Food Security Update

6 November 2013

Better Prepared And Ready to Help

Emergency Preparedness Mission Nepal February 2011

Main sources of cereal consumed in rural communities

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Oct2013 2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

5360

53

36

26

38

56

62

74

64

5

9 9

88

7

12

2621 25

4

7 717

9

58

71

58

30

19

4 3

Main source of cereal consumed

other

grain loan scheme

in-kind food assistance

barter trade

farmer to farmer purchases

purchase from private trader/retailer

own produce

% o

f com

mun

ity

resp

onse

s

Better Prepared And Ready to Help

Emergency Preparedness Mission Nepal February 2011

Cereal Availability• Own produced HH cereal stocks low/

depleted in food insecure areas

• Purchases main source in most cereal deficit areas: demand high & increasing

• Availability on most markets is good (grain in N. districts, m/meal in the S.)

• Source areas – more distant, dwindling stocks

• Govt - Grain Loan Scheme & cash transfers (few districts, low coverage)

• WFP FFA, H&N, WFP & CC STA programmes

Better Prepared And Ready to Help

Emergency Preparedness Mission Nepal February 2011

Cereal Prices• Cereal prices: increasing since

June; higher than last year

• Maize price: Oct 2013 ($0.43/kg) 5% higher than Spt ($0.41/kg); 26% higher than Oct 2012 ($0.34/kg);

• Unrefined maize meal: Oct 2013 rural average $0.63/kg, 15% higher than Oct 2012 ($0.55/kg); 47% higher than average maize grain price (southern districts worst affected)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r M

ayJu

ne July

Aug

Sept

Oct

N

ovDe

c Ja

nFe

b M

ar

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sept

Oct

2012 2013

0.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70

Average rural cereal prices

maize grain maize meal

Pric

e pe

r kilo

gram

in U

S$

Better Prepared And Ready to Help

Emergency Preparedness Mission Nepal February 2011

Average rural maize grain prices – Oct 2013

Average rural maize grain prices by province – October 2013

Province

Price per kilogram in $

Minimum MaximumAverage Oct

2013AverageOct 2012

% change

Manicaland 0.29 0.46 0.39 0.33 18

Mash Central 0.34 0.40 0.37 0.24 54

Mash East 0.34 0.51 0.44 0.34 29

Mash West 0.29 0.34 0.30 0.30 0

Masvingo 0.40 0.46 0.45 0.36 25

Mat North 0.40 0.57 0.51 0.33 55

Mat South 0.40 0.51 0.46 0.46 0

Midlands 0.29 0.57 0.45 0.34 32

National 0.29 0.57 0.43 0.34 26

Better Prepared And Ready to Help

Emergency Preparedness Mission Nepal February 2011

Livestock-grain terms of trade

• Livestock condition deteriorating in many places; average prices going down

• Average cattle prices down 5% from $341.48/head in Spt ‘13 to $324.33 in Oct ‘13

• Livestock-grain ToT unfavourable to livestock holder; e.g. Oct ’13 goat = 75 kg maize, 3% lower than Spt ’13 (77kg), & 11% lower than Oct 2012 (84kg)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Aug Sep Oct Oct2013 2012

50

60

70

80

90

100

77 77

73

7977

84

89

7775

84

Amount of maize grain purchased from sale of a goat

Mai

ze g

rain

(kg)

equ

ival

ent

to o

ne g

oat

Better Prepared And Ready to Help

Emergency Preparedness Mission Nepal February 2011

Livelihood Issues• Rainfall season performance

• Cost of food basket increasing despite stable inflation env

• Limited and low-income livelihood options

• Coping: casual labour, petty trading, small livestock sales, brick molding & stone crushing, small scale mining, fuel wood sales, cross border activities, barter, sch drop outs; immature fruits

• Crop input support programmes: Govt targeting 1.6 mil HHs

• Producer pricing: maize, tobacco, cotton

• Potential urban displacements