foodservice equipment & supplies 2015 industry forecast
TRANSCRIPT
FE&S’
2015 Industry Forecast
October 21, 2014
Review data from FE&S’ 2015 Foodservice Equipment and Supplies Industry Forecast.
Explore the economic issues impacting the foodservice industry with industry experts Hudson Riehle and David Henkes.
Forecast the operating environment for 2015.
Answer your questions.
Today’s Agenda
Meet Our Panelists
David HenkesVice President, TechnomicTwitter: @davidhenkes
Hudson RiehleSr. VP, Research & Knowledge Group
National Restaurant AssociationTwitter: @HudsonRiehle
These slides are from a free webcast from Foodservice Equipment &
Supplies magazine. You may access the free on-demand archive here:
http://www.fesmag.com/forecast2015
THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR
2015 FOODSERVICE
OPERATOR OUTLOOK
Operators’ Anticipated Sales Volume: 2014 vs. 2013
Increase55%
Stay the same32%
Decrease13% Net growth rate:
2014: +2.74%
2013: +3.50%
2012: +3.37%
2011: +2.20%
Comm. Non-comm
Increase 58% 51%
Same 26% 38%
Decrease 16% 11%
2014 Sales Volume by Market
Sector
Operator Gross Profits for 2014
Increase41%
Stay the same37%
Decrease22%
Net growth rate
Gross Profit:
2014: +0.9%
2013: +0.8%
2012: +0.7%
2011: +0.1%
Comm Non-comm
Increase 52% 29%
Same 21% 54%
Decrease 27% 17%
2014 Change by Market Sector
Increases in gross profit continues in a positive direction at a conservative pace.
Gross Profit Growth Trend (6 Years)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Increase Remain the Same Decrease
Anticipated Operator Sales Growth for 2015
Increase55%
Stay the same32%
Decrease 11%Net projected growth rate
2014: + 2.74%
Comm Non-comm
Increase 67% 41%
Same 17% 47%
Decrease 16% 12%
2015 Growth by Market Sector
About 20% more operators anticipate sales growth in 2015 than they did at this time in
2014.
Operators’ Anticipated Gross Profit for 2015
Increase35%
Stay the same43%
Decrease22%
Net growth rate 2015
Gross Profit: + .71%
Comm Non-comm
Increase 46% 26%
Same 26% 57%
Decrease 28% 17%
2015 Gross Profit Growth by Market Sector
Operators anticipate conservative gross profit growth for 2015 although there are many
factors that could derail growth such as rising food costs, increasing labor costs and
unexpected changes in the economy.
OPERATOR PURCHASING
BEHAVIORS
Activity Planned for 2015
19%
22%
26%
29%
30%
62%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
None of these
New Construction
Kitchen Renovation
Dining room Renovation
Dining room Replacements
Kitchen Equipment Replacement
There are no significant changes from 2014 in the anticipated types of equipment purchases
for 2015.
Percent of 2015 E&S Budget by Activity Type
New Construction
13%
Renovations21%
Replacements59%
Green or Sustainable Initiatives
7%
Comm Non-comm
New
Construction 18% 5%
Renovation 22% 19%
Replacement 54% 69%
Green 6% 7%
2015 E&S Budget by Market Sector
Operators’ 2015 E&S Budgets
Increase39%
Reamin the same
42%
Decrease19%
52%
24%
17%
7%
$2.5 million ormore
$500K-$2.49million
$100-$499.9K
Under $100K
2015 E&S Budget Growth
Projected Net Growth Rate 2015 = 1.64%
2015 E&S Budget
Comm Non-comm
Increase 49% 28%
Same 29% 55%
Decrease 22% 17%
Percent of E&S Budget – Product Categories
9.4% 9.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.8%
14.8% 14.9% 16.2% 17.1% 14.2%
5.8% 4.4% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%
4.9% 4.1% 5.0% 4.0% 3.4%
11.3%10.4% 10.0% 11.8%
11.5%
5.7%4.7% 4.5% 6.0%
6.3%
7.2%8.0% 8.3%
8.0%6.8%
8.6%9.8%
12.4% 9.6%11.2%
5.1%5.0%
5.5% 5.7%4.6%
9.0% 11.6%11.9% 10.9%
10.8%
18.2% 17.9%13.6% 14.9% 17.6% Primary Cooking
Eqpt
Refrigeration
Warewashing/Safety
Food Prep Eqpt.
Serving Eqpt.
Storage & HandlingEqpt.
Smallwares
Tabletop Items
Furnishings
Paper Goods/Disposables
Jan/San Supplies
2013 2012 201120142015
Percent of 2015 E&S Budget – Market Sector
5.5%11.8%
7.9%
21.9%10.5%
2.8%
7.8%
3.2%12.8%
10.1%5.9%
5.7%5.2%
7.7%10.1%
7.6%3.5%
6.3%9.5%
7.6%
21.3%15.3% Primary Cooking
Eqpt
Refrigeration
Warewashing/Safety
Food Prep Eqpt.
Serving Eqpt.
Storage & HandlingEqpt.
Smallwares
Tabletop Items
Furnishings
Paper Goods/Disposables
Jan/San Supplies
Commercial Non-commercial
Percent of Operator E&S Purchases by Channel
Traditional E&S Dealers
30%
Broadline Distributors
16%Direct from Manufacturer
13%
Cash & Carry5%
On-line Catalog House
4%
Specialty Distributor
14%
Club Store1%
Buying Group10%
Other7%
Operator E&S Purchases Made Online
None27%
1-5%19%
6-15%10%
16-25%20%
More than 25%24%
Average = 25.5%
Commercial = 20.5%
Non-commercial = 29.7%
DEALER OUTLOOK FOR 2015
Dealers Anticipated Sales Volume: 2014 vs. 2013
Increase62%
Stay the same30%
Decrease8%
Trend:
(% Increase)
2014: 62%
2013: 75%
2012: 53%
2011: 61%
Net growth rate: :
2014: +5.17%
2013: +5.38%
2012: +4.20%
Product Categories Driving Dealers’ 2014 Sales Growth
2%
6%
11%
18%
22%
33%
33%34%
39%
56%
67%
83%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Janitorial/Sanitation
Paper Goods/Disposables
Tabletop Items
Furnishings
Serving Eqpt
Warewashing/Safety Eqpt
Smallwares
Storage & Handling Eqpt
Food Prep Eqpt
Primary Cooking Eqpt
Refrigeration/Ice Machines
Growth of 2014 E&S Sales Gross Profit
Increase37%
Stay the same48%
Decrease15%
Net growth rate
Gross Profit:
2014: +1.24%
2013: +1.80%
2012: +3.76%
Gross profits remained positive in 2014 but were more modest than in 2013.
Dealers Anticipated Sales for 2015
Increase65%
Stay the same28%
Decrease7%
Net projected growth
rate 2015: + 4.86%
Dealers project continued growth for 2015 at a net
growth rate similar to 2014.
Dealers Amount of Business Booked for Next
Fiscal Year Compared to This Time Last Year
More52%
Same31%
Less17%
Net rate ahead of last
year:
2014: +4.07%
2013: +3.80%
2012: +2.41%Trend:
(% More)
2014: 52%
2013: 46%
2012: 49%
2011: 45%
2010: 34%
Percent of Sales by Product Category
2.46%2.33%3.41%
6.73%
10.75%
4.48%
4.50%
9.12%
4.98%
26.14%
25.10%
Primary CookingEqpt
Refrigeration/ IceMachines
Warewashing/Safety Eqpt
Food Prep Eqpt
Serving Eqpt
Storage &Handling Eqpt
Smallwares
Tabletop Items
Furnishings
Paper Goods/Disposables
Janitorial/Sanitation
2.13%2.17%3.11%
6.55%
9.81%
4.70%
5.16%
10.74%
5.37%
26.97%
23.29%
Primary CookingEqpt
Refrigeration/ IceMachines
Warewashing/Safety Eqpt
Food Prep Eqpt
Serving Eqpt
Storage &Handling Eqpt
Smallwares
Tabletop Items
Furnishings
Paper Goods/Disposables
Janitorial/Sanitation
2014 Projected for 2015
Product Categories That Will Drive 2015 Sales Growth
1%
11%16%
16%
26%
32%
32%
42%
47%
58%
63%
89%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other
Janitorial/Sanitation
Paper Goods/Disposables
Furnishings
Tabletop Items
Storage & Handling Eqpt
Warewashing/Safety Eqpt
Smallwares
Serving Eqpt
Food Prep Eqpt
Primary Cooking Eqpt
Refrigeration/Ice…
QUESTIONS FOR OUR
PANELISTS
Assessing the foodservice
industry’s performance thus
far in 2014.
Recapping 2014 – Technomic’s Take:Year got off to a slow start due to the weather.
Growth has been slow but steady since then.Overall industry achieved approximately 3%
nominal growth, or flat in real termsStill a lot of need for innovation
FE&S 2015 Equipment and Supplies Forecast
Reasons for Optimism
1. Economy declined 2.1% in the first quarter but has since rebounded to post increases in excess of 3%
2. Number of jobs finally caught up to pre-recession levels
3. Consumer confidence is at its highest level in 7 years
FE&S 2015 Equipment and Supplies Forecast
Restaurant Industry’s Share
of the Food Dollar
1955
Present
1955: 25% 2014: 47%
Source: National Restaurant Association
How have operators’
concerns changed as the
business climate has evolved?
Top Challenges Facing Operators
AUGUST 2014
Food Costs 29%
Government 16
The Economy 16
Recruiting Employees 9
Sales Volume 8
AUGUST 2012
The Economy 28%
Food Costs 20
Government 14
Sales Volume 12
Recruiting Employees 5
AUGUST 2013
Government 24%
The Economy 19
Sales Volume 18
Food Costs 16
Recruiting Employees 6
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Industry Tracking Survey
How stable is the foodservice
industry heading into 2015?
Contributing factors to the industry’s stability:The restaurant industry is pretty mature, which
leads to stabilityEating out is in the consumers’ DNAWeathered the recession wellIndustry growth will take off once the middle and
lower classes get stronger
FE&S’ 2015 Equipment and Supplies Forecast
What will 2015 look like for
the foodservice industry?
2015 Preliminary U.S. Economic Outlook
Gradual Improvement
INDICATOR 2014 2015
Real Gross Domestic Product 2.1% 3.0%
Real Disposable Personal Income 2.6% 2.8%
Consumer Price Index 1.7% 2.0%
Source: National Restaurant Association, projections as of October 2014
Technomic’s take:2015 will see overall foodservice industry sales
grow by 3.1% nominally or 1.2% in real termsSlightly better economic environment for the U.S.
should benefit the foodservice industryBut restaurants remain in a take-share market
FE&S’ 2015 Equipment and Supplies Forecast
Technomic’s projected growth rate by segment:
Limited-service restaurants will grow by 3.5% in 2014 and 3% in 2015
Full-service restaurants will grow by 2.5% in 2014 and 3% in 2015
Bars and taverns will grow by 2.5 percent in 2014 and 2015
In other words, restaurants will be in a take-share mode in 2015.
FE&S’ 2015 Equipment and Supplies Forecast
How are consumers’ spending
habits changing?
Many factors impact consumers’ approach1. Consumers’ outlook varies by location and
other demographics2. As a percent of consumers’ budget, food
ranks third behind housing and transportation. Insurance/pensions starting to creep up the list, too.
3. It’s best to examine consumer behavior on a segment by segment basis.
FE&S’ 2015 Equipment and Supplies Forecast
Any concerns heading into
2015?
Three reasons for concern heading into 2015:
1. Wholesale food prices on pace for fastest growth in three years
2. Although moderate, menu price growth outpacing other segments like grocery
3. Job creation still slower than previous recoveries
FE&S’ 2015 Equipment and Supplies Forecast
Questions?
©2011 Foodservice Equipment & Supplies – 2012 Industry Forecast
Due to a slow start, overall restaurant industry sales will be flat in 2014
2015 will bring better real growth but the industry will remain in take-share mode
Consumers’ approach will vary considerably depending on their location, age group and more
Key Takeaways
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©2011 Foodservice Equipment & Supplies – 2012 Industry Forecast
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