forecast scheduling: fad or fundamental? president projectpro corp. specializes in microsoft...
TRANSCRIPT
Anaheim, CA | February 2-5, 2014
Eric Uyttewaal, PMP, MVP ProjectPresident ProjectPro Corp.
Forecast Scheduling: Fad or Fundamental?
PC309
President ProjectPro Corp.
Specializes in Microsoft Project and Project Server
Presenter Intro: Eric Uyttewaal, PMP
BS Engineering MS Business Administration
Author “Forecast Scheduling with Project 2013” and “Forecast Scheduling with Project 2010”
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 613-692-7778
Agenda ‘Forecast Scheduling’• Capture your promises without killing the
forecast model• Minimize your effort on scheduling• Find the real Critical Path (Critical Path
2.0)• Update the schedule to forecast
© ProjectPro Corp.
Chapters in the Book 'Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2013'
Concepts
Introduction
WBS
Estimates
Dependencies
Deadlines
Resources
Assignments
Optimal Schedule
Reports
Up-to-date Schedule
Acceptance
Setup
Planning ExecutingInitiating Closing
Summary
Project ‘Office Relocation’
What is a Project ‘Schedule’?
Project Deliverables Due DateRequirements document Aug 12New Location Aug 30Remodeling Contract Sep 14Remodeled New Location Nov 10Move to New Location Nov 22
A Schedule is a list of things to be created in the project and their due dates.
© ProjectPro Corp.
QuestionDo you treat your project schedule as:
A. The list of things to be created in the project and their due dates?
B. A dynamic model to manage the creation of the things?
static, deterministic schedule
dynamic, forecast schedule
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Roofframesheetshingleroof ready
Patient – Project Metaphor
Roofframesheetshingleroof ready
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Forecast Scheduling: What Is It?• Forecast scheduling is an approach to
scheduling that requires the schedule by itself to produce accurate forecasts continuously.
• A “Schedule” is a model of the project to forecast it.
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What is a Great Schedule?
• Valid: Schedule that reliably produces accurate forecasts
• Dynamic: A schedule that updates itself as much as possible
• Robust: A model that responds well to a variety of changes
• Model: A deliberate and smart simplification of the reality
A Great Schedule is a Valid, Dynamic and Robust Model of the Project to Forecast it!
© ProjectPro Corp.
Question: Promised Dates
Do you tend to enter dates in Start or Finish columns in MS Project?
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Scheduling Software• What needs to be done?• How long will it take?• In which causal order?• When should it be done?• Who is going to do it?• When will it happen?• How much will it cost?
• Deliverables and Tasks• Duration or Work Estimates• Dependencies• Deadlines, Constraints, Calendars
Baseline• Resources & Assignments• Start and Finish dates • Rate * Assignment Effort
© ProjectPro Corp.
DEMO Deadlines
DEMO 0A Entering Dates into MS Project.mpp
• What happens when you enter Start & Finish dates?• Deadlines versus constraints
What To Do with Dates You Promised?• Capture them right away: Deadline
dates• Optimize the schedule to within the Deadline dates
Capture your promises without killing the forecast model!
© ProjectPro Corp.
CHAPTER 3 WBS: Minimize your Scheduling Effort
Concepts
Introduction
WBS
Estimates
Dependencies
Deadlines
Resources
Assignments
Optimal Schedule
Reports
Up-to-date Schedule
Acceptance
Setup
Planning ExecutingInitiating Closing
Summary
© ProjectPro Corp.
Keep the WBS Lean: Deliverables!
Airframe Propulsion Test Reports Support
Aircraft
Nav./Comm.
Fuselage
Wings
Landing Gear
Engines
Radios
Flight Controls Artifacts
Trained staff
Navigation Sys.Fuel System
Wing JetsTail Jet
Fire ControlFuel LinesFuel Tanks
Voice/Comm.Transponder
ProcessorsDisplays
GPS Recvr.Radar
SparesEquipmentCockpit
Nose GearMain Gear
Center Sect.
Nose Barrel
Tail
Inner WingOuter Wing
Aft Section
Wind Tunnel Test
Flight Test
Ground Test
StructuralIntegration Simulators
Maintenance
Manuals
Budget
AerodynamicsPerformance
First flightPerformance
Project Mgt.
Schedule
© ProjectPro Corp.
Activities: What is The Right Level of Detail?
Too little detail ?
Too much detail ?
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The 1% - 10% Rule• Durations of detail tasks should be
at least 1% of the project duration, and at most 10%
• Example: 3 month project:60 business days1% = 0.6 days rounded to 0.5 days
10% = 6 days rounded to 5 days
© ProjectPro Corp.
CHAPTER 5 Dependencies: Minimize your Scheduling Effort
Concepts
Introduction
WBS
Estimates
Dependencies
Deadlines
Resources
Assignments
Optimal Schedule
Reports
Up-to-date Schedule
Acceptance
Setup
Planning ExecutingInitiating Closing
Summary
© ProjectPro Corp.
The Principle of Dynamic Scheduling
Time
WBS
If one thing changes in your project, you have to change only one field in the model!
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Prepare for exam
Take the exam
Choosing the Right Type of Dependency
FS
Prepare for exam
Take the exam
SF
Which is the best model of the situation: A or B?
A
B
© ProjectPro Corp.
What are Dependencies?
write
F
S
FS DependencyPredecessor
Successor
prepare for exam
take examSF Dependency
Successor
Predecessor
Dependent
Driver
© ProjectPro Corp.
Expected Gains from Dynamic Schedules
Single, Static Chart:• Make 5 changes in
once: 180/5=36 revisions
• Revise rest of the schedule: avg. 50 tasks
• 2 hours per revisionTotal: 36*2=72 hours
Dynamic Model:• 8 hours to set
dependencies• 8 hours to enter 180
changes
Total: 16 hours
Project: 100 tasks, 3 month duration, 180 expected changes: update 100 tasks, 30 twice, 50 other changes
Difference: 56 hours!© ProjectPro Corp.
DEMO Complete and Correct Network Logic: ProjectPro Forecast Scheduling App
DEMO 0B Forecast Scheduling - SW Dev v5 mpp - report v5.mppNetwork logic checks 5.X
CHAPTER 7 Resources: Minimize your Effort
Concepts
Introduction
WBS
Estimates
Dependencies
Deadlines
Resources
Assignments
Optimal Schedule
Reports
Up-to-date Schedule
Acceptance
Setup
Planning ExecutingInitiating Closing
Summary
© ProjectPro Corp.
Resources: Minimize your EffortOption A: named resourcesResource Name Max UnitsTom 100%Dick 100%Harry 100%
Resource Name Max UnitsVisual Basic Programmers 300%
Option B: generic resources
© ProjectPro Corp.
CHAPTER 9: Find the real Critical Path
Concepts
Introduction
WBS
Estimates
Dependencies
Deadlines
Resources
Assignments
Optimal Schedule
Reports
Up-to-date Schedule
Acceptance
Setup
Planning ExecutingInitiating Closing
Summary
© ProjectPro Corp.
Critical Path 1.0 Definition
“Task is critical when total slack <=0” leads to:• Critical Path 1.0 displays too many critical
tasks:
Parts of the Critical Path
• Critical Path 1.0 displays too few critical tasks:
© ProjectPro Corp.
OVERVIEW: Critical Path 1.0 Displays Too Few Critical Tasks: Possible Causes
• Incomplete network logic • Constraint Dates• Elapsed Durations and Elapsed Lags• Resource Calendar: Unavailability of
Resources• Task Calendars• External Predecessors• Workload Leveling
© ProjectPro Corp.
DEMO Incomplete Critical PathUse:
• DEMO 2 Perfect Critical Path.mpp• DEMO 3 Perfect Critical Path destroyed - repaired with
PCCP2.0.mpp
Critical Path 1.0 Definition“The sequence of activities that represents the longest path through a project, which determines the shortest possible duration.”
Source: PMBOK Guide ® (5th Edition, 2013)
© ProjectPro Corp.
Critical Path 2.0 DefinitionThe Critical Path 2.0 is the subset of activities that determines and explains the entire duration and the finish date of the schedule when all schedule data that is entered into the scheduling application is taken into account. There can be multiple Critical Paths that run in parallel in one schedule.
Source: Proceedings of Critical Path 2.0 working group, Jan. 2013
© ProjectPro Corp.
How to Get a Complete Critical Path 2.0?1 of 2
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How to Get a Complete Critical Path 2.0?““ProjectPro Complete Critical Paths” from www.ProjectProCorp.com 2 of 2
© ProjectPro Corp.
Harry 3 D
Harry 2 D
Write X
Write Y
How Leveling Affects the Critical Path 1.0
Harry 3 D
Harry 2 D
Write X
Write Y
leveling
OptimisticForecasts
IncompleteCritical PathHarry 2 D
Harry 3 D
Over-allocated Schedule
Levelled Schedule
© ProjectPro Corp.
Resource Dependencies Differ from Logical DependenciesA logical dependency imposes the sequence:
Harry
Harry
Write X
Write Y
Harry
Harry
Write X
Write Y
Write
OR
A resource dependency does not impose sequence. The relationship is that both tasks share the same resource.
© ProjectPro Corp.
Example of a (Resource) Critical Path 2.0“ProjectPro Complete Critical Paths” from www.ProjectProCorp.com
© ProjectPro Corp.
How to Get a Complete (Resource) Critical Path 2.0?“ProjectPro Complete Critical Paths” from www.ProjectProCorp.com
© ProjectPro Corp.
DEMO Resource-Critical PathUse: DEMO 4 Resource-Critical Path - 09K Intranet Project.mpp
CHAPTER 11: Update to Forecast
Concepts
Introduction
WBS
Estimates
Dependencies
Deadlines
Resources
Assignments
Optimal Schedule
Reports
Up-to-date Schedule
Acceptance
Setup
Planning ExecutingInitiating Closing
Summary
© ProjectPro Corp.
100%Design
Write specs
Code
Status Date
50%
Test unit
Test integration
Develop screens
Write help text
Deploy
75%
Should We MAINTAIN our Baseline Schedules or Not?Minimize your Effort
100%
© ProjectPro Corp.
What Data to Collect? Percent Complete?What does ‘I am at 90% complete ’
mean?• ……………………………………………• ……………………………………………• ……………………………………………• ……………………………………………• ……………………………………………
I am almost finished!I have spent 90% of my estimateI have just figured out how to do itLast week I was at 80%, so it must be 90%Leave me alone; I am crunching!
© ProjectPro Corp.
Recommended Data to Collect
Collect and EnterHave MS Project
calculate
Constructionprojects
Physical % Complete, Actual Start,(Actual) Finish
Actual Duration, Remaining Duration, Earned Value, SV, CV, SPI, CPI and EAC
Non-construction projects
(Actual Start)Actual DurationRemaining DurationOR(Actual Start)Actual WorkRemaining Work
% CompleteDurationFinish
© ProjectPro Corp.
Update the Schedule to Forecast!A. All completed work is scheduled in
the past (to the left of the status date)
B. At each status date review and revise Remaining Durations:• For in-progress tasks (always)• For future tasks (when new insights emerge)
Schedule them in the future (to the right of the status date)
© ProjectPro Corp.
100%Design
Write specs
Code
Status Date
75%
Test unit
Test integration
Develop screens
Write help text
Deploy
60%
Completed Work Scheduled in Past (Visually)
100%
© ProjectPro Corp.
100%Design
Write specs
Code
Status Date
75%
Test unit
Test integration
Develop screens
Write help text
Deploy
60%
Work-still-to-be-completed Scheduled in the Future (Visually)
100%
© ProjectPro Corp.
How to Implement ‘Forecast Scheduling’? Scheduling Maturity
5. Optimal Schedule
4. Accurate Forecasts
3. Reasonable Workloads
2. Complete & Correct Network
1. Clear & Logical WBS
© ProjectPro Corp.
Forecast Scheduling: Key Take-Away’s
• Capture your promises without killing the forecast model:• Capture promised dates as Deadline dates
• Minimize your effort:• Find the right level of detail for activities• Use dependencies to model impact relationships• Consider generic resources• Maintain the Baseline Schedule?
• Find the real Critical Path 2.0:• The most Critical Path or the Resource-Critical Path• Explaining the entire project duration and finish date
• Update to forecast:• Completed work in the past and revised remaining work in future
© ProjectPro Corp.
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© 2014 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.