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Page 1 of 33
April 16
2012
Food Prices March 2012 update & Annual Review April 2011 to March 2012
Landmarks of the last year: April 2011 to March 2012
International prices for maize and wheat fell for most of the last year, owing to reasonably good
harvests.
Rice prices, in contrast, have risen a little over the last year, since some harvests have
disappointed, while there is uncertainty over Thai policy for rice.
The Annual Review in this bulletin looks at how cereals markets have evolved since the
2007/08 price spike. The lasting change seen concerns maize, for which 2011/12 was an
extraordinary year:
For the first time, more US maize went to distilleries than to feed animals, as prices
increasingly correlate with oil prices;
China has started to import large amounts of maize for animal feed.
Consequently, maize stocks are at their lowest since 1973/74, a year that saw a dramatic spike
in commodity prices. If any significant maize harvest fails in 2012, there would probably be a
sharp spike in maize prices that would in turn drag up wheat prices as some feedlots switched
to that grain.
Production of maize and wheat have, however, responded strongly to higher prices since 2006,
mainly by increasing yields. The surprise, however, is the relatively weak response of rice
production to higher prices — reflected in rice prices remaining some US$200 a tonne more
than in 2006 before the spike.
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Contents
Landmarks of the last year: April 2011 to March 2012 ........................................................................................... 1
RECAP FROM THE EARLIER UPDATES ........................................................................................................................................ 3
KEY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE FEBRUARY 2012 ......................................................................................................................... 3
Cereals prices .................................................................................................................................................................3
Maize and wheat prices ....................................................................................................................................3
Rice prices ..............................................................................................................................................................5
Harvest prospects ........................................................................................................................................................5
Southern Hemisphere wheat and maize ...................................................................................................5
Winter wheat ........................................................................................................................................................6
New maize planting ...........................................................................................................................................7
Rice ...........................................................................................................................................................................7
IMF commodity indices: commodity price resurge? .....................................................................................7
FAO food price indices ...............................................................................................................................................8
Food crises .................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Annual review, April 2011 to end March 2012......................................................................................................... 12
Last year in brief .................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Emerging trends since the price spike of 2007–08 ................................................................................................. 12
Supply response: reacting to higher prices ................................................................................................................ 12
Perspectives from the long and medium terms ............................................................................................ 12
Response to the price spike of 2007/08 ...................................................................................................................... 15
Higher maize prices: so more use of other feeds for livestock? ............................................................. 16
Annex 1 Maize, rice, wheat — latest annual projections from USDA .............................................................. 20
Annex 2 Stocks — where are they now, compared to historical distribution & levels ............................ 21
Annex 3 Maize, rice, wheat, and cassava – production and area harvested ................................................. 23
Maize production, area, and yield figures .................................................................................................. 24
Rice production, area, & yield figures .......................................................................................................... 26
Wheat production, area, & yield figures ..................................................................................................... 28
Cassava production, area, and yield figures .............................................................................................. 30
Annex 4 Cereals used for animal feed, 1990/91 – 2011/12 ............................................................................... 32
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RECAP FROM THE EARLIER UPDATES
International maize and wheat prices rose sharply from mid 2010, driven largely by poorer
than hoped for harvests and strong demand, particularly for maize to make ethanol, then fell
back from early 2011 since the main harvests of 2011 were good;
Rice prices were high in 2011 owing to flood losses in Thailand and concern over the impact
of Thai policies on exports from that country;
High maize prices have seen the premium paid for wheat over maize cut to slim margins. In
more than a century, the current margin of under 8% has only been lower in nine years.
Stocks of both wheat and rice are being rebuilt, sufficient to cope with modest harvest
failures in the near future. Maize, however, is the exception, thanks to demand for biofuel
and feed in China outstripping production increases. Consequently maize stocks are low, at
less than 15% of use: not enough to withstand a harvest failure without a spike in maize
prices.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE FEBRUARY 2012
Cereals prices
Figure A International cereals prices, nominal, Jan 2005 – March 2012
Source: With data from FAO ESC. Note: Prices are weekly to week ending April 6, 2012. The last 6 weeks are new for this update
Maize and wheat prices
Since the last update in February 2011, maize and wheat spot prices have risen slightly, most
recently at US$283 and US$296 a tonne, respectively: see Figure B. Futures prices, see Figures C
and D, are about US$30 a tonne less than spot prices for maize, and US$60 a tonne less than spot
prices for wheat. They have changed little since the New Year.
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Rice, Thai 100% B
Maize, US No.2 Yellow
Wheat, US No. 2 HRW
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Figure B Focus on last financial year for US maize and wheat prices
Source: With data from FAO ESC. Note: Prices are weekly, from week ending Apr 1st 2011 to week ending Apr 6th, 2012
Figure C CBOT Corn Futures: US cents/bushel, 12 months to April 9, 2012
Source: BBC Market data. US$/tonne added
Figure D CBOT Wheat Futures: US cents/bushel, 12 months to April 9, 2012
Source: BBC Market data. US$/tonne added
Maize prices are kept high by strong demand from the US for ethanol feedstock, and from China
for all uses, especially animal feed.
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Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
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$ p
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Maize, US No.2 Yellow
Wheat, US No. 2 HRW
643¢/bushel = US$236/tonne 800¢/bushel = US$294/tonne
600¢/bushel = US$220/tonne
786¢/bushel = US$309/tonne
649¢/bushel = US$255/tonne
590¢/bushel = US$232/tonne
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Latest stock-to-use ratios estimated for maize are down to 14.1% globally, from an already low
14.7% in 2010/11.1 This is lower than the 15.2% seen in 2006/07 going into the food price
spike of 2007/08. See figures in Annex 1.
Rice prices
Over the last six weeks, rice spot prices have moved little: see figure E. Thai A1 Super is US$544
per tonne, while Thai 100% B is US$566 per tonne. Both are good quality grades. Cheaper
quality grades are trading at about US$120 per tonne lower.2
Heavy losses to flood damage in October 2011 in Thailand contributed to price rises, though
they were already on the way up, driven by concern over Thai government policy. Rice prices
have also been pushed up by delays to exports in Indian ports3, below par harvests in Indonesia
and the Philippines, and by unexpectedly high demand from China.4 (IGC, April 2012)
Figure E Focus on last financial year for Thai rice prices
Source: With data from FAO ESC. Note: Prices are weekly, from week ending Apr 8th 2011 to week ending Apr 6th, 2012
Harvest prospects
Southern Hemisphere wheat and maize
The news from Australia continues to encourage, with 2011/12 harvest estimates for wheat at
29.5M tonnes for 2011/12, up from the record 28M tonnes achieved in 2010/115. Australia is
also holding large stocks of wheat6.
Argentine wheat production for 2011/12 is estimated at about 14M tonnes, down about 5%
on the previous 5 year average, but not as poor as feared.
Maize is a different story in Argentina, with heavy harvest losses to dry weather feared. Only
27% of Argentine maize was harvested by early April 2012, so estimates from Bolsa de Cereales
1 USDA figures: revisions to the 2010/11 WASDE estimates mean that the global maize stock-to-use ratio estimated in April
2012 has fallen from the February 2012 estimate of 15.3% 2 IGC reported Vietnamese 5% broken rice, and Pakistan IRRI 25% March prices at US$435 and US$410 per tonne
respectively. 3 'Amid logistical difficulties at India’s ports, renewed buying interest underpinned solid gains in Pakistan, while big
purchases by China and the Philippines supported increases in Vietnam.' IGC, April 2012 4 USDA projected China would be a net exporter of 120k tonnes of rice for 2011/12, but the latest figures [April WASDE]
were revised to project China as a net importer of 500k tonnes of rice. China is expected to import 1M tonnes of milled rice in 2011/12, double the year before — the highest since 1994/95, when they were close to 2M tonnes. 5 Estimate for 2011/12 from March 2012 ABARES report
6 See Annex 2 for distribution of maize, rice, and wheat stocks by region. Australian statistics appear in Oceania
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Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
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Rice, Thai 100% B
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are not yet available. USDA has however revised its estimate for Argentina’s maize production
progressively downwards since the start of the year, from 29M to 22M to 21.5M (as at April
2012). Not disastrous, but disappointing considering the large area planted to maize in
Argentina for 2011/12 — 3.6M hectares.7 Yield per hectare is expected to be only 6 tonnes per
hectare, the lowest since 2000/01, well below the previous 5 year average of over 7 tonnes per
ha.
Exports of 14M tonnes are expected: below the 16M tonnes exported in 2010/11, and the 16.5M
tonnes in 2009/10; but only 600k tonnes below the previous 5-year average of 14.6M tonnes
(USDA FAS & WASDE April 2012 data).
Winter wheat
In Russia, where drought dramatically
reduced wheat production in 2010/11,
latest estimates for 2011/12 are much
improved:8 up from 41.5M tonnes in
2010/11 to 56.2M tonnes in 2011/12, an
increase of about 35%. For the Former
Soviet Union region as a whole — that is
largely Kazakhstan, Russia and the Ukraine
— wheat harvests are expected to rise by
41% over last year: See figure F.
Observers had hoped this production
would be even better in 2011/12, however
weather has not been entirely cooperative.
Nonetheless, the harvests predicted are
almost as high as the levels reached in
2008/09 and 2009/10 — 8% above the
previous 5-year average for Russia, and
17% above the previous 5-year average for
the FSU as a whole.
Figure F Production and exports in Russia and the Former Soviet Union 2000/01 to 2011/12
Source: With data from USDA FAS
Wheat exports from Russia are predicted to exceed 20M tonnes in 2011/12; a sharp contrast
from the less than 4M tonnes exported in 2010/11 when exports were banned.
In the EU, a relatively good harvest is expected in spite of some drought damage, with USDA
estimating EU wheat harvests to rise about 1.3% from 2010/11 to 2011/12.
Elsewhere, prospects for winter wheat also appear favourable, with most US crops reportedly in
good condition, especially for wheat in Kansas and Oklahoma, the largest wheat states.9
Overall, prospects for less than hoped-for production in Europe and the Black Sea region are
offset by better prospects of a good winter crop in the US (IGC).
7 Since 1960, in only 2 years did Argentina devote more area to maize —1969/70 and 1970/71
8 Bloomberg, April 11, 2012 Wheat Seen Declining as Stockpiles Expand to Record: Commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-10/wheat-seen-declining-as-stockpiles-expand-to-record-commodities.html 9 Bloomberg, April 9, 2011 U.S. Corn Seeding Speeds Up as Warm Weather Aids Fieldwork.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-09/u-s-corn-seeding-speeds-up-as-warm-weather-aids-fieldwork-1-.html
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India continues to allow unrestricted exports of wheat. A 650k tonne export restriction on
wheat flour exports, was lifted with effect from April 1st (IGC, April 2012).
New maize planting
US maize is being planted at a record pace owing to clear weather in the Midwest, so that the
largest area since 1944 is expected to be planted.10
This may offset the principle fear over cereals: the very low stocks currently held, with a ratio of
use of around 14%. If the large area planted in the US grows well, then there may be room for a
modest rise in maize stocks (IGC, 2012) 11 — see Figure G.
Figure G Maize stock-to-use ratios
Source: From IGC, April 2, 2012
Rice
The good news is that India, expecting a
bumper crop in 2011–12, continues to
allow exports of non-basmati rice.
Since India exports rice at lower prices
than Thailand, albeit for lower quality
grades, this may reduce Thai exports.
These may in any case be limited by
public schemes to support domestic
prices for growers, that may see Thai
rice stock-to-use ratios to rise from
55% in 2010/11 to 90% in 2011/12,
see Figure H, according to USDA.
Globally, the rice stock to use ratio is
expected to be slightly up in 2011/12.
Figure H Rice stock-to-use ratios: 2000/01 to 2011/12
Source: From USDA FAS data
IMF commodity indices: commodity price resurge?
Prices of most commodities peaked in February to March 2011, ending a surge that began two
years earlier, and subsequently have been falling. That may be changing, since the oil price
index turned upwards again in November, and from January 2012 to March 2012 the other
indices also rose, except for beverages.
10
USDA NASS Crop Progress, Bloomberg, April 9, 2011 (see earlier footnote). 11
IGC projects 2012/13 harvests at 900M tonnes, an increase of 4% on 2011/12.
18.03
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Figure J IMF commodity indices to Jan 2002 to Mar 2012
Source: IMF Data
Figure K Focus on the last financial year for IMF commodity indices, April 2011 to March 2012
Source: IMF Data
Oil appears to lead the other commodities, just as it did in early 2009 — with metals not far
behind. Oil is the commodity most sensitive to economic swings and roundabouts, and to any
risks in global affairs. Oil prices then affect food prices through costs of fertiliser, transport and
machinery operations; plus, increasingly important, maize prices through the ethanol link. With
oil above US$100 a barrel, ethanol from maize should be profitable — at least while room for
ethanol to be blended with gasoline remains.
FAO food price indices
FAO’s food price index, in decline since early 2011, rose a little from December 2011 to March
2012, pulled up by oils, sugar, and cereals, see Figure L.
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Metals
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Page 9 of 33
Figure L FAO Food Price Indices to March 2012
Source: FAO Note: 2000 – 2004 = 100
Food crises
Reports continue to warn of a food crisis in the West African Sahel, affecting people in Mali,
Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, and Senegal.
Figure M Countries requiring external assistance for food: focus on the Sahel
Source: March 2012, FAO GIEWS
Harvests across the region in 2011 were worse than the year before: cereals production is down
by 19% in Burkina Faso, 16% in Chad, 10% in Mali, 34% in Mauritania, 30% in Niger, and 38%
in Senegal — according to FAO GIEWS estimates [Country Briefs] compared to FAO statistics for
the 2010 cereals harvest. Across these six countries, production per capita is down nearly 30 kg
in 2011 compared to the previous five-year average for 2005 to 2010, see Figure N.
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Figure N Cereal production per capita in selected Sahelian countries, 2000 to 2011
Source: From FAOSTAT data for 2000 to 2010, FAO GIEWS Country Briefs for 2011 estimates, converted to per using
UN population estimates.
Reports indicate that prices in the 2011 to 2012 marketing season rose very soon after harvest;
but some of that increase may be owing to demand from aid agencies and governments
concerned to assure relief supplies in anticipation of a food crisis. In Niger, prices have
subsequently fallen, according to FEWSNET.
Four points are evident in the emerging crisis:
The extent to which food prices rise in specific markets, making it difficult for the poor
to afford a sufficient diet, will depend on how much food is traded towards the areas
with largest reductions in local supply. There are now ECOWAS accords to allow free
movement of cereals, but there great temptations arise at times like these for
governments to prevent export of grains;
Insecurity in the region will make it harder for the vulnerable to cope and for relief to be
supplied to them. Northern Mali is currently virtually inaccessible to humanitarian
agencies — although some of those vulnerable from this area have already fled to camps
in Mauritania and Niger. Fears over Boko Haram have led to much of the border
between Niger and Nigeria being closed, save for a small corridor leading to Niamey. In
most years, southern Niger is a net importer of cereals from northern Nigeria, and
especially when harvests are poor, so any constriction of trade across the border could
see prices rising sharply in Niger;
Early warnings of the likely crisis were sounded months ago,12 yet responses have been
delayed; and,
12
Warnings began in the last quarter of 2011
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Page 11 of 33
The crisis presents a familiar dilemma in that the reduced harvest of late 2011 was not
necessarily disastrous so that current observations of distress in the region may be little
more than usually can be seen as the hungry season leading to the next harvest in
September/October begins. That, of course, does not make suffering acceptable —
surveys of pre-schoolers in Niger, for instance, in any year show chronic and
unacceptably high rates of Global Acute Malnutrition; but it does prompt questions over
the response. Emergency food aid to treat symptoms of acute crisis does not tackle the
chronic problems of poverty and malnutrition13 that beset vulnerable households and
especially their young children.14
Equally disturbing are reports from East Africa and the Horn where the first food crops of the
year have been planted. Early signs are of poor weather hindering growth. Were these harvests
to fail, the impact could be catastrophic given that the region went through a severe crisis last
year, assets have been run down, stocks are low, and coping strategies are limited.15
13
See Eilerts, G., April 10, 2012. Niger 2011-12: An exceptional crisis? Presentation at Oxfam/Partnership for Africa
Workshop.FEWSNET. 14
Niger for instance has chronic and unacceptably high rates of Global Acute Malnutrition in preschoolers. 15
See FEWSNET, April 6, 2012. East Africa Food Security Alert: Poor forecast suggests that increased food insecurity is likely in the eastern Horn. http://www.fews.net/docs/Publications/East%20Region_Alert_2012_04_06_final.pdf
Page 12 of 33
Annual review, April 2011 to end March 2012
Last year in brief
Most cereals harvests were good in 2011, the main exceptions being some of the rice harvests.
Consequently the high prices of maize and wheat seen a year ago fell from April 2011 to March
2012, by 14% for wheat and by 5% for maize.
Rice prices have risen over the year, by 12% for premium grades, pushed up by a combination
of poorer than expected harvests in Thailand and the Philippines, anxiety over the policies
introduced by the new government in Thailand to support farmer prices, and stronger than
expected demand for imports from China.
Emerging trends since the price spike of 2007–08
Trends on the world cereals markets since the 2007/08 price spike are becoming clearer.
Increasingly it seems that lasting change can be found in the maize market. For so long maize
was the jobbing cereal: cheap — the world price got as low as US$75 a tonne in July 2000 — and
hence used more than any other grain for animal feed and for processing to starch and syrup.
But rising oil prices, biofuel mandates and subsidies, and increasing demand for animal feed
have changed that. With a colossal 125M tonnes or more of the US maize harvest going to
ethanol distilleries, while countries like China begin to import significantly more maize to feed
pigs, maize prices have moved to US$150 and US$200 a tonne or more: levels that a decade ago
would have been difficult to imagine.
As the maize price has risen, it seems that demand for wheat as a feed has increased as well,
since when maize prices reach the levels seen in the last year, wheat in some markets competes
on price with maize. Hence the wheat market, that otherwise shows every sign of getting back to
the low prices seen before the price spike, has seen prices supported by this substitution effect.
This prompts the question of supply response: the high prices seen since 2007 and the
indications of substantially higher demand for maize should provoke a supply response in
cereals production. Almost five years since the price spike began, enough time has passed to
overcome any short term rigidities. So what response has been seen?
Supply response: reacting to higher prices
Perspectives from the long and medium terms
To set the scene, Figure P shows the last fifty years of the area planted to cereals and yields per
hectare. The growth of yields has been remarkably consistent: every decade almost half a tonne
per hectare has been added to cereal yields.16 What does change is the area planted to crops.
The early 1980s were the high water mark for cereals, with as much as 726M hectares sown.
Subsequently the area planted fell by 9% to 660M hectares in 2002: in part a response to
16
Since this increase is arithmetic, the average annual growth rate of yields has fallen over the half century under review — from an average of 3% in the 1960s to 1.86% in 2000s.
Page 13 of 33
considerable fall in real prices for cereals seen over those two decades. Since 2002, the area
planted has once again expanded, above all in 2008 in response to the very high prices seen
early that year. Hence it seems that in the long run much of the supply response comes through
changes in area planted, rather than yield.
Figure P World cereals, are planted and yields per hectare, 1961 to 2010
Source: Constructed from FAOSTAT data
What does the record for each of the three main cereals show?
Figure Q Yields for three main cereals, 1961 to 2010, tonnes/ha
Source: Constructed from FAOSTAT data
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Page 14 of 33
Figure R Area planted to three main cereals, 1961 to 2010, M hectares
Source: Constructed from FAOSTAT data
Globally, maize yields have risen consistently since the 1960s, improving from about 2 tonnes
per hectare in the early 1960s to close to 5.5 tonnes per hectare in 2010 — and over 6.5 tonnes
in the major maize exporters [US, Argentina, China, Brazil, Ukraine], see Figure Q. Area planted
appeared to level off or even decline from the mid-1990s, but has accelerated sharply after
2002, increasing by about 25M hectares from 2002 to 2010, see Figure R.
About 60% of the increase in area from 2000 to 2010 came from the top exporters, who also
saw yield increases of about 1 tonne per hectare on average from 2000 to 2010, slightly better
than the global average yield gain of about 900kg per hectare, see Figure Sa.
Figure S Key staple foods area and yield changes, 2000 to 2010, globally
a Maize
b Rice
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240 1
96
1
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Mil
lio
n H
ect
are
s
Maize
Rice
Wheat
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
5.4
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Area, maize, M ha
Yield, maize, T/ha
3.8
3.9
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Area, rice, M ha
Yield, rice, T/ha
Page 15 of 33
c Wheat
Source: Contructed from FAOSTAT data.
Yield growth in rice was fairly steady from the early 1960s to the mid 1970s, after which
growth accelerated until 1985, see Figure Q. From 1985 to 2010 yield growth slowed markedly,
see Figure T. Area planted to rice grew relatively rapidly until the late 1970s, see Figures R and
T, after which growth slowed. In recent years most growth in area has come from minor rice
producing countries.
Figure T Rice: growth rates of yields and area planted, 1961 to 2010
Source: From FAOSTAT data
Wheat yields have grown since the early 1960s, but slowed notably since the early 1990s, see
Figure Q. Area planted to wheat grew from the early 1960s to the early 1980s, after which it
declined until about 2003; since when it has been rising again but has yet to regain the peak
registered in the early 1980s, see Figure Q.
Response to the price spike of 2007/08
The price spike has led to an acceleration of cereals production: between 2006 immediately
before the spike and 2009 by which time farmers had a chance to react to the higher prices,
world cereals harvests rose by more than 11%, well ahead of consumption, see Figure U. Most
of the increase, fully three-quarters, has come from higher yields rather than from an expanded
area. By crop, the largest increase was almost 16% for maize, followed closely by wheat at 14%.
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
205
210
215
220
225
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Area, wheat, M ha
Yield, wheat, T/ha
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1961 - 79 1979 - 1985 1985 - 2010
An
nu
al
%
Yield growth, rice
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1961 - 79 1979 - 1985 1985 - 2010
An
nu
al
%
Area growth, rice
World
Top producers / users
Top exporters
Page 16 of 33
Rice has seen a surprisingly weak response, at less than 7% increase: surprising since it was the
rice price that spiked most sharply in 2008, and it is the rice price that remains so much higher
than in 2006 — prices since late 2008 for rice have been US$200 a tonne or more higher than
before the spike. Is this because in the main rice producers, there is little suitable land to add to
rice? Perhaps: but even allowing for that possibility, the yield response for rice has been roughly
half that seen for other cereals.
This is puzzling: a possible reason for this is that high world rice prices may not have translated
back into higher prices for farmers, as may be the case in several of the main Asian producers,
where governments intervene considerably in rice markets.
The lack of supply response to higher rice prices explains why the rice price has remained so
high.
Figure U Increased cereals production, share by area and yield, 2006 to 2009
Source: Using data from FAO
Higher maize prices: so more use of other feeds for livestock?
Most the world’s maize is fed to livestock to satisfy demand for meat. As maize prices have risen
since the price spike, has this led to maize being substituted by other feeds? Yes, to judge by the
statistics on maize and wheat used for animal feed presented in Figures V and W.
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
All Cereals Maize Rice Wheat
Incr
ea
se i
n P
rod
uct
ion
, 20
06
to
2
00
9, %
Yield Share
Area Share
Page 17 of 33
Figure V Change in maize fed to livestock since 1990/91, annual average, M tonnes
Source: from USDA data
Figure W Change in maize fed to livestock since 1990/91, annual average, M tonnes
Source: from USDA data
In the 16 years from 1990/91 to 2006/07 before the price spike, maize use for feed increased
by an average of almost 10M tonnes a year: in the four subsequent years, that slowed to less
than 3M tonnes. For wheat used to feed livestock, the change has been the reverse: in the 16
years before the spike, wheat used for feed actually fell; after the spike, it has risen by an
average of more than 9M tonnes a year. It thus seems that wheat is being substituted for maize:
to be expected given the erosion of the premium in price that wheat has had over maize.
The story is more complicated when disaggregated by some of the main consuming regions.17
North America shows an extraordinary change in maize used for feed: growing before the spike,
17 Annex 4 shows how cereals used for feed have evolved by region since 1990/91.
-10
-5
0
5
10
Euro Union
Former Soviet
Union & Other
Europe
East & SE Asia
North America
Rest of world
World
An
nu
al
Ch
an
ge
, M t
on
ne
s 1990/91 to 2006/07
2007/08 to 2011/12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Euro Union
Former Soviet
Union & Other
Europe
East & SE Asia
North America
Rest of world
World
An
nu
al
Ch
an
ge
, M t
on
ne
s
1990/91 to 2006/07
2007/08 to 2011/12
Page 18 of 33
the amount used has fallen heavily since then — by an average of almost 10M tonnes a year.
This has arisen partly because of the growing use of maize for ethanol.
The diversion of maize to ethanol, however, does not affect livestock feed as strongly as might
be expected, thanks to the substitution of dried distiller’s grains with solubles (DDGS), a by-
product from ethanol distillation, for maize and soybean meal. Roughly one-third of every tonne
of corn distilled to ethanol returns as livestock feed in the US as DDGS, replacing corn and soya
meal, mostly for beef or dairy cattle.18
Against the recent fall in maize being used for feed in North America can be set the strongly
growing use in East and Southeast Asia, and in the rest of world, with South America prominent.
For feed wheat, every region other than the European shows increased growth in use since the
spike, with absolute decline in use changing to increases in the Former Soviet Union and Other
Europe19 and in North America.
What of other feeds that might substitute for maize? There are no signs of other grains
substituting for maize: use of barley, oats and sorghum for livestock has been in decline for the
last two decades, with no sign that the price spike has changed that.
Other than cereals, cassava would be prime candidate to replace the energy component of
animal feedgrains. 20 Although there has been an increase in both area planted and yields in the
2000s, see Figure W, almost all of this occurred before the spike began in 2007. So far there are
few signs that high maize prices may be stimulating cassava as a replacement, although FAO
estimates cassava production in 2011 to be up by 6%. (FAO Outlook Nov 2011, 5)
18
Hoffman, Linwood A., & Allen Baker. Oct 2011. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers’ Grains for Corn and Soybean
Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex. USDA.
The rising importance of DDGS as a feed means that when computing the greenhouse gas emissions from maize grown for distilling, an offset may be made for the by-product, subtracting avoided production of soybeans. If it is claimed that DDGS reduces the area that might have been converted to soybeans in South America, the offset can very large. Ethanol plants in the UK claim that their emissions footprint is thereby negative. 19
There was an abrupt fall in the use of wheat and to a lesser extent of maize in the old Eastern Bloc in the early 1990s as economies ceased to be centrally planned and moved to markets. Since the late 1990s, use of grains for livestock has started to grow again, but remains well below its former levels. 20
Cassava used to make starch also produces by-products that can be used for feed. For instance, in Thailand, animal nutritionists recently examined the viability of dried cassava pulp (a byproduct of starch processing) as a maize substitute in poultry diets, prompted by the higher maize prices and lower availability. They found that dried cassava pulp can be used as an energy source for poultry, and blended to be up to 8% of broiler diets. [S. Khempaka; W Molee & M. Guillaume, 2009. Dried cassava pulp as an alternative feedstuff for broilers: Effect on growth performance, carcass traits, digestive organs, and nutrient digestibility. The Journal of Applied Poultry Research. http://japr.fass.org/content/18/3/487.full]
Page 19 of 33
Figure W Cassava, yields and area 2000 to 2010
Source: Constructed with FAOSTAT data
In sum, then, there has been a move away from maize and in favour of wheat as a consequence
of the higher prices of maize that have prevailed since the 2007/08 price spike. The surprise
here is the apparent lack response by cassava, a crop that grows well across large parts of the
tropics. That delay, however, may owe something to the longer production cycle of cassava
compared to cereals: cassava can take 18 to 24 months to develop its full yield. It will be
interesting to see how much land is planted to cassava in the coming years.
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Yie
ld, t
on
ne
/h
a
Are
a, M
ha
Area, cassava, M ha Yield, cassava, T/ha
Page 20 of 33
Annex 1 Maize, rice, wheat — latest annual projections from USDA
Figure A1.1 Global production, consumption, stock-to-use ratios, ending stocks
Source: USDA FAS and USDA WASDE, Jan to April 2012. Note: For maize, the 2010/11 estimate is revised from the
Feb 2012 WASDE figure used in the last update, so that the stock-to-use ratio changes from 15.3 to 14.7% for
2010/11
110 132 147 144 125 128 125 125 123
15.2
17.0
18.8
17.7
14.7 14.8 14.4 14.3 14.1
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 est*
Jan 2012 proj
Feb 2012 proj
Mar 2012 proj
Apr 2012 proj
Latest 2011/12 proj
%
M t
on
ne
s
Maize
Production Consumption Ending stocks stock-to-use ratio (R axis)
75 80 92 94 98 100 100 100 103
17.9
18.8
21.1
21.7 22.1
21.8 21.8 21.7
22.5
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 est*
Jan 2012 proj
Feb 2012 proj
Mar 2012 proj
Apr 2012 proj
Latest 2011/12 proj
%
M t
on
ne
s
Rice
Production Consumption Ending stocks stock-to-use ratio (R axis)
133 127 167 201 199 210 213 210 206
21.4 20.7
26.3
31.0 30.3 30.8
31.3 30.6
30.0
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 est*
Jan 2012 proj
Feb 2012 proj
Mar 2012 proj
Apr 2012 proj
Latest 2011/12 proj
%
M t
on
ne
s
Wheat
Production Consumption Ending stocks stock-to-use ratio (R axis)
Page 21 of 33
Annex 2 Stocks — where are they now, compared to historical distribution & levels
Figure A2.1 Relative distribution of key cereal stocks held by region
Source: With data in USDA FAS. Note: Labels are in millions of tonnes. Rice is on a milled basis
4
11
44
88 88
40
55 5
17 36
98
82
40 47
4
11
30
58
78
40 61
3.1
6.0 6.1
15.0
21.5
12.8 25.1
4.0
6.5
7.9
7.5
23.4
9.0
22.2
1.2
2.6
6.7
6.7
13.4
14.9
18.4
2.4
3.7
7.6
5.8 4.9
8.2
6.4
11.8
10.0
14.4
27.5
19.5
18.4 15.7
8.7
6.7
28.9
14.5
14.5 27.1
3.5
3.6
2.3 2.1
1.7
3.3
7.7
10.8 12.7
12.5 13.9
43.2
21.5
65.8
43.0 43.0
46.4 33.7
0.3 1.6
51.7
37.2
43.1
28.2 27.6
19.5 31.4
2.3 1.7
2.3 4.2 6.6
12.1
14.3
0.6
3.9
4.2 5.8
1.1 2.0 5.3 3.1 3.2
6.3 10.4
0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 1.7 1.5 0.3 1.3 2.4 3.6
6.9
10.6 14.0
6.0 8.1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
60
-62
19
70
-72
19
80
-82
19
90
-92
20
00
-02
20
05
-07
20
09
-11
19
60
-62
19
70
-72
19
80
-82
19
90
-92
20
00
-02
20
05
-07
20
09
-11
19
60
-62
19
70
-72
19
80
-82
19
90
-92
20
00
-02
20
05
-07
20
09
-11
MAIZE 3-year averages RICE 3-year averages WHEAT 3-year averages
Oceania
Africa
South & Central America & Caribbean
North America
Middle East
Former Soviet Union
Europe
Southeast Asia
South Asia
East Asia Maize Rice, milled Wheat
Page 22 of 33
Figure A2.2 Distribution of key cereal stocks through time, levels
Source: With data from USDA FAS
Table A2.1 Stock to use ratios for key cereals by region (maize, rice, wheat aggregated)
1960-62 1970-72 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2009-11 Relative to other periods, stocks (and
stocks relative to use), which dropped
over the 2005/07 period have been
rebuilt for the 2009/11 period; though
this has happened to a much greater
extent with wheat and rice than with
maize.
East Asia 11.9 21.5 37.6 64.8 58.2 27.7 33.6 South Asia 10.7 12.6 10.7 12.1 20.4 9.2 17.8 >20 – 30 Southeast Asia 4.8 7.2 11.3 9.0 13.6 15.2 17.3 >30 – 50 Europe 13.7 9.8 13.5 20.8 13.1 13.7 11.4 >50 Former Soviet Union 2.0 8.4 5.3 26.0 20.8 18.3 31.1 Middle East 9.9 15.9 23.7 24.5 25.7 24.7 24.3 North America 80.7 38.6 59.7 30.8 25.0 20.3 17.8 South & Central America & Caribbean 12.1 8.3 9.4 11.2 12.7 16.2 17.3 Africa 5.8 8.9 13.2 9.0 11.7 14.3 16.6 Oceania 42.8 57.8 88.3 75.8 84.8 72.8 99.9 WORLD 24.0 17.8 26.2 32.0 29.4 19.0 22.2 Source: With data from USDA FAS
0
50
100
150
200 1
96
0-6
2
19
70
-72
19
80
-82
19
90
-92
20
00
-02
20
05
-07
20
09
-11
19
60
-62
19
70
-72
19
80
-82
19
90
-92
20
00
-02
20
05
-07
20
09
-11
19
60
-62
19
70
-72
19
80
-82
19
90
-92
20
00
-02
20
05
-07
20
09
-11
MAIZE 3-year averages RICE 3-year averages WHEAT 3-year averages
Mil
lio
ns
of
ton
ne
s
Oceania
Africa
South & Central America & Caribbean
North America
Middle East
Former Soviet Union
Europe
Southeast Asia
South Asia
East Asia
Maize Rice, milled Wheat
Page 23 of 33
Annex 3 Maize, rice, wheat, and cassava – production and area
harvested
The following figures show how much production, yield, and harvested area for maize, rice,
wheat, and cassava has evolved from 1961 to 2010. Data is shown for global totals as well as for
3 aggregates — by the top 10 producers, exporters, and users for each crop. Table A3.1 shows
the groups used to calculate the top 10.
Table A3.1 Country groups used to produce figures A3.1 to A3.16
Top 10 by production (Avg 2006-2010) Cassava Maize Rice Wheat
Nigeria USA China China Brazil China India India Thailand Brazil Indonesia USA Indonesia Mexico Bangladesh Russia DR Congo Argentina Viet Nam France Ghana India Myanmar Canada Angola Indonesia Thailand Germany India France Philippines Pakistan Viet Nam Canada Brazil Turkey Mozambique South Africa Japan Ukraine
Top 10 by exporters (Avg 2005 - 2009) Cassava Maize Rice Wheat
Thailand USA Thailand USA Viet Nam Argentina Viet Nam Canada Indonesia France India France China, Hong Kong SAR Brazil USA Australia Netherlands China Pakistan Russia Costa Rica Hungary China Argentina Paraguay Ukraine Egypt Germany China India Uruguay Ukraine Belgium Paraguay Italy Kazakhstan Brazil South Africa Argentina UK
Top 10 by use (2005 - 2007) Cassava Maize Rice Wheat
DR Congo Mexico China China Nigeria China India India Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia USA Brazil India Bangladesh Russia India South Africa Viet Nam Pakistan U Rep Tanzania Brazil Philippines Turkey Mozambique Egypt Myanmar Iran Ghana United States of America Japan Egypt Uganda Nigeria Thailand Brazil Angola Ethiopia Brazil Italy
Source: Constructed with data from FAOSTAT
Note: For cassava export, where Thailand accounts for over 80% of exports, figures are aggregated for 7 countries, as
3 of the top 10 exporters recorded in FAOSTAT are non-producers (Hong Kong, the Netherlands, and Belgium).
Page 24 of 33
Maize production, area, and yield figures
Figure A3.1 Maize production, 1961 – 2010
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.2 Area under maize production, 1961 – 2010
FAOSTAT
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M h
ect
are
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M h
ect
are
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
Page 25 of 33
Figure A3.3 Maize yield, 1961 - 2010
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.4 Area and yield arranged by country cluster: MAIZE
FAOSTAT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
To
nn
es
pe
r h
ect
are
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area World - L axis, M ha Yield World - R axis, T/ha
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
60
70
80
90
100
110 1
96
1
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top producers - L axis, M ha
Yield Top producers - R axis, T/ha
2
3
4
5
6
7
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top exporters - L axis, M ha
Yield Top exporters - R axis, T/ha
2
3
4
5
6
60
70
80
90
100
110
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top users - L axis, M ha
Yield Top users - R axis, T/ha
Page 26 of 33
Rice production, area, & yield figures
Figure A3.5 Rice production, 1961 – 2010
[Note: *top users & top producers the same for rice]
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.6 Area under rice production, 1961 – 2010
FAOSTAT
120
220
320
420
520
620
720 1
96
1
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M t
on
ne
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M h
ect
are
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
Page 27 of 33
Figure A3.7 Rice yield, 1961 – 2010
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.8 Area and yield arranged by country cluster: RICE
FAOSTAT
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
To
nn
es
pe
r h
ect
are
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area World - L axis, M ha
Yield World - R axis, T/ha
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135 1
96
1
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top producers - L axis, M ha
Yield Top producers - R axis, T/ha
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top exporters - L axis, M ha Yield Top exporters - R axis, T/ha
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top users - L axis, M ha Yield Top users - R axis, T/ha
Page 28 of 33
Wheat production, area, & yield figures
Figure A3.9 Wheat production, 1961 – 2010
[Note: Wheat statistics appear to have breaks around 1992 owing to inclusion of Russia]
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.10 Area under wheat production, 1961 – 2010
FAOSTAT
20
120
220
320
420
520
620
720 1
96
1
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M t
on
ne
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
35
85
135
185
235
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M h
ect
are
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
Page 29 of 33
Figure A3.11 Wheat yield, 1961 – 2010
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.12 Area and yield arranged by country cluster: WHEAT
FAOSTAT
0.7
1.2
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.2
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
To
nn
es
pe
r h
ect
are
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
200
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
19
61
1
96
4
19
67
1
97
0
19
73
1
97
6
19
79
1
98
2
19
85
1
98
8
19
91
1
99
4
19
97
2
00
0
20
03
2
00
6
20
09
Area World - L axis, M ha
Yield World - R axis, T/ha
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 1
96
1
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top producers - L axis, M ha
Yield Top producers - R axis, T/ha
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top exporters - L axis, M ha
Yield Top exporters - R axis, T/ha
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top users - L axis, M ha
Yield Top users - R axis, T/ha
Page 30 of 33
Cassava production, area, and yield figures
Figure A3.13 Cassava production, 1961 – 2010
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.14 Area under cassava production, 1961 - 2010
FAOSTAT
20
70
120
170
220 1
96
1
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M t
on
ne
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
M h
ect
are
s
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
Page 31 of 33
Figure A3.15 Cassava yield, 1961 - 2010
FAOSTAT
Figure A3.16 Area and yield arranged by country cluster: CASSAVA
FAOSTAT
7
9
11
13
15
17 1
96
1
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
To
nn
es
pe
r h
ect
are
World
Top producers
Top exporters
Top users
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area World - L axis, M ha
Yield World - R axis, T/ha
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top producers - L axis, M ha
Yield Top producers - R axis, T/ha
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top exporters - L axis, M ha Yield Top exporters - R axis, T/ha
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Area Top users - L axis, M ha
Yield Top users - R axis, T/ha
Page 32 of 33
Annex 4 Cereals used for animal feed, 1990/91 – 2011/12
Figure A4.1 Maize used for feed, 1990/91 to 2011/12
Source: From USDA FAS data
Globally, maize used for feed saw a small dip in 2008/09. North American maize use for feed
actually decreased from 2007/08 to 2011/12. Other regions saw increases over this period,
with the exception of Europe, which saw a very small decline.
Figure A4.2 Wheat used for feed, 1990/91 to 2011/12
Source: From USDA FAS data
Globally, wheat for feed use appears to have been more than usually volatile from about
2003/04 to the current time. It has also increased over the last few years. These increases have
been seen in most regions, except for Europe. East Asia has seen relatively the largest increases
in using wheat for feed.
0
100
200
300
400
500 1
99
0/1
99
1
19
91
/19
92
19
92
/19
93
19
93
/19
94
19
94
/19
95
19
95
/19
96
19
96
/19
97
19
97
/19
98
19
98
/19
99
19
99
/20
00
20
00
/20
01
20
01
/20
02
20
02
/20
03
20
03
/20
04
20
04
/20
05
20
05
/20
06
20
06
/20
07
20
07
/20
08
20
08
/20
09
20
09
/20
10
20
10
/20
11
20
11
/20
12
M t
on
ne
s
Maize, feed use East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Europe
Former Soviet Union
Middle East
North America
South & Central America & Caribbean Africa
Oceania
WORLD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19
90
/19
91
19
91
/19
92
19
92
/19
93
19
93
/19
94
19
94
/19
95
19
95
/19
96
19
96
/19
97
19
97
/19
98
19
98
/19
99
19
99
/20
00
20
00
/20
01
20
01
/20
02
20
02
/20
03
20
03
/20
04
20
04
/20
05
20
05
/20
06
20
06
/20
07
20
07
/20
08
20
08
/20
09
20
09
/20
10
20
10
/20
11
20
11
/20
12
M t
on
ne
s
Wheat, feed use East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Europe
Former Soviet Union
Middle East
North America
South & Central America & Caribbean Africa
Oceania
WORLD
Page 33 of 33
Figure A4.3 Other cereals used for feed, 1990/91 to 2011/12
Source: From USDA FAS data
Feed use of other cereals — such as sorghum, barley, oats, etc. — has been declining over the
long-term. After 2007/08 it picked up in some regions, including South & Central America & the
Caribbean; Africa (where it was already rising since about 2000); and South Asia.
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
90
/19
91
19
91
/19
92
19
92
/19
93
19
93
/19
94
19
94
/19
95
19
95
/19
96
19
96
/19
97
19
97
/19
98
19
98
/19
99
19
99
/20
00
20
00
/20
01
20
01
/20
02
20
02
/20
03
20
03
/20
04
20
04
/20
05
20
05
/20
06
20
06
/20
07
20
07
/20
08
20
08
/20
09
20
09
/20
10
20
10
/20
11
20
11
/20
12
M t
on
ne
s Other cereals, feed use
East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Europe
Former Soviet Union
Middle East
North America
South & Central America & Caribbean Africa
Oceania
WORLD