fms jim elliott flash aug 07 - ron maltiel semiconductor
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation AgendaPresentation Agenda
� Samsung Electronics Overview
� NAND Flash Evolution
� Flash Market Overview
� NAND Dichotomy: Disruptor + Enabler
� SSD Opportunity and Outlook
� Concluding Remarks
MCPMCPMCPMCPMCPMCPMCPMCP
MEMORYMEMORYMEMORYMEMORYMEMORYMEMORYMEMORYMEMORY 14 years14 years14 years14 years14 years14 years14 years14 years
DRAMDRAMDRAMDRAMDRAMDRAMDRAMDRAM 15 years15 years15 years15 years15 years15 years15 years15 years
SRAMSRAMSRAMSRAMSRAMSRAMSRAMSRAM 12 years12 years12 years12 years12 years12 years12 years12 years
NANDNANDNANDNANDNANDNANDNANDNAND 4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years
FLASHFLASHFLASHFLASHFLASHFLASHFLASHFLASH 3 years3 years3 years3 years3 years3 years3 years3 years
DDIDDIDDIDDIDDIDDIDDIDDI 4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years4 years
39%39%39%39%39%39%39%39%
11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11% 30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%
14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14% 30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%
11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11% 45%45%45%45%45%45%45%45%
60%60%60%60%60%60%60%60% 46%46%46%46%46%46%46%46%
16%16%16%16%16%16%16%16% 33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%
16%16%16%16%16%16%16%16% 22%22%22%22%22%22%22%22%
���� ����
Source : SECSource : SECSource : SECSource : SEC2 years2 years2 years2 years2 years2 years2 years2 years
Market Share % Growing
Samsung #1 Semiconductor Position(s)Samsung #1 Semiconductor Position(s)
#1 For
SEC Revenue and CAPEX OverviewSEC Revenue and CAPEX OverviewSEC Revenue and CAPEX Overview
Largest CAPEX in Semiconductor Industry: >$7B in 2007
New Austin Fab is Largest US Foreign Investment Ever…
41.8
5.6
55.2
7.4
56.7
9.9
63.2
10.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006
Revenue CapEx ($B)
$B
NAND Flash Evolution:Enabling New Market Creation
NAND Flash Evolution:Enabling New Market Creation
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
Cost Decreasing
~50% / GB / Year
NAND Cost/GB
Component Density, Gb
Density Increasing
2X per Year
NAND Flash Evolution:Enabling New Market Creation
NAND Flash Evolution:Enabling New Market Creation
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
Cost Decreasing
~50% / GB / YearDensity Increasing
2X per Year
USB Drive64MB ~ 4GBDSC Card
32MB ~ 4GB
MP3 Player512MB ~ 8GB
Cell Phone512MB ~ 8GB
SSD32GB ~ 64GB
NAND Fueling New Applications…
NAND Cost/GB
Component Density, Gb
Seasonal Imbalance Due to 2H CE Demand
Source: WSTS
NAND Industry Quarterly Revenue HistoryNAND Industry Quarterly Revenue History
$B
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Q/Q
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
NAND $ Q/Q Growth
1H 2H 1H 2H
Source : WSTS
NAND Application Trends: 2006NAND Application Trends: 2006
46%
23%
15%
8%8%
Card
MP3 & PMP
USB Drive
Phone
Other
20062006
2006 NAND Market
Dominated by Card and MP3: 70%
Over-dependence on CE, Black Friday…
Source : WSTS
NAND Application Trends: 2011NAND Application Trends: 2011
46%
30%
23%
15%
8%8%
13%
8%
27%
13%
9%
Card
MP3 & PMP
USB Drive
Phone
Other
20062006
20112011
2011 NAND Market
Market is Diversifying
PC Category Emerging
Less CE-centric
Reduced Seasonality
PC: SSD
SSD Will Dampen Seasonal Volatility…
NAND: Enabling as it Disrupts…NAND: Enabling as it Disrupts…Removable Storage: Floppy ���� USB
>10,000X Higher Capacity (1.44MB vs 16GB)
Faster Performance, Superior Industrial Design
MP3: µµµµHDD ���� NAND Superior ID � NAND Based MP3 now >85%
Phenomenal Segment Growth
Camcorder: Analog ���� Digital ���� NAND
Superior Industrial Design
Huge Potential Segment Growth…
Primary Storage: 100% HDD ���� SSDHigh Reliability, High Performance
Superior Industrial Design
Source: SEC
MP3: NAND Driving Category GrowthMP3: NAND Driving Category Growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Flash
HDD
M units13M
221M
- NAND Dominating MP3 Segment with Industrial Design- NAND MP3: More than 17X Growth in 7 Years
2005: Disruptive ID- Less Density: 6����4GB- Volume Inflection
4X Increase
Camcorder: Inflection Point with IDCamcorder: Inflection Point with ID
Analog Era
Beta
VHS � VHS-C
Total US Annual Sales:
3~5M / Yr
Digital Era
DVD
HDD
Total US Annual Sales:
3~5M / Yr
Solid State Era
NAND
NAND
NAND Catalyst:
Form Factor / ID, Mobility, Cost
Video Market Rapidly EmergingVideo Market Rapidly EmergingVideo Market Rapidly Emerging
� Camcorder is an Under-Capitalized Market
� Annual US Sales: 5M (vs 27M for DSC)
� US HH Penetration: 25% (vs 75% for DSC)
� Flat Sales Despite 25% Price Decline Since ‘01
� Online Video Capturing / Sharing Growth
� 122M Unique US Users Viewed Video Online in Jan ‘07
� Social Networking: >150M People by 2010…
0
50
100
150
200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
US Online Video Viewers (M)
Source: ComScore, eMarketer
“Jedi Knight” Video
Social Networking
Pure Digital- Flip Video Camcorder
#1 Best-Selling Camcorder at
30/60 Minutes of VGA Video: $129/$149
512MB, 1GB Embedded NAND
NAND + Video = SymbiosisNAND + Video = Symbiosis
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tape
DVD
HDD
NAND
3M
24M
SLR Point &Shoot
$437 $179
Still Camera:US Sales, ASP
5M
Traditional DVC
Point & Shoot Potential
Camcorder Projections:US Sales, ASP
$450 $129
Source: ComScore; eMarketer
Camcorder Storage Trends
Extrapolate
24M
Solid State Drive uses NAND Flash
Memory to Store Digital Data
Consists Entirely of NAND FLASH Memory.
Can Functionally and Physically Replace HDD.
The Next Killer App: SSD.Product Definition
SSD Benefits (1/2) SSD Benefits (1/2)
High ReliabilityHigh Reliability
• Resistance Against Extreme Impact:
1,500G ↑↑↑↑
• MTBF: 2M Hours
• No Mechanical parts
• No Noise, Virtually No Heat
• Light Weight
SSD Benefits (2/2)SSD Benefits (2/2)
Excellent PerformanceExcellent Performance
• Sequential Read Speeds:
57MB/s (PATA)���� 100MB/s (SATA-2)
• Sequential Write Speeds:
34MB/s (PATA)���� 80MB/s (SATA-2)
• Low Power Consumption:
Operation: 0.5W, Sleep: 0.06W
“The advantages of solid state storage became evident as soon as I turned on the machine…”
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270
(minutes)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
(seconds)
� SSD Optimizes Mobile User Experience
- Fast Booting / Resume / Application launching
- Longer battery life with SSD
PowerPoint(17MB, 135 slides)
Outlook(650 mails)
Searching filesincluding “a”
in C: Drive
Windows XP Boot
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
(seconds)
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270
(minutes)
Battery Life
Samsung Q1 Sony UMPC UX
1.8” HDDSSD 1.5x
2.3x
4.1x
2.9x
1.9x
3.5x
6.0x
3.8x
1.3x 1.2x
Source: Nikkei Electronics
1.8” HDDSSD
1.8” HDDSSD
1.8” HDDSSD
SSD User Benefits ComparisonSSD User Benefits Comparison
SSD is Ready for VistaSSD is Ready for Vista
� Window Express Index*
Standard Performance Diagnostic for Vista OS
System: Sony VAIO type G
CPU: Core Solo U1400(1.2 GHz),
OS: Windows Vista Business
SSD: 32GB, HDD: 1.8” 60GB
Test Environment
3.4
1 6.0
Primary Hard Disk Score
1.8” SSD
1.8” HDD
� Boot Time Comparison
All Task Tray Ready
1.8” HDD
1.8” SSD
Windows Front Page Appearance
50sec
1min 40sec
1min 30sec
3 min
�50% Improvement on Windows Front Page Appearance
�50% Improvement on All Task Ready Tray
(Source : Itmedia.co.jp)
5.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4200 5400 7200 10000 15000 SSD
PATA
SSD
SATA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
4200 5400 7200 10000 15000 SSD
PATA
SSD
SATA
Seagate Cheetah 15K.415000
Seagate Savvio 10K.110000
Hitachi GST Travelstar 7k1007200
Toshiba MK1032GSX5400
Hitachi GST Travelstar 4k1204200
DriveRPM
* HDD DATA
� HDD: Higher RPM = Higher Performance� Downside: Higher Power, More Heat
� SSD: Less Power, Cooler = Lifetime Energy Cost Savings
SSD Power Savings Comparison
Watts - Operation Mode Watts - Idle Mode
HDD RPM HDD RPM
Samsung SSD Form Factors
CustomUMPCDVC/GPS/
UMPC
Sub-Note / Tablet
NotebookMarket
Weight
Connector
Dimension
(H x W x T)
Density
TBD20gTBD46g44g
Standard FF
IDE 44pin
100.2x70x9.5
4~64GB
2.5’’
200pin
53.6x70.6x3.0
8~16GB
So DIMM
ZIF 40pin
70.6x53.6x:
3.0: 16/32GB
2.5: 4~8GB
4~64GB
SLIM
Special FF
4~16GB4~64GB
ZIF 35pinZIF/IDE 50pin
30x40x4.078.5x54x8.0
1.0’’1.8’’
SSD is Form-factor Agnostic…
Long-Term: New ID to Redefine Aesthetics
Addressing SSD F.U.D. FactorsAddressing SSD F.U.D. Factors
� Barrier #1:
“SSD Density Points are too Low”
� Barrier #2:
“SSD Costs too Much”
HDD Capacity GrowthHDD Capacity Growth
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: IBM, Intel, Samsung
2.5”
3.5”100GB
HDD MB per Platter
Increased 35M Times Over 35 years…
Diminishing Marginal Returns?
Who Wants to De-Frag 1TB?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Unique User Data
Office + Productivity
OS + Swap
How Much Storage is Needed?How Much Storage is Needed?
Why the Need for so Much Capacity?
Video Photos Music
% of HDD Capacity Used
Business Notebook Challenge…Business Notebook Challenge…
Jim Elliott’s Work Notebook� 17.5GB Used Total
� Windows XP + Office
� 6+ Years at Samsung
� Extensive Presentations
MIS Prefers:� Centralized Data Storage
HR Prefers:� No Personal Files: Video,
Music, Photos, etc.
64GB is Sufficient for Most
Business Notebooks
Source: Jim Elliott - June ‘07
“Hybrid” SSD Concept“Hybrid” SSD Concept
� Concept: Mixed Composition of SLC + MLC NAND
� Meet High Endurance Requirements for PC Storage
� SLC � Write-intensive data, High Performance
� MLC � Read-intensive data, Cost Reduction
SSD-Aware File System Driver
SLC MLC
Hybrid SSD
File Operation
Hot Data
(Write Intensive)
Cold Data
(Read Intensive)
Combo SSD System ArchitectureCombo SSD System Architecture
Price Impact:Up to 50% Reduction
Introducing “TCO” ConceptIntroducing “TCO” Concept
� Hybrid Automobiles
� Acquisition Cost is Higher, but…
� Total Cost of Ownership Benefits:
� Less Gas at ~$3.50 per Gallon
� “Solo” Carpool Lane � Time = $Money
� Prius is #1 in Santa Clara County
NYC Hybrid Cabs
SSD Business Notebook TCO SSD Business Notebook TCO
Source: McKinsey Study
Higher reliability
Higher performance
Other benefits
Benefits of SSD Laptops Actual NB Capacity Requirements
39% <20GB
18% 20-40GB
13% 40-60GB
29% >60GBAnnual HDD failure rate
Laptop Annual HDD Failures
18%
<5%
44%
5-10%
19%
11-20%
9%
21-30%
9%
>31%
Business Notebook: IT Survey Results
Pain Points:
HDD Field Failure Rates
Associated Downtime Costs
SSD Value Proposition:
Reduce TCO of Laptop Fleet
Improve Productivity
SSD Business Notebook TCO SSD Business Notebook TCO
Typical Corporate Notebook Scenario:1000’s of NB’s Deployed for Mobile Workforce50X Failure rate reduction over 3 years w/SSDEfficiency / Productivity GainsTCO Savings: Downtime, MIS, Data Recovery, etc…
Source: McKinsey Study
Higher reliability
Higher performance
Other benefits
Benefits of SSD Laptops Actual NB Capacity Requirements
39% <20GB
18% 20-40GB
13% 40-60GB
29% >60GBAnnual HDD failure rate
Laptop Annual HDD Failures
18%
<5%
44%
5-10%
19%
11-20%
9%
21-30%
9%
>31%
Business Notebook: IT Survey Results
Pain Points:
HDD Field Failure Rates
Associated Downtime Costs
SSD Value Proposition:
Reduce TCO of Laptop Fleet
Improve Productivity
SSD Business Notebook TCO SSD Business Notebook TCO
Typical Corporate Notebook Scenario:1000’s of NB’s Deployed for Mobile Workforce50X Failure rate reduction over 3 years w/SSDEfficiency / Productivity GainsTCO Savings: Downtime, MIS, Data Recovery
$110
$60HDD Failure
Reduction
Work Efficiency,Productivity
$300TCO Savings
$130CPU trade-off
Imm
ed
iate
Ben
efi
t
Lif
eti
me
Ben
efi
t
SSD TCO for NB, $
Source: McKinsey Study
Higher reliability
Higher performance
Other benefits
Benefits of SSD Laptops Actual NB Capacity Requirements
39% <20GB
18% 20-40GB
13% 40-60GB
29% >60GBAnnual HDD failure rate
Laptop Annual HDD Failures
18%
<5%
44%
5-10%
19%
11-20%
9%
21-30%
9%
>31%
Business Notebook: IT Survey Results
Pain Points:
HDD Field Failure Rates
Associated Downtime Costs
SSD Value Proposition:
Reduce TCO of Laptop Fleet
Improve Productivity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
HDD Based
MLC Based
Delta: ~10x
Comparing $70 NB Storage Budget:SSD Closing the GAP
Comparing $70 NB Storage Budget:SSD Closing the GAP
Avg GB
Delta: 3x
Delta: Insurmountable
Source: Citigroup, McKinsey
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
HDD Based
MLC with TCO
Comparing $70 NB Storage Budget:SSD Cross-Over Factoring $300 TCO
Comparing $70 NB Storage Budget:SSD Cross-Over Factoring $300 TCO
TCO Price Cross-Over!
Avg GB
Source: Citigroup, McKinsey
Wasted Biz NB Capacity; Functional
Cross-Over for <60GB~60GB is Sufficient For Most Business
NotebooksDelta: 2.5x
* Source : IDC (2006.12), SEC Marketing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NB Units
DT Units
PC Shipments, WW, M Units
NB Altering PC Market DynamicsNB Altering PC Market Dynamics
Notebook ASP: 50% more than DTSub $600 PC Category: > 50% by 2010Need Ways to Differentiate…
WW UnitCross-Over
RevenueCross-Over
‘07
‘11
NB Unit CrossoverJapan in ’06USA / EU in ’08BRIC: Later…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010
Gartner
iSuppli
FCR
WFR
* EDP Market ONLY
M Units,SSD
Mass Market• Some Desktop PC • Consumer NB
Premium Market • Mid ~ High-end NB• Ent. Server, Cache
Early Adopter Market• Business Notebook• Road Warrior…
SSD Market PotentialSSD Market Potential
$100M+
$2.5B+
$5B+
$1B+
SSD TAM:>100% Y/Y
~64GB SLC ~128GB Combo ~256GB Combo
� NAND Will Catalyze New Markets� Camcorder for Video
� SSD for Notebook, PC, Server / Cache
� New Markets Temper NAND Seasonality� Less Seasonality � Market Stability
� NAND Will Continue to Disrupt / Enable…� Higher Reliability
� Better ID / Form Factor
� Lower Power
� Superior Performance
� Extrapolate NAND Cost, Density Curves
Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts
NAND Value Prop
PC Storage Attribute ModelPC Storage Attribute Model
Entitlements
Needs
Wants
Source: John Squire, Founder of Conner Peripherals, 1989
Notebook Storage Attribute ModelNotebook Storage Attribute Model
Entitlements
Needs:
- NB is New Standard
- New Buying Criteria
- ID Key Differentiator
SSD Value Prop
Thank You!Thank You!