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TRANSCRIPT
FNC Residential Price Index
The Industry’s First Hedonic Residential Price Index
S E P T E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 1 0
2
Program
• FNC, Inc.
• Overview of Measuring Residential Prices
• FNC Residential Price Index
• Examples
• Questions
© 2010 FNC, Inc.
3
Speakers
• Robert Dorsey
• FNC Chief Analytic & Data Officer/Co-Founder
• Carol Luitjens
• Chief Marketing Officer, FNC
5
Conference Web Page
• Today’s PowerPoint
• Audio
• Questions
The FNC Residential Price Index
Robert Dorsey
Chief Analytic & Data Officer
Co-Founder
7
Measuring Residential Real Estate Prices
• The real estate market is the largest financial
market in the world.
• Yet, there has not been a satisfactory method
for measuring prices.
• Currently, the methods available are:
• Repeat Sales Index
• Median Sales Price
• Model of Price Distribution
8
Residential Price Indexes
• Repeat Sales Indexes
• OFHEO (now FHFA House Price Index)
• Based on conforming loans from GSEs
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• Based on data from Fidelity’s public record data
• Loan Performance HPI
• Based on First American’s public record data
• Other Repeat Sales Indexes
9
Repeat Sales Indexes - Limitations
• Based on sales in the current period matched
to corresponding previous sales
• Many times there is no previous sales price
(new construction, public record limitations)
• Volatile estimates
• Requires large geographical region
• Strong assumptions – property and
neighborhood have not changed
• Typically reported for a three-month period
10
Sales Examples - East Coast and West Coast
Total Properties in Charlotte MSA unsold in 2009 (96.2%)
Properties with sale in 2009 but no prior sale (2.1%)
Properties with sale in 2009 with prior sale (1.7%)
Total Properties in LA MSA unsold in 2009 (94.3%)
Properties with sale in 2009 but no prior sale (2.1%)
Properties with sale in 2009 with prior sale (3.6%)
Charlotte, NC Los Angeles, CA
11
Alternatives to Repeat Sales?
• Median Sales Price
• Published monthly by National Association of
Realtors
• Simply the median (middle) price of all sales
reported in the current period
• Not a reliable aggregate measure of prices
but serves as a general indicator of price
direction
12
Alternatives to Repeat Sales?
• Models of Housing Prices – RPX by Radian
is one example
• Historical price behavior is modeled for each
region
• A statistical model of past prices is created
and then re-estimated each period based on
current sales
• Creates an measure of overall prices based
on historical distributions of prices
• Past “best-fit” models may or may not be
good indicators of current price behavior
13
Alternatives to Repeat Sales?
• Hedonic Index
• Based on all properties with sufficient data
each period
• Very stable
• Best representation of residential price
changes
• Requires extensive data on properties. Such
detailed data has historically not been
available
14
Hedonic Index
• FNC is now providing an hedonic index.
• The index is based on the blended data in the
National Collateral Database™.
• The index is published monthly on the 15th of
the month with a one-month lag (July is
currently online).
• Each month’s index is based on only that
month’s activity (not a three-month moving
window).
15
Where Does the Data Come From?
• FNC has been deploying systems to order
and deliver valuation products for most of the
major mortgage lenders since 1999.
• Once received and reviewed, most of the
lenders share their valuation data with FNC
for the purpose of building a comprehensive
source of residential property data.
• The appraisal data provides a real-time
source of sales and property characteristic
information that is not otherwise available.
16
National Collateral Database
• The property record is made up of three basic
parts:
• Assessor records = Physical characteristics
and basic identification information.
• Recorder’s information = Information on the
sale: who, how much and when.
• Appraisals = Better, more accurate, more
complete physical characteristics.
17
Data Blending
County Assessor Data
County Recordings Comp from Appraisal
Full Appraisal
National Collateral Database
18
National Collateral Database
• Assessor Data Counties 3,125 out of 3146 = 99%
• Sales Data Counties 2,482 out of 3146 = 79%
• Counties with Appraisal Data 3,113 of 3146 = 99%
• Total NCD Population 152,652,921
• Recording Transactions 424,236,744
• Parcels w/ Foreclosure Activity 947,615 (Past 90 days)
• Appraisal-Based Data Records approx. 78 million
19
Appraisal Concentration in NCD
20
FNC Residential Price Index
• Now that FNC has a sufficient mass of
detailed data on residential properties, FNC
has constructed an hedonic index.
• An academic article was written describing
the methodology and the justification for the
manner in which the index was built.
• Following the peer review process the article
was published in June in the Journal of
Housing Economics.
21
Peer-Reviewed Journal Article
22
FNC Residential Price Index
• Features of the Index
• The index incorporates spatial relationships
so that nearby sales have more influence on
the attribute values than more distant sales.
• Attribute values are allowed to change slowly
over time to reflect changes in tastes.
23
www.fncrpi.com
24
MSA Indexes Produced Each Month
AL-Birmingham FL-Orlando OH-Cleveland
AZ-Phoenix FL-Port St. Lucie OH-Columbus
AZ-Tucson FL-Sarasota OK-Oklahoma City
CA-Bakersfield FL-Tampa OR-Portland
CA-Fresno GA-Atlanta PA-NJ-Allentown,Bethlehem,Easton
CA-LosAngeles ID-Boise City PA-Philadelphia
CA-Riverside IL-Chicago PA-Pittsburgh
CA-Sacramento IN-Indianapolis RI-Providence
CA-San Jose MA-Boston TN-Memphis
CA-SanDiego MD-Baltimore TN-Nashville
CA-SanFrancisco MI-Detroit TX-Austin
CA-Stockton MN-Minneapolis TX-Dallas
CA-Ventura MO-KS-Kansas City TX-El Paso
CO-Denver MO-St Louis TX-Houston
CT-Hartford NC-Charlotte TX-San Antonio
DC-Washington NC-Raleigh UT-Salt Lake
FL-Cape Coral, Fort Myers NV-LasVegas VA-Richmond
FL-Jacksonville NY-NewYork VA-Virginia Beach
FL-Lakeland NY-Rochester WA-Seattle
FL-Miami OH-Cincinnati WI-Milwaukee
25
FNC Residential Price Index
Four Cities Compared
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-0
0S
ep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-0
1S
ep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-0
2S
ep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-0
4S
ep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-0
5S
ep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-0
6S
ep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-0
7S
ep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-0
8S
ep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-0
9S
ep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-1
0
AZ-Phoenix NV-LasVegas FL-Miami MO-St Louis
26
FNC Residential Price Index – Florida Cities
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-00
Sep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-01
Sep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-02
Sep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Jul-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-04
Sep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-05
Sep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-06
Sep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-07
Sep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-08
Sep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-09
Sep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-10
FL-Miami FL-Orlando FL-Tampa FL-Sarasota
FL-Lakeland FL-Port St. Lucie FL-Jacksonville FL-Cape Coral, Fort Myers
27
FNC Residential Price Index – Texas Cities
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-00
Sep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-01
Sep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-02
Sep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Jul-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-04
Sep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-05
Sep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-06
Sep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-07
Sep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-08
Sep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-09
Sep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-10
TX-Austin TX-Dallas TX-El Paso TX-Houston TX-San Antonio
28
FNC Residential Price Index – Composite Indexes
Composite 10Boston, MA
Chicago, IL
Denver, CO
Las Vegas, NV
Los Angeles, CA
Miami, FL
New York, NY
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
Washington, DC
Composite 20Atlanta, GA
Charlotte, NC
Cleveland, OH
Dallas, TX
Detroit, MI
Minneapolis, MN
Phoenix, AZ
Portland, OR
Seattle, WA
Tampa, FL
Composite 30Baltimore, MD
Cincinnati , OH
Columbus, OH
Houston, TX
Nashville, TN
Orlando, FL
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
St Louis, MO
San Antonio, TX
29
FNC Residential Price Index
National Composite Indexes
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-00
Sep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-01
Sep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-02
Sep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Jul-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-04
Sep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-05
Sep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-06
Sep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-07
Sep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-08
Sep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-09
Sep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-10
COMP-10 COMP-20 COMP-30
30
FNC Residential Price Index – Atlanta
Comparison with FHFA HPI
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
00-Q
1
00-Q
2
00-Q
3
00-Q
4
01-Q
1
01-Q
2
01-Q
3
01-Q
4
02-Q
1
02-Q
2
02-Q
3
02-Q
4
03-Q
1
03-Q
2
03-Q
3
03-Q
4
04-Q
1
04-Q
2
04-Q
3
04-Q
4
05-Q
1
05-Q
2
05-Q
3
05-Q
4
06-Q
1
06-Q
2
06-Q
3
06-Q
4
07-Q
1
07-Q
2
07-Q
3
07-Q
4
08-Q
1
08-Q
2
08-Q
3
08-Q
4
09-Q
1
09-Q
2
09-Q
3
09-Q
4
10-Q
1
10-Q
2
FNC FHFA
31
FNC Residential Price Index – Atlanta
Comparison with S&P Case-Shiller Index
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-0
0S
ep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-0
1S
ep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-0
2S
ep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-0
4S
ep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-0
5S
ep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-0
6S
ep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-0
7S
ep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-0
8S
ep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-0
9S
ep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-1
0
FNC RPI S&P C-S
32
FNC Residential Price Index – Miami
Comparison with FHFA HPI
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
00-Q
1
00-Q
2
00-Q
3
00-Q
4
01-Q
1
01-Q
2
01-Q
3
01-Q
4
02-Q
1
02-Q
2
02-Q
3
02-Q
4
03-Q
1
03-Q
2
03-Q
3
03-Q
4
04-Q
1
04-Q
2
04-Q
3
04-Q
4
05-Q
1
05-Q
2
05-Q
3
05-Q
4
06-Q
1
06-Q
2
06-Q
3
06-Q
4
07-Q
1
07-Q
2
07-Q
3
07-Q
4
08-Q
1
08-Q
2
08-Q
3
08-Q
4
09-Q
1
09-Q
2
09-Q
3
09-Q
4
10-Q
1
10-Q
2
FNC RPI FHFA
33
FNC Residential Price Index – Miami
Comparison with S&P Case-Shiller Index
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-00
Sep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-01
Sep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-02
Sep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Jul-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-04
Sep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-05
Sep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-06
Sep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-07
Sep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-08
Sep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-09
Sep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-10
FNC RPI S&P C-S
34
FNC Residential Price Index – San Diego
Comparison with FHFA HPI
50
100
150
200
250
300
00-Q
1
00-Q
2
00-Q
3
00-Q
4
01-Q
1
01-Q
2
01-Q
3
01-Q
4
02-Q
1
02-Q
2
02-Q
3
02-Q
4
03-Q
1
03-Q
2
03-Q
3
03-Q
4
04-Q
1
04-Q
2
04-Q
3
04-Q
4
05-Q
1
05-Q
2
05-Q
3
05-Q
4
06-Q
1
06-Q
2
06-Q
3
06-Q
4
07-Q
1
07-Q
2
07-Q
3
07-Q
4
08-Q
1
08-Q
2
08-Q
3
08-Q
4
09-Q
1
09-Q
2
09-Q
3
09-Q
4
10-Q
1
10-Q
2
FNC RPI FHFA
35
FNC Residential Price Index – San Diego
Comparison with S&P Case-Shiller Index
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-0
0S
ep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-0
1S
ep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-0
2S
ep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-0
4S
ep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-0
5S
ep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-0
6S
ep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-0
7S
ep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-0
8S
ep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-0
9S
ep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-1
0
FNC RPI S&P C-S
36
FNC Residential Price Index
LA – Zip Code Level
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-00
Sep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-01
Sep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-02
Sep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Jul-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-04
Sep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-05
Sep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-06
Sep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-07
Sep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-08
Sep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-09
Sep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-10
91411 90068 90008
37
FNC Residential Price Index
LA – Zip Code Level
91411
$550,000
90068
$952,000
90008
$350,000
38
FNC Residential Price Index
Atlanta – Number of Bedrooms
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-0
0M
ar-
00
May-0
0Jul-00
Sep-0
0N
ov-0
0Jan-0
1M
ar-
01
May-0
1Jul-01
Sep-0
1N
ov-0
1Jan-0
2M
ar-
02
May-0
2Jul-02
Sep-0
2N
ov-0
2Jan-0
3M
ar-
03
May-0
3Jul-03
Sep-0
3N
ov-0
3Jan-0
4M
ar-
04
May-0
4Jul-04
Sep-0
4N
ov-0
4Jan-0
5M
ar-
05
May-0
5Jul-05
Sep-0
5N
ov-0
5Jan-0
6M
ar-
06
May-0
6Jul-06
Sep-0
6N
ov-0
6Jan-0
7M
ar-
07
May-0
7Jul-07
Sep-0
7N
ov-0
7Jan-0
8M
ar-
08
May-0
8Jul-08
Sep-0
8N
ov-0
8Jan-0
9M
ar-
09
May-0
9Jul-09
Sep-0
9N
ov-0
9Jan-1
0M
ar-
10
May-1
0Jul-10
GA-Atlanta GA-Atlanta(Bed < 3) GA-Atlanta(Bed > 3)
39
FNC Residential Price Index – July Data
July 10 June 10 May 10 April 10 March 10
(vs. Jun 10) (vs. May 10) (vs. Apr 10) (vs. Mar 10) (vs. Feb 10)
60-MSA Composite (0.9%) 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0%
30-MSA Composite (0.6%) 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9%
20-MSA Composite (0.5%) 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
10-MSA Composite 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7%
FNC Residential Price Index
Month-over-Month (MOM% )
July 10 June 10 May 10 April 10 March 10
(vs. Jul 09) (vs. Jun 09) (vs. May 09) (vs. Apr 09) (vs. Mar 09)
60-MSA Composite (2.9%) (2.5%) (2.3%) (2.6%) (3.0%)
30-MSA Composite (2.9%) (2.9%) (2.4%) (2.8%) (3.2%)
20-MSA Composite (2.7%) (2.8%) (2.4%) (2.8%) (3.2%)
10-MSA Composite (1.7%) (2.5%) (1.8%) (2.2%) (2.4%)
FNC Residential Price Index
Year-over-Year (YOY% )
Month-to-Month Composite Price Changes
Year-to-Year Composite Price Changes
40
FNC Residential Price Index – Historical Changes
(16.0%)
(12.0%)
(8.0%)
(4.0%)
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10
30-MSA Composite RPI YOY% 30-MSA Composite RPI
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Worst-Performing MSAs
Worst-Performing MSAs July 10 RPI
(Jan 2000=100) 4-Year Cumulative Annualized 3 1/2-Year Cumulative Annualized
1 Cape Coral-Fort Myers 87.2 (70.0%) (26.0%) 113.8% 28.0%
2 Stockton-CA 103.7 (65.9%) (23.6%) 90.0% 23.1%
3 Port St Lucie-Fort Pierce 112.3 (58.9%) (19.9%) 106.1% 26.4%
4 Las Vegas 95.5 (57.5%) (19.2%) 87.9% 22.7%
5 Riverside 132.2 (57.0%) (19.0%) 119.2% 29.0%
6 Phoenix 93.6 (55.3%) (18.2%) 78.5% 20.7%
7 Bakersfield-CA 135.2 (54.5%) (17.9%) 138.7% 32.6%
8 Fresno 146.4 (53.4%) (17.4%) 119.0% 28.9%
9 Orlando 115.0 (50.5%) (16.1%) 87.4% 22.6%
10 Sacramento 140.0 (50.1%) (15.9%) 76.1% 20.1%
11 Miami 135.6 (50.0%) (15.9%) 98.1% 24.8%
12 Lakeland-FL 106.7 (45.8%) (14.2%) 73.2% 19.5%
13 Boise City 104.6 (45.3%) (14.0%) 75.6% 20.0%
14 San Francisco 146.1 (43.7%) (13.4%) 64.9% 17.6%
15 Tampa 131.2 (41.0%) (12.3%) 74.3% 19.8%
16 Ventura-CA 171.1 (40.1%) (12.0%) 88.3% 22.8%
17 Sarasota-FL 142.9 (38.6%) (11.5%) 70.6% 18.9%
18 San Diego 171.9 (36.5%) (10.7%) 61.0% 16.7%
19 Los Angeles 191.8 (35.8%) (10.5%) 105.7% 26.4%
20 Detroit 77.3 (34.9%) (10.2%) 3.1% 1.0%
21 San Jose 134.2 (34.9%) (10.2%) 54.2% 15.1%
22 Tucson 132.1 (32.1%) (9.2%) 66.7% 18.0%
23 Minneapolis 127.3 (31.1%) (8.9%) 28.3% 8.4%
24 Jacksonville 124.9 (30.9%) (8.8%) 49.8% 14.0%
25 Providence 157.8 (29.5%) (8.4%) 49.3% 13.9%
26 Washington 181.9 (26.7%) (7.5%) 90.1% 23.2%
27 Atlanta 105.7 (22.4%) (6.1%) 14.9% 4.6%
28 New York 180.7 (21.5%) (5.9%) 60.1% 16.5%
29 Cleveland 103.0 (19.8%) (5.4%) 13.5% 4.2%
30 Chicago 121.8 (19.5%) (5.3%) 24.3% 7.3%
Average 130.3 (41.8%) (12.6%) 72.8% 16.5%
Runup: July 06 Peak vs. Jan 03Fallout: July 10 vs July 06 Peak
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30 MSAs
Worst-Performing MSAs July 10 RPI Jul 10
(Jan 2000=100) 4-Year Cumulative Annualized 3 1/2-Year Cumulative Annualized vs. Jan 03
1 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 87.2 (70.0%) (26.0%) 113.8% 28.0% (35.9%)
2 Stockton, CA 103.7 (65.9%) (23.6%) 90.0% 23.1% (35.2%)
3 Port St Lucie-Fort Pierce, FL 112.3 (58.9%) (19.9%) 106.1% 26.4% (15.3%)
4 Las Vegas 95.5 (57.5%) (19.2%) 87.9% 22.7% (20.1%)
5 Riverside, CA 132.2 (57.0%) (19.0%) 119.2% 29.0% (5.7%)
6 Phoenix 93.6 (55.3%) (18.2%) 78.5% 20.7% (20.2%)
7 Bakersfield, CA 135.2 (54.5%) (17.9%) 138.7% 32.6% 8.7%
8 Fresno, CA 146.4 (53.4%) (17.4%) 119.0% 28.9% 2.1%
9 Orlando, FL 115.0 (50.5%) (16.1%) 87.4% 22.6% (7.2%)
10 Sacramento, CA 140.0 (50.1%) (15.9%) 76.1% 20.1% (12.1%)
11 Miami, FL 135.6 (50.0%) (15.9%) 98.1% 24.8% (0.8%)
12 Lakeland, FL 106.7 (45.8%) (14.2%) 73.2% 19.5% (6.1%)
13 Boise City 104.6 (45.3%) (14.0%) 75.6% 20.0% (3.9%)
14 San Francisco, CA 146.1 (43.7%) (13.4%) 64.9% 17.6% (7.2%)
15 Tampa, FL 131.2 (41.0%) (12.3%) 74.3% 19.8% 2.9%
16 Ventura, CA 171.1 (40.1%) (12.0%) 88.3% 22.8% 12.7%
17 Sarasota, FL 142.9 (38.6%) (11.5%) 70.6% 18.9% 4.7%
18 San Diego, CA 171.9 (36.5%) (10.7%) 61.0% 16.7% 2.2%
19 Los Angeles, CA 191.8 (35.8%) (10.5%) 105.7% 26.4% 32.1%
20 Detroit 77.3 (34.9%) (10.2%) 3.1% 1.0% (32.9%)
21 San Jose, CA 134.2 (34.9%) (10.2%) 54.2% 15.1% 0.4%
22 Tucson 132.1 (32.1%) (9.2%) 66.7% 18.0% 13.2%
23 Minneapolis 127.3 (31.1%) (8.9%) 28.3% 8.4% (11.6%)
24 Jacksonville, FL 124.9 (30.9%) (8.8%) 49.8% 14.0% 3.6%
25 Providence 157.8 (29.5%) (8.4%) 49.3% 13.9% 5.2%
26 Washington DC 181.9 (26.7%) (7.5%) 90.1% 23.2% 39.3%
27 Atlanta 105.7 (22.4%) (6.1%) 14.9% 4.6% (10.8%)
28 New York 180.7 (21.5%) (5.9%) 60.1% 16.5% 25.7%
29 Cleveland 103.0 (19.8%) (5.4%) 13.5% 4.2% (8.9%)
30 Chicago 121.8 (19.5%) (5.3%) 24.3% 7.3% 0.1%
Median 131.7 (40.6%) (12.2%) 75.0% 16.9% 4.0%
National Median* 133.6 (17.5%) (4.7%) 46.2% 11.2% 20.6%
* Median of 60 markets
Fallout: Jul 10 vs July 06 Peak Run-up: Jul 06 Peak vs. Jan 03
43
Decline vs. Recovery
-0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%
Pea
k-t
o-T
rou
gh
Pri
ce D
ecli
nes
(C
um
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Pre-Peak Price Run-ups (Cumulative)
Sacramento
Riverside-CAPhoenix
MiamiOrlando
Bakersfield-CA
New York
Washington DC
Ventura-CA
Detroit
Chicago
Los AngelasSan Diego
Tampa
Cape Coral-FL
Las Vegas
Stockton-CA
Fort Pierce-FL
Fresno-CA
San Francisco
Cleveland
Altanta
Minneapolis
Boise City
Lakeland-FL
Sarasota-FL
TucsonSan Jose-CA
Jacksonville-FLProvidence
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FNC Residential Price Index
• The only national hedonic residential real
estate price index in production
• Uses all properties within a region
• Incorporates spatial relationships
• Can be constructed on smaller geographical
regions
• Can be constructed based on property
characteristics
45
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46
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