Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentFood and Nutrition Security and the Important Role of Agricultural DevelopmentMatin QaimKeynote at the KfW Development Finance Forum9-10 July 2015, FrankfurtDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentOverviewPart I: The Problem1. The Triple Burden of Malnutrition2. Can We Stop Worrying About the Quantity of Food Production?Part II: Possible Solutions3. Direct Nutrition Interventions4. Promoting Pro-Poor Growth5. Agriculture-Nutrition LinkagesPAS Study Week 20092Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development3Worldwide around 795 million people are chronically undernourishedSource: FAO (2015).Asia65%Latin America4%Rich countries2%Africa29%3Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentRecent trends Progress has been made:o Number of undernourished down from 1 billion in 1990o Proportion decreased from 23% to 13% However, progress is too slow and geographically uneven In Sub-Sahara Africa, 23% of the population remain undernourished Globally, 161 million children under age 5 are stunted (25%); 51 million are wasted (8%) Even in economically fast-growing countries like India, childhood undernutrition remains high PAS Study Week 20094Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentMicronutrient malnutrition is even more widespread (hidden hunger)PAS Study Week 2009501234567Calories Iron Zinc Iodine Vitamin ABillion peopleSufficient DeficientSources: WHO (2015), FAO (2015), IFPRI (2014).Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development6Prevalence of overweight and obesity0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80South AfricaLiberiaKenyaEthiopiaEgyptThailandIranIndonesiaIndiaChinaVenezuelaUSAMexicoCanadaBrazilPolandGreeceFranceEnglandGermanyAfricaAsiaAmericaEuropePercent of adult populationOverweightObeseSource: IASO (2013).6Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentHealth consequences of undernutritionPAS Study Week 200970 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Neonatal disordersDiarrheaPneumoniaOther infectiousdiseases% of child deathsProportion due to undernutrition TotalSource: Black et al. (2013).Causes of child mortalityInfectious diseases, child mortality, impaired physical and mental development, lost work productivity and quality of liveDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentTop-20 risk factors for global health burden PAS Study Week 200980% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%Occupational injuriesDrug useDiet low in omega-3Diet low in vegetablesDiet low in whole grainsHigh cholesterolSuboptimal breastfeedingIron deficiencyDiet low in nuts and seedsDiet high in sodiumLow physical activityAir pollution (outdoor)Childhood underweightHigh plasma glucoseHigh body mass indexDiet low in fruitsAir pollution (in-house)Alcohol useTobacco smokingHigh blood pressureSource: Lim et al. (2012).In many developing countries, childhood underweight and micronutrient deficiencies are still among the top-5 risk factorsDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development2. Can We Stop Worrying About the Quantity of Food Production? The world currently has enough food, so that nobody would have to go hungry. With more equal access, every person could have a diet with >2500 kcal per day. This leads many to conclude that hunger and undernutrition today are only distribution problems. The recognition that malnutrition is not primarily about calories but more about dietary quality contributes to the notion that production increases are not required anymore. However, a focus on dietary quality cannot replace continued productivity growth. Both are required. PAS Study Week 20099Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentDevelopments over timeSource: FAO (2014).1001502002503003501961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010IndexArable landPopulationFood production10Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development0501001502002503003504004501960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000US$/tMaizeWheatDevelopment of grain prices (1960-2000)11Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development050100150200250300350400450Jan-00JulJan-01JulJan-02JulJan-03JulJan-04JulJan-05JulJan-06JulJan-07JulJan-08JulJan-09JulJan-10JulJan-11JulJan-12JulJan-13JulJan-14JulJan-15US$/tMaizeWheat12Price developments (2000-2015)Source: EU Commission (2015).12Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development012345671960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Global cereal yield (t/ha)Challenges until 2050Demand projectionResource scarcityClimate changeInvestment in rural infrastructure13Investment inagricultural R&DDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentPart II: Possible Solutions3. Direct Nutrition Interventions4. Promoting Pro-Poor Growth5. Agriculture-Nutrition LinkagesPAS Study Week 200914Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development3. Direct Nutrition InterventionsPAS Study Week 200915 Direct nutrition interventions are often required to break the vicious circle Women/ children particular target groups Common interventions include:o Micronutrient supplementationo Complementary feedingo Breastfeeding programso Nutrition and health education Long-term social payoff can be substantial Scaling up investments by $10 billion per year could reduce child mortality by 15% and stunting by 20% (Bhutta et al. 2013) Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentBenefit-cost ratios of nutrition interventions PAS Study Week 2009160102030405060DRCBurundiLiberiaNigerMalawiTogoMozambiqueMaliEthiopiaBurkina FasoNepalRwandaYemenUgandaChadBeninGhanaZambiaBangladeshKenyaSenegalCameroonSudanNigeriaPakistanIndiaVietnamPhilippinesIndonesiaSouth AfricaSri LankaMedian B/C ratio: 16Sources: Hoddinott et al. (2013), IFPRI (2014).Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development4. Promoting Pro-Poor GrowthPAS Study Week 20091701020304050600 5.000 10.000 15.000Proportion of people undernourishedGNI per capita (US$)Relationship between mean income and undernutritionSource: Data from FAO (2015) and World Bank (2015).Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentInvestments in rural infrastructure promote pro-poor growthPAS Study Week 200918-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0EducationAgricultural research and technologyRoad infrastructureTelephoneElectricityIrrigationReduction in number of poor per 1000$ investmentExample from ChinaSource: Fan et al. (2004).Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development5. Agriculture-Nutrition Linkages The focus on a few major cereal crops during the green revolution has helped to keep staple foods affordable for consumers and to lift many farm families out of poverty However, this focus has also narrowed down dietary diversity, causing other types of nutrition problems (and loss of biodiversity) Nutrition-sensitive agricultural systems:o Broadened focus in agricultural R&Do Reduce policy disincentives for more diverse production (e.g., prices, subsidies, marketing policies)o Promote markets for neglected crop/animal products More diverse food systems can help reduce triple burden of malnutrition (incl. obesity)PAS Study Week 200919Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentProduction diversity and dietary diversity Dietary diversity is a good indicator for food security and micronutrient status Many of the undernourished are smallholder farmers Common assumption: promoting production diversity on smallholder farms improves household nutrition Little empirical evidence to support this assumption Smallholders are not pure subsistence producers; market transactions make relationship more complexo Production diversity may be associated with foregone income benefits from specializationo Role of off-farm incomeo Who controls different types of incomes (gender)?PAS Study Week 200920Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentFactors influencing dietary diversity in smallholder householdsPAS Study Week 200921Pooled (n=8230)Indonesia(n=674)Kenya(n=397)Ethiopia(n=2045)Malawi(n=5114)Production diversity 0.9***5.4***0.3 0.2 1.5***PD squared -0.01*-0.7***0.01 0.01 -0.03**Market access 4.5***-- -- 4.2*4.7***Off-farm income 3.9***-0.9 5.9**7.3**8.3***PD X Market access -0.5***-- -- -0.4**-0.6***Regression results (% interpretation)The dependent variable is the household dietary diversity score, including 12 food groups. Production diversity is a count of all crop/livestock species produced. Not all variables shown for brevity. *** p