FOCUS MODEL OVERVIEWCLASS TWODenver Regional Council of GovernmentsJune 30, 2011

Notes http://www.drcog.org/index.cfm?page=Foc

usTechnicalResources Next week’s class is in Independence Pass

from 2-3 PM; New Go To Webinar next week On-going classes through August 4;

Thursdays 2-3 PM in Monarch Tentative Schedule: Model Steps July 7

How to Run the Model July 14 Theoretical Underpinning July 21SQL Database July 28????? August 4

Review of General Concepts 1. Logit Models are models that make assign probabilities to

a set of choices for an individual from a list of discrete choices.

2. The actual choice is made using a monte carlo process. 3. Travel in the model is made on a tour-level, and then a

trip level. 4. We can divide the model into four stages. 5. We use four types of code in the model: T-SQL, C#,

GISDK, and Java. 6. Much of the input and output data is stored in SQL Server. 7. We still have to run parts of our old GISDK code for path

building, skimming and assignment. 8. We are doing this because we can get much finer detail

and answer planning questions better using the model.

Focus Model Flow: 28 StepsOutside The Speed Feedback Loop: Run Once-STAGE 1GISDK called from C#:GISDK PreprocessJava:3. Population SynthesizerC#4. PopSyn Output Processor5. Size Sum Variable Calculator

STAGE 2 GISDK called from C#:For DIA, I-E, E-E and Commercial Trips1. DRCOG Multi-Period Highway Preprocess 2. DRCOG Multi-Period Transit Preprocess3. DRCOG Transit Preprocess4. Trip Generation5. Highway and Transit Skimming6. Trip Distribution7. Mode Choice

STAGE 3 C# Regular Trips8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day Simulation12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD17. Tour Primary Destination Choice18. Tour Priority Assignment

STAGE 4 GISDK called from C#:28. Highway and Transit Assignment

FEEDBACK

Focus Model Flow: Stage 1STAGE 1:

Make Population

And Network

STAGE 2:Run GISDK to Mode Choice

STAGE 3: C#

Logit Models to

Create Trips

STAGE 4: GISDK

Assignment

FEEDBACK

STAGE 1: Make Population and Network

Java: Population Synthesizer C# to process in database: Size

Sum Variable Calculator; PopSyn Output Processor

GISDK called from C#: GISDK Preprocess

Creating networks for example

Population Synthesizer

ACS or PUMS Disaggregate Data

Aggregate Data that We Need to Match:Economic Forecasts, Land Use Forecasts

Disaggregate Population With the Right Portions Matching the Economic and Land Use Forecasts

Questions?

Example Family:Mother, Age 33Part Time Service WorkerFather, Age 34Full Time Education WorkerSon, Age 4Pre-School StudentFamily Income : $61,000

People come out as disaggregate unique entities with many characteristics.

Data Gets Processed into a Database Structure

Database Structure Created and FilledPeople

Database Structure Created and FilledPlaces

What are:Tours, Half Tours, Half Tour Stops, Trips

STORE

HOME WORK

Database Structure Created and NOT Filled YET

Travel

Household Monte Carlo PopSyn assigns the zone they live in.

Then the model randomly assign the households to a point within the zone.

Give Each Household a Housing Unit to Live in. A disaggregate X-Y point

GISDK:Preprocess

Socio-economic Inputs

Area Type

Parking Cost

Network Processing & Data Preparation

Highway

Skimming

Transit

Skimming

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Mode Choice

Highway

Assignment

Transit Assignment

Highway Network Inputs

Transit NetworkInputs

Time-of-Day

Stage One is done. Everything outside feedback loop is done.

Now we have : 1. A synthesized population 2. A database filled with point locations

and people, model variables 3. A set of highway and transit networks

ready for use.

Focus Model Flow: Stage 2STAGE 1:

Make Population

And Network

STAGE 2:Run GISDK to Mode Choice

STAGE 3: C#

Logit Models to

Create Trips

STAGE 4: GISDK

Assignment

FEEDBACK

GISDK:For Skimmingand External/Commercial Trips

Socio-economic Inputs

Area Type

Parking Cost

Network Processing & Data Preparation

Highway

Skimming

Transit

Skimming

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Mode Choice

Highway

Assignment

Transit Assignment

Highway Network Inputs

Transit NetworkInputs

Time-of-Day

Stage 2:GISDK Through Mode Choice

All C#, trip-making components use travel time and distance skims for highway and transit

Internal-External, External-External, trips destined to DIA and Commercial Trips created from Compass GISDK

Later these trips get combined with the regular Internal-Internal Trips from C# into matrices by time-of-day by mode

Skim matrices(distance)

Time Periods for Skims TIMES OF DAY Highway Times of Day Transit Times of Day AM1: 6:30 – 7:00 AM; AM: 6:30- 9:00 AM AM2: 7:00 – 8:00 AM; AM3: 8:00 – 9:00 AM; OP2: 9:00 – 11:30 AM; MD: 9:00 AM- 3:00 PM PM OP3: 11:30 AM – 3:00 PM; PM1: 3:00 – 5:00 PM; PM: 3:00 PM -7:00 PM PM2: 5:00 – 6:00 PM; PM3: 6:00 – 7:00 PM; OP4: 7:00 – 11:00 PM. EL: 7:00 PM – 6:00 AM OP1: 11:00 PM – 6:30 AM;

Trip Tables (this is commercial)

GISDK Through Mode Choice So we run trip generation, trip

distribution, and mode choice for the funky trips

This is run from C# calling GISDK. The C# pops open a TransCAD window

and calls the macros that have been specified to run.

Stage 2 is done. Now we have a LOT of matrices: All highway and transit skims A set of commercial and external trips O-

Ds A set of DIA trips O-Ds and modes And all stage one outputs: population,

networks, a ready database.

Focus Model Flow: Stage 3

STAGE 1: PREPROCES

S

STAGE 2 :GISDK Through

Mode Choice

STAGE 3: C#

Logit Models to

Create Trips

STAGE 4: GISDK

Assignment

FEEDBACK

Talking time: Let’s talk about ourselves

What are the set of choices that make you travel like you do? What is the highest priority? What is unique about you that guides your

choices? What are the smaller choices you make

each day? What strange behaviors to you have that

would be really hard to model?

The steps in Stage 3. Mostly Logit Models. The heart of the model.

8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice 10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation 11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day

Simulation 12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier 13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location 14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice 15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice 16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD 17. Tour Primary Destination Choice 18. Tour Priority Assignment

Long Term Choices

8. Regular Work Location Choice

9. Regular School Location Choice

10. Auto Availability11. Aggregate Logsum Generation

Long Term Choices: Regular Workplace Location Where will I work? Final Choice: Two nests- Work at Home, Work

Outside HomeZone and X,Y Location of WorkType of Model: Nested Logit

Inputs: (What do you think predicts?)Number of Jobs by type in in a zoneDistance from Home to WorkFull Time Worker or Part Time WorkerJob SectorAccessibility of Work Location from Home

Here’s how the choice looks, sent back to the database Persons table:

Long term choice 2:Regular School Location

Final Choice:Zone and X,Y Location of SchoolType of Model: Multinomial LogitInputs: (What do you think predicts?)

Grade Level in SchoolDistance to School from HomeIncome GroupOlder Sibling’s School