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Environmental Scan Phase One: The Economy For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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Page 1: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

Environmental Scan Phase One: The Economy

For North Seattle Community CollegeBy Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University

June 6, 2013

Page 2: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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WHICH ECONOMY?REGION DEFINITIONS AND COMPARISONS

Page 3: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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SEATTLE METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA (MSA): Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue/Everett

SEATTLE COMBINED STATISTICAL AREA (CSA): Adds Olympia, Bremerton, Mt. Vernon areas to MSA

PROSPERITY PARTNERSHIP/PUGET SOUND REGIONAL COUNCIL (PSRC) uses “CENTRAL PUGET SOUND”: Snohomish, King, Pierce And Kitsap Counties

THE “REGION”

Page 4: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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SEATTLE MSA/SEATTLE CSA

MSA population 3.5M> 50% stateCSA population 4.2M ~ 2/3 state

Page 5: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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PSRC: REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT2011 EMPLOYMENT, REVISED 2013 (ESD)

Page 6: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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INDUSTRY Washington King County KC Share of State

Government 620,615 175,001 15%

Health Care & Social Assistance 391,899 142,375 36%

Retail Trade 391,312 136,344 35%

Manufacturing 304,320 109,809 36%

Professional/Scientific/Technical Services 296,474 169,616 57%

Accommodation/Food Services 250,796 99,940 40%

Other Services (not Government) 237,080 87,510 37%

Construction 199,048 71,313 36%

Administrative/Support Services 195,217 83,002 43%

Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 186,228 78,773 42%

Financial/Insurance Services 169,410 74,084 44%

Agriculture/Natural Resources 146,095 5,534 4%

Wholesale Trade 136,795 64,711 47%

Information 115,392 85,365 74%

Transportation /Warehousing 115,070 53,805 47%

MAJOR STATE/KING COUNTY INDUSTRY 2013

SOURCES: BLS, ESD, EMSI,

Page 7: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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STATE LEVEL DATA: For perspective

COUNTY LEVEL DATA: For consideration of accessible employment options for students and for partnerships

NSCC CATCHMENT AREA DATA:

DEFINED BY ZIP CODES : 98103, 98105, 98107, 98115, 98117, 98125, 98133, 98177

◦For more immediate access for student/graduate employment, WBL options, partnerships

OUR FOCUS

Page 8: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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THE “REGION” AND EMPLOYMENT

NSCC CONTAINS 19% OF SEATTLE JOBS 9% OF KING COUNTY JOBS

ESD/EMSI

Page 9: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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CHARACTERISTICS OF THE REGION:MORE EARNER-COMMUTERS COME INTO KING COUNTY THAN GO OUT

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Percent of County Earned Income Coming from Residents Working Outside the CountyPercent of Earnings from Jobs in the County Going to Workers Living Outside the County

Page 10: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ECONOMIC CONDITIONSRECESSION and RECOVERY

Page 11: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: THE 2008 RECESSION

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'80

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4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:

Source: ESD, King County Growth Report 2012

Percent Unemployed: Comparing The Two Great Recessions (1980 – 2011)

Page 13: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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'80

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ds

Source: ESD, King County Growth Report 2012

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED (1980- 2011):

REFLECTS GENERAL POPULATION GROWTH SINCE THE 1980s RECESSION

Page 14: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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Resident Civilian Labor Force and EmploymentKing County, 1995-2011

LABOR FORCE

Total Employment

Total Unemployment

Percent Unemployed

1995 915,100 866,300 48,800 5.3%

2000 984,600 944,700 39,900 4.1%

2005 1,012,900 965,300 47,600 4.7%

2006 1,050,000 1,006,000 44,000 4.2%2007 1,069,000 1,030,000 39,000 3.6%2008 1,091,700 1,043,300 48,400 4.4%2009 1,116,000 1,020,100 95,900 8.6%2010 1,107,100 1,006,000 101,100 9.1%

2011 1,105,600 1,016,000 89,600 8.1%

Chart Source: King County Growth Report 2012 from Employment Security Department data. Reports King County residents only.

Page 15: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, MULTIPLE MSAs NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, APRIL 2013

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ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: THE BRIGHT SPOTUNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY COUNTYNOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, APRIL 2013

BLS, MAY 2013

Page 17: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ECONOMIC CONDITIONSUNEMPLOYMENT RATES KING COUNTY 2011-2013

SOURCE: EMPLOYMENT SECURITY MAY 2013

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ELEMENTS OF RECOVERY:EFFECTS OF TRADE ON WASHINGTON STATE

In 2011, export of Washington-originated products rose 21% to a new high of $64.6 billion

Approximately 8.7% of Washington State’s private sector jobs are linked to export manufacturing

Page 19: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ELEMENTS OF RECOVERY

The largest manufacturing sector is Aerospace, which employs 98,000 people statewide (2013),

94,000 in the MSA (45,000 in Seattle)

7,500 engineers in the MSA (15.6% growth since 2010) Average Median Hourly Wage $47.77

4,100 machinists in the MSA (26% growth since 2010) Average Median Hourly Wage $24.04

NOTE: Aerospace growth

since 2008:•41% Snohomish•15% Pierce•0% King County

Page 20: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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AEROSPACE The Boeing Company alone provided 16.4% of

the state economy in 2011 ($27.1 billion)

The aerospace industry includes a cluster of 650 smaller companies

In 2011, The Boeing Company’s global exports rebounded, up 16.4% from 2010, almost to the all-time high of 2007

Page 21: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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AS AEROSPACE GOES, SO GO OUR EXPORTS

SOURCE: A. CASSEY, RECESSION: EXPORT TRENDS WASHINGTON 2010

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NOT ALL EXPORTS DECLINED BUT THEIR TOTAL VALUE TO IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN AEROSPACE

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Page 24: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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Manufacturing Sectors (MSA)

Employment 2012

Growth to 2017

Growth to 2022

Transportation Equipment

48,446 -0.7% 7.0%

Computer/ Electronic 8,733 6.3% 25.6%

Fabricated Metal 6,277 11.3% 33.2%

Machinery 5,409 15.2% 22%

Beverage+Food 2,248 6.9% 18.5%

Electrical Equipment 1,405 12.9% 45.7%

MANUFACTURING: ROBUST OUTLOOKMSA 2012

Seattle Jobs Initiative, Understanding King County’s Manufacturing Sector, 2012

Page 25: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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Manufacturing Sectors Percentage of Mid-Level Wage Jobs

Transportation Equipment 52.4%

Computer/ Electronic 14.8%

Fabricated Metal 5.1%

Machinery 5.0%

Beverage+ 6.9%

Electrical Equipment 12.9%

MIDLEVEL-WAGE JOBS IN MANUFACTURING KING COUNTY 2011

Seattle Jobs Initiative, Understanding King County’s Manufacturing Sector, 2012

Page 26: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OR WORKFORCE PLANNING?

THERE’S A DIFFERENCE?

Page 27: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: ◦Key sectors are critical groups of industries

with similar needs and concerns

WORKFORCE PLANNING, add:◦ Current large employers (greatest job

demand)

◦ Economic conditions (hiring? replacing? growing?)

considers employment for a broader range of clients, not just those economic development is targeting

ECONOMIC OR WORKFORCE PLANNING?

Page 28: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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EXAMPLES OF KEY OR TARGETED SECTORS IN KING COUNTY AND PUGET SOUND

KEY/TARGETED SECTORS

International Trade

Innovation Economy

Aerospace/High Tech Manufacturing

Information/Communication Technology

Life Sciences: Health Care, Research, Global Initiatives, Biotechnology

Clean Tech/Energy/Utilities

Page 29: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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Number of full and part-time employees

RELATING INDUSTRY CLUSTERS TO EMPLOYMENT

TARGETED SECTOR 2011 EMPLOYMEN

T

Aerospace 87,301

Clean Technology 26,115

Information Tech 144,196

Life Sciences 28,574

Logistics/Int’l Trade 49,688

Military 91,301

Tourism/Visitors 136,420

Business Services 181,042

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012

Page 30: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY

Generating approximately $25 billion in revenue annually, ICT companies are active in nearly every economic sector, from personal telecommunications to health, manufacturing, and businesses of all types.

Statewide Washington hosts more than 3,000 software companies

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INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY

Software publishing provides 78,393 jobs statewide (70,119 in King County) with average annual income of $175,227

Computer systems contains 24,634 statewide (18,162 in King County) with average annual income of $96,062

Seattle area video game companies generate more than one third of the $10B annual revenue attributed to the game industry nationwide

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Including Health Care, the sector has 390,000 jobs in Washington, 2nd largest employment sector in the state 218,000 Seattle MSA 142,000 King County 23,000 NSCC

LIFE SCIENCES SECTOR

More than two-thirds of the state’s bioscience companies are located in King County

Including almost 300 biotech/pharmaceutical and medical devices/technology firms

King County is also home to 24 of the state’s 36 nonprofit, research or academic organizations serving this sector

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Largest employer in the city is the University of Washington ◦ 17,000 faculty/staff

85% of faculty/staff live in King County◦ 42,454 students (12/2012) in Puget Sound◦ Annual revenue = $4.7B (2012)

◦ Annual grant funding $1.4B (2012)

◦ Annual patient services funding $1.8B (2012)

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF FEDERAL CUTS SEATTLE/KING COUNTY

The University of Washington receives more federal funding for research than any other public university in the United States, and has held the top spot for the last 38 years.

IT IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO CUTS IN HEALTH RESEARCH

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LARGEST EMPLOYERS IN KING COUNTY

Employer Number of Full-TimeEmployees in State

The Boeing Co. 76,452

Microsoft 40,311

University of Washington 27,920

Providence Health and Services 19,091

King County Government 13,382

United States Postal Service 12,367

City of Seattle 10,627

Costco Wholesale Corp 8,224

Group Health Cooperative 8,125

Nordstrom Inc. 7,343

Swedish 7,069

Alaska Air Group 6,253

United Parcel Service 5,554

Quality Food Centers (QFC) 5,479

Virginia Mason Medical Center 5,177

Seattle Public Schools 5,048

Source: Puget Sound Business Journal Book of Lists 2011

Page 35: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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LARGEST INDUSTRIES BY EMPLOYMENTKING COUNTY

SOURCE: EMSINOTE: Projections for several industries

increased in latest ESD reports

Page 36: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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LARGEST INDUSTRIES COMPARING KING/SEATTLE (INDUSTRIES EMPLOYING MORE THAN 20,000)

INDUSTRY KING COUNTY RANK SEATTLE RANKGOVERNMENT 1 1HEALTH CARE/SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 2 3RETAIL TRADE 3 4MANUFACTURING 4 11PROFESSIONAL/SCIENTIFIC/ TECHNICAL 5 2ACCOMMODATION/FOOD SERVICES 6 5OTHER SERVICES (NOT PUBLIC) 7 6INFORMATION 8 13ADMINISTRATIVE+ SERVICES 9 9CONSTRUCTION 10 12WHOLESALE TRADE 11 15TRANSPORTATION/ WAREHOUSING 12 10REAL ESTATE/RENTALS 8FINANCE/INSURANCE 7

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INDUSTRIES BY CURRENT RATE OF GROWTH (2010-13)

INDUSTRY SEATTTLE KING MSA

MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES 22% 22% 19%

EDUC SERVICES PRIVATE 10% 10% 9%

PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL 9% 11% 10%

RETAIL 9% 10% 8%

ACCOMMODATION/FOOD 9% 9% 9%

MFG 7% 7% 13%

TRANSPORT/WAREHOUSE 7% 7% 10%

FINANCIAL/INSURANCE 7% 7% 8%

CONSTRUCTION 6% 6% 6%

HEALTH CARE/SOCIAL 5% 5% 6%

ADMIN, SUPPORT + 5% 6% 7%

INFORMATION 2% 1% 1%

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INDUSTRIES? OR OCCUPATIONS?•Workers are classified into occupational categories based

upon work performed, skills, education, training, and credentials, not directly related to a single industry.

•Two examples of occupations are accountants and auditors and janitors and cleaners.

•Some occupations are found in just one or two industries, but many occupations are found in a large number of industries.

EXAMPLE: HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION SEATTLE 2013

HEALTH PRACTITIONERS/TECHNICIANS 36,386

includes Physicians, EMTsHEALTHCARE SUPPORT 17,152

includes Pharmacy Aides, Medical TranscriptionistsLIFE/PHYSICAL/SOCIAL SCIENCE SERVICES 13,647

includes Biochemists, Nuclear Technicians

Page 39: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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OCCUPATION SEATTLE EMPLOYMENT

Office/Admin Support 105,467

Sales/Related 96,242

Business/Financial Operations 57,746

Food Preparation/Service 57,091

Management 50,319

Transportation/Materials Moving 45,083

Arts, Design, Entertain, Sports, Media 40,003

Personal Care 35,399

Education, Training, Libraries 35,141

Computer/Math 33,695

Building/Grounds Cleaning 25,513

Production 23,763

Install/Maintain/Repair 22,501

Construction 22,371

Architecture/Engineering 15,345

Protective 13,790

Legal 12,246

Community/Social 12,108

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OCCUPATIONS: GROWTH RATES 2010-2013OCCUPATION SEATTLE GROWTH

RATEKING GROWTH

RATE

Office/Admin Support 5% 5%Sales/Related 6% 6%BUSINESS/FINANCIAL OPERATIONS 9% 9%FOOD PREP/SERVICE 9% 9%Management 6% 6%Transport/Materials Moving 6% 7%Arts, Design, Entertain 7% 7%Health Practitioners/Technicians 5% 5%PERSONAL CARE 8% 8%Education, Training, Libraries 6% 5%Computer/Math 9% 7%Production 8% 8%Construction 4% 5%Healthcare Support 6% 7%Architect/Engineering 4% 5%Life/Physical/Social Science 5% 5%

Page 41: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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STAFFING PATTERNS: Occupations commonly employed together

EXAMPLE INDUSTRY: INFORMATION KING COUNTY STAFFING PATTERN INCLUDES:

Software Developers, Applications Software Developers, System Computer Support Specialists+ Computer/Information Systems Managers

(Industry=Management of Companies) Market Research Analysts

(Industry=Professional, Scientific, Technical) Graphic Artists

(Industry=Arts, Entertainment and Recreation)

OCCUPATIONS IN MULTIPLE INDUSTRIES

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ECONOMIC ISSUESBENEFITS? ENTREPRENEUR?

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SOURCE: EMSI

Professional, Scientific, Technical Employees

TOTAL JOBS

CHANGE SINCE 2010

MEDIAN ANNUAL

EARNINGS

COVERED 103,917 UP 13% $104,099

UNCOVERED 5,222 UP 4% $77,882

SELF EMPLOYED 17,616 UP 9% $39,326

TOTAL JOBS

CHANGE SINCE 2010

MEDIAN ANNUAL

EARNINGS

COVERED 79,984 UP 1% $181,599

UNCOVERED 0

SELF EMPLOYED 1,405 DOWN 14% $27,619

Information Occupations

ARE UNCOVERED AND SELF EMPLOYMENT RISING IN KING COUNTY? DOES IT MATTER?

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2013 TOTAL JOBS 2010 - 2013 MEDIAN HOURLY WAGE

LAWYERSCOVERED 6,512 UP 2% $ 54.81 SELF EMPLOYED 2,104 UP 10% $ 34.96

LANDSCAPE/GROUNDSCOVERED 6,453 UP 3% $ 15.78SELF EMPLOYED 2,496 UP 3% $ 7.82

CHILDCARE WORKERSCOVERED 10,893 UP 4% $ 11.08SELF EMPLOYED 3,871 UP 8% $ 7.11

COMPUTER PROGRAMMERSCOVERED 8,842 UP 6% $ 46.47SELF EMPLOYED 486 UP 8% $ 29.70

COMPUTER SUPPORTCOVERED 10,248 UP 8% $ 26.73SELF EMPLOYED 200 UP 4% $ 26.35

Page 45: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:

King County’s remaining unemployed are chiefly from 4 industries. These potentially available workers affect 3 others, too.

SOURCE: BLS, EMSI

Page 46: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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Over the 2010 to 2020 period, occupational projections from the state Employment Security Department have consistently shown that the top three sectors for job openings will be OFFICE AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT

OCCUPATIONS; SALES-RELATED OCCUPATIONS; and FOOD PREPARATION AND SERVING-RELATED

OCCUPATIONS for both the state and the nation

CHANGING CONDITIONS

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That would seem to be good news for entry-level workers, but potentially problematic for increasing high wage employment?

What are Job Openings?◦ Job vacancies: what causes them has

meaning for workforce training. How do they differ from Job Growth?

◦ What about Retirements? Replacements?

CHANGING CONDITIONS

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Only 4 of the top 20 occupations in Washington project that the number of openings due to growth will be larger than that due to replacement.

Of those 4, the largest absolute and relative differences are for computer application software developers, where the number of openings due to growth is 2.8 times larger than number of openings due to replacement.

CHANGING CONDITIONS

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For the other 16 occupations in the top 20, the number of openings due to replacement is greater (in many cases significantly greater) than the number of openings due to growth.

For total state employment projections, about

• 64% of openings are due to replacement and

• 36% due to growth.

CHANGING CONDITIONS

Page 50: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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LOOKING FORWARDCRITICAL ROLE OF EDUCATION

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Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith and Jeff Strohl. Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018, Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2010. p. 5

DIFFERENCES IN LIFETIME EARNINGS BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

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MAJOR SHIFTS IN NATION’S ECONOMY BEGAN IN 1970s

SHIFTS IN THE MIDDLE KEEP INCREASING, PARTICULARLY RISING DEMAND FOR ASSOCIATE’S AND BACHELOR’S DEGREES, AND

CONTINUED LOW DEMAND FOR HIGH SCHOOL ONLY

Carnevale, 2008

Page 53: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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COMMON OFFICE OCCUPATIONSEDUCATION LEVEL OF CURRENT WORKERSKING COUNTY WAGE RATES 2013

SOURCE: EMSI, ESD

Page 54: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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COMMON HEALTH CARE OCCUPATIONSEDUCATION LEVEL OF CURRENT WORKERSKING COUNTY WAGE RATES 2013

SOURCE: EMSI, ESD

Page 55: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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EDUCATION LEVELESTIMATED

EMPLOYMENT IN 2010

AVG. ANNUAL GROWTH

RATE

AVG. ANNUAL

OPENINGS 2010-20

AVG. ANNUAL WAGES

(ESTIMATED 2012)

Bachelors Degree Or Higher 698,146 1.67% 28,574 $81,837

Associate Degree Or Post-secondary Certification

306,129 1.55% 11,450 $62,582

Some College, No Degree, OR High School/GED

1,311,876 1.26% 481,946 $45,559

Less Than High School 880,578 1.21% 38,547 $28,694

SOURCE: Employment Security Department, Labor Market and Economic Analysis, 2012

Page 56: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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IN WASHINGTON, GAINS IN EARNINGS FROM ONE EDUCATIONAL LEVEL TO THE NEXT ARE FAIRLY EVENLY SPREAD

CHANGE IN EDUCATION LEVEL

GAIN IN EARNINGS

LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL TO SOME COLLEGE

$16,865

SOME COLLEGE TO ASSOCIATE DEGREE

$17,294

ASSOCIATE DEGREE TO BACHELOR’S DEGREE

$18,984

Page 57: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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LOOKING FORWARDANALYZING INDUSTRY PROSPECTS: GOING BEYOND RECENT GROWTH

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Leading: Average annual employment growth rate

surpassed average for the county

Slipping: Long-term growth above average, but near-

term below average

Gaining: Long-term below average, but recent above

average

Lagging: Below average in both the near and long term

Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging: Analyzing Industry Sector Vitality

NOTE: the 2010-2011 period was used to indicate rank/rate of growth/total employment

Page 59: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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OVERALL, FOR KING COUNTY INDUSTRIES (2011)

KING COUNTY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE FOR 2011 AVERAGED 1.81%

OVER THE PERIOD 2002-2011, IT AVERAGED .46%

43.8% were leading

23.3% were gaining

20.8% were slipping

11.0% were lagging

Source: WA-REAP

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Thus, for the following slides:

◦ the categories of leading, slipping, gaining and lagging are based on long-term performance from 2002 and short-term 2010-2011

◦ Leading = growing both long-term and short-term◦ Slipping = growing long-term, but not short-term◦ Gaining = little or no long-term growth, but

greater short term growth◦ Lagging = little or no long or short term growth

Page 61: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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INDUSTRY Growth

RANK

Growth RATE (%)

EMPLOYMENT

Management of Companies, includes Securities

2* 5.53 24,366

Educational Services 3 5.22 34,631

Administrative and Waste Services

4 3.48 82,191

Accommodation and Food Services

5 3.13 96,666

Professional and Technical Services

6 3.11 156,799

Other Services, not Public Admin. 9 2.42 72,426

Healthcare and Social Assistance 11 2.19 139,905

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

13 2.04 43,088

LEADING BY HIGHEST 1-YEAR GROWTH

Source: WA-REAP

Leading industries not included because of low overall employment: Example Mining: growth rate 9.71% (#1) but total employment 1,571

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INDUSTRY Growth RANK

Growth RATE %

EMPLOYMENT

Information and Communication Technology

15 1.68 85,727

Real Estate and Rental/Leasing 17 0.57 76,959

State Government 18 -0.19 58,125

Local Government 19 -0.38 89,099

SLIPPING INDUSTRIES FOR 2011

Source: WA-REAP

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INDUSTRY Growth RANK

Growth RATE %

Employment

Finance and Insurance 7 2.59 73,454

Manufacturing 8 2.45 106,672

Transportation and Warehousing 12 2.17 51,936

Retail Trade 14 1.99 130,482

GAINING INDUSTRIES FOR 2011

Source: WA-REAP

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INDUSTRY Growth RANK

Growth RATE %

EMPLOYMENT

Wholesale Trade 16 1.21 65,842

Construction 20 -2.47 64,610

Forestry, Fishing and Related 21 -2.51 3,109

Farm Employment 22 -2.73 2,385

Federal Civilian 23 -3.46 21,221

Federal Military 24 -5.10 7,188

LAGGING INDUSTRIES FOR 2011

Source: WA-REAP

Page 65: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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A RISING REGIONAL INDUSTRY: MANAGEMENTOF COMPANIES

OCCUPATION # EMPLOYED IN 2013

CHANGE FROM 2010

WAGE $

Software Developers 1285 15% 47.58

Accountants/Auditors 1101 18% 31.50

Marketing/Sales Mgrs 991 30% 56.98

Bookkeeping/Acct’g Clerk 974 21% 19.71

Misc Bus Ops Specialists 959 22% 34.18

Financial Managers 834 21% 49.39

Secretaries/Admin Ass’ts 826 22% 21.66

Customer Service Reps 775 25% 17.95

General/Operations Mgrs 681 26% 58.65

Computer Info Analysts 655 20% 41.82

Buyers/Purchasing Agents

639 20% 30.99

Page 66: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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NSCC CATCHMENT AREA

ZIP CODES 98103, 98105, 98107, 98115, 98117, 98125, 98133, 98177

Page 67: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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STRONG JOB GROWTH IN LOCAL AREA

NSCC Catchment King County State of Washington

7.5%

6.2%

4.8%

COMPARATIVE 2010 - 13 JOB GROWTH

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Healthcare and Social Assistance

Retail Trade

Accommodation and Food Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Other Services (not government)

Construction

Manufacturing

GovernmentAdministrative/Support/Waste/Remediation

ServicesInformation

Educational Services (private)

Arts/Entertainment/Recreation

Wholesale Trade

Finance/Insurance

Real Estate/Rentals/Leasing

Transportation/Warehousing

19,200

17,885

12,154

7,095

7,089

5,068

4,971

4,689

4,689

4,279

2,877

2,446

2,389

1,952

1,858

1,048

NSCC REGION: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRIES

SOURCE: EMSI, 2013 COVERED EMPLOYMENT

Page 69: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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NSCC TOP FIVE INDUSTRIES BY EMPLOYMENT WITH MEDIAN ANNUAL WAGES

Page 70: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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THE NEXT FIVE

Page 71: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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NSCC HEALTH RELATED OCCUPATIONS  

2013 Total

Added 2010-13

Rate of Growth

Median Hourly

Registered Nurses 2,850 167 6% $38.95

Nursing & Home Health Aides 1,881 134 8% $13.64

Massage Therapists 231 48 26% $27.92

Diagnostic Technicians 431 27 7% $34.92

Medical Records/Health Information Techs 247 11 5% $18.08

Licensed Practical Nurse 373 11 3% $25.02

Physicians Assistants 124 8 7% $50.02

Dietitians/Nutritionists 44 4 10% $29.56 Emergency Medical/Paramedics 62 4 7% $34.92

Clinical Lab Technicians 278 -2 -1% $26.73

NSCC LARGEST INDUSTRY (HEALTH CARE) BY OCCUPATION

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2013 TOTAL

Added 2010-13

Median Hourly

Retail Salesperson 5,980 466 $ 12.37

Cashiers 3,207 234 $ 11.51

Counter/Rental Clerks 727 1 $ 14.20

1st line Supervisor Sales Workers 1,460 101 $ 23.58

1st Line Supervisors Food Preparers/Servers 693 71 $ 18.36

1st Line Supervisors Housekeeping/Janitorial 78 -2 $ 18.89

Food Service Managers 244 9 $ 42.18

Cooks, Institutional 196 22 $ 15.40

Chefs/Head Cooks 138 7 $ 19.47

EXAMPLES FROM RETAIL TRADE AND ACCOMMODATION/FOOD SERVICES

Page 73: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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2011 COMPLETIONS: NSCCCOMPUTER OCCUPATIONS

PROGRAM AWARD COMPLETIONS

Computer GraphicsAward of less than 1

academic year48

Computer Systems Networking and

TelecommunicationsAssociates degree 13

Network and System Administration/Administrator

Award of less than 1 academic year

9

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources

DesignAssociates degree 7

Computer Graphics Associates degree 7

Computer Systems Networking and

Telecommunications

Award of less than 1 academic year

2

Computer Systems Networking and

Telecommunications

Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic

years1

  Total 87

SOURCE: IPEDS

Page 74: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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A SAMPLE OCCUPATIONAL ANALYSIS

REGISTERED NURSES

Page 75: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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COMPARATIVE GROWTH IN RN DEMAND 2010 -13

NSCC R

egion

King

Cou

nty

Pier

ce-K

ing-

Snoh

omish

Stat

e of

Was

hing

ton

6.3%

5.4%4.7%

3.2%

Page 76: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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WHERE ARE RNs WORKING?

Hospitals, private

Ambulatory Care

Residential Care

Federal, civilian

State

Admin/Support Services

Other

31%

7%

6%

2%

2%

1%

1%

INDUSTRIES EMPLOYING REGISTERED NURSES

NSCC REGION 2013

Page 77: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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WHERE ARE RNs WORKING?

GIS by EMSI

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RNs: DIFFERENCE IN REGIONAL DEMAND

A NSCC Catchment

B King County

C State

DPierce-Snohomish-King

Page 79: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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A NSCC Catchment

B King County

C State

DPierce-Snohomish-King

RNs FORECAST: CONTINUED GROWTH

FORECAST OF COVERED EMPLOYMENT by EMSI

Page 80: For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

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OCCUPATIONS IN INDUSTRIESEXAMPLE CONTINUED

REGISTERED NURSESEmployed in King County (2013): 20,207Employed in State (2013): 56,167 Growth rate King County 2010-2013: 5.1%Growth rate State 2010-2013: 3.8%Expected openings King County 2013: 875

EDUCATIONAL PROFILE: Bachelor’s Degree: 43%Associate’s Degree: 37%

WHERE EMPLOYED (KING COUNTY):General Medical/Surgical Hospitals: 42%Public Hospitals: 16%Physicians Offices: 8%Temporary Employment Services: 4%