Status of Food Security in Status of Food Security in AfghanistanAfghanistan

PRESENTED BY:Masaood Moahid MAJOR ADVISOR : PALB 2110 Dr. T.N Prakash Kammaradi

SEMINAR TEACHERS: Dr. G.S. MAHADEVIAH

Sri. HONNIAH

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Introduction

Afghanistan

Food security & its four aspects

World food scenario

Major characteristics of food insecurity in Afghanistan

Physical availability of food in Afghanistan

Importance of wheat in Afghan food security

Inflation & consumers’ price index

Food security by region and terrain

Food Security and Strategic Framework of MAIL 

Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan by USDA in 2011 

Main causes of food insecurity in Afghanistan

Conclusion

References

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Afghanistan

The center or heart of Asia

A landlocked country, making the trade

of goods difficult and expensive.

Capital: Kabul

Area: 6.5 lack km = Rajistan + MP

Population: 33.4 millions (FAO

Estimate 2013)

More than99 % Muslim, some Hindu and

Sikh communities

Main ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik,

Hazara, Uzbek

Currency: Afghani (AFN) 1 Rs = 0.93

AFN

 Latitudes 29° N and 39° N, Latitudes 29° N and 39° N,

and longitudes 60° E and 75° Eand longitudes 60° E and 75° E

44

Conti…. It has rugged mountains and plains and is prone

to natural disasters such as earthquakes and drought.

Temperatures are extreme, [(49.9 °C)- (−46 °C)]

A highly mineral-rich country

Agriculture - products: wheat, fruits, nuts, Saffron, onion, cotton, wool, meat.

Export commodities: fruits and nuts, carpets, wool, cotton, hides, precious and semi-precious gems.

Imports : machinery and other capital goods, food, textiles.

55

66

77

88

Figure: 1: Conceptual Model of Food SecurityFigure: 1: Conceptual Model of Food Security99

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World Food Security Scenario

Worldwide around 842 million people are chronically hungry due to extreme poverty.

17,000 children die of hunger and undernutrition related diseases every day, which equals 6 million children who die of hunger every year.

The number is declining due to:- increased economic growth-the fall in international food prices since 2008

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Table1: Undernourishment around the world, 1990-92 to 2011-13 (millions)

  1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2008-10 2011-13*

World 1015.3 957.3 906.6 878.2 842.3

Developed Regions 19.8 18.4 13.6 15.2 15.7

Developing Regions 995.9 938.9 992.9 863 826

Africa 177.6 214.3 217.6 226 226.4

Northern Africa 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.7

Sub-Saharan Africa 173.1 209.5 212.8 221.6 222.6

Asia 751.3 662.3 619.6 585.5 552

Central Asia 9.7 11.6 7.3 7 5.5

Eastern Asia 278.7 193.5 184.8 169.1 166.6

South-Eastern Asia

140.3 113.6 94.2 80.5 64.5

Southern Asia 314.3 330.2 316.6 309.9 297.7

Western Asia 8.4 13.5 16.8 19.1 20.6

Latin America and the

Caribbean65.7 61 54.6 50.3 47

Caribbean 8.3 7.2 7.5 6.8 7.2

Latin America 57.4 53.8 47.2 43.5 39.8

Oceania 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2

Source: FAOSTAT

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Figure 2: (%) of undernourishment around the world Source: FAOSTATSource: FAOSTAT

%%

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MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS OF FOOD INSECURITY IN AFGHANISTAN

Food insecurity in Afghanistan is a complex problem with multiple sources that reportedly affects over 30 percent of the population. (World Bank)

At the household level, food insecurity in Afghanistan is largely caused by inadequate access to food.

The lack of food has been the cause of food insecurity in Afghanistan in times of drought and in isolated communities located at high elevations during winter months.

As of World Bank: “Even where household access to food is sufficient, utilization of food and nutritional outcomes is inadequate.

“access” can be broadly considered as the major or primary characteristic of food insecurity in Afghanistan, but the “availability” and “utilization” of food are also important factors which, depending on the subject beneficiary population.

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Table 2: Cereal Production in Afghanistan, Demand and Gap 2004-2012 (thousands of tons)

 

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112004-11

(Av.)

Total Cereal production

3,057 5,243 4,447 5,443

3,860 6,333 5,726 4,444 4,819

Total Demand 5,717 5,866 6,018 6,175 6,500 6,630 6,410 6,340 6,207

Demand-Supply Gap 2,660 623 1,571 732 2,640 297 684 1,896 1,388

Self-Sufficiency Rate (%)

53 89 74 88 59 96 89 70

77

Source: www.mail.gov.af (2012)Source: www.mail.gov.af (2012)

1616

Source: mail.gov.af (2012)Source: mail.gov.af (2012)

1717

Source: FAOSTATSource: FAOSTAT

Table 3: CID ratio of Afghanistan and regional countries (%)

1818

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Afghanistan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) Pakistan

1919

Figure 3: CID Ratio, Afghanistan and Region (%)

Source: NRVA 2009Source: NRVA 2009

Figure 3: Food Consumption by Product Category Figure 3: Food Consumption by Product Category

2020

Source: FAOSTATSource: FAOSTAT

2121

Figure 5: Average value of Food Production, USD

2222

Afghanistan 170

Pakistan 106

Iran 160

Uzbekistan 164

Asia Region 66

Table 4: Per Capita Wheat Table 4: Per Capita Wheat Consumption (Kg) Selected Consumption (Kg) Selected Countries and Asia RegionCountries and Asia Region

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Source :FEWS NET, ‘Northern Wheat Trader Survey and Afghan Food Security, Bruce Schulte, 2007.

Table 5: Production Imports, Aid and MAIL est. Requirement of Wheat in Afghanistan (000, MT), (2006-2001)

  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112006-11

(Av.)

Production 3363 4343 2767 5115 4532 3388

3,918

Imports 555

316

324

583

1,135

803

619

Food Aid ( Cereals)

84 174

212

218

82

Nil 154

MAIL Est. Requirement

4,820

4,917

4,722

5,260

5,231

5,163

5,019

Total Supply 4002 4833 3303 5916 5749 4191

4,666

Deficit as of Total Supply 818

84

1,419

(656)

(518)

972

353

Deficit as % of Total Supply

20.44% 1.74% 42.96% -11.09% -9.01% 23.19% 7.57%

Source: MAIL (2012)

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Source: MAILSource: MAIL

2525

2626

Source: www.mail.gov.afSource: www.mail.gov.af

Figure 8: Irrigated & Rainfed Wheat Production in Afghanistan

Source: MAIL (2012)

Figure 9:Retail Wheat Prices in Afghanistan (USD $) 2006-2012

Jan. 2006 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12

Series1 0.28 0.274 0.76 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.43

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8A

xis

Titl

e

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Robert Robert GiffenGiffen

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Figure 10: Afghan households spent more on grains and less on other foods as wheat prices increased between August 2007 and September 2008

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Figure 11 : Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

Source: www.cso.gov.afSource: www.cso.gov.af

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Figure 12 : Consumer Price Index (2005-06)-(2009-10)

Table 8: National Consumer Price Index, Annual Inflation Rate (%) Items 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Overall Index 9 4.5 22.5 4.9 -4.5 Food 7.7 6 31.9 4.3 -9.1

Bread and cereals 8.1 4.8 52.3 3 -19

Fall Winter Spring Summer

Price of domestic wheat flour per (kg)

18.09 23.51 34.19 36.51

Price of vegetable oil per (kg)

64.81 76.93 88.9 91.7

Price of domestic rice per (kg)

33.93 33.99 46.16 55.26

Price of lamb per (kg) 182.34 186.2 189.28 180.27

Price of milk per (kg) 23.44 25.66 27.23 30.75

Price of fuel gas per (kg) 43.15 63 46.83 55.48

Note: Estimated population weighted means. Prices in Afghani per kilogram

Source: NRVA 2007/08Source: NRVA 2007/08

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• Afghan households coped with the sudden rise in food prices by cutting back on overall food consumption and, to a lesser extent, on calories consumed.

• Households were able to buffer the effects of the wheat flour price shocks on calories consumed by changing the composition of their diets, moving away from micronutrient-rich foods, such as meat, fruits, and vegetables, toward grains.

• The decline in household food security was felt across both rural and urban areas. Urban households made changes that led to large declines in food consumption, but were able to maintain calories by greatly reducing the diversity of their diets and buying cheaper foods. Rural households made changes that led to smaller declines in their food consumption and in the variety of foods they consumed, but relatively larger declines in calories.

• As the price of wheat flour increased, demand for wheat products was relatively steady in rural areas, but rose in urban areas.

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Table 10: Population statistics by area and household type

National Rural Urban Agricultural Household

Nonagricultural households

Nominal value of monthly per capita total consumption (AFN) 19,25.60 1,675.50 2,931.47 1,752.20 2,159.44

Nominal value of monthly per capita food consumption (AFN) 1,158.22 1,104.57 1,370.82 1,133.96 1,189.42

Food Consumption Score 60.95 59.58 66.46 61.59 60.07

Price of domestic wheat flour (AFN per kg) 25.33 25.52 24.5 25.77 24.7

Price of vegetable oil (AFN per kg) 43.8 43.9 43.2 44 43.6

Price of domestic rice (AFN per kg) 37.2 37.2 36.9 37.3 37

Price of fuel gas (AFN per kg) 44.6 46 43.2 45.8 43.3

Note: Estimates are population-weighted means

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Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

Table 11:3636

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

Table 12: The impact of higher food prices on household well-being

Log real value of per capita monthly food consumption

Log per capita calories availability

Log food consumption score

Log per capita daily protein availability

Log wheat flour price -0.202*** -0.070*** -0.102*** -0.249***

Std. error [0.021] [0.020] [0.024] [0.069]

Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491

R2 0.663 0.421 0.639 0.606

Notes: Each column represents a separate regression; OLS estimates are population weighted. Robust standard errors -in brackets- are clustered by stratum and adjusted for survey design.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

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Table 13: Changes in expenditure shares by food group

Grain Meat Dairy Oil/fat Vegetable Fruit Sugar

Log wheat flour price

0.191*** -0.032 -0.019 -0.031 -0.028 -0.07 -0.012

Standard error [0.011] [0.009] [0.007] [0.004] [0.004] [0.007] [0.002]

Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491

R^2 0.674 0.419 0.261 0.241 0.46 0.533 0.434

Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household expenditure share from the food group listed at top of column..

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

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Table 14: Changes in calorie shares by food groupGrain Meat Dairy Oilfat Vegetable Fruit Sugar

Log wheat flour price

0.042*** 0 -0.004 -0.017*** 0 -0.02*** -0.002

St. error [0.008] [0.002] [0.004] [0.004] [0.002] [0.003] [0.002]

Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491

R^2 0.324 0.289 0.287 0.241 0.26 0.233 0.234

Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household calorie share from the food group listed at top of column. All control variables listed in table 4 are included in the regressions.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

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Figure 13 : Map of Afghanistan & its RegionsFigure 13 : Map of Afghanistan & its Regions

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Figure 14: Food Security by Regions, Main Findings

Source: USDA, Economic Research Services

The prevalence of food insecurity is generally higher in mountains and plateaus of Afghanistan.

people residing in mountainous regions of Afghanistan experience much higher calorie and protein deficiency compared to those living in lowlands.

Similarly, the population in the plateaus also experience higher food insecurity outcomes vis-à-vis their counterparts who live in the plains.

The terrain characteristics affect food security outcomes by impacting access to markets, transportation costs, and livelihood opportunities.

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4343

Figure 15: Major Faming Systems & Food Security by Terrain Type, % deficiency.

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4545

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Provision of relief ration Provision of relief ration to people who suffer to people who suffer from man-made and from man-made and natural disasters.natural disasters.

During 2006-2008, 21 During 2006-2008, 21 percent of percent of Government’s overall Government’s overall food aid.food aid.

Food is given to the people as incentive for their labor contribution in building or repairing productive community infrastructure such as roads, bridges, reservoirs and irrigation systems.

The projects are selected in consultation with the local communities..

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FFE aims to bridge nutritional gaps among children and promote school enrollment, particularly among girls, by providing school meals and take-home rations.

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FFT is designed to help the poor acquire vocational skills.

The ultimate objective of FFT is to improve economic and social prospects for vulnerable members of the community, particularly women.

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Table 9 : Number of Recipients/Beneficiaries by Program Activities (in, 000)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GFD 1,138 765 1,240 1,400 1,800

Food for Work 271 642 859 4,400 1,500

Food for Education 1,972 2,203 2,228 2,800 1600

Food For Training 55 75 150 180 140

TB Patients 25 22 22 20 20

Source: WFP (2010)Source: WFP (2010)

5050

5151

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.01

990

-92

19

91-9

3

19

92-9

4

19

93-9

5

19

94-9

6

19

95-9

7

19

96-9

8

19

97-9

9

19

98-0

0

19

99-0

1

20

00-0

2

20

01-0

3

20

02-0

4

20

03-0

5

20

04-0

6

20

05-0

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06-0

8

20

07-0

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20

08-1

0

20

09-1

1

20

10-1

2

20

11-1

3

Population

Axi

s Ti

tle

Population

Source: FAO STATSource: FAO STAT

5252

Figure 17: Population of Afghanistan, (1990-12)-(2011-13)Figure 17: Population of Afghanistan, (1990-12)-(2011-13)

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Conclusions

5454

ReferencesD. S. ANNA, 2011, Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan, Economic Research Services, USDA. 

H. MALLETA, 2004, Seasonal Changes in Wages and Food Prices in Afghanistan, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, Kabul.

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Economy and the World Bank, ‘Poverty and Food Security in Afghanistan: Analysis based on the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment’ February 2012. Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, ‘Agricultural Commodity Price Bulletin’ selected issues.  Central Statistics Office (CSO), Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook, 2012.www.cso.gov.af Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations (2012). Statistics Division.http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx World Food Programme (2008) Food Security Overview, http://www.wfp.org/country_brief/indexcountry.asp?country=004

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DiscussionDiscussionQuestionsQuestions

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