PHONE & TABLET) / FORECAST ZENITHOPTIMEDIA ESTIMATE)

SEARCH IS ALREADY MOBILE

% G O O G L E S E A R C H E S V I A M O B I L E Q4 2015

58%

A U T O M O T I V E

58%

C O N S U M E R

E L E C T R O N I C S

62%

F O O D &

G R O C E R I E S

47%

I N S U R A N C E

50%

I N T E R N E T &

T E L E C O M


SOURCE: GOOGLE 2016 AUTOMOTIVE SEARCH VIA (PHONE & TABLET) / FORECAST ZENITHOPTIMEDIA ESTIMATE)

SEARCH IS ALREADY MOBILE

% G O O G L E S E A R C H E S V I A M O B I L E Q4 2018

69% 74% 74%

56%

78%

AUTOMOTIVE CONSUMER

ELECTRONIC

S

FOOD &

GROCERIES INSURANCE

INTERNET &

TELECOM


IT’S ALL ABOUT APPS…

EXCLUDES APPS PUBLISHED BY OEMS

EXCLUDES PRE-INSTALLED APPS PUBLISHED BY APPLE

ANDROID IOS

WORLDWIDE (EXCLUDING CHINA), FEBRUARY 14 - FEBRUARY 20, 2016

T O P A P P S B Y W E E K LY A C T I V E U S E R S

APPS PER DAY 13

Facebook 4/15

Google

5/15

1. 2. 3.

4. 5. 6.

7. 8. 9.

10. 11. 12.

13. 14. 15.

1. 2. 3.

4. 5. 6.

7. 8. 9.

10. 11. 12.

13. 14. 15.

SOURCE: © 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.

IN THREE YEARS,

SOCIAL WILL BE A

‘MOBILE’ MEDIUM.

ZENITH

‘ALWAYS ON’

SEPT 2009

Q 3 2 0 0 9 M O B I L L E

P A G E V I E W S

Q 3 2 0 0 6 M O B I L L E

P A G E V I E W S

VS


MOBILE GAMING – JAPAN & KOREA


KENYA – MOBILE PAYMENTS


CHINA – MESSAGING



DATA ACTIVITY TIME


WHY INTERNET T IME ON MOBILE PHONE IS IMPORTANT


SOURCE: GWI FEBRUARY 2016

52%



DATA ACTIVITY TIME


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