fo spin overview
TRANSCRIPT
8/4/2019 FO Spin Overview
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Fortune Brands (FO) - Post Spin (BEAM) and (FBHS)
52-Week Ran e $46.58 - $65.48Mkt. Cap./Shares $8,555m/156.6m (2/3 BEAM & 1/3 FBHS)
Golf Business sold - $1.1b used to pay down debtBEAM maintains $0.76/share dividend
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$500m tax-free dividend to BEAM to pay down debtRecord Date October 20th – Begin Trading October 4th
Recommend Bu
in Prior to S in $54 - u side from the mid $60’s to around $80
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A Word on Special Situations - SpinoffsApply Joel Greenblatt frame work Insiders – Bill Ackman Activist Track Record
Bit off more than he could chew –ala Target?anagement as een cooperat ve
Understandable Businesses79% Institutionally owned - selling pressure on FBHSSpinoffs in General Beat the Market - Pick Your Spots
,(brand appeal/pricing power) and is being unyoked from alow margin, low moat, downtrodden & housing dependent
more capital intensive business FBHSEntrepreneurial Forces & Management Incentives more positively aligned(Generally) Acquisitions good for CEO’s – Divestitures good for shareholders
Rumor Mill - Takeover interest in BEAM & Private Equity Interest in FBHS
Catalyst/Event Driven – likely to see play out in shorter time framethan other value positions –Time Arbitrage
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BEAM Pure-Play Spirits Industry Leader
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BEAM2nd Largest U.S. spirits company – behind Diageo
4th Largest spirits company globally
Multi le market leadin brands includin Jim Beam & Maker’s Mark
A word on moral dilemmaValid arguments by some - I won’t quarrel with that
Not illegal to be stupid, ultimately more the person than the product
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Certain Brand, Expectation, Experience - not just cheapest
People will continue to drink & tech won’t change it
Bill Ackman is smarter than me
Wildcard – Attractive takeover target (Diageo needs a good bourbon)
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BEAMFreed from lower margin spinoff
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BEAMGrowing Market and Market Share
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FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security
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FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security
‘Fortunes’ intimately linked to the housing market & cycles
Not a commodity like oil, but also less likely to brag about your new
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Can streamline & align incentives – at end of day still squeezed by competition – headwinds
How to kill the business – been playing out in real time
Still around, worst is over, likely slow drawn out recovery
Leader in many of its products
Established distribution channels
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FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security
This too shall pass…
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FBHS Fortune Brands Home & SecurityA orse t at can count s a smart orse, ut pro a y not a goo mat teac er…
Having said that, they have a good position in their industry.
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FBHS Fortune Brands Home & SecurityA orse t at can count s a smart orse, ut pro a y not a goo mat teac er…
Having said that, they have a good position in their industry.
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So – How do you play it?Post S in Bu BEAM immediatel and wait for tar et ran e or takeover
Buy FBHS if indiscriminate selling drives artificially low
Pre Spin Buy FO
Bill Ackman smarter than me – track record
oug more recen y
Parent is attractive – ride out forced selling in spin - wait for ‘normal’
Management is cooperative – history of spin offs
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ValuationBEAM after tax EBIT $544.3m
EBIT rowth 11.2% FV 5yr = $642mDiscount Rate 6%PV 5yr = $479m14x multiple = $6,706m/156.9m shares = $43(Note: 0.76 dividend)
Takeover multiple 18-20 = $55
FBHS after tax EBIT $155.4m
7x multiple = $1,088m/156.9m shares = $7
EBITDA =$291.9m9x = $2 627m/156.9m shares = $17
Golf $1,100m/156.9 shares = $7
Current $54-$55
ow rea even – not muc owns eMid $67High $79 Includes Takeover of BEAM
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