for model users group june 10, 2011 kyeil kim, ph.d., ptp atlanta regional commission
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
For Model Users GroupJune 10, 2011
Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP
Atlanta Regional Commission
![Page 2: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Today’s MenuOverall features of ARC’s Activity-Based Model
(ABM)ABM Visualization Software, ABMVIZQuality Assurance/Quality Control of ABM
![Page 3: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Daily Travel
• Trip-Based Model - Home-Work: 2 trips - Work-Eat: 2 trips - Home-Gym: 2 trips
• Activity-Based Model - Follows daily activity patterns (departure time, duration, location, frequency, mode)
![Page 4: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What is Activity-Based Model?ABM aims at predicting which activities are
conducted where, when, for how long, with whom, the transportation mode involved and ideally also the implied route decisions
Disaggregate, Micro-simulation, Behavioral, Tour-based
ABM reflects the scheduling of activities in time and space
![Page 5: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Structure of ARC Models: TBM vs. ABM
Trip GenerationTrip
DistributionMode Choice
Route Choice
Long-Term
Choices
Daily Activity Patterns
Tour Mode
Choice/Stop
Trip Mode Choice
Synthetic Populatio
n
Trip-Based Model
Activity-Based Model
Demand
Supply
![Page 6: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Population SynthesizerGenerates synthetic population to represent
actual households and populationBase year
Input: Census data (marginal distributions of various household control variables), PUMS
Control variables: householder age, HH size, HH income, presence of children in HH, number of workers in HH
Joint distribution through Frata PUMS 5% sample as seed matrix, control totals from Census
Draws from PUMS households from the joint distribution 1 record/hh and 1 record/person
![Page 7: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Population Synthesizer (cont’d)Forecast year
Input: ARC lane-use forecast, PUMSControl variables: HH size, HH income, householder’
age, number of workers in HHJoint distribution through Frata
Base year distribution as seed matrix, control totals from land-use forecasts
Draws from PUMS households from the joint distribution 1 record/hh and 1 record/person
![Page 8: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Structure of ARC Models: TBM vs. ABM
Trip GenerationTrip
DistributionMode Choice
Route Choice
Long-Term
Choices
Daily Activity Patterns
Tour Mode
Choice/Stop
Trip Mode Choice
Synthetic Populatio
n
Trip-Based Model
Activity-Based Model
Demand
Supply
![Page 9: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Long-Term ChoicesMandatory activity location choice
Work/school/university locations for the synthesized population Work location choice for workers Grade school for persons age 5-12 University for university students
Multinomial logit: [subzones]=[person characteristics, size terms, mc logsums, distance, etc.]
Car ownership modelNumber of vehicles owned by each householdMultinomial logit: [# cars]=[hh size, income, parking
cost, mc logsums, etc.]
![Page 10: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Structure of ARC Models: TBM vs. ABM
Trip GenerationTrip
DistributionMode Choice
Route Choice
Long-Term
Choices
Daily Activity Patterns
Tour Mode
Choice/Stop
Trip Mode Choice
Synthetic Populatio
n
Trip-Based Model
Activity-Based Model
Demand
Supply
![Page 11: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Coordinated Daily Activity PatternGenerates personal DAPs and individual tours by
purpose for all synthesized populationDAPs
Mandatory, Non-mandatory & At-home patternsDecision-making unit: HouseholdsMultinomial logit: [# DAPs]=[person/hh characteristics,
accessibility measures, intra-household interaction terms, etc.]
363 alternatives: 3 (1-p hh), 9 (2-p hh), 27 (3-p hh), 81 (4-p hh), 243 (5-p hh)
![Page 12: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Tour ModelsPredicts the number and purpose of tours for
each person, destinations, and time-of-day choices
Four different toursIndividual Mandatory
Joint Non-Mandatory
Individual Non-Mandatory
At-Work Sub-Tours
Residual Time
![Page 13: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Individual Mandatory TourTour Frequency
Number and purpose of tours for each personMultinomial logit: [# of work/school tour]=[hh
composition, income, car ownership, location of work/school activities, accessibility, etc.]
Tour Time-of-DaySelect the combinations of tour departure/arrival timeMultinomial logit: [combination of tour departure/arrival
hours]=[household and personal characteristics, network LOS variables, etc.]
Alternatives: 190 combinations of tour departure hour and arrival hour back at home
![Page 14: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Joint Non-Mandatory TourJoint tours by household members after mandatory
tours have been generated and scheduledJoint Tour Frequency
Generates the number/purposes of joint toursMultinomial logit: [0, 1 or 2 tours by purpose]=[household
variables, accessibility, overlapping time windows, etc.]
Joint Tour CompositionDetermines the person types participating in the tourMultinomial logit: [combination of adults &
children]=[household characteristics, purpose of joint tour, overlapping time windows]
![Page 15: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Joint Non-Mandatory Tour (cont’d)Joint Tour Primary Destination Choice
Location of the tour primary destinationMultinomial logit: [subzones]=[household/person
characteristics, tour purpose, size variables, mc logsum, distance, etc.]
Joint Tour Time-of-Day ChoiceTour departure time from home and arrival time back at
homeMultinomial logit: [combination of tour departure/arrival
hours]=[household and personal characteristics, network LOS variables, etc.]
Alternatives: 190 combinations of tour departure hour and arrival hour back at home
![Page 16: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Other ToursIndividual Non-Mandatory Tour
Tour FrequencyTour Primary Destination ChoiceTour Time-of-Day Choice
At-Work Sub-TourTour FrequencyTour Primary Destination ChoiceTour Time-of-Day Choice
![Page 17: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Structure of ARC Models: TBM vs. ABM
Trip GenerationTrip
DistributionMode Choice
Route Choice
Long-Term
Choices
Daily Activity Patterns
Tour Mode
Choice/Stop
Trip Mode Choice
Synthetic Populatio
n
Trip-Based Model
Activity-Based Model
Demand
Supply
![Page 18: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Tour Mode ChoiceTour mode choice: main tour mode used from
origin to primary destination and backTwo-level mode choice in ARC ABM
Tour mode level (upper-level choice)Trip mode level (lower-level choice conditional on the
upper-level)
![Page 19: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Tour Mode Choice (cont’d)Tour MC models
Work, University, K-12, Non-mandatory, At-work12 AlternativesNested logit: [tour mode]=[household and personal
characteristics, urban form variables, network LOS variables, etc.]
Use the round-trip LOS between the tour anchor location and the primary destination
![Page 20: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Intermediate Stop ModelsStop Frequency Model
Number of intermediate stops on the way to/from the primary destination by tour purpose
Multinomial logit: [# of stops]=[household and personal characteristics, tour duration, tour distance, accessibility, etc.]
Stop Location Choice ModelLocation of stops along the tour other than the primary
destinationMultinomial logit: [Subzones]=[mc logsum, distance,
size variables, etc.]
![Page 21: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Structure of ARC Models: TBM vs. ABM
Trip GenerationTrip
DistributionMode Choice
Route Choice
Long-Term
Choices
Daily Activity Patterns
Tour Mode
Choice/Stop
Trip Mode Choice
Synthetic Populatio
n
Trip-Based Model
Activity-Based Model
Demand
Supply
![Page 22: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Trip Mode ChoiceDetermines the mode for each trip along the tourConstrained by the main tour modeCorrespondence rules to determine which trip
modes are available for which tour modesE.g., drive-alone pay trip is only available for drive-alone
pay tourE.g., transit tours can include auto shared-ride trips for
particular legs
![Page 23: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Structure of ARC Models: TBM vs. ABM
Trip GenerationTrip
DistributionMode Choice
Route Choice
Long-Term
Choices
Daily Activity Patterns
Tour Mode
Choice/Stop
Trip Mode Choice
Synthetic Populatio
n
Trip-Based Model
Activity-Based Model
Demand
Supply
![Page 24: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Route ChoiceSame routine as the trip-based modelMultimodal User Equilibrium Time-of-Day
AssignmentBi-Conjugate Frank-Wolfe for both TBM and
ABM, departing from the traditional Frank-Wolfe
![Page 25: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Run Environment Java-PackageCube/TP+Three 64-bit Windows machinesEach machine with 32GB of RAMBase year run: approx. 30 hours2040 run:
approx. 50 hours
![Page 26: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
VisualizationModel generates huge databaseModel visualization system, ABMVIZPrimary starting point for most model
analysis questions Interactive/dynamic visualization
of model estimates/resultsSome unique visualization types
Tables, Bar Charts/Maps Time Use Tour Tracing Tree Map Radar Charts
![Page 27: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Quality Assurance/Quality ControlQuality Assurance (QA): a systematic review process
by personnel not directly involved in model developmentQuality Control (QC): a technical routine to control
quality of the model performed in model development
Full understanding of the models’ capabilities/limits
ARC initiated internal a year-long QA/QC process for both ABM and TBM
New QA/QC guidelines
![Page 28: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
QA/QCOverall processes
Reasonableness checking for EVERY modeling stepTemporal validation between base and forecast yearsComparability between ABM and TBM
ComponentsModeling flows/ScriptsSocioeconomic dataTransportation network dataExternal tripsTrip generation, Trip distribution, Mode choice, &
Traffic assignment
![Page 29: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
QA/QC (cont’d)Tools
SQL Express Management StudioSTATAABMVIZCustom scripts
Voyager/TP+ R
Our brain
![Page 30: For Model Users Group June 10, 2011 Kyeil Kim, Ph.D., PTP Atlanta Regional Commission](https://reader037.vdocuments.site/reader037/viewer/2022110403/56649e735503460f94b7320d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Thank You!